There are three polls in the Sunday papers today – GB polls by YouGov and Opinium, and a new Scottish poll by Survation.

YouGov in the Sunday Times have tables here. Topline voting intention is CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. The main part of the poll deals with Ed Miliband’s image, following his speech at the start of the week. As we know from countless other polls, Miliband’s ratings on best PM, being up to the job being a strong leader and so on are poor. The questions today were prodding at whether that is indeed something to do with “image” or even “looks” (I say “prodding” – I don’t think it’s really possible to answer the question conclusively).

Asked whether each man has the right policies or looks the part of PM Ed Miliband narrowly leads Cameron on policies: 38% think Ed Miliband has the right policies, compared to 32% who think David Cameron has the right policies. On looking and sounding like a Prime Minister 57% think Cameron looks the part, only 13% think Ed Miliband does. Of course, it easier to look like a Prime Minister when you actually ARE Prime Minister, but that doesn’t explain the gulf between the men’s ratings – YouGov also sometimes ask a question about the opposition leader “looking like a PM in waiting”. Ed Miliband tends to score around 20% or so, when Cameron was leader of the opposition he scored up in the forties.

Ed Miliband’s negative rating do not seem to be due to physical attractiveness, it’s not a case of Miliband being “too ugly” as John Humphrys once put it, as quite frankly neither of them are seen as attractive. Only 6% think Ed Miliband is attractive, but only 16% think David Cameron is. However asked if they physically look like a credible national leader Ed Miliband scores only 15%, David Cameron scores 55%. Clearly looking like a credible leader is not the same as looking physically attractive.

Does this matter at all? Well, the large majority of people say it SHOULDN’T matter – 80% said it shouldn’t matter much or shouldn’t matter at all when it comes to how the public vote at a general election. However, in practice people think it DOES – 55% think it actually does matter a lot or a fair amount. I suspect they are correct. I doubt very many people consciously sit down and think “I don’t think they’d make a good Prime Minister because they are funny looking”, but psychologically we all have many prejudices and biases about people based upon what they look and sound like. Unavoidably our views of politicians will be skewed by our gut impressions of their appearance – and the less closely people follow politics the more important those gut instincts and prejudices probably are.

And, my usual caveat about the Ed Miliband paradox: Labour are still in the lead. If people do think Ed Miliband doesn’t look like a leader, he hasn’t suddenly started looking that way; he’s unlikely to start looking less “leadery” as the election approaches. It’s already there in the price and it hasn’t stopped Labour being ahead in the polls. That doesn’t mean his image isn’t a negative for Labour (they could be further ahead without the problem), but it does mean Miliband as leader is not incompatible with Labour winning. The question, which I don’t think is currently answerable (except through wishful thinking one way or the other), is whether or not public perceptions of the opposition leader may become more salient as the election approaches and it becomes not just a judgement on the government, but a choice between two alternative governments.

Moving on, Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer also has a three point Labour lead. Topline figures are CON 32%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 15%(-2), GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

Finally Survation have a new Scottish poll, which shows very little change on their previous. Topline referendum voting intentions are YES 40%(-1), NO 46%(nc), Don’t knows 14%(+1). Excluding don’t knows it’s YES 47%, NO 53%, the same as Survation’s last poll. Tabs are here

The poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday so while it isn’t the first “post-Commonwealth Games” poll, it’s the first poll where we can really look for a Commonwealth Games effect. Thus far there’s no obvious sign of one.


206 Responses to “Sunday’s polls – YouGov, Opinium and Survation”

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  1. @ candy
    Your post is very persuasive. You have identified the problem – where should a jewish homeland be? The whole question was not settled properly in 1948.

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  2. @OldNat

    It depends how many Labour voters end up voting Yes. If Yes wins I can see them voting Labour in GE15 reasoning that negotiating with a Labour govt would be easier than a Tory one. If No wins they will not want to reward Labour for thwarting them so will vote SNP in GE15.

    Labour are in danger of losing up to a third of their voters. The Scottish loses could deprive Labour of largest party or their majority. I think Cons have made this calculation. The Cons only have one WM seat to lose. The Cons must be chuckling with glee getting Labour to compromise their vote.

    Labour IMO are currently making a mistake by calling all Yes voters ‘nationalists’. They are making it very party political and driving Labour supporters who are Yes to the SNP. They don’t seem to see the danger for GE15 but I am pretty sure their vote will be well down if they carry on as they are.

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  3. @Couper2802

    I think you’re being a little too simplistic. The No vote (45-55?) will lead to major soul searching. But then we need to look forward, not only to the GE 2015, in which Labour may win a small majority, but also to a vicious 2016 Holyrood election campaign in which Labour will be battling under the heavy burden of continuing the Tory/LD cuts in Westminster.
    I cannot see Labour regaining power in Holyrood in 2016.

    And if Labour do not win in 2015, and the Tories return to power then the SNP will be able to say “We told you so”. No-one who votes No will have the right to complain about who rules from Westminster.

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  4. I would like to think that the Tories wouldn’t secretly hope Scotland separates just in order to kneecap the Labour Party. Conversations with Tory members have given me the feeling that my hopes may be misplaced.

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  5. Mr N

    English & Welsh Tories, i presume you mean? Up here, constituencies like Jim Murphy’s would be natural Tory seats (as once they were).

    We have a fair number of Tories in Scotland – some of them even vote Conservative!

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  6. From Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph today

    “America is piling on jobs…but wages are continuing to lag inflation”

    Same as the UK.

    “with US wages growing just 2pc, slightly below the official inflation rate and quite a long way below many people’s own personal experience of inflation. ”

    Ditto

    This is the US now

    “Median US earnings have been stagnating or falling in real terms for many years now, a phenomenon that long pre-dates the financial crisis.”

    And the UK’s future?

    “if you have high technical, engineering or managerial skills, you’ll do well”

    That is a small number of people.

    “If you have none of these things, you’ll be progressively squeezed, with growing competition for scarcer, low-skill work.”

    That is a large number of people at the moment

    I mean this is the economy the main parties in the UK want to emulate, so why wouldn’t UK wages follow the same pattern?

    The US experience shows that there is no inevitability that wages in real terms will rise ever.

    In polling terms, this will continue the dis-satisfaction will with the main parties. IMO

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