Following on from the two point and four point leads in the Ashcroft and Populus polls today the other two voting intention polls tonight both have six point Labour leads.

ComRes‘s telephone poll for the Indy has topline figures of CON 27%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 17%(-1)
Meanwhile YouGov‘s daily poll for the Sun has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%


138 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

1 2 3
  1. @Colin

    “Ed Balls-25/7/2014″

    ——–

    Bloody ‘el, that was only a few days ago. The debate on here about it happened a while before that. Anyway, it’s been sunny, what are we supposed to do… go out and have some fun or read Ed Balls?

  2. @Robert Newark

    Applying the suggestions you make for the NHS would be a nightmare, and in my view not work.

    Gender dysphoria is a very serious issue for those affected, and is now identified in children. The NHS doesn’t perform sex changes as a flimsy lifestyle choice. It performs them when the problem is seriously damaging those affected.

    Gastric bands can be a long term money saver. If some is at that stage, what is the cost of not treating them with a band and having a lifetime of side effects of their weight?

    Imagine every medical procedure being checked against the typical small print of a health insurance policy. You would an additional army of administrators just to police the system.

    I know what would happen with such an NHS – a massively different health outcomes for people based entirely on their ability to pay.

  3. Correction

    @Robert Newark

    Applying the suggestions you make for the NHS would be a nightmare, and in my view not work.

    Gender dysphoria is a very serious issue for those affected, and is now identified in children. The NHS doesn’t perform sex changes as a flimsy lifestyle choice. It performs them when the problem is seriously damaging those affected.

    Gastric bands can be a long term money saver. If someone is at that stage, what is the cost of not treating them with a band and having a lifetime of side effects of their weight?

    Imagine every medical procedure being checked against the typical small print of a health insurance policy. You would an additional army of administrators just to police the system.

    I know what would happen with such an NHS – a massively different health outcomes for people based entirely on their ability to pay.

  4. Carfrew

    It’s like I said, it’s ‘High Noon’ and
    Colin’s the Sheriff and you’re Frank Miller !

  5. @ Catmanjeff,

    I wouldn’t worry. Robert’s main argument seems to be “The NHS provides people with health care for less than they would have to pay in a private market, and we should change this because it makes rich people sad!”

    That’s going to be a hard sell, politically.

  6. “That’s going to be a hard sell, politically.”

    ———-

    Pressman could sell it!!

  7. I should point out that rich people also like getting cheap and effective healthcare, like the NHS. It’s large corporations that don’t like it – an entirely different thing altogether :)

  8. I think what I was trying to say about quoted financial statistics on here is that it really is a wasted effort, unless the right winger posts about negative information for the Government, or the left winger posts about positive information for the Government. Otherwise I am not really very interested. My correspondence about politics in the Netherlands must of course naturally be in a different league, as it is unsullied by partisanship. I plead that, on a polling chat site, the developments elsewhere, very often in contradiction of what is happening here, must be interesting, although I would not wish to compete with our colleague Virgilio, who knows everything about everywhere.

  9. Meanwhile,
    It has been said that David Cameron has a problem with women voters ,hence
    Perhaps some of the reasoning behind the latest reshuffle.Does it not then
    send a rather mixed message that an MP who has assaulted a woman can
    Stay in post until May 2015?

  10. I should point out that rich people also like getting cheap and effective healthcare, like the NHS. It’s large corporations that don’t like it – an entirely different thing altogether :)

    That’s why large Corporations want the TTIP.

    It seems odd to me we are serving the TTIP up to them, Governments grovelling, on a silver platter.

  11. It has been said that David Cameron has a problem with women voters ,hence
    Perhaps some of the reasoning behind the latest reshuffle.Does it not then
    send a rather mixed message that an MP who has assaulted a woman can
    Stay in post until May 2015?

    I would have thought it correct to withdraw the whip and expel him from the party.

  12. Still a resistance to show the Green percentage despite the steady improving representation across the country and the potential to get 3 green MPs into parliament next May. Do I dectect a bias against greens in the editorial?

  13. I think what the Greens need to get coverage is crossover with the Lib Dems – it’s come close a few times!

  14. @Howard
    I suppose you’re saying that objectivity requires that we all look for evidence that contradicts our favoured hypothesis. So instead of a Western shoot-out we play Russian Roulette?

    My objection to extended discussion of economic statistics isn’t that the participants fight their corners, but that what they’re fighting over isn’t generally worth having. Of course respondents to polls say “The Economy” is important, but I’d bet that what most of them mean by that generally isn’t even numerical, let alone statistical. To extend your metaphor, the dawn shoot out is about a mine full of fools’ gold.

  15. Does anyone know what’s actually going on with TTIP?

    I read stuff in June from Labour MPs who had been anxious about it saying everyone can relax, the NHS has been exempted, and then I’ve read more recent articles from reasonably credible sources that seem totally unaware of any exemption and are still treating it as an emergency.

