Following on from the two point and four point leads in the Ashcroft and Populus polls today the other two voting intention polls tonight both have six point Labour leads.

ComRes‘s telephone poll for the Indy has topline figures of CON 27%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 17%(-1)
Meanwhile YouGov‘s daily poll for the Sun has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%


138 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Colin

    “And for many what matters is the level of State spending on services. The latter is a function of the proportion of GDP taken by the State in taxes-not just the GDP per se.”

    ——

    Yes, that was rather my point…

  2. CARFREW

    @”I wasn’t aware Labour were pursuing the per capita thing… ”

    “At long last our economy is back to the size it was before the global banking crisis – three years after the US reached the same point.

    But with GDP per head not set to recover for three more years and most people still seeing their living standards squeezed this is no time for complacent claims that the economy is fixed.”

    Ed Balls-25/7/2014

  3. Mr N
    While our economists fight it out with GDP stats at dawn, I still cannot find your magnum opus. Does this mean I am not intelligent enough to benefit from it? Don’t answer that.

  4. http://claritynews.co.uk/2014/07/israel-wrong-hamas-undermine-peace/

    There you are, although probably best not to discuss it too much on here as it has little effect on UK Polling.

  5. Wow Nameless !
    You have the same Real World Initials as me.
    Good article, btw.

  6. Yes, excellent article, Mr N.

    As someone very involved in getting support for the miners in 1984/85 I can only say you are spot on. We did try and tell Arthur!

  7. @Howard
    “GDP stats at dawn” is cute. Which one has the black hat? Try reading the posts again with Colin as the Duke and Carfrew as Clint Eastwood. (You’ll not find that much improvement but it helps).

    I once started quoting the line “If you laid all the economists in the world end to end..” to be shot down by a smart-alec with “They’d be easier to shoot”. As true as the original, and of more practical use.

  8. @Norbold

    You can always tell a Yorkshireman – but you can’t tell him much.

  9. Postage
    Trubble is all economists see it as ‘High Noon’ , with themselves as the Sheriff, and all the bad guys bite the dust ! (One day).

  10. To shed some light on the discussion, here are some figures on GDP per capita.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-per-capita.png?s=gbrnygdppcapkd

    By my reckoning, that’s a 1.0% rate of growth in the last year.

    It’s slightly complicated by being presented in USD, but given recent exchange rate changes that should have made UK growth look better if anything.

  11. The real intention behind the NHS features is the implication that it’s too expensive and unsustainable but telling the readership that private insurance is the answer wouldn’t be popular right now. It’s about groundwork for the future.

  12. …and here’s the same data corrected for “purchasing power parity” (i.e. exchange rates):

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-per-capita-ppp.png?s=gbrnygdppcapppcd

    This goes some way to explaining the lack of a feel-good factor.

  13. @Ewen
    Indeedy. The world is multidimensional but economists stick to one.

    Oddly, the only genuine economist of my close acquaintance wasn’t like that at all. He was also a rather too fun-loving party animal and not a “dismal scientist” at all. Though his pre-2008 warnings of a “major adjustment” were delivered in suitably funereal tones, they were usually followed by “Your round”.

  14. Roger

    Lady Thatcher wanted to go that way and [NewsUK’s] belief is now, more than and ever, that [they] should pursue that agenda.

  15. “Lady Thatcher wanted to go that way and the belief is now, more than and ever, that we should pursue that agenda.”

    Well if this would be for the greater good can we take it that the meeja will be ‘shouting it from the rooftops’ for the next ten months ?

    When can we expect some polling on whether privatising the NHS is a good or bad thing ?

  16. Here again we see evidence of a slightly increasing Labour lead, or at least not going down. 39% seems a bit high. Conservatives have a job on their hands if they want to win next time.

  17. MR N

    An interesting article.

    Your last para begs the question though-if it is so obvious to you that cessation of rocket attacks on Israel could bring peace-why don’t Hamas want to do it?

  18. “Labour outspent every other political party during 2013, and still had millions left over ”

    http://t.co/JZty11PBuo

    Now that must surprise a few people! It certainly surprised me.

