This week’s YouGov results for the Sunday Times are up here. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% – a Labour lead of one point

28% now think the economy is in a good state, 36% a bad state. It’s still negative, but it’s creeping ever upwards – 28% is the highest YouGov have recorded since they started asking the question in 2010. Similarly on people’s own economic optimism, 19% expect their household finances to get better over the next twelve months, 31% expect them to continue to get worse – the net figure (“the feel good factor”) of minus 12 is still negative, but it’s the least negative YouGov have recorded since 2010.

YouGov also reasked some questions on Gaza that they initially asked a week ago. Public opinion has moved slightly towards the Palestinians – a week ago 23% said they were more sympathetic towards the Palestinians, now it’s 27%, but the broad picture remains the same: most people aren’t more favourable to either side, both sides are considered equally to blame for civilian casualties, and both sides’ actions are considered unjustified.

The Sunday Times also had a new Panelbase poll on the Scottish referendum. Topline figures are YES 41%, NO 48%. Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 46%. Panelbase use slightly different wordings for their polls for the Sunday Times and for Yes Scotland, and it’s unclear whether they make a slight difference to the results or not. It doesn’t make much difference to the trend either way: since March Panelbase’s level of YES support has been steady at 46%-48%.


129 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 35, LAB 36, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Roger – I guess the decision should stay local but my preference is for 4 yearly.

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  2. I’m playing ‘Presidential’ Bingo these days, this involves listening to broadcasts involving Conservative spokespersons and shouting Bingo ! every time they say that General Elections are becoming more ‘Presidential’.
    Two questions come immediately to mind, first, do we have any polling evidence to support this view i.e. do people generally think that our electoral process is becoming more ‘Presidential’ and subsidiary to that, do they like this/think it’s a good idea?
    The second question is, has anybody told the Queen?

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  3. Colin
    That’s a bit of an odd comment for what is a polling website, where I have asked for polling information !
    [Snip]

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  4. You’ll score more for ‘hardworking’.

    “spokespersons”

    spokespeople?

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  5. Hardworking families – aargh.

    What about families that don’t want to work hard – they don’t want to shirk and be lazy they just want to work reasonably and be reasonably paid.

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  6. RogerH
    I’ll stick with persons.

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  7. Ewen – whether people think elections are becoming more presidential or not wouldn’t be evidence one way or the other (people have a pretty poor understanding of what drives our decision making anyway, I suspect the general public’s opinion of what drove voting intentions at previous elections and how that compares to be more recent elections is not well informed).

    I suspect the question is extremely hard to answer in practice. For leader perceptions as a driver of voting intention you’d need to do driver analysis on the BES data of past elections using whatever questions have been asked in a consistent way over a long period of time and see if leader perceptions have become more or less of a factor in determining voting intention or stayed roughly the same. People may well very have done that (if there is enough consistent data I’d be surprised if they haven’t!), but I can’t think of anything off the top of my head.

    Alternatively I suppose one could look at how elections are reported and covered in the media – over time have elections focused more on leaders and less on policies. It would be a different question, but an interesting one. Again, it would require a huge data crunch though, and I’m not sure if it’s been done.

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  8. This is the Which? Financial Distress Map. It looks as though it could be an invaluable tool in making predictions for the election: http://consumerinsight.which.co.uk/maps

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  9. Our Council elections in Tendring are every four years. The next one is due in 2015 which will make for a very interesting election as it will be the first time I can remember that they have coincided with a General Election. (The last time it as the same year was 1987 but a different day).

    This will make it interesting for two reasons. 1. There should be a much bigger turn-out which I think will affect the result, certainly in the ward I stood in last time and intend to stand in next time. 2. We have a very active local Conservative break-away party called Tendring First, who won seven seats in the 2011 election. I think they will lose out because people will generally be more concentrated on GE day on the main political parties.

    There is an additional ingredient next time and that is that UKIP will probably be putting up candidates for the first time.

    There is another issue with holding them on the same day and that is that candidates in each of the wards will be wanting to concentrate on their wards whereas the GE candidate will be wanting a co- ordinated overall campaign.

    Interesting times….

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  10. Populus:
    Lab 37 (=)
    Con 33 (-2)
    LD 9 (=)
    UKIP 12 (+3)
    Oth 9 (-1)

    Polldrums.

