YouGov London polling

Over the last couple of days the Evening Standard have been reporting the contents of a new YouGov London poll – yesterday here and today here.

YouGov found London voting intentions of CON 35%(nc), LAB 45%(+3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 8%(-2), GRN 4%(nc). Labour are up three since June, but this poll would still suggest Labour doing slightly worse in London than elsewhere (a ten point lead for Labour in London is a 4 point swing since the general election, whereas GB polls are currently showing a 5 1/2 point swing to Labour.)

YouGov also repeated a batch of questions about Boris Johnson returning to Parliament. 37% of Londonders now think it is reasonable for him to seek to return to Parliament in 2015, but 43% think he should not consider doing so until he has completed his term as mayor. If he were to be elected as an MP in 2015 50% think he should stand down as mayor immediately, 34% think it would be okay for him to do both for a year.

Finally today’s poll looked at the possible Labour candidates for London mayor. Tessa Jowell comes top… but only on 12%, narrowly ahead of Diane Abbott on 8%. Amongst London Labour voters Jowell also comes top, but still only on 16%. I think the reality is that questions like this are largely just a recognition contest… and none of the candidates are particularly well known (I haven’t seen anyone even bother asking who should succeed Boris as the Conservative candidate!)


454 Responses to “YouGov London polling”

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  1. Tonight’s YouGov:

    CON 34%
    LAB 38%
    LD 8%
    UKIP 13%

  2. JayBlanc
    You left me there, well and truly.

  3. So back to where we started then !

  4. A last minute prediction for MOG’s competition (GB VIs):

    Con: 36%, 265 seats
    Lab 38%, 330 seats
    LD: 11%, 27 seats
    Ukip: 9%, 1 seat
    Greens: 3%, 1 seat

    (Assuming Scotland stays in the union.)

  5. Peter Crawford,

    “leaders have done this before…famously Baldwin put Labour “into bat”, as it were, in 1924, even though the tories had many more seats than Labour.”

    It may have been an acceptance by Baldwin that, not only did he not command an overall majority in the HoC but, by losing 87 seats – down to 258 – the electorate had clearly failed to show confidence in his party. He therefore had to accept that the second party must be given the opportunity to attempt to govern. In Blake’s view ‘it was a severe slap in the face for Baldwin.’

    Clearly, being the largest party but without an overall majority can result in some unusual arrangements.

  6. (You’ll notice that there seem to be some missing seats in this prediction- those are SNP gains, but I’m not predicting an exact VI number for the SNP because that’s hard.)

  7. Spearmint
    Looks reasonable based on present polling except for LD which looks (is) high.

  8. @Ann in Wales

    Not just back to where we started but back to where we’ve been, more or less since this time last year. Labour steady in upper 30s having taken a 2-3% hit about 12 months ago and the Tory vote going precisely nowhere, despite a range of benign political circumstances that really should be boosting them now. Their support remains strangely flaccid and inert. UKIP and the Lib Dems sail on regardless, almost entirely unchanged from July 2013 levels. Forget the periodic fluctuations and twitches, these polls are almost set in stone.

    Time for our monthly ICM turkey to get people all a quiver for a day or two before Groundhog Day returns to bring everyone down to earth again.

    :-)

  9. Spearmint

    But if you have predicted the number of Conservtive, Labour and Lib Dem seats “(Assuming Scotland stays in the union)”, then you must have predicted the number of seats in Scotland that those 2 parties would get.

    Who else than the SNP would have gained from seat changes in Scotland (once you exclude Con/Lab/LD)?

    UKIP, Scottish Greens, SSP, SDA, Liberals – all seem rather more unlikely, wouldn’t you say?

    Or does “prediction” just equal “guess – not based on any calculation”?

  10. “2 parties” -> “3 parties”.

    Why does one always ignore the Tories, and just add them in as an afterthought? Perhaps because most of the electorate does.

  11. CB11

    ” … and the Tory vote going precisely nowhere, despite a range of benign political circumstances that really should be boosting them now.”

    Is it possible that the benign circumstances are already boosting the Tory vote?

  12. Nothing much will change until the conferences which will send polls haywire for a few weeks before settling out at a possibly quite different level. I have to say I have never understood why this happens but it always seems to. This despite hardly anyone taking the slightest bit of interest in what actually happened at said conferences. This all assumes a NO vote of course.

  13. @ Howard,

    Chris Lane would be so proud of you. (And yeah, it probably is, but they have so many DKs- I figure some of those people will come home at the election.)

    @ Old Nat,

    I have an SNP seat prediction (it’s 9), I just don’t have a VI prediction because frankly I have no idea.

    My hope is that the Lab/SNP marginals are secure enough that the SNP VI (or really, the Lab-SNP swing in Scotland) can move across a fairly wide range without having a big impact on the Labour seat total. Otherwise that number will be thrown off as well.

