Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%. The three point Labour lead is typical of this week’s YouGov polls, which have all shown 3-4 point leads.

A couple more things to flag up, earlier in the week YouGov repeated their question asking people to put the parties and their leaders on a left-right spectrum. There isn’t much change since it was last asked. Labour are still seen as more centrist than the Conservatives, Cameron a little more right-wing than Miliband is left-wing. Cameron is seen as marginally to the left of his party, Miliband bang in line with his. In that sense Ed Miliband isn’t seen as some wild left winger (certainly not compared to the right-wingness of the Tories), but note that he is seen as far more left-wing than his predecessors: Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were both seen as significantly more centrist than the party they led. There are some very nice graphs of the data here.

While it’s not really about polls regular readers will know my sideline in boundary changes. While the boundary review for the coming election was cancelled the changes the government made weren’t repealed, just delayed. The process will start again automatically in 2015, so the issue will inevitably raise its head after the next election with either the Boundary Commissions starting a new review under the new rules, or the government legislating to change the rules again. Johnston, Rossiter & Pattie – the foremost scholars of British boundary redistributions – have published a new paper aimed at informing that debate, looking at whether slightly increasing the tolerance from 5% to 8%, encouraging the Boundary Commissions to split more wards, or sticking with 650 seats would reduce the level of disruption (spoilers: the first two would, the latter wouldn’t). It’s summarised here, and the full report is here.


253 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 38, LD 8, UKIP 11”

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  1. first??

  2. I presume UKIP is not prompted? But are they treated different in the follow up for smaller parties, i.e. Is there a long list, a write in box or short list with another other (other) at the end?

  3. a lot of 38s recently

  4. Relatively good Con score tonight, somewhat at variance with other pollsters. I can’t help thinking that this is the key number now. If Cons really at at 35% now, then that isn’t too bad a position to make a decent challenge in 2015. However, if they are more like 31% or 32%, it’s really much harder to envisage them gaining largest party status.

  5. Combined Labour and Tory score of 73%.

    Hmmmm.

    …as they say in these parts.

    :-)

  6. Up on 2010!

  7. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28439518

    The 21st century in Pakistan.

    Is there any answer? Personally I would cease any business with countries that allow such madness.

  8. AW: I noticed your reason for not including TNS-BMRB on the last thread. Does seem a bit odd for them to not even record the preference of 1 voter in 20 (or so).

    Any chance that you could reveal Greens rating in tonight’s YG, or do I have to go ferreting on the YG site yet again tomorrow? And could we have an update of the rolling average graph sometime, please?

    @Spearmint – I did look,but I can’t find any studies that look at differential turnout among first time (non) voters. It might be possible to analyse British Election Study data, but since I don’t have SPSS or STATA, or the desire to learn how to use R, I will have to leave the question unanswered about why it is that cohorts appear to be more pro-tory at the first election and then swing relatively strongly away from the tories for the next election.

  9. …oh and I haven’t lost interest in this question, just because our genial host was writing a new post as I was writing it…

    Seeing the news, I start to wonder: has there been any polling on attitudes to Israel/Palestine? – I have a feeling that attitudes will have shifted over the last 30-40 years, but don’t know if I’m right on that.

  10. @Rosieandaisie

    You vote UKIP then?

  11. @Ben Foley (11.19)

    I have been wondering the same thing. When I heard Hammond earlier today blaming Hamas with virtually no condemnation of Israel, I have to question am I the only person who would introduce immediate sanctions against Israel until they stop the shelling and lift the blockade. IMO the UN should advise key Israeli leaders that they will be charged with war crimes unless they cease the bombing tomorrow.

    I would be very interested to see polling on the subject.

  12. @Peter Bell

    In answer to your question: No, you’re not.

  13. mister wolf

    “@Rosieandaisie

    You vote UKIP then?”

    Daisie os oany won !!!!!

