A quick update with our regular Monday polls from Populus and Lord Ashcroft:

Populus‘s topline figures today were CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%. Tabs are here.
Ashcroft‘s figures are CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.

Lord Ashcroft’s weekly polls are now pausing for the summer holidays, they are back on September 8th. I don’t know if Populus are doing the same (they often used to when they did telephone polls, but last year they continued with their online polls through the summer), certainly the daily YouGov polls will be rolling on as usual for August – they normally only stop for the Christmas and New Year period.

127 Responses to “Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. @Paul a
    I think you are quite wrong. The majority of people in this country are sick of having their TV screens filed with images of Muslims trying to slaughter each other, or Jews, or us. Only the propaganda of the BBC and the basic inertia of the British keep things as jogging along.


    And don’t forget Northern Island until recently was full of Christians killing each other.

  2. @Colin

    You have just proved my point.You don’t see how the unconscious assumptions of the English cause such hurt and distress to those of us who ask only that we treated as equals.

  3. I have just had an agent from Ipsos Mori visit. My first experience of being canvassed by any polling company. When we reached the question which party would I vote for if there was a general election tomorrow we entered into a discussion and the agent expressed his views and views that are prevalent in my locality. If this is a common practise it could influence polling outcomes. How common is this?

  4. ROLY

    I think one of the telling things about the latest incursion by Israel ( whatever one thinks of it) , is the deafening silence of the neighbouring Arabs.

    Egypt hates Hamas & wants them gone. Their border is closed.
    The Saudis dislike them-Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, leader of Israel’s oldest and most implacable foe, called the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza a “collective massacre” caused by Hamas. !
    . Syria & Iraq are imploding as militant Islam creates the new Caliphate.

    I think Israel’s “boldness” in the recent response to rockets & tunnels is not unconnected to Arab quiescence

  5. JOHNB

    I detected no “hurt” amongst the thousands of Scots I refered to.

  6. John B, that the English may be comfortable considering Scotland part of ‘home turf’ (aka ‘the UK’) while Scots cannot say the same about England…actually says more about Scots than it does about the English.

  7. John B

    English athletes talking about Glasgow as ‘home turf’. If the reader of this cannot see the problem, that just proves my point.

    But it’s not a problem. The various constituent parts of the British Isles, including Ireland, have long been referred to as the ‘Home Nations’, irrespective of the current constitutional relationships. There are shared geographic, linguistic and cultural ties and a common travel area. People from one of them feel no more alien in Dublin or Glasgow or Cardiff or Manchester. And all that will continue whatever happens in the referendum or afterwards.

    Of course it’s true that many in the media show a shocking ignorance about how things operate outside their own tiny world. But the intense parochialism of the Westminster Bubble applies to the rest of England as well.

  8. Roger Mexico,

    “But it’s not a problem.”

    Quite so. I don’t like the idea that I can’t go down to England and consider myself to be on “home turf”.

  9. I really mustn’t get sucked into this Commonwealth Games discussion, except to say that if Claire Balding is on her home turf in Glasgow I’m glad for her to stay there.

  10. I’ll steer clear of the prior debate about home turf too, because I think the discussion from all sides is in danger of crossing the thin line between “opinionated but attempting to approach the issue impartially”, into “partisan comment”

    But I think as far as the Games’ effect on the polls is concerned, both camps need to tread a very fine line. Any bounce from those games will be whatever it will be and stick or reverse without much involvement from politicians or avid supporters of a particular cause. One side overtly attempting to capitalise on or dismiss any such swing in the polls will probably backfire on them.

  11. Roger Mexico

    Agree with most of that, but perhaps people like you and me, who don’t live in England (and you don’t even live in the UK, though the supporters cheered your folk as much as those from others in these isles – and far beyond), perhaps shouldn’t be so offensive to the people of England as to suggest that their parochialism is equivalent to that of the Westminster Bubble.

    There are many more English people than Scots or Manxmen, who pay licence fees to the BBC, so the BBC coverage of the Games was balanced to its audience (though not to those who had actually paid for the Games).

    The crassness of English presenters using “we” and “us” of the English team, when broadcasting to the whole of the UK and the Crown Territories, and not just England (where the terms would be perfectly valid) should not be assumed to suggest that people in England are equally rude. I’ve never found that to be the case.

    Most of the complaints that I have heard of the BBC coverage is not about the London output itself, but that we were paying to see it, rather than BBC Scotland providing more coverage from a Scottish perspective.

    Those who didn’t attend any of the Games themselves, but simply watched them all on BBC TV should not be so certain that there was particular support for “UK” athletes in particular. you were only seeing that selection of images that the BBC provided – not unexpectedly from a “UK” perspective.