  19. OZWALD

    There have been many polls on alternatives to the NHS, and they are always opposed by a overwhelming majority. If the Tory party is foolish enough to propose some form of increased private involvement then Ed might as well book the removers.
    I just got a copy of Capital in the twenty-first century sent out from the UK, so I am hoping to contribute to the GNP debate when I have finished it, it will probably be after the
    GE in May).

  20. @Hamish.
    Thanks for your thoughts. Happy reading!

  21. labours 10 point lead in London and the collapse of libdem support in con v lab marginals and the energy companies gearing up for there annual winter price hike realy does not bode well for Cameron however much he [campaigns] on immigrants and welfare

  22. @MR NAMELESS

    Good article but cannot agree with yor conclusions, but this is not the place.

  23. The ‘market share’ taken by organisations like BBC and NHS is one reason why some want to see them dismantled… more importantly though, the very fact of high quality cost-effective provision of public services is seen as setting a bad example for other countries in the global marketplace.

  24. As ever, this isn’t a place for party political or policy debate – or for being rude and unwelcoming to people of different political sympathies to one’s own. If people can’t be trusted to moderate their own beahviour along those lines, I’ll moderate it for them.

  25. @Mr Nameless

    Interesting article but have to disagree somewhat with your assessment. By their actions, Hamas have brought to the attention of the world that the people of Gaza are already suffering a slow agonising death due to the blockade. This argument has rarely been heard in the past 7 years.

  26. One thought I had about the Sun/Times spreads on the NHS crisis, which at first glance is an odd editorial line for a strongly Tory-supporting group of newspapers, is that they may be laying an elaborate trap for Labour.

    The Tories would dearly love to portray Labour as intent on raising taxes for middle earners – a repeat of 1992’s “tax bombshell” campaign, and a means of neutralising Labours credibility on the cost of living issue.

    Labour were seriously considering a 1% rise in NI to fill the NHS funding black hole. However, they have backed away from this stance, much to the annoyance of the Tories as it gifts them their ideal campaign fodder around raising taxes on “hard working families” while wages are not recovering.

    Perhaps raising the NHS as an issue is about giving Labour the confidence to go for the bold funding option, thus gifting a valuable attack line to the Tories.

    Or is that too clever for the Murdoch press?

  27. Just stumbled across this quote…:

    “The Tories, every election, must have a bogy man. If you haven’t got a programme, a bogy man will do.” Aneurin Bevan

  28. Pertaining to the Miners’ Strike; there was a clear policy to strike in the event of pit closures democratically agreed by a large majority (something like 83% as I recall).

    The feeling at the time was that if we jumped through that hoop they’d find another way to tie us up in legal knots and frustrate the will of the miners.

    Arthur Scargill also claims that he was actually in favour of a ballot but went along with the above stated view because that was the view of the other leaders.

    I doubt that Thatcher would have seen the result of the ballot and said; ‘fair enough, let’s call off the pre-planned attempt to break the unions’ it would have just been onto the next thing.

  29. Dr Mibbles:

    The last ICM poll asked about funding the NHS. They found:

    The NHS is the second subject of the July poll, with future difficulties over funding (and the recommendation of NICE that gastric band surgery should be offered to diabetes sufferers) exercising the public mind this week. The public though, recognise that an ageing society (33%) is the most pressing problem for the NHS to deal with, followed by lifestyle diseases in a fairly distant second place (20%). The government’s market-based overhaul (17%) and rapacious medics putting financial reward over patient care (14%) also feature to a lesser degree.

    But the public are quite clear how they think health should be financed. Higher taxes is twice as likely to be chosen as the favoured option (48%) over charging at the point of delivery (21%), with the withdrawal of some treatments even less popular (19%). Let us recognise though, that higher taxes has always been the most socially acceptable way of saying the NHS (and other public services) should be funded, and yet tax increases rarely prove popular. These are hard choices that the public may well have to consider further.

    http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/guardian-poll-july-2014

    The NHS has huge public support & it is inconceivable that funding can remain the same while we as a population get older & demand more from the service. A funding crisis will shortly be upon it yet that could have been mitigated somewhat if the Treasury had not reclaimed the underspend within the NHS over the last few years.

