Kevin Schofield at the Sun has just tweeted out the latest YouGov Scottish polling from tomorrow morning’s Sun (£). Topline figures are YES 35%, NO 55%. Without don’t knows it works out at YES 39%, NO 61%. The fieldwork for the poll straddled the debate – just over half took place pre-debate.

39/61 is exactly the same as the last Scottish YouGov poll, but it isn’t directly comparable. There are two slight changes in YouGov’s Scottish methodology since the previous poll. The first is that the sample is extended to include 16 and 17 year olds – though this didn’t actually make any difference to the result.

The second is that YouGov have added an extra weighting variable, weighting according to people’s country of birth. For some reason raw samples seem to contain too many respondents who were born in England, and English born people are more likely to vote NO (Panelbase found the same, and also adopted place of birth as an extra weighting variable in their latest poll). This additional weight does makes a slight difference to final result, making the results slightly more “YES”. Under the old weighting scheme the results would have been YES 38%, NO 62%, a slight shift towards NO.


174 Responses to “YouGov/Sun Scottish poll”

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  1. CB11
    I can think of one LD supporter who would welcome Lady Warzi’s acquisition, but I think Richard in Norway is an ex-LD.

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  2. @couper2802
    I’m not up with Scottish polls, but percentages can have depend oddly on likely turnout. They may be %s of different things. For example UKIP’s very varied % results in different kinds of elections fit quite well with the idea of a constant level of support which votes but produces a smaller percent when the turnout is high.

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  3. Peter

    The swing back will begin in the Autumn when minds really focus on who leads. Ultimately enough of those now saying UKIP or labour will heave a disgruntled sigh and back Cameron. Achieving a majority is still not as likely as a similar outcome to 2010 but there is plenty of time.

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  4. Before Mark Simmonds there was Richard Body (about whom John Major said “Whenever I see him approaching, I hear the flapping of white coats”). MP from 1955, representing Holland with Boston/Boston & Skegness 1966-2001.

    Could Body be tempted to come out of retirement and stand as a Tory again? He resigned the whip under Major, defected to UKIP after leaving parliament, and has since joined the English Democrats.

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  5. @DAVE

    But that represents a swing of 7.5% Lab to SNP in the constituency vote and 12% Lab to SNP in the list vote since 2011 HR election. That doesn’t seem credible considering the Scottish Parliament is popular and the FM and DFM have positive approvals

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  6. “Donald Rumsfeld’s comment that “there are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” was quite a sensible assessment of such matters.”

    Do you have any polling evidence for that assertion ole nat or are you just expressing an opinion?

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  7. R&D

    :-)

    The answer to your question may be one of the “unknown unknowns”.

    Alternatively, it is an opinion solidly supported by the kind of correlative evidence much favoured by some on this site.

    Rumsfeld wanted to invade Iraq : the Labour and Tory parties followed him blindly along that path : most voters in the UK voted Labour or Tory : the British people can’t be wrong : Rumsfeld was right about Iraq. Ergo, Rumsfeld is always right.

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  8. Pressman

    “The swing back will begin in the Autumn when minds really focus on who leads.”

    I agree – people will start deserting Cameron in droves!

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  9. A swing from SNP to Labour immediately after the SNP leader was perceived to do badly against a leading Scottish Labour politician isn’t that unlikely, after all look at the Clegg effect!

    That fact that (So far) Darling isn’t standing for FM may well not register with many Labour voters.

    Lamonts profile isn’t even high in Scotland so I wouldn’t be surprised if people close to Darling are laying plans.

    A No vote, either Ed in No 10 but sticks with Balls or A Tory victory and Darling for FM might look attractive for many in Scottish Labour.

    He’d still have to get past Jim Murphy if he didn’t get a plum post from Ed or the Tories one in which case the key man would be Sir William Haughey, as he bankrolls Scottish Labour…. He who pays the piper.

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  10. Crossbat
    The SNP have always known a lot of their Scottish Parliament voters would vote no. This is precisely why so much of the emphasis has been on Labour voters. The SNP divide their voters in to Hamden voters and Murrayfield voters. The first type are visceral. They are in the bag. The second type is discerning and unreliable. Many will be content to vote for the SNP guaranteeing them low tax in a Scottish devolved parliament but less happy to chance separaton. But many other SNP voters are quite simply anyone but Labour or anyone but Tory depending on the area.
    At the last Scottish Parliamen election I was squashed in Aberdeen Donside but in fact had much the same vote as when Labour won the seat. Instead of some voting SNP, some Lib Dem and some Tory, they all voted SNP.

