This week’s YouGov results for the Sunday Times are up here. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% – a Labour lead of one point

28% now think the economy is in a good state, 36% a bad state. It’s still negative, but it’s creeping ever upwards – 28% is the highest YouGov have recorded since they started asking the question in 2010. Similarly on people’s own economic optimism, 19% expect their household finances to get better over the next twelve months, 31% expect them to continue to get worse – the net figure (“the feel good factor”) of minus 12 is still negative, but it’s the least negative YouGov have recorded since 2010.

YouGov also reasked some questions on Gaza that they initially asked a week ago. Public opinion has moved slightly towards the Palestinians – a week ago 23% said they were more sympathetic towards the Palestinians, now it’s 27%, but the broad picture remains the same: most people aren’t more favourable to either side, both sides are considered equally to blame for civilian casualties, and both sides’ actions are considered unjustified.

The Sunday Times also had a new Panelbase poll on the Scottish referendum. Topline figures are YES 41%, NO 48%. Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 46%. Panelbase use slightly different wordings for their polls for the Sunday Times and for Yes Scotland, and it’s unclear whether they make a slight difference to the results or not. It doesn’t make much difference to the trend either way: since March Panelbase’s level of YES support has been steady at 46%-48%.


129 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 35, LAB 36, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Alos, I don’t think the LDs are so unprincipled as to go into a coalition with a party that, in their view, largely wants out of Europe and will spend the first two years “banging on about it”.

    Better give them their head if they have a seat majority but not an OM and then just vote them down as required.

    More sensibly, do a deal with Labour.

  2. “The reason I ask is that 46% Yes will probably not vote Lab in. 2015”

    Why won’t they? Voting yes in the referendum doesn’t equate to supporting the SNP. Labour have 40 MPs to the SNP’s 6, I imagine partly because voters realise a Labour MP is more useful than a SNP MP at Westminster.

  3. @RogerH

    Yes that applied in the past but the campaign is getting bitter and I don’t think the wounds will heal by next May. I could be wrong but I can see a scenario that works out very well for the Cons. Cameron gets credit at Tory conference and by Pressman’s chums for ‘saving the union’. He had said he is going to spend two weeks in Scotland for the referendum campaign. It won’t help No but will allow him to claim he ‘saved the union’.

    Then Scots Yessers are not going to just shrug their shoulders and say ‘Oh well back to voting Lab again’. They will take a while to forgive and forget.

    Our assumptions are based on Lab getting 52 seats in Scotland but what if the GE is closer to the 2011 result 15 Seats. They 37 seats to make up from elsewhere.

  4. @Couper2802

    Based on the last Westminster poll I could find in Scotland (July) on whatscotlandthinks.org the makeup of seats would be:

    SNP – 33 seats – 40%
    Labour – 22 seats – 32%
    LD – 2 seats – 5%
    Con – 2 seats – 15%
    Others zilch seats with 8%.

    Of course this is just predictive but as things stand the SNP are going to do serious damage to both Labour and us!

    Be interesting to expand this to Wales and England based on average latest polls.

  5. A lot of SNP voters aren’t interested in the Westminster Elections boycotting it on principle only bothering to vote in the Scottish one.

  6. Based on the UKPR Yougov poll on July 2nd the Welsh makeup @ Westminster would be:

    Labour – 28 seats – 41%
    Con – 8 seats – 25%
    Plaid – 3 seats – 11%
    LD – 1 seat – 5%
    Others – Zilch – 17% (UKIP 14%)

  7. @ Nigel

    Is that a personal opinion or based on factual knowledge? Something I keep being pulled up on!

  8. I don’t see LDs getting enough seats (say less than 30) to make a coalition feasible, as things stand.

    I’m not interested in a Lab -LD coalition unless I can walk into my local supermarket and get paprika flavoured crisps. My daughter in the Netherlands pines for salt and vinegar flavoured ones there.

    I want real EU integration as set out in the previous paragraph.

    What is it with supermarket buyers? Don’t they ever travel abroad?

  9. think they’ll get a bit more than 30, but either way, i think there will be “coalition fatigue”…not even sure labour if they get over 300 would go into a full blown coalition with the lib dems, even though ed davey no doubt wants to continue his cabinet career.

    labour’s paymasters, the unions, would be singularly unimpressed by a labour party going into bed with the lib dems…not sure they’d stand for it…the left of the labour party- diane abbott et al.- would revolt…

    among the lib dems, tim farron, despite his leftist tendencies, has publicly said a period of opposition would be good for them.

    the tory right have openly said they don’t want one. I can’t really see any coalition, based on a formal coalition agreement, being formed, tbh.