    There’s something not quite right to set a target to cut the spend, reclaim the amount underspent, deliberately starve the service of funds then claim that it’s inefficient & costs too much money !

  30. @Mr Beeswax

    “I doubt that Thatcher would have seen the result of the ballot and said; ‘fair enough, let’s call off the pre-planned attempt to break the unions’ it would have just been onto the next thing.”

    Of course she wouldn’t but it would certainly have been easier to get more support for the miners.

  31. @ Mike N

    Might a tad out of date now, even Damien McBride is arguing that Labour’s policies are a “great steaming pile of fudge.” And that’s from a Labour supporter!

  32. “At long last our economy is back to the size it was before the global banking crisis – three years after the US reached the same point.

    But with GDP per head not set to recover for three more years and most people still seeing their living standards squeezed this is no time for complacent claims that the economy is fixed.”

    Ed Balls-25/7/2014

    That’s a very confused argument. The population hasn’t changed much since 2007 so where is the divergence coming from? It looks like he’s comparing PPP figures for GDP, and then switching to nominal for GDP per capita. But if he wants to make a point about living standards he should use PPP, and in PPP the GDP per capita is already above the pre-recession peak…

  33. the capacity of the labour party for in-fighting and scre*ing things up is legendary…heaven help us if they get in….mili has maintained a lead, albeit slim sometimes, for three years and more…, but they still have a go. They’re incredible…tories tend to be more disciplined. They are behaving impeccably. I can’t remember the last time an MP publicly slagged off the PM, even anonymously….and they are the ones, according to the numers, who should be c*cking themselves….

  34. What’s different this time, Peter, is that it’s Labour’s right wing who are throwing a fit. I’m genuinely interested though, because they claim their opposition is based on wanting Labour to win and not thinking Miliband can – if he does win, will they settle down or find another gripe?

  35. A couple of comments re the above debates:

    * on polling in London – there seems to be no doubt that Boris Johnson is seen as extremely popular in the country as a whole but I wonder if he is quite such an asset for the Conservatives in London itself? My own view – based purely on the comments of friends/associates in the capital is that there is a level of discomfort about his persona – the vague feeling that he is a bit clownish and perhaps makes the city seem rather foolish. I don’t know if there is any polling evidence for my view.

    * are we all absolutely convinced that the ‘right-wing papers’ will support the Conservatives as a block? They like to pick the winner and I think it’s not impossible that they could split. The Evening Standard has a very different line now to the one it had during the mayoral election – it may be that they got what they wanted but that they also lost some credibility?

  36. @ Dr Mibbles

    Ah, the NHS funding black hole! From the New Statesman on July 10th:

    “The NHS is riddled with extortionate debt from decades of misguided PFI deals. NHS hospitals owe £80bn in PFI loan unitary charges – in other words, the ongoing costs of maintaining PFI hospitals and paying back the loans. Next year alone, trusts will make some £2bn in repayments. Trusts like Peterborough and Stamford Hospitals NHS Trust, which is locked into making £40m in repayments a year on the PFI it took for Peterborough City Hospital, or Sherwood Forest NHS Trust, which is spending 15 per cent of its annual budget on the annual repayments on a PFI loan it took to expand the King’s Mill Hospital, and so on.”

    The vast majority of this falls under 1997-2010, it will all come back how the voting public perceive economic competence or the lack of at the next GE!

  37. they really don’t want him to win…it’s very odd….what’s amazing is how b*tchy public and personal it all is.

    the right of the tory party does bang on about europe but they’ve kept very quiet about what they think of Cameron… the PM gave the libs the AV vote before securing boundaries; presided over the most politically damaging budget in 50 years. (can’t remember a budget which had such an adverse effect on a govt’s standing than 2012 budget); waged a culture war on the base of the party; and, as a consequence of some of this stuff, saw a UKIP vote share quadruple from 3.1% at the general to about 12% now, drawing predominantly from disaffected tories, acc. to most polls…BUT still the tories don’t utter a murmur….

    Labour on the other hand….

  38. @Bantams

    ‘Damien McBride is arguing that Labour’s policies are a “great steaming pile of fudge.”’