    (And yeah, the seat totals are just a guess. Loosely based on Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, but I tweaked them a bit until I liked the look of them.)

  14. RMJ1

    “This despite hardly anyone taking the slightest bit of interest in what actually happened at said conferences. This all assumes a NO vote of course.”

    In the event of a Yes vote, more people will have greater reason to take not ” the slightest bit of interest in what actually happened at said conferences”.

    Surely that will increase the proportion of the remnant GB (NI probably tales even less interest already) population who do take an interest. Sounds like a gain for the rGB parties to me. :-)

  15. Spearmint

    Your honesty is very endearing. :-)

  16. @ Old Nat,

    I did have a look at the Scottish constituencies… After a few minutes I came to the conclusion that I was wallowing in such a state of abject ignorance that there was no point in even trying to predict them, beyond “Goodbye, Lib Dems.”

    I think it’s genuinely quite hard to predict what will happen between the SNP and Labour with respect to Westminster voting intention in the event of a “No” vote in the referendum. And if anyone does know what’s going to happen, that person is not me.

  17. @adge3 – “The Iraq war was wrong in my opinion, and I think in the opinion of most of the public.”

    Agreed. As to Ed Miliband… there was a moment during the leadership hustings when he first set out his opposition to the Iraq war. There then followed a to-and-fro where Ed Balls questioned him about when his views had changed. Miliband insisting that he had always felt that way, Balls adamant that this was news to him… “why didn’t you say anything at the time?”

    Fair enough, many MPs had doubts (of varying magnitude) at the time, but Ed Miliband’s advantage was that he wasn’t an MP then.

    He backed intervention in Libya. The response to Syria was more down to Douglas Alexander (the Blairite, or was he a Brownite? No one can remember).

    The main factor in the UK’s change in foreign policy since 2008 is Obama. He can’t be seen to back down, but leaves Cameron and Sarkozy/Hollande to make the running; he prevaricates, and then is none too bothered if it breaks down. A McCain or a Romney would have started something with Iran by now.

    The problem only really arises for Ed Miliband if he becomes PM and a GOP candidate makes it to the White House in 2016.

  18. If there is a Yes vote, would that be good news for Lab in 2015?

    No reason to vote SNP in Scotland, and the choice then becomes who in Westminster would be better to deal with in the negotiations. With Cons having little interest in Scotland, you might have thought that calculation would mean pro independence voters opting for Lab at the GE.

    The current Westminster polling for Lab in Scotland really doesn’t look too good and they would lose a fair bundle of seats unless something changes. This makes the more optimistic predictions of their likely seat tally look a bit shaky, and any losses in Scotland could well deny them a majority victory.

    The really odd situation would be to have a greatly enhanced SNP at Westminster, possibly holding the balance of power, but having lost the referendum.

    None of this will be of direct help to Cons though I would think. It would be politically inconceivable for the SNP to support Cons at Westminster – and they have the example of the Lib Dems to prove it.

  19. “A McCain or a Romney would have started something with Iran by now. ”

    But Iran is our friend now!

    It’s those nasty Syrian’s that we don’t like.

    Oh – and those Iraqi’s. They used to be our friends, but they’re so ungrateful – and after all we’ve done for them!
    Just like the Libyans. They promised to be nice, but now they’re being horrible again.

    And the Egyptians! We gave them democracy and they vote for the wrong people. Bring back dictatorship – they’re much nicer people.

    [To explain – this is an extract from the Foreign Office’s latest guidance on UK diplomatic policy in the Middle East. It’s taken from leaks published in the Guardian. If you don’t believe me, Google it. The guidance paper is titled ‘Who Are Our Friends Today?’]

  20. @Spearmint
    “I’m not predicting an exact VI number for the SNP because that’s hard.”

    It’s not that hard. I predict 3%. It would need a big variation on that to get to 4% or 2%.

  21. This will be an extremely difficult election to predict. I don’t think we can go by swingometers for percentages. Ukip might cause troubles to the Tories especially (probably a few sweats for Labour but can’t see them unseating anyone) but I doubt they will be campaigning hard in every consituency, i.e. where there is a Ukip-sympathetic Tory. Their cause is already advanced there. So swings will be far from uniform.

    LibDems have always been boosted by a tactical ABT vote. I’m really unsure if that will hold up. Would ABT perhaps not simply vote Labour in previous LD/Tory marginals, rather than vote keep the Coalition in? Plus in some of the LD heartlands (the south-west), there’s already a high degree of Euroscepticism. They won’t be Labour gains when switching from LDs. Naturally, that won’t be the case in other parts of the country where people voted LD as a more left-wing party than Labour in the previous election.