  10. @ Howard

    I’m an expert on own brand Cheese & Onion crisps, constantly sampling the various packets offered by the supermarkets. Have to say Morrison’s are top of the table at the moment with M & S pushing hard in second, the Co-op being third, Sainsbury fourth, Tesco fifth and Asda a very poor last. Other own brand crisps are available, I think.

    If the SNP and LD’s end up with 50 to 60 seats between them it’s going to be very difficult for either Con or Labour to get an OM.

  11. My impression from being at the last two Labour Party conferences was that there is absolutely no chance of Labour going into coalition with the LibDems. There was a tangible visceral hatred that included not just the Unions and the Left Wing but the leadership and the normally more moderate as well. I had the distinct impression that Labour would rather go into coalition with the Conservatives than the LibDems!

    Also from the LibDem point of view, they would have to do a number of 100% u-turns and vote to repeal the Health & Social Care Act and the bedroom tax amongst many other issues. And what would they do on Student Fees!?

    Of course, the prospect of being in power may overcome all this on both sides but, certainly from the Labour Party point of view, it would cause so much discontent it wouldn’t be worth the candle.

  12. Bantams
    This is useful comment, thanks. In Holland, I have seen cheese and onion flavoured mislabeled as ‘CheeseUnion’ which was a pleasant concept of EU cordiality. Danish Blue mislabeled ‘DennisBleu’ caused a chuckle.

  13. My impression from being at the last two Labour Party conferences was that there is absolutely no chance of Labour going into coalition with the LibDems.

    They might well say that, but if the electorate give them a barely minority Government number of seats in 2015, all outcomes are possible.

    An unwelcome option sometimes becomes the only option if that is what circumstance dictates.

  14. With regard to Scotland, I do think that far too many people are taking for granted that it will not make much difference in the event of a No vote. Although not all Yes voters are SNP by any means and some SNP voters will choose No, there does seem to be a process of consolidation going on. Yes voters seem more likely to support the SNP at all levels of election than perhaps in the past.

    So many of those who might have voted for them just at Holyrood may now support them at Westminster too, at least in 2015. Certainly Survation, who are the only pollster regularly asking Westminster VI regularly show the SNP leading, if not by much.

    It’s also worth pointing out that most Scots are now in the position that while they have a Labour MP, they an SNP (Constituency) MSP and that may itself help in building up the SNP’s credibility in terms of Westminster as well as the associated organisational benefits. For many usual Labour voters as well, seeing Labour in alliance in the No campaign with the hated Tories may be enough to make them withdraw support (it hasn’t worked out well for the Lib Dems after all).

    Of course consolidation may help the No side as well. It’s notable in local by-elections that the SNP are getting comparatively few transfers under STV. Conservatives will rather transfer to Labour, something that would probably not have happened a few years ago. Hence the common situation where the SNP can top the poll on first preferences, but still not get elected.

    But topping the poll in the first round is all you need to do to get elected to Westminster. So unless Anyone But Nats becomes a common thing and overwhelms all other negative voting, then they could well pick up many seats next year, when feelings are still strong from the Referendum. 20-30 seats is a possibility and they could well outnumber the Lib Dems.

  15. @Martyn

    You’re right, I hadn’t seen your modded post; I have it now.

    However, you must also have missed my post of 3.20pm yesterday. Given that, you may wish to resubmit.

  16. The failure of AV dealt an early blow to the prospect of LD becoming the party of permanent coalition government. Even if continued polling collapse means FPTP is no longer such a disadvantage to them, LDs appear to have failed to convince voters that coalition government is an unqualified good.

    Both Labour and Conservative will be campaigning to form a majority government. That luxury is denied to LDs. They will be pressed on which party they would prefer to support (most seats/most votes etc), and their manifesto (which is being prepared with possible coalitions in mind) will be examined for any and every hint on that score.

    Who exactly is the ‘neither Labour or Conservatives can be trusted to govern alone’ line aimed at? The pool of Ukip voters is unlikely to consider that LDs would moderate Con or Lab policies in any way they would find acceptable. Which brings us back to the old fashioned ABL/ABT tactical voter – but why vote LD when doing so might facilitate the very thing you are trying to prevent?

  17. @ Roger Mexico

    If SNP were to get 30 or even 33 seats by the latest poll prediction it means a 20ish seat loss for Labour which would mean they would have to make about 30+ gains from Con in England just to pull level. Based on projections at the moment the chances are Con are likely to make more gains from us than Labour are so more gains will be needed.

  18. Bantams
    Who’s ‘us’?

    One is not supposed to know on here you know.

  19. “not even sure labour if they get over 300 would go into a full blown coalition with the lib dems”

    I’m absolutely certain they won’t.

  20. Single Party minority Government. After May 8th 2015, I think.

    Blue is the Colour , I think.