    And his advice? “McBride advised Mr Miliband to present himself as “a Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage-style outsider,”

    That should do it.

  39. Bantams
    “…a tad out of date now”

    Some things never change.

    I note that McBride has a follow up to the book he had published last year. Obviously he’s keen to achieve good sales this year.

  40. @ Norbold

    Yes, I can just see him hanging from a zip wire in a London park and getting away with it or asking the journo’s to join him for a pint of the landlords best! LOL

  41. To be fair, it’s only a few individual within Labour making the noise – mostly prominent old Blairites with books to sell.

    They are given air time by a press keen to undermine Miliband in any way they can, but the reality is that people like Miliband and McBride are neither influential in the party or popular with the public.

  42. Sorry, that should have read ‘Mandelson and McBride’… freudien slip

  43. @ Dr Mibbles

    Never a truer word spoken……….

  44. Norbold

    ‘Damien McBride is arguing that Labour’s policies are a “great steaming pile of fudge.”’

    And his advice? “McBride advised Mr Miliband to present himself as “a Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage-style outsider,”

    That should do it.

    Well in a sense that’s what he has been doing recently, even the ridiculous McBride may be right on some occasions on the stopped clock principle. Though anyone who considers Boris Johnson to be an ‘outsider’ to the British political system is completely detached from reality. Not that that ever stopped anyone commenting on it of course.

  45. One of the problems with the NHS budget is that the second highest expense after staff costs, is compensation paid for legal actions for incompetence. Add into that payoffs to failed chief execs and whistleblowers.
    Another problem is that more people use the NHS but don’t contribute to it, than use it and contribute. Higher paid people often have private medical cover, so pay twice (and reduce the pressure on NHS resources, because they attend private hospitals) Many people are not into a net tax situation until they are earning over 20k, so effectively don’t contribute anything.
    Some kind of re-alignment of what the NHS should be about, has to happen eventually as in its current form, it is unaffordable. Should lifestyle choices be funded on the NHS? – sex changes, gastric bands etc. Maybe some tough love is called for by way of government programmes telling people to take responsibility for themselves. Into this also must come a debate on higher taxes on fatty and sugary drinks & foods and consideration of a statutory charge on the drunks who cutter up the A&E departments on a weekend.

  46. @MDJCole

    “and in PPP the GDP per capita is already above the pre-recession peak…”

    Really? Try looking at the data I linked to earlier in the thread.

    The 2013 figures were 5% below the peak, and the value of this year’s growth has been swallowed by the pound’s strength against dollar and euro (approx 5% up on each since the start of the year) and a small but non-negligible population increase – net immigration alone is running at 0.3% pa.

    “The population hasn’t changed much since 2007 ”

    UK population is up by 4.5% since 2007.

  47. McBride isn’t a Blairite, but he probably isn’t a big fan of Ed Miliband either, as it was Miliband who insisted he be sacked.

    Today’s YouGov is on the opposite extreme of MoE from Sunday’s- good retention, good LD switching- but Labour VI does seem to be inching up a bit. I wonder if it’s all the NHS stories or just natural post-May reversion to their baseline? Either way, it’s somewhat reassuring for them; the numbers move in the right direction even in the summer when they’re not doing anything.

    @ Pressman,

    I fully endorse “your” cunning plan to raise the salience of the NHS. That will definitely convince the public privatisation is the answer and not help Labour win the next election in any way.

  48. @HOWARD

    “Mr N While our economists fight it out with GDP stats at dawn”

    ———

    Yes, well, some things are a bit more involved than others. Like, if you want to tell us about your life in Dutchland, that probably doesn’t admit of as much debate…

  49. @POSTAGEINCLUDED

    “@Howard “GDP stats at dawn” is cute. Which one has the black hat? Try reading the posts again with Colin as the Duke and Carfrew as Clint Eastwood. (You’ll not find that much improvement but it helps).”

    ——–

    Well it wasn’t so much a debate, more that I made a simple point and a couple of others quibbled needlessly. But it might be an improvement, especially for Howard, if we set it in Holland!!…

  50. @Pressman

    The problem with that “softening up” strategy is the same as what has been happening with the press focus on immigration….

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