A quick update with our regular Monday polls from Populus and Lord Ashcroft:

Populus‘s topline figures today were CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%. Tabs are here.
Ashcroft‘s figures are CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.

Lord Ashcroft’s weekly polls are now pausing for the summer holidays, they are back on September 8th. I don’t know if Populus are doing the same (they often used to when they did telephone polls, but last year they continued with their online polls through the summer), certainly the daily YouGov polls will be rolling on as usual for August – they normally only stop for the Christmas and New Year period.


127 Responses to “Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. @MrNameless

    “Just as I was saying few right-wingers are not Pro-Israel, Sayeeda Warsi has resigned over government policy on Gaza.”

    Following straight on after the very strongly critical recent UN comments. criticism by EM, and to a lesser extent by Clegg, this could be difficult for Cameron. It gives the strong impression of him being out of touch with mainstream opinion.

    I doubt it’ll have any immediate impact on VI – but it might impact on his personal ratings.

  2. Best book?
    Line in the Sand is a recent big seller on sykes pecot etc.
    Russians in Israel?
    Sounds a little like Seamus Heaney’s description of Belfast protestants in the sixties as a penny halfpenny looking down n a penny.

  3. CANDY
    Perhaps you can draw on your knowledge of history in the region, which is much better than mine, to comment on the relevance of “the ending of the Ottoman Empire”, and what went before it, to Russian and more broadly Slavic attitudes to Islam, and thus to the influence of Russian immigres in Israel.
    I felt, when working in Bulgaria and neighbouring countries in the 90’s that their attitudes to “the Turks”, as it was commonly expressed, and its origins and aftermath were too little taken into account in the Balkans crisis and in Putin’s response to Chechniya.
    In Bulgaria the Sofia Church and others remain semi-subterranean because of the Ottaman diktat that no Christian church should overtop the mosques.
    The historical response to memories of the Ottamans is very deep-seated.
    An oddity, by the way, in the results of Soviet occupations and “technical assistance” in Islamic countries, including the Yemen, Afghanistan and Egypt, was the very visible emancipation of women, and equal work, including, in the Yemen, overall clad and bare- headed women busy on bulldozer maintenance, in their efforts to reform agriculture in the Yemen. Should we have paid for them to stay?
    Putin’s statement to resurgent Islamic fundamentalism in the Soviet Central Asian republics, or did i mishear it, “If you want to be circumcised, we’ll do it for you” could, of course, in the case of the Gaza crisis, be said to cut both ways.

  4. Deep South shift?
    If you read Caro’s volumes on LBJ, it is striking that the areas in the south and west which turned republican were the areas clamoring in his time for massive state assistance for infrastructure. Once they got it they wanted to cut federal spending!
    Population change though is shifting Texas towards the Democrats and this may be irreversible.

  5. If Texas goes Democrat and California, New York and Florida stay with them, then the USA will become a one-and-a-half party state. While I vote for the Democrats, this is a dangerous thing for democracy, and is why the USA needs electoral reform.

  6. Circumcision by Putin?
    The son of the founder of the CPGB, Andrew Rothstein, made his protest about Krystalnacht by getting himself circumcised at the German embassy clinic by a Nazi doctor. Thats what I call brave.

  7. Mr N
    There is little doubt what you say is true but I think a serious change in the system for electing the President would require a change in the constitution and this would in practice be all but impossible.

  8. @Barney Crockett

    Actually, it’d only require the agreement of enough states with enough electoral votes, and approval by congress, because allocation of the electoral voters can be dictated by a inter-state compact approved by the senate. But this is only a marginally easier bar than that of getting an amendment.

  9. Jayblank
    Thanks Interesting. But as you describe it, infeasible I would say.

  10. @Barney Crockett

    There’s already an inter-state compact that’s been agreed to by some states, and it’s been slowly ratcheting up towards the magic number of EVs that allow those states to select the winner of the election based on the national popular vote. However, it’s taken 8 years to get 61% of the way to that number, and they’d need to get some of the states that would seem very unlikely to agree at the moment.

    Oddly enough, in polling, it gets overwhelmingly huge cross-party popular support, and on those grounds may well breeze through congress. It’s the state-legislatutres and governors that have been the problem.

  11. BC
    “Belfast protestants in the sixties as a penny halfpenny looking down on a penny”

    This imagery could not register with me. Perhaps you could spell it out Barney.

  12. Ah, I’ve clocked it.

    My FIL who was taken prisoner while fighting in the desert, said of Arabs and Israelis ‘they got nothing and they fight about nothing, scratching a living in the sand’.