  21. @ Howard

    Raving Monster Loony Party, it certainly feels like it to me at times. I let my mask slip there.

  22. Correction
    – ‘who are ‘us’?

  23. @MOG

    I forgot to apologise for not putting in a submission to your competition. I don’t make forecasts (i.e. guesses).

  24. BANTAMS

    Re your Welsh results I see the Cons still holding 8 seats; given that Cardiff North is already in the bag for Labour, what seat are the Tories going to gain to compensate for that?

  25. Chrislane1945 I think it will be Labour as largest party as the electoral arithmetic is against the conservatives….

  26. @ Paul A

    You might be right but I would suggest there aren’t any marginal seats that can be considered in the bag for any party. In the last poll which is the one I used Con are only 1% down in Wales on 2010. Out of interest does Ashcroft take shy Tories into account on his polls?

  27. John Curtice is always worth reading on Scottish polls.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/07/panelbase-still-put-no-ahead/

    He does note that the fieldwork for this poll ended just before the Commonwealth Games. Will that make a difference?

    “Time will tell” as AW regularly reminds us.

  28. @Billy Bob
    “The pool of Ukip voters is unlikely to consider that LDs would moderate Con or Lab policies in any way they would find acceptable. Which brings us back to the old fashioned ABL/ABT tactical voter – but why vote LD when doing so might facilitate the very thing you are trying to prevent?”

    Perhaps these ABL/ABT voters might go to UKIP?

    In the poll, I was interested in the finding that the public blame both sides equally in the Israel-Gaza conflict. The impression I have from online discussions and even mainstream media is that the prevailing feeling was that Israel is mainly to blame. It seems the great British public has more sense. Polls are very useful in showing the true views of the public rather than just those who shout the loudest.

  29. Well,
    I agree with Wolf that 2015 will be a good election to lose.The mountain of debt
    will still remain,interest rates will begin to rise and the battle of Europe will really begin.Never mind any outside events that may effect matters.Whoever
    wins will be drinking from a poisoned chalice.IMO.

  30. Er….Cardiff North is in the bag for labour!

    Paddy Power 1/7 labour
    ladbrokes 1/5 labour

    you should put money on the tories, you might quintuple your money, if you’re right.

  31. A headline in the BBC site says ‘Strip Russia of World Cup – Clegg’.

    I thought, ‘Wot, even if they win it?.

  32. @Pressman “There will be personal attacks, the question of who leads is the Tory trump card and all the Right wing press will bang this home night and day.”

    You seem to believe that the ‘right-wing’ press have an indisputable influence on these matters. If that is the case, why aren’t the tories 5 points in front?

    The truth is that the days of the press dictating who gets into No. 10 are long gone. They couldn’t ‘give’ Cameron a majority in 2010 and the certainly won’t be able to in 2015.

  33. CL45

    “Single Party minority Government. After May 8th 2015, I think.

    Blue is the Colour , I think.”

    Thankyou Chris. Have started new book and noted that down.

    Its reminiscent of a Harry and Paul sketch in which H keeps persuading P to change his mind and then doing the reverse and then back again, again, again.

    Anyway, that’s a settled “think” now is it?

    LOL.

  34. “A headline in the BBC site says ‘Strip Russia of World Cup – Clegg’.

    I thought, ‘Wot, even if they win it?.”

    ESPECIALLY if the buggers win it.

  35. One way a Lib-Lab coalition might be acceptable to Labour members would be if it basically involved torturing the Lib Dems by lowering tuition fees, repealing the Bedroom Tax and the NHS Act. In return they could give up some negotiable positions like drug law reform or a referendum on PR for local elections (which loads of Labour members support anyway).

    Of course that would require the Lib Dems to be gullible enough to accept that kind of deal for some minor ministerial offices and a couple of cabinet members. I’d say they don’t strike me as such but they do have previous form.

  36. Mr Nameless

    ” In return they [Labour] could give up some negotiable positions like drug law reform or a referendum on PR for local elections”

    There was previous discussion about the need for elected people to campaign for parties, in the absence of mass memberships.

    I don’t think many Labour members in Scotland think that STV in local elections did them any favours in maximising their force of Labour councillors.

    Losing, in 2007, 32% of the councillors they had under FPTP was an organisational blow to Labour (though a democratic gain for the electorate).

  37. Paul A & Bantams

    The answer to the Q on a likely Conservative gain in Wales at GE is Brecon & Radnor – needs >5% swing from Libdems. Tories last won it in 1992. Labour and Plaid not in serious contention.