    There were more supporters from the Home Nations there than from the other states of the Commonwealth, so unsurprisingly, their athletes had more supporters in the stadium.

  12. As 15% of Scots choose to live in England, presumably they regard it as home turf too.

  13. STV Player seems to be coping alright with Emmerdale (I on the other hand am not).

    Wonder if it will start lagging at around 19:56…

  14. Anecdotally People were really annoyed with the BBC coverage. People on Twitter, family members and folk in shops etc Most conversations included a moan about the BBC. The biggest complaints were: always interviewing the English athletes and ignoring the Scots and referring to the Scottish competitors as ‘they’ English as ‘we’. And going on and on about London 2012 – One comment was ‘London 2012 is the new 1966’.

    I am not sure if it makes a polling difference as Scots are used to it. But not using our own broadcaster (STV, BBC Scotland) which for the rest of the UK would have been a change – reinforces the ‘too wee, too poor, too stupid’ meme.

  15. Tony Cornwall – I don’t think that sort of thing should happen at all. You should probably report it to Ipsos MORI.

    That said, MORI no longer actually use face-to-face interviewing for voting intention, so it’s quite strange you were asked. Perhaps it’s for use as a cross-break (or perhaps they keep asking it for the issues monitor so as to keep the question completely consistent, even though the f2f voting intention is no longer used)

  16. Is that really true that they said ‘we’ about the English on BBC (note the initials)? Hilarious. We are dealing with *sports* commentators, so not much else should be expected.

  17. “And don’t forget Northern Island until recently was full of Christians killing each other.”

    One has to careful with language…. nearly full of people who were against such murders more likely.

    But, as I have mentioned a few times, any divisions based on “faith” – which is open to wild interpretations – is fraught with problems.

    Impossible to really resolve or compromise when both sides [all sides] “know” they are the true believers and recipients of wisdom.

    Take it away and it is easier to work towards pragmatic solutions: but I’ll be a long time dead and it will still be getting worse.

  18. Howard

    I’m afraid so. Not everyone finds it hilarious, But as Couper2802, it’s unlikely to make much of a polling difference by itself. It’s a characteristic that we are well used to.

  19. For the debate, people can always play the Guardian’s drinking game.


    I’m not sure that any such debate should start with the results of an opinion poll!

  20. Not sure if this will count as impartial, but I would like to angrily note that STV Player has failed me already, when for comparison I have never had more than minor issues with BBC iPlayer. I’ll throw caution to the wind in blaming Salmond personally.

  21. ChrisHornet


    Twitter says it’s working again.

  22. Eoin Clarke was mentioned recently. I found hid polling analyses most interesting and helpful on here and he was a valued correspondent. I did enjoy his discussions with Rob Sheffield. I mention this because I did hold a brief correspondence with both him and his wife. They were a ‘cross’ marriage’ and what they told me about how they had to keep low during this time of year was quite horrendous to read.

    I hope Anthony will not mind me hoping they and their family are both well.

  23. @ Howard

    Your comment speaks volumes – very much to your credit if I may say so.

    The difficulties of a ‘cross marriage’ in that culture were also shocking to me, as someone living within spitting distance of Brighton, where almost anything goes without criticism. I also wish them well.

  24. @rosieanddaisie

    Worth ten minutes of your time perhaps:


  25. the libdem polling figures continue to be dire it seems to me the libdems have decided as a party to adopt the lemming mentality and all jump off the cliff together As for labour milliband will pull his rabbit out of the hat in the shape of alister darling back as shadow chancellor if I was George Osborne I would be very worried indeed this will take place in millibands autumn reshuffle and will show how ruthless and strong he can be wonder what murdochs cronies will make of that tee hee

  26. Nottsdave

    I think you right when (if) Alister Darling saves the Union where as DC nearly gave it away (by agreeing to exclude the Anglo-Scots from the vote) he will deserve some high reward, past and future chancellor might do it.

    Did you really say in a earlier post you would like the EU in charge of foreign policy and DEFENSE. This is your vision of a independent Scotland new role in the World. I hear my warrior forefathers both Scottish and English scream from the graves in defiance. Better together, bloody right.

  27. I apologies to AW in advance for continuing the Israel / Hamas debate on this post.
    A poster called Jack chose to remind me about (so called) Christians in the North of Ireland, killing each other in the recent past. I had made the point that a majority of the British Public are pig sick of watching Muslims killing each other along with Jews and Christians, night after night on their TV screens. Jack says this is “DRIVEL”, therefore, what have we been watching in Egypt, Libya, North Africa and now Gaza for the last two years ?
    With regard to Northern Ireland, due to my service career in the British Army, I probably did more foot patrols in Belfast and South Armagh, than “Jack” has had hot dinners.

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