  13. Howard
    It is poetic! But the image is of people with almost nothing looking down on those with even less. The relevance is that the fear of being overtaken by another poor group is often the spur to oppression and hatred. LBJ who I mentioned earlier told his friends that he did not support civil rights to help african americans but because his own scots american hill people would never take the road to advancement for as long as they could look down on a group even poroer than them.

  14. BC
    You see I awoke a bit late on. Much the same can be said about working class attitudes to ‘benefit scroungers’. Yes, going back to points AW made about voter motivation, envy and disdain are probably factors of great influence.

  15. Since when did criticism from Clegg amount to pressure? And I say that as someone who will vote Lib Dem in 2015 if (and only if) the Watford candidate is who I think it will be.

    As for the “one and a half party state” comment, surely that refers to a system in which while there is an established second party, they are not seen as a credible government in waiting? Electoral reform could force a country into a permanent state of either coalition or consensus-seeking minority government, but far better would be if a way were found to negate the electoral necessity of style over substance.

  16. @” ‘they got nothing and they fight about nothing, scratching a living in the sand’.”

    Except their land, and their livelihoods, and their families & their children & their future.

    What a bloody silly comment from someone from a foreign country who didn’t want to be there anyway.

  17. COLIN, HOWARD, BARNEY.
    Seamus Heaney was from Derry/Londonderry.

    The context was the One Man One Vote campaign.

    The Ulster Unionist Party in Northern Ireland opposed Universal Suffrage.
    Voting qualifications were based on property ownership.

    Thus the Unionist working class, according to the analysis, were supportive of the Unionist Party leaders, who tended to be upper middle class or Aristocracy.
    Heaney was pointing out that these ‘protestant’ workers were also deprived in many cases of the right to vote. However, they still felt able to look down upon their neighbours.

    To his eternal credit it was Ted Heath who brought OMOV to Northern Ireland,, and thus lost power in 1974. He would have had the largest party behind him if he had not.

  18. The Northern Ireland Government exercised her right to opt out of the 1965 Race Relations Act.
    The right to opt out had been put into UK Law by Parliament under the Attlee Government. 1948 Government of Northern Ireland Act.

  19. CHRIS

    My second favourite poet-and a lovely man.

  20. The surprisingly good JULY Services PMI is yet another indicator of capacity constraints appearing.

    Upward pressure on wages specifically identified.

  21. @BC & Mr N

    I believe some early experiments with voting reform in some parts of the USA were struck down as unconstitutional but changes to how “electoral college delegates” are elected are to some extent up to the state. If Texas seemed to be swinging to the Blues the Reds might choose to change the election system to give them at least some representation.

    Failing that the party would just have to detoxify itself. Sarah Palin could surely shoot a polar bear, but would she hug a hoodie?

  22. Maybe if she was a bit less trigger happy the polar bear could do it for her?

  23. Anthony,

    Any plans for instant polling during tonight’s debate…..it is after all only the future of Britain that is at stake!

    Peter.

  24. Peter – nope, no instant poll tonight (or at least, not from YouGov – other companies may be doing one).

  25. Ashcroft is hinting Liam Fox might replace Warsi. Why is the Tory Party’s right wing in the ascendent at the moment? Is it so they don’t cause Cameron too much trouble?

  26. @ChrisLane

    Can’t find this Government of NI act 1948. There’s the NI act 1947, but I don’t see any clause that looks like what you’re saying. Do you have a link?

    Quite right about the LibDem figure today BTW.

  27. PCairns

    Future of Britain at stake eh? My goodness.

    I suppose some may claim that Lady Warzi’s resignation turns what I predicted was a non-event, here in UK, (Gaza), into one.

    I don’t think it will make any difference at all. It does not involve us (enough, yet).

  28. Liam Fox is very close to the US and Israel.

    See this about ‘The Atlantic Bridge’.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Atlantic_Bridge

  29. Ashcroft is hinting Liam Fox might replace Warsi. Why is the Tory Party’s right wing in the ascendent at the moment? Is it so they don’t cause Cameron too much trouble?

    If David Cameron wants to woo back ex-Tory UKIP voters, Liam Fox would be a good choice.

    I have always considered him to be a bit like Keith Joseph. He was never going to seriously electable at the top table, but could be ideologically significant in the background.

  30. “Ashcroft is hinting Liam Fox might replace Warsi. Why is the Tory Party’s right wing in the ascendent at the moment? Is it so they don’t cause Cameron too much trouble?”