  16. @spearmint : I got a twitter response that NHS was excluded,but it seems that it CAN be excluded but we are only going to exclude our ambulances…or something like that.

  17. The point is, the NHS is not cheap. It’s bloody expensive, in part because it is so inefficient in what it does. One way of making people appreciate the value of it, would be for them to receive an annual statement of what they have received in the previous year, maybe a hospital stay, maybe scans, against that could be entered what they have contributed in taxation. Maybe then it will bring home the value of it. There is a saying, stuff given away for free is perceived to have no value. Perhaps it is time to look at the model in socialist France, where it is a part self insurance scheme. (With provision for those who have a very low income)
    As far as lifestyle choices are concerned, people are free to do what they want within the boundaries of the law but don’t ask the taxpayer to pick up the bill.

    When I talk of tough love I mean to get the message across that people should take responsibility for themselves. The simple answer to losing weight for most fat people is to eat less and eat the right food and exercise more. So tax bad food more beef up the education campaign and use the money saved to help those who have a genuine weight problem which isn’t caused by overeating. I would add that self help was a founding principle of the welfare state originally.

    Of course any poll of the nation will show a majority for hands off our NHS even to modernise it and make it more efficient. That is simply because as I inferred in my earlier post generally speaking, those who use it are not those who pay for it.

    It will be a very brave government which does fundamentally make it fit for purpose in the 21st century and my fear is that it will continue to be run by 2nnd rate managers, more interested in their public image, than serving the public and that the easy option of pouring ever more money into a bottomless pit will continue.

  18. ROBERT NEWARK

    Agree with much of your post on the NHS. I totally agree that it is unlikely to survive very long in it’s current form. I speak as one who pays twice for my medical car.

  19. Sorry care not car.

  20. @Anne in Wales

    The Daily Mail said that Ruffley “. faced a pincer movement from Tory chairman Grant Shapps and new Chief Whip Michael Gove”, which you’d think would be terrifying enough to make him leave the country, let alone the party.

    Odd though that Cameron didn’t go further, though, as it would seem to be an ideal opportunity to gain some feminist street cred.

  21. @Robert Newark

    So how do you determine ‘lifestyle’ choice?

    For example, take two people. Both eat a bit poorly, don’t exercise quite enough etc, but one has a greater genetic chance of high cholesterol through no fault of their own.

    How would the patient with the genetic tendency to high cholesterol be treated, should it develop fully? Would you say they their problems are a lifestyle issue? How could you unpick the genetic from the diet and laziness?

    That approach leads to a million and one similar quandaries that are so difficult to unpick.

    If someone makes bad choices, what happens? You make them pay? What if they can’t? You leave them to die and suffer? After all it was their lifestyle choice wasn’t it?

  22. In a recent US survey of international health care systems, the NHS came out top or near-top of nearly all measurements. It appears here that the UK model is the best approach:

    http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2014/jun/mirror-mirror

  23. @Robert

    RE: NHS Efficiency

    “The NHS is one of the most cost-effective health systems in the developed world, according to a study (pdf) published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

    The “surprising” findings show the NHS saving more lives for each pound spent as a proportion of national wealth than any other country apart from Ireland over 25 years. Among the 17 countries considered, the United States healthcare system was among the least efficient and effective.”

    ht tp://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/aug/07/nhs-among-most-efficient-health-services

  24. Postage,
    Odd indeed.

  25. Yes, it’s generally accepted that the NHS is the one of the most, if not THE most, efficient public healthcare system in the entire world – certainly of the larger economies.

    Will be interesting to watch the polls to see noticeable shifts in peoples perception of the NHS as a key priority. If it overtakes the economy and pulls away from it, that changes the dynamic of 2015 quite considerably.

  26. DRMIBBLES

    “Yes, it’s generally accepted that the NHS is the one of the most, if not THE most, efficient public healthcare system in the entire world – certainly of the larger economies.”

    Not according to the World Health Organisation and on a whole range of measures as referred to in the following article.

    http://www.cityam.com/article/why-french-model-may-have-answer-nhs-s-many-challenges

  27. @Spearmint

    The position of TTIP vis a vis the NHS is that the government can renationalise but existing (and even potential) private health care providers will be able to sue the UK govt for expropriation of their expected profits, under an Investor State Dispute Settlement tribunal (ISDS). The ISDS tribunal consists three private lawyers who specialise in international law. They make a decision to which there is no appeal and they do not have to release information as to how they arrived at their decision or what witnesses were called.

    In fact, the UK gov’t can be sued now for renationalising the NHS because the coalition restructuring brings it under the jurisdiction of EU competition law. The coalition could ask for the NHS to be excluded from TTIP but they have chosen not to so do.

    However, in addition to TTIP, there is another treaty being currently negotiated which will pick up any ‘deficiencies’ in TTIP (or indeed if it is abandoned because of the US electoral cycle). The other treaty is TISA or Trade in Services Agreement. Many consider TISA to be more draconian in scope as it will prevent further regulation of financial services as well.