    It’ll be seat-by-seat battles more complex and local than I’ve ever known. With a few shy Tories, I can see a hung parliament. With a rump of the LDs left, I’m not too sure which way they will swing. Probably neither way for a Coalition. With 1-3 Ukips and probably a Green (I doubt Respect will be in there), I can only see a minority government. Can’t see the SNP being courted by Labour due to Scottish Government issues.

    It’s all to play for.

  22. @ Phil,

    Haha, okay, fair point.

    I’ll go will 3% as well.

  23. @Catman

    Thank you for your response. Am naturally distraught that you know not about Thorium after my sterling efforts, but this was eclipsed by the support for flat-packed furniture… it is an ambition of mine never to have to assemble such items ever again.

    Would love to know the Green party view on Thorium, if such exists…

  24. Spearmint

    “And if anyone does know what’s going to happen, that person is not me.”

    It ain’t me either!

    We can speculate all we like about Scottish Westminster voting in 2015, following a Yes or No victory (and large or small winning margins) as much as we want, but it would be new territory (other than a huge No win), so it would just be guesswork.

    However, there are less than 50 days to go, so post referendum polling in Scotland (and not just crossbreaks in GB polls) will give data with greater reliability for those who want to take part in the guessing game.

  25. @Miserable Old Git

    I think this is the final date for entries to your competition. If I’m not too late already here is my entry:-

    Con: 34.4% – 280
    Lab: 34.8% – 307
    LD: 11.0% – 31
    UKIP: 10.1% – 1
    Green: 2.7% – 1
    BNP: 0.3% – 0
    DUP: 0.7% – 8
    SF: 0.8% – 5
    SDLP: 0.4% – 3
    SNP: 1.9% – 8
    PC: 0.6% – 3
    Other: 2.3% – 3

    Disclaimer: I’m hoping I’m wrong!

  26. @ANN IN WALES

    “So to be honest,reading this thread nobody really can predict what the next election result will be.”

    ————–

    Yep, ‘cos we don’t know if Ozzie will have another pasty tax moment, or if Ed will attempt to eat noodles with his fingers in public…

  27. Starry,
    I think the first line of your comment has it spot on.Thoughtful reasoning for
    Everything else you say.

  28. Miserable Old Git

    Not that I’m going to predict what voters might do in the UK GE, but, as a matter of interest, are you asking about GB or UK results?

    There seems to be some confusion among those who are responding to you.

  29. Carefrew,
    Or if George will have another inheritance tax pledge or Ed will promise to
    nationalise just about everything .

  30. @Ann in Wales

    Yep, possibilities are endless. With roughly nine months to go, and campaign fever hotting up, what are the odds that neither side will unaccountably screw something up we might not predict? Or, you never know, they might come up with something good to surprise us. Free storage!! With 24/7 access. And trolleys that don’t only go in a circle that try and bring you back where you started. And not just for boomers!!!… (well, you may think it unlikely but it’s happening in a parallel universe somewhere…)

  31. @ Spearmint

    Labour only have three marginal seats to defend in Scotland.
    1. Edinburgh South. LD 2nd in 2010. Ian Murray has grown in popularity since being elected. In the EU elections & local elections, Edinburgh South showed a good swing to Labour. I expect Ian Murray to increase his majority.
    2. Edinburgh North & Leith. LD 2nd in 2010. Mark Lazarowicz’s team are working to hold it already. I’m quietly confident that Labour will keep this seat.
    3. Aberdeen South. LD second in 2010. Anne Begg will keep her seat.

    That’s all the Labour Scottish marginal, so I’m thinking that any gains for the SNP will come at the expense of the LDs, not Labour.

  32. @ Spearmint

    Labour could take 2 or 3 seats from LD in Scotland. Targets are: East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, maybe Argyll; I think LD could keep as many as 7 of their 11 Scottish seats. The SNP might gain 1 seat from LD.

    If you look at the EU elections, the SNP didn’t gain anything, in % terms, from the LD ‘collapse’.

  33. Amber

    You are quite correct to describe only 3 current Labour Westminster seats in Scotland as marginal (using the standard 10% difference between 1st & 2nd as the measure).

    If party support in Scotland is much the same as in 2010 for Westminster, then the LDs are the main threat to Labour.

    If, however, there is a significant change post-referendum (even discounting the switch of LD support to SNP & Labour to date), then the 2010 data may be somewhat irrelevant.

    Your apparent certainty that “nothing much has changed” in Scottish politics since 2010 may turn out to be the case. On the other hand ……

  34. YouGov:
    Con 34%,
    Lab 38%,
    LD 8%,
    UKIP 13%;
    APP -21

  35. Starry,

    “With a few shy Tories, I can see a hung parliament.”

    Can anyone point me towards any past polling ‘evidence’ that such an animal as a ‘shy’ voter actually exists/existed? And, if so, is there any reason why this shyness applies to a particular party’s prospective supporters but not others?

