The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

Most of the rest of the poll dealt with Boris Johnson’s planned return to Parliament. Dealing with the practical implications first, 35% think Boris should stand down as mayor if he wants to stand for Parliament, 54% think it is fine for him to do this at the same time as being Mayor. If he actually gets elected 60% think he should stand down as Mayor, in the event he becomes Tory leader 79% think he should resign as Mayor.

Looking forward to whether there is a vacancy, 44% of people think that David Cameron should resign as Tory leader if he loses the next election, only 29% would like him to stay (a majority of Tory voters would actually back Cameron staying on as leader after a defeat, though personally I can’t imagine it being an issue – I think he’d step down anyway). If David Cameron wins the next election then by 46% to 28% people would like him to remain for a full term, 80% of Tory voters would want him to serve a full term.

Were Cameron to go, Boris is the frontrunner to succeed him. 30% would back Boris as the best Tory leader, ahead of Theresa May on 16% and George Osborne on just 7%. Amongst Tory voters Boris leads Theresa May by 41% to 15%.

Asked which words best describe Boris Johnson likeable (34%), buffoon (32%), entertaining (31%) and intelligent (26%) come top. It’s unusual for any politician to have three positive words in the top four of a question like this, but it flags up Boris’s shortcomings too: statesmanlike (1%) and competent (7%) are down at the bottom of the list. In a separate question 36% think Boris Johnson would be up to the job of Prime Minister, 43% think he would not.

And what difference would Boris as leader actually make? Well, with all the usual caveats for questions like this (people are crap at answering hypothetical questions and have no idea what Boris would actually do and say as leader) it wouldn’t actually make much difference to voting intention at all. A control question asking how people would vote with the current leaders produces voting intentions of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%… with Boris as Conservative leader it would change to CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%.


109 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Bill P
    GW and the Hispanics?
    You are right to draw attention to the parallel. However Republican success in wooing Hispanic voters has been limited. They still split more than 2:1 to the Democrats. More worryingly for Republicans, the biggest and fastest -growing communities have the strongest proclivity to vote Democrat. The only ground for optimism would be the thought that a large proportion of new arrivals from South (rather than Central) America are born-again Protestants who are more likely to vote Republican.

  2. @ Howard

    Thank you for replying. I am one of 5 children – so I won’t wade through the interview.

  3. YouGov:

    NO – 55% (+1)
    YES – 35% (=)
    (DK) – 10% (-1)

    It’s over and done with, it’s over and done with – it’s over and done with, it’s over and done with.

  4. Old N
    As Ronald Reagan would have said, I am in danger of getting ahead of the truth! One aspect of these figures is though that Rebublicans (mainly) have been accused of dealing with the problem of piling up votes in areas of concentration by re-districting.
    What is happening at a regional level is the Republicans are not in a position to challenge as they once did in places like New York whilst demographic change is putting Democrats in challenging positions in areas once written off like Nevada. There is talk that impending doom, which has been the media portrayal of the Republicans since the rise of the Tea Party,may now be producing an un-expected lurch to the centre.

  5. @MrNameless

    “It’s over and done with, it’s over and done with – it’s over and done with, it’s over and done with.”

    ‘The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men
    Gang aft agley,
    An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
    For promis’d joy! ‘

  6. Barney

    :-)

    I’m not sure that re-districting is, even mainly, a Republican tactic. In many states, the Democrats are complicit partners in schemes to ensure districts which guarantee life-long careers for those gaining their party nomination.

    It may well be that the Tea Party will produce a slate of unelectable candidates for the Republicans. Time will tell (as someone around here is fond of saying!)

    I agree with you about the effect of demographic changes. In the UK too, it would seem reasonable to think that the increasing concentration of wealth and population in the South East of England might result in the Tories being more concentrated in that region than was formerly the case.

  7. @Oldnat
    “I agree with you about the effect of demographic changes. In the UK too, it would seem reasonable to think that the increasing concentration of wealth and population in the South East of England might result in the Tories being more concentrated in that region than was formerly the case.”
    ————————-
    Wise words IMHO. Longer term demographic change counts for more than short-term fluctuations.
    Err – put more simply we can’t see the wood for the trees? Or, as in the song, “We could see to Hackney Marshes – if it wasn’t for the houses in between”
    —————
    Nite nite all

  8. Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2), Con 33 (-3), LD 9 (=), UKIP 12 (+1), Oth 9 (+1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140811

  9. I would argue that Labour have a firm base of 30% going into next year and that they can be restricted to 31, 32 max.

    If Miliband gets 34, then he is becoming PM and that is not going to happen.

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