  28. @HOWARD

    “I think what I was trying to say about quoted financial statistics on here is that it really is a wasted effort, unless the right winger posts about negative information for the Government, or the left winger posts about positive information for the Government. Otherwise I am not really very interested. My correspondence about politics in the Netherlands must of course naturally be in a different league, as it is unsullied by partisanship. I plead that, on a polling chat site, the developments elsewhere, very often in contradiction of what is happening here, must be interesting, although I would not wish to compete with our colleague Virgilio, who knows everything about everywhere.”

    ————–

    Loving the veiled attempt to suggest we might all just inevitably just be locked in partisan opposition on the matter, but in my exchange with Colin we wer more in agreement than not. Colin agreed GDP per capita was an issue, he simply gave data to quantify the extent of the issue, and that maybe it has lessened a little recently. Which is useful stuff, given the salience of wages. He also agreed about the impact on deficit, and hence impact on services (and pre-electoral inducements) etc.

    Both of which may have quite the impact on VI though, as Colin implies, less so perhaps for boomers such as yourself. I will agree that talking about the inability to get salt and vinegar crisps is unsullied by partisanship, but it may also be considered unsullied by relevance, save the utility of it being yet another opportunity to work in how urbane and sophisticated you must be etc.

    I mean, you could at least talk about Dutch footie or summat!!…

  29. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Agree with much of your post on the NHS. I totally agree that it is unlikely to survive very long in it’s current form. I speak as one who pays twice for my medical care.”

    ———–

    It has been pointed out before how the NHS can effectively subsidise private care, by training up the doctors, providing the treatments that private firms find less profitable, and providing competition to keep prices down with the NHS bulk-buying power…

  30. CARFREW

    So what, I still pay twice.

  31. TOONIE

    “Labour will definitely do well to concentrate on the privatisation of the NHS.this summer.”

    Anyone working in or aware of stresses and needs in the health, social services and housing sectors is also aware of Lab and particularly Burnham’s preparations for a joining up of the NHS with social care, the strengthening of community health care, child care provision and tax relief and the linkage of social housing with age care. I believe this awareness in a large section of the voting public will, together with proposals for a living wage, weigh heavily in VI. It is about a lot more than preventing privatisation of the NHS.

  32. TOONIE

    @”“Labour will definitely do well to concentrate on the privatisation of the NHS.this summer.””

    Best get that 2010 Manifesto re-written first :-

    “All hospitals will become Foundation Trusts………….Foundation Trusts will be given the freedom to expand their provision into primary & community care , and to increase their private services.

    We will support an active role for the Independent Sector, working alongside the NHS in the provision of care, particularly where they bring innovation………and increase capacity”

    Until then, might be best to find a different spokesman than Burnham.

  33. @ToH

    But you might not get as much for the money without the NHS, was my point. People have been paying just the once in the States and been paying a lot more for less coverage.

  34. BANTAMS

    “Privatisation” is a dog-whistle word. Not sure who’s listening outside the publ;lic sector left.

    Don’t patients just want good care?

    Friend of mine had physio recently . It was provided by Virgin Care-same NHS Hospital as usual, same gym, same treatment-different uniforms. What’s the problem ?

  35. @ Colin

    I have absoloutely no problem with private companies providing services and using NHS facilities, in fact a private ambulance will be transferring my mum-in-law 400 miles to a hospital in Redruth near us today. It takes pressure off the whole service, even senior Labour politicians reluctantly accept that fact. There’s no turning the clock back.

    [Snip – same as PMQs, no point arguing if a politician did well or badly in an interview. “He was wonderful”, “He was rubbish” – AW]

  36. CARFREW

    Maybe, maybe not who knows. As it happens I don’t really mind paying twice as I can afford to, and as I have said before I would have been dead a long time ago if I had not had access to private healthcare.

  37. @Robin

    I did not look at the data in your post, but rather that from the world bank – http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

    The UK PPP GDP per capita is 99.6% that of the 2008 peak at the end of 2013. One can argue that there was a high peak in some individual month, or perhaps that the UK economy hasn’t grown the extra 0.4ppt since the beginning of the year (really?) but certainly not that we are 3 years away from having equivalent per capita living standards.

    Your point about exchange rates is precisely the problem. Exchange rates are only relevant to nominal GDP, not PPP – but PPP is the measure of what money actually buys, i.e. living standards. It’s not clear from what you have written that you understand this distinction. Basically Balls can make a point about the economy not having recovered since 2008, as measured by how much British economic output would buy in the USA, or he can make a point about actual living standards at British prices (that they should be even higher than in ’08 and damn the recession?!), but not both.

    I think the whole living standards/prices tack from Labour was short sighted, because it would only work if the economic stalled for the full 5 years of the Parliament. Clearly it hasn’t, and we now have the cuts, low unemployment, and living standards just as high as they were before the crash. Balls doesn’t really have a next move.

1 2 3