    She used to be a wolf a long time ago by the way…. you wouldn’t think it to look at her; she’s quite little.

    rose

  14. Ben/Peter/Phil

    One can understand the bitterness (& hatred) from both sides in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. Trying really hard, one can even empathise with both positions to some extent.

    However, it is as difficult to see the current Israeli campaign in Gaza as “proportionate”, just as Dresden, Lidice or Nagasaki seem disproportionate responses in WWII.

    That bitter conflicts will override any humanitarian values seems inevitable.

    What is not clear is why the USA and its allies have a knee jerk reaction to support Israel, regardless of humanity. “National interest” is often quoted as a reason for supporting regimes which behave “inappropriately”. What is the UK’s interest in supporting Israel? I have seen no explanation.

    I’ve often asked the question of friends/family in the USA, but the responses as to why the US is so keen to fund Israel’s military seem inadequate. eg

    1. “Israel is a democracy, and the USA supports democracy” : Yeah, that bears even cursory examination!
    2. Jews are a critical group who determine US elections. I suspect those who take that line haven’t crunched the numbers – or can explain why US policy remains constant regardless of administration
    3. “Lots of Christians welcome the ‘Rapture’ which will see them raised bodily to Heaven, while us sinners suffer Armageddon, which requires a (nuclear) war starting in Palestine” – Jeez! I know there a lot of religious nutters in the USA, but do they determine US foreign policy?

  15. first time comment from me a political anorak who lives in marginal tory held seat I can not see how the LD defectors to labour will go back to mr clegg so I can logically assume there will be a labour majority in 2015 and given the venom against milliband from the rightwing press I just think considering the newspapers antics over the years will just push more people into the labour camp sorry pressman the kitchen sink will not be enough

  16. What is happening in Gaza is disgusting. As is the spectacle of the western democracies sitting on their hands whilst the bodies pile up.

    Absolutely sickening.

  17. @Old Nat (12.54)

    Your point re the US is very relevant.

    I have thought for a long time that if the US were to withdraw financial and military support then the Israeli position would become more conciliatory and that they would accept a two state solution based on the borders pre 1967 as indicated in UN resolution 242. In the past, I had believed that under these conditions Hamas could be persuaded to also accept the two state solution which would mean an end to the rocket attacks. However, after the current massacre of civilians there may be too much hatred for this to happen. Regardless, the US has to stop supporting Israel unconditionally.

    As I said earlier, it would be interesting to see a poll on the level of support for Israel as I suspect that politicians are totally out of step with the public.

  18. @Oldnat

    I read somewhere that 85% Americans are Christians and 50% of them believe that the second coming will occur in their lifetime. As I understand it, war in the middle east and against the home of the Jewish people, were foretold in the bible as the circumstances heralding the Rapture.

    Sounds rather a high % (not to mention staggeringly narcissistic).

  19. @Peter Bell

    Sunny Hundal quotes some YouGov polling showing that Only 15% of Britons think Israeli air-strikes on Gaza are justified.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/israel-has-fallen-into-a-hamas-trap/

    ‘..Internationally, Israel is becoming a pariah state, backed stridently only by the United States. Two years ago, a global survey by the BBC found that Israel was among the most negatively-rated countries in the world, sitting alongside Iran, Pakistan and North Korea. Attitudes towards Israel were on a downward trajectory, with around 68% of Britons viewing the country negatively and only 16% positively. Germans and Spanish rated it even more negatively, while Australians and South Koreans weren’t far behind.’

  20. @Syzygy (from a coupla threads ago…)

    Yes, enjoyed chatting, especially ‘cos can’t help noticing the impact of some of this stuff. People on the board express concerns about offspring and grandkids with issues getting decent jobs… lately I’ve been hearing graduates telling me of their options, and seeing their efforts to make something happen… it’s a lot harder than it used to be.

    On the TINA thing, there were some differences between Nulab’s approach and that of Tories, notably the propensity to act to try and maintain demand in a downturn, and the redistributive actions. When it comes to the advice politicians seek, this is indeed a big part of the problem… in wartime, when one cannot afford to get it wrong or take risks for personal or political advantage, they had a tendency to put in charge the impartial best and leave them to it.