  38. Just catching up after a day at Silverstone and an evening catching up with L.Hamilton heroics and the Test Match

    @Stutter
    “for all their success with the economy and liberal reforms”
    Without wishing into an un-UKPR debate I would question descriptions of the economy as success – at best, debatable. Equally ‘liberal reforms’ will appeal to some but be anathema to others.

    Re Lab attitudes to PR in locals: round here we all felt rather triumphant after the local success. But on sober reflection I’d question whether a council with 51 Lab and 9 Con (or 90 Lab and no others as I believe is the case in Manchester) is good for the Borough or even for Lab: in the absence of opposition, an opposition is created from friends.

  39. Guymonde

    I spent the morning at the Quarter-Finals of the Rugby 7s Medals Competition (as well as the excellent Bowl & Shield competitions, which allowed the eliminated teams further games on Day 2).

    South Africa were fantastic, and well worthy of their subsequent gold Medal.

    Your point about whether electoral dominance under FPTP is “good” for the people, or even the dominant party, is worth making.

    Sadly, however, decisions on such matters are essentially made by party apparatchiks, whose concentration is frequently just on winning (only a cynic would suggest that their personal advancement within the hierarchy was dominant in such thinking – but then, I am a cynic about political parties).

  40. It seems some people had the idea that coalition might be a moderating influence.

    And it may be, under some electoral systems. Under ours though, it seems it tends toward the opposite.

    If you have an electoral system whereby coalition is more the norm, and minor parties may expect to be in government somehow, it’s more a question of who they choose to side with, and when they typically have more than one option, then a minor party has bargaining power and can be a moderating influence. This may be amplified when having to form a coalition with more than one other party.

    If however you have a situation where, realistically, they only have a choice between either backing the largest party wholesale or else not being in government at all (since the largest party will otherwise simply prefer to go it alone and go for another election a little down the line after some populist measures), then there’s quite the pressure on the minor party to cave to the larger, even though the larger party did not get a full and proper mandate in the first place.

    This problem is not solved by AV, hence little surprise it did not arouse the enthusiasm of the electorate, once they had seen how the coalition thing works in practice outside of wartime.

  41. @Howard

    Now, see, to me, paprika-flavoured crisps in your local Tescos might be a sign of the End of Days…

    (And what’s this? Martyn’s in premod? Martyn??!!? What’s the world coming to??…)

  42. @carfrew

    It looks likely that the “He went into a room to convince 27 other people that he was right…he seems to have convinced just one” post of June 26th may have initiated pre-mod for Martyn… if so it’s 32 days and counting.

    Questioning moderation would have been be a further crime of course (though we wouldn’t know if that is what happened).

  43. Will the announcements on fracking have any effect on the polls ?

    The South & South East Tory heartlands are said to be sitting on vast reserves of shale gas so will those constituents be delighted to have the necessary drilling nearby & the will the fact that permission is not required to access the gas under their property ensure they continue to tick the box marked conservative ?

    I do think this is an area that has the potential to upset the current polling.

  44. @Bramley

    I don’t think the net effect will be noticeable. It will upset some but please others that production will start sooner.

  45. “Will the announcements on fracking have any effect on the polls ?
    The South & South East Tory heartlands are said to be sitting on vast reserves of shale gas so will those constituents be delighted to have the necessary drilling nearby & the will the fact that permission is not required to access the gas under their property ensure they continue to tick the box marked conservative ?
    I do think this is an area that has the potential to upset the current polling.”

    One possible scenario is that the current govt will do nothing serious on fracking until after the GE.

    If after GE 2015 we have a Lab or Lab-lead govt and it decides to push on with fracking in the south east I can only imagine that it will further convince that part of the country it must vote Tory to have any chance of saving civilisation itself.

  46. “Losing, in 2007, 32% of the councillors they had under FPTP was an organisational blow to Labour (though a democratic gain for the electorate).”

    In England & Wales I imagine it could affect the Tories as much as Labour, though, so might be more acceptable to Labour activists.

  47. Fracking. I think it’s a trap. Labour has to either p-off its environmental left or sound like it’s not standing up to Putin.

  48. Labour activist attitudes to local PR would vary wildly but basically would be split on urban/rural lines. Certainly the membership of Surrey or Oxfordshire Labour would like to have some councillors for once but Manchester and Liverpool might not like losing their fortresses.

  49. I support STV in multi-member wards elected every 4 years.

    Manchester, Newcastle etc would benefit from some Con councillors as would Surrey from labour ones.

    Trouble with elections in 3 years out of 4 is instability in swing councils with protest votes against the Central Government leading to yo-yo control.

  50. “Trouble with elections in 3 years out of 4 is instability in swing councils with protest votes against the Central Government leading to yo-yo control.”

    Those aren’t obligatory, though – it’s the choice of individual councils. Bristol’s in the process of switching to four-yearly elections.

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