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  11. As the only party which has to be relevant in every election in GB, Labour always has plenty to worry about but the aftermath of the referendum will not only see the heart-searching amongst nationalists we are already seeing but if another referendum is off the radar an inescapable need to be clear as to whether the SNP is a right or left party.
    Either way it is likely to limit their support

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  12. “By the way, I’m starting a book on the future of Baroness Warsi. 3 to 1 she joins the Lib Dems before the election, 10 to 1 Labour after the election and 1500 to 1 Respect some time next week! Any takers??”

    —————

    What are the odds for her joining the Greens? Or UKip? Or the Tories…

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  13. “At the last Scottish Parliamen election I was squashed in Aberdeen Donside but in fact had much the same vote as when Labour won the seat. Instead of some voting SNP, some Lib Dem and some Tory, they all voted SNP”

    ———-

    Lol you seriously managed to unify the “anyone but Barney” vote there…

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  14. Sorry I have my swings the wrong way round they are off course SNP to Labour. Is a 7.5% and a 11% swing for Holyrood credible?

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  15. I was surprised by your description of the vote changes in Donside. Doesn’t seem to match what happened.

    The Tory vote actually increased. The LDs moved heavily to the SNP, but that happened across much of Scotland.

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  16. Carfew
    What can I say!

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  17. @ Candy on JB
    “Community” seems to have meant “insiders” who excluded anyone and everything that was different .”

    You summarise F. Parkin’s “closure theory”; [from Wiki]
    “the process by which social collectives maximize rewards by restricting access to resources and opportunities to a limited circle of eligibles”. Parkin derived this from Weber’s emphasis on status, to account for certain forms of social stratification — eg the subordination of women, non-whites, Catholics, — which a pure Marxian emphasis on class struggled to explain.

    As for epochs. We are programmed to think our youth is a time of exciting change & when older that the world is going to the dogs. But it is possible that social change is much faster in some eras. Q. Victoria’s moral ideas ruled my street in the 50s.The ’60s saw sudden challenges to “eternalised” repressive ideas about sexuality, race, the position of women, reproduction, abortion etc, which proved irreversible.
    You applaud modern tolerance — well the “olden days” of which so disapprove established the rules of the game.

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  18. @John B

    “Do you mean that being anti-Europe is not the same as being anti-EU? If so, then that would be a difficult thing to explain to the vast majority of people on the continent.”

    Actually a large number of people on the continent voted for parties that are anti or reformist when it comes to the EU. It’s really not that difficult to understand as a position.

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  19. NewThread

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  20. @RobbieAlive – you are correct that ideas about tolerance started in the mid-60’s, but they didn’t become practiced by everyone till the mid-90s, noughties and now. So it took about 30 years – at least a generation or two generations depending on when people had their families.

    But I freely acknowledge that your generation were splendid parents which is why my generation has turned out so well and Britain is a tranquil relatively crime-free place which is handling extraordinary change and stress in a way previous eras wouldn’t have managed! :-)

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  21. R&D
    “Most of the world is still living in the old day sadly”

    Most of the world is still living peacefully, caring for their families, but in relative poverty in conditions dictated by the need to produce and survive from hungry season to hungry season.
    There is a boring amount of evidence to show that relative but survivable poverty can with ease changed to destitution and suffering, and the destruction of families and communities.
    What”s changed, in recent decades, has been the degree to which this has been on spurious grounds traded by western politicians answering to domestic needs, “faith”, false intelligence and the demands of their own careers.

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  22. As an example of skulldudgery by the YES campaign, I report what I have just read in our local newspaper published today, August 14.

    There is a large headline and an opening paragraph: “”MSP Dennis Robertson has welcomed new polling evidence showing YES taking the lead in the North-east””

    This article quotes from the Survation poll published in the Mail on Sunday, but specifies August 3. It says 49% in NE Scotland will vote YES, 40% NO and 11% are undecided.

    I have looked at the Survation poll published last Sunday, August 10, and the breakdown of the polling for NE Scotland.

    This has YES 62 voters, NO 69 voters, undecided 17 voters, so 42% YES and 47% NO..

    It is a travesty to base a claim for now on voting before the TV debate. And having a panel of 144 voters for NE Scotland is quite insufficient to judge support here.

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  23. Sorry, I have muddled above the numbers for Likely to vote and All voters.

    So it`s 60 YES, 67 NO, 17 undecided, for Likely to vote
    And 62 YES, 69 NO, 14 undecided, for All voters

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  24. You have Referendum, then Holyrood Voting intention, then Holyrood Constituency Vote 2011 at top of tables. Is this Holyrood Voting intention the next election where is the breakdown of the referendum by party support?

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