This morning’s Scottish Daily Mail has a new Survation poll of Scotland. Referendum voting intention figures with changes from last week are YES 37%(-3), NO 50%(+4), Don’t know 13%(-1). Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 43%(-4), NO 57%(+4). Tabs are here.

Survation are one of the companies that have tended to produce some of the better figures for YES. Their last three Scottish polls have shown figures of YES 47%, NO 53%. 43% is the YES campaign’s lowest score in a Survation poll since January, before Survation switched their weighting scheme to Holyrood recalled vote.

Normal caveats about any sharp movement in the polls apply, but this the first full natrep Scottish poll since the Salmond-v-Darling debate, so obviously people will look at that four point swing and conclude that the debate has indeed moved public opinion towards NO. I’d urge a little caution – as ever, it is just one poll, all polls have a margin of error, and when other post-debate polls come along they may or may not paint the same picture. This first bit of evidence though suggests the first debate has helped NO.


103 Responses to “Post-debate Survation poll shows swing to NO”

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  1. @ANTHONY WELLS

    “I really don’t know what to do about Scottish threads. It’s the most interesting bit of polling for the next month, yet a huge swathe of people seem to be completely incapable of discussing it without it becoming a partisan argument.”

    ——–

    Sometimes you don’t have to do anything. The recurring currency argument basically got put to bed for you last night, or at least it did until it got vaped; there are quite a few things that used to plague the board that don’t any more ‘cos they got put to bed.

    And it wasn’t partisan, it was just pointing out an inconsistency, and it was about polling, although perhaps one needs to spell it out more. In terms of polling, Darling scored a hit because the currency is not in the Yes campaign’s gift. But you can’t just leave it there, because then a natural reaction might be that it’s bullying etc. to deny the currency, hence fostering a VI reaction.

    Thus it may boil down in tbe eyes of Scots to whether it is reasonable for rUK to keep control of the currency. But if polling doesn’t ask the right questions, then we will wind up filling the gaps.

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  2. @ Anthony

    Thank you for your response. My apologies, I genuinely didn’t mean to niggle or score points. I was initially responding to a comment by Jim Jam regarding the referendum being about identity. Old Nat wasn’t commenting at that time. When he joined, I intended only to point out the factual gaps/ errors in Old Nat’s comments; I do that to lots of commentators – even the almost infallible Roger Mexico!

    But I will be even more cautious in the future when commenting on Scottish threads or just not comment at all because I don’t want to ‘spoil’ this site for others.

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  3. This may be a naïve sort of question but do the pollsters actually check that the people questioned REALLY intend to vote?

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