    In peacetime, they don’t necessarily do that, which is why business now wants big infrastructure decisions taken out of the party political manoeuverings. State action is required, but you need to divorce it from those who will screw it up. It may well be that more and more action from the state may be required on the issue of jobs in the future, as software modelling and decision-making reaches increasingly into the realms of white collar work, and eventually robotics covers more of the other bases. As things stand, the digital revolution has seen big productivity gains, but the fruits of these are being hoovered up at the top as the elites compete with each other.

  21. @Howard

    Appreciate the concern about stereotyping; one hoped that gardens might not yield something too provocative. Yes, can see that “Save the Whale” and “No Hawkers” might provide some info., though not sure if signs on doors or gates qualify as “garden” as such. Still, maybe one could mess with it and put multiple signs up saying “Save the Hawker” and “No Whales”…

  22. SYZYGY

    As a counter to your piece about Israel there is a splendid article by my favourite commentator in the DM today which puts Israel’s case perfectly.

  23. TOH

    The points made about the location of Hamas’ rocket launchers is certainly food for thought when civilian casualties are focused on.
    And the comparison of the daily number of rockets with the WW11 VI barrage is an eye opener.

    One wonders what the total comparative casualty figures would be in this conflict if Israel didn’t have Iron Dome ?

  24. In this mornings cYG poll, Con 2010 to UKIP is down to 12%. It was 17% only a few polls ago.

  25. Colin

    I suspect that there would have been many more Israeli deaths.

    I am old enough to remember the revelations about the death camps in 1945. Is anybody surprised that Israel has vowed to defend itself organisations which deny its right to exists. We all deplore the loss of civilian life but whose fault is it?

    I am also not in the least surprised by the rise of antisemitism in parts of Europe, it never really went away. Its one of many reasons why I do not consider myself European.

  26. This piece from a Guardian article on the spurned Egyptian peace initiative is an interesting peek into attitudes on Gaza’s southern border.

    ” In an example of Egyptians’ unusually mixed reaction to the Gaza conflict, a cartoon in Egypt’s leading private broadsheet newspaper on Wednesday portrayed Hamas’s leadership as rejecting Egypt’s mediation out of spite.

    “We listened to you and refused the Egyptian initiative,” a cartoon Hamas leader says into a telephone. “Send us a Qatari or Turkish initiative that we can approve of right away.” “

  27. TOH

    There are some nasty incidents appearing in France & Austria recently.

    I cannot see an end to this – Hamas is attacking the State of Israel & its very existence. The rockets are indiscriminate & meant to kill civilians.
    Israel is targeting Hamas in defence, but killing Palestinians because of Hamas’ logistics & , no doubt, operational mistakes.
    Hamas ousted Fatah in a bloody sectarian fight-then got elected to power in Gaza. !

  28. Colin

    I agree its difficult to see anything other than another, temporary, cease-fire being the best that can be hoped for at the moment.

  29. “As I understand it, war in the middle east and against the home of the Jewish people, were foretold in the bible as the circumstances heralding the Rapture.”

    Most Christian denominations (amillennialists) treat passages of prophetic imagery with caution and interpret them in terms of symbology. These passages can also seen as figurative, but referring to events that have already taken place, such as the destruction of Jerusalem (70 AD).

    Fundamentalists take the bible literally, and consequently can’t agree an interpretation. Millenarian cults sweep through Europe and the US on a fairly regular basis.

  30. @Syzygy
    thanks

    http://www.globescan.com/news-and-analysis/press-releases/press-releases-2014/315-negative-views-of-russia-on-the-rise-global-survey.htmln gives Isreal a net rating of -32 in the global survey published in June, largely stable since 2007.

    Interesting still not what I was looking for, though.

    But it did help me find the YG –
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fa82741m47/YG-Archive-140721-Israel-Palestine.pdf

    However, what interests me is historical shifts over several decades, and YG weren’t polling in the 1980s.