    Could it be that this phenomenon is merely an invented explanation for an election result that was surprising to, and unforseen by, some people?

  36. JAYBLANC

    ……what Howard said ??

  37. @newhouset

    AW’s write-up (faqs to left of thiis page) suggests that ICM, Populus and ComRes assume there is always a spiral of silence at work among don’t knows, and reallocate according to their own formulae.

    If there are a lot of shy Tories or LDs around at the moment, then they are showing up in the divergence of results from different pollsters, and are already being accounted for to some extent in the polling average.

    h
    ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-dont-knows

  38. EM on LBC live in my area today. Have put a question in-here’s hoping.

  39. Good Morning All.

    HOWARD and SPEARMINT.
    I agree with your analysis that the LD figure is too high; I have wanted to say that for some time on here.

  40. COLIN

    Im sure it will be one of your speisals a qestion that you cant give a correct anwser too

    LOL

  41. ROGER

    I feel sure Ed has an answer for every conceivable question.

    lol

  42. Sometimes people have under estimated Labour leaders.

    An example would be Mr Churchill, with his jibe about Mr Attlee in the empty car outside Number Ten.

  43. Billybob – actually I desperately need to update those! Populus no longer do any reallocation of don’t knows, thought Ashcroft’s polls do.

  44. I wonder if post the 2015 GE after a few years a minority Lab Government will be brought down by the SNP voting against them in a no confidence motion.
    Possibly leading to 18 years of Tory rule?
    Surely the SNP wouldn’t do somethiing like that?
    Vote SNP get the Tories has a nice ring to it.

  45. How few years Jim Jam. ?

    I need to know :-)

  46. Poll by TNS BMRB

    CON 29%
    LAB 36%
    LD 7%
    UKIP 19%
    Others 7%

    LAB lead 7%

    It says date published 24th July which was Sunday, I can’t see it on the side bar and AW has updated his polling average

    Link abd tabs here

    http://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion/politics/2014/uk-voting-intentions-july/

  47. ChrisL
    Clementine was mortified by Churchill’s unworthy and puzzling attacks on the gallant Major. She told him so, and that more importantly, that it wouldn’t work.

  48. Ok, science doesn’t always happinate, and some of the boomers don’t seem to care for stuff that might happen in a few years outside their lifetime, but this is just the sort of investment worth making, with huge spin-off potential…

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11003602/End-of-chemotherapy-within-20-years-as-pioneering-DNA-project-launched.html

    “Chemotherapy will be obsolete within 20 years, scientists have predicted after launching a landmark project to map 100,000 genomes to find the genes responsible for cancer and rare diseases.

    By the time children born today reach adulthood, invasive drugs and their devastating side-effects, will have been replaced by sophisticated medicines that can fix individual faulty genes, according to those behind the project.

    Britain is the first country in the world to embark on a program to map the genomes of thousands of people in the hope of finding which genes are responsible.

    In a joint £300 million project, universities across Britain are coming together, alongside the Department of Health, the Wellcome Trust, Great Ormond Street Hospital and the Medical Research Council.

    David Cameron, the prime minister, said the venture would ‘unlock the power of DNA’ to deliver ‘better tests, better drugs and better care for patients.’”

    “We will look back in 20 years time and the blockbuster chemotherapy drugs that gave you all those nasty side effects will be a thing of the past and we will think ‘gosh what an era that was’.

    “Understanding humanity’s genetic code is not only going to be fundamental to the medicine of the future. It is essential part of medicine today. In rare congenital disease, in cancer and in infections, genomic insights are already transforming diagnosis and treatment.”

    Prof Farrer also predicted that genome sequencing to find the causes of the disease will become standard within our lifetime.”

    “Scientists expect the project to be pivotal to the development of future personalised treatments based on genetics, with the potential to revolutionise medicine.”

    “Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, said: “The NHS is now set to become one of the world’s ‘go-to’ health services for the development of innovative genomic tests and patient treatments.”

  49. @COLIN

    “How few years Jim Jam. ?

    I need to know :-)”

    ———–

    It’ll be right after a winter of discontent, with rampant unions striking at will…

  50. @ Floating voter

    I think that one has already been mentioned on here. I also think AW gave some technical reason why he didn’t include them in the rolling averages. this could be a different poll though!

    The Guardian has done a write up on this one and the interesting bits are that of the remaining LD voters they narrowly prefer a coalition with the Tories than with Labour.

    Also one surprising thing to me was that the LD’s vote (at only 7% anyway) was the softest of any of the parties with 47% of their vote liable to change their minds. Next order was UKIP 34%, Tory 24% and Labour 22%.

    Each month that passes you begin to think there is not going to be a recovery for the LD’s.

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