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  11. MR NAMELESS.
    OTH and LD seem rather high. IMO.
    Thanks for the figures.
    Happy holiday polldrums.

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  12. We don’t all get 6-8 weeks holiday Chris (smiley thing).

    Enjoy your chess

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  13. Others in Populus poll includes Greens 5%.

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  14. @ Jim Jam

    After having to suffer yearsunder a Libdem Council I do not think that the people of Newcastle would think they would benefit from a few Conservative councillors. What ever gives you such ideas.

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  15. I found this amusing, the normal description is of course is UKIP, Labour Candidate or something like that.

    Tracey Gough, who contested the Underhill ward of Weymouth and Portland Borough Council for UKIP in May, has been nominated for the Portland Town Council elections to be held on 14 August.
    Gough will be standing in the Portland Tophill West ward, but instead of standing for UKIP has given the ballot paper description, “Blonde, curly hair, grey eyes”.

    On a more serious note I find it strange that UKIP is not defending one of their few council seats in Wales at Merthyr this week.

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  16. Thank you Anthony for responding to my questions regarding the ‘Presidential’-isation, or otherwise of our General Elections .

    It seems to be one of those areas, where political spokespersons can assert whatever they like, secure in the knowledge that they cannot be definitively gain said . And maybe, if said often enough, people believe it anyway.

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  17. Toonie
    “On a more serious note I find it strange that UKIP is not defending one of their few council seats in Wales at Merthyr this week”

    Apparently the vacant seat was won by an Independent who later joined Ukip so it’s not entirely true to say it is a Ukip vacancy.

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  18. Toonie,

    One party states are not good imo and I lived in Gateshead with 56 out of 60 Labour coincillors or something like that.

    The cronyism, in-fighting and squabbling was not good for the people of Gateshead.

    Better a proper opposition.

    Also when Tories in office it is better that some local Councillors are from the same party, same vice versa in Surrey.

    All imo of course

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  19. JIM JAM.
    Gateshead and Merthyr. Safe seats I think.
    Lovely places.

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  20. @ BRAMLEY

    It is true the Coucillor was intially elected as Independent and then defected to UKIP but he then stood at the last election as a official UKIP candidate so it is a UKIP vacancy,

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  21. @ JIM JAM

    My comments were toung in cheek but I am old enough to remember when we had Tory councils in Newcastle and now we have them replaced by the Libdems as the official opposition and in my view no need for Conservatives on the council.

    I would however still support the idea of a PR system for local government elections and therefore might have to put up with one or two Tories in future.

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  22. I’m going to play “crisis” bingo…bet I beat everyone. Even my milkman thinks it is a crisis that his wagon broke down the other morning. The Labour party cannot construct a sentence without using it! As bad as the bloody tories, withtheir ‘hard working people’ and ‘long term economic plan’.

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  23. Couper says — ”Then Scots Yessers are not going to just shrug their shoulders and say ‘Oh well back to voting Lab again’. They will take a while to forgive and forget. ”

    Who will they have to forgive? If you lose a referendum its your fellow members of the public who are to ‘blame’.

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  24. I agree Artair.

    Why can’t the Tories stand up for relatively lazy working people, such as myself?

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  25. “Why can’t the Tories stand up for relatively lazy working people, such as myself?”

    Perhaps it’s too much effort for them to vote.

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  26. Monday, 28 July, 2014

    Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-34-lib-dem-9-ukip-14-green-6/#more-6295

    No one seems to have posted this, I hope it is the right one

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  27. According to Ashcroft

    Lab lead on

    improvements in the NHS

    action to tackle tax avoidance by rich individuals and companies

    action to tackle the rising cost of living

    more houses being built

    lower gas and electricity bills

    Cons lead on

    strong economic growth

    effective action to move people from welfare benefits into work

    a significant fall in immigration to the UK

    a referendum on whether Britain should remain a member of the EU

    higher taxes for people like you

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  28. Toonie

    Ah ok, I missed the bit where he had stood again under the ukip banner – apols.

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  29. Land Registry figures show house prices in E&W static overall in June compared to May, with falls in 7 of 10 regions. Another survey this morning suggested a very sharp drop in house price sentiment among consumers.

    It seems fairly clear that the housing market is softening significantly, and quickly. The fascinating question will be whether this spills over into general consumer sentiment or not.

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