    That would be my guess: it seems a foregone conclusion that Cameron’s successor will be to the right of the party, and therefore the way to ensure that his departure is at a time of his choosing (should he remain Prime Minister in 12 months’ time) is to get the main candidates in his cabinet and hope the Tory declines after previous coup attempts against a sitting PM are enough to scare anyone else off.

  31. Liam Fox back at the helm? Good bye to any prospect of a Tory government after the 2015 GE.

    As for tonight’s debate, it seems to me unlikely to be either groundbreaking or decisive. It won’t be groundbreaking because Salmond is stuck in the economic questions of his own making, and it won’t be decisive because the ‘decisive’ has either already happened (NO will win) or a Yes vote is going to creep up on us via the dozens of local meetings going on around the country.

    In other words, this tv debate is not going to change the mood of the country. Alex Salmond is too unpopular with too many. What is really needed is a debate between two leading non politicians. Such as? Ah…… there’s the rub.

  32. @John B

    Liam Fox back at the helm? Good bye to any prospect of a Tory government after the 2015 GE.

    He certainly won’t attract many Lib Dems of Labour voters.

  33. Correction

    @John B

    Liam Fox back at the helm? Good bye to any prospect of a Tory government after the 2015 GE.

    He certainly won’t attract many Lib Dem or Labour voters.

  34. @CMJ

    You were understandable the first time!

    I cannot imagine Liam Fox attracting anyone who wasn’t already committed to the Tory or UKIP cause. And the Tories didn’t win last time round even when UKIP were a small group; what chance when they’re getting c. 15% of the vote? Are any Kippers going to believe that Fox can achieve what others of his ilk have failed to achieve – a really convincing anti-EU position from DC?

  35. Liam Fox replacing Sayeeda Warsi … wrong on so many levels :)

    He’s a(nother) hawkish, white, middle aged man, with which the cabinet is famously over-endowed. His replacing the only female, Muslim BME Tory who resigned on a matter of principle over Gaza would emphasise that the modernisation programme is dead.

    More importantly, Fox has probably burnt his (Atlantic?) bridges with Cameron. He rather vainly turned down the minister of state at the FCO just last month. Would replacing Warsi not be similarly infra dig? I understand the comparison with Keith Joseph, but Joseph had serious intellectual weight, something I believe no-one has ever accused Fox of.

    In and of itself, Warsi’s departure won’t affect Con VI. But it does nothing for widening the appeal of the Tory brand.

  36. And Warsi’s parting shot (last couple of lines of her letter) reminded DC of the need for the Tories to make an appeal to all the diverse communities in Britain. No UKIP message there, of course, but a reminder that the Tories cannot win a GE now without the support of that considerable part of ‘Middle England’ which has an Indian sub-continent inheritance.
    Until the small shopkeepers (of Napoleonic fame) and the middle and higher echelons of the NHS see the Tories as their natural home DC is never going to get anywhere.

  37. Amber – thanks for your answer just read as i have been away.
    Things moved on so i will leave there.

  38. @John B

    I have a completely different take on the debate. AS planned the debate for this date and it is the starting gun of the campaign proper. This is the most important debate ever in Scottish history and what is said tonight will determine the parameters in which the campaign is fought over the next 6 weeks.

    I know fellow UKPR folk will want to follow it live and they can on STV Player. I hope they do for an unbiased verdict and it is not just the usual suspects slugging it out later tonight.

    There is an Ipsos-Mori poll which will be announced prior to the debate. There are a lot of complaints about that given they are a very no friendly pollster And people think it is strange to have a poll prior to the debate. Generally the Yes camp do not trust the media and are sure that whatever happens in the debate the headlines will be ‘Disaster for Salmond’.

    It will be interesting to get the viewing figures.

    @John B I don’t know why you think Salmond is so disliked. He won a majority, won the EU election mid-term and has a positive approval rating.

  39. Whilst I am denigrating the idea that some events are not so, I wonder if the pathetic Ecclestone affair could worm its way into voters’ minds.

    Certainly, I think LD to Lab deserters would be grateful for some form of reassurance from the present Lab leader that the Blairite era is over, thinking back to that particular debacle.

    These voters are essential for Miliband to hold.

  40. Be careful Howard.

    I’m sure Mr Ecclestone has some very sharp lawyers….

  41. I think Warsi’s departure will at least slightly reduce the Tory VI, perhaps even more so due to the reaction to her resignation – an Asian woman resigning on a matter of principle being attacked by a load of right wing, white, older men will not go down well with sections of the electorate.

  42. Amber and Jim Jam

    Mrs H I had a very good friend who had lived on a kibbutz and with whom we had frequent conversations about the developments in Israel from, say, 1960-ish to 1980. She was very critical of the ‘dissipative’ nature of the groups within Israeli society and the constant international churn thereof (of which she was an example).

    I just want to assure you that some of us are reasonably knowledgeable about many of the issues, but we choose not to express them (at least here). I was grateful for the various contributions made here however, one can always learn.

    I just don’t see the issue making an impact here, politically.

  43. I really don’t know what the fuss is about. Most Labour supporters on this site would not give Wasi the time of day until this resignation. The Jews have taken their right to live and survive in a homeland to an extreme. This, based on the happenings of 70 or 75 years ago. (A good job the tragic Poles don’t take the same view). Hamas, constantly goad the Israelis regardless of the cost to their own women and children. They are at least 50% to blame for the appalling situation in godforsaken Gaza. Quite what those who carry the conscience of the entire world on their shoulders, think the likes of Cameron, or any other European leader can actually do, whilst this insoluble issue plays its self out on the airwaves, I cannot understand.

  44. CMJ
    Except on one occasion, concerning a certain press lady, from whose possible ire, Anthony and Colin protected me, I am usually careful.

  45. ROLY

    I thought Hammond was good today-look, we have a cease fire, withdrawal & talks-and I’m told I should have engaged in “megaphone diplomacy”.

    That was the gist of it anyway.

  46. @Couper2802

    Yes, of course AS has won elections, and he has positive numbers on his performance as FM – and rightly so. But that doesn’t make him the sort of person who can appeal at the emotional level beyond those who are already with him.

    My chief complaint with AS is that he has allowed economic issues to dominate, rather than cultural ones, and in doing so has allowed the NO campaign to point to all uncertainties whereas he himself has not been forceful enough in pointing to the equally big uncertainties on the future of the UK.

    All this may now change in the run-up to the vote. But I was recently at a meeting where Tommy Sheridan spoke – and although I cannot go along with everything he said, he expressed a passion for Scotland which AS and others in the SNP leadership often fail to communicate – because they want to be seen as ‘a safe hands’ and ‘on top of the issues’. They are very much seen as safe hands – safer than the Lamentables at any rate – and they are on top of the economic issues on the whole, although the commitment to sterling was not, imo a good decision – but people want to know that this vote matters at a level far deeper than just how much money you have in your pocket.

    Until it becomes apparent to all that this referendum is not primarily about economic issues but about Scotland as a political and cultural reality quite distinct from England, and that this reality is under constant threat from England’s assumptions about what the UK is (unacknowledged or even subconscious assumptions though these be), Yes cannot win.

    Two examples regarding the threat which come from BBC coverage of the Commonwealth Games (which was, on the whole, reasonably good): Clair Balding talking about “our netball team” when she meant the English netball team and English athletes talking about Glasgow as ‘home turf’. If the reader of this cannot see the problem, that just proves my point.

  47. @Paul a
    I think you are quite wrong. The majority of people in this country are sick of having their TV screens filed with images of Muslims trying to slaughter each other, or Jews, or us. Only the propaganda of the BBC and the basic inertia of the British keep things as jogging along.

  48. @colin
    You may recall Colin, that my boy is an army officer. He thinks that Hammond was a hard nosed and sharp Barsteward when min of defence, certainly he will not be messed about. But, what can he do ?

  49. JOHNB

    @”Until it becomes apparent to all ”

    You mean-until everyone agrees with you?

    Which they might not-they might in fact think that “economic issues” are the key ones , and how much money will I have in my pocket if we leave?

    And on the Commonwealth Games, I thought the crowds-particularly in the athletics stadium , showed what a pathetic quibble your criticism of Balding is.

    They cheered excellence & talent.
    They cheered all the famous names.
    They sang to Usain Bolt.
    They cheered any UK athlete.
    They burst out in her favourite song for their own poster girl-Eilidh Child & kept it going till she finished her emotional lap of honour.

    I think your Scottish Commonwealth Games supporters got it just right-they were stars .

  50. @RH

    Fine, except that the TVs have been filled with pictures of Palestinian Arabs (both Muslim and Christian) being slaughtered by Israel.
    The simplistic approach taken by France and Britain after the First World War seems to live on in the mindset of so many in the ‘West’, who fail to show any greater understanding now of the complexities of the Middle East than did their forefathers in the middle ages.

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