  31. GDP Q2 2014
    vs prior qtr +0.8%
    yoy +3.1%

    Despite a dip in Q2 Construction.

  32. “This is interesting…”

    The winner certainly enjoys his parties – LibDem, Labour and now UKIP.

  33. ROGERH

    lol

  34. GDP increased by 0.8% in Q2 2014, the second consecutive quarter on quarter increase of 0.8%.

    Output increased by 1.0% in services and by 0.4% in production. However, output decreased by 0.5% in construction and by 0.2% in agriculture.

    In more detail of the 0.8 increase contributions were

    Business services and finances 0.4
    Hotels and Restaurants 0.2
    Transport and Communication 0.1
    Government services 0.05
    Production 0.05

    Very roughly

    It looks to me as if at least half the growth in Q2 is coming from the financial strength of London

    And as for Markit, way out on their predictions in 2 out of 3 areas – decline in construction, almost flat in manufacturing says ONS – , but Markit’s service prediction is quite good, so I won’t completely dismiss that part

  35. @Colin

    It’s interesting that if Labour increases its general election vote share over 2010 by the same 13.6% that it achieved in that Doncaster ward last night, it’ll capture 43.3% of all GB votes in 2015.

  36. Oh and the ONS is making some pretty big assumptions about bounce back from a poor May.

    Growth in the 3 main areas for June

    Services to growth by 0.2 %
    Production to growth by 0.4%
    Construction by a hefty 1.0%

    ONS are usually good at this though – average change from first to second estimate of GDP is 0.1%

  37. @TOH

    I know it’s tempting to lapse into a state of awe and reverence when great minds like Richard Littlejohn pronounce on world affairs, but forgive me if I remain a little circumspect.

    The recent bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza is doing great damage to the Israeli cause. Even if they calibrated their strategy purely in propaganda terms, and the hideous loss of life should relegate such considerations anyway, then can’t they see how these images from Gaza are playing in the wider world? One of the most advanced and heavily armed military machines on the planet bombing civilians and killing women and children seeking refuge in UN shelters and receiving treatment in hospitals. Before I even ponder the political arguments involved, that’s just barbaric inhumanity that no allegedly civilised country should be perpetrating on other human beings. Israel should be condemned unreservedly for this, not having their actions justified by convoluted arguments about their perpetual victim-hood. Yes, Hamas is essentially a terrorist organisations that is hell bent on destroying the Israeli state, but they have no political or military chance of ever achieving that aim and to compare their rudimentary rocket launching from Gaza, impotent against Israeli defence systems, with what Israel are doing in response is, quite frankly, a repulsive distortion.

    Israel should be told, as if it doesn’t know already, that there is no end to what they’ve started. Hamas will feed off the wave of sympathy, not only from the moderate Arab world, but from many other countries too, and lasting peace in the region will prove more elusive than ever. Emotionally, I have enormous sympathy for the entity that is the state of Israel, and the tragic history and suffering that lies behind its creation, but none of that can justify what they’re doing in Gaza or their belligerent attitude towards settlements on the West Bank and the very idea of a Palestinian state. I’m almost of the view that I forgive them for they know not what they do.

    Israel cannot and will not live in peace until it finds a political settlement that determines how it can co-exist with its Arab neighbours. Almost intractable, I know, and as hellishly difficult as that will be to achieve, talking and negotiating is the only way. All they’re doing now is stoking an inferno that may one day consume them. It’s desperate folly that shouldn’t be applauded anywhere, certainly not in the civilised world.

  38. A question: Given that Gaza is very densely populated, how possible is it to lauch missiles from somewhere that is not near homes, schools or hospitals?

  39. CB11

    …………and what should Hamas do-or do you only give advice to Israel ?

  40. Any speculation in the next hour as to what this might be about? https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/492600282673856512

  41. @MrNameless

    The Indie has used a misleading headline there. Various groups are considered low-participation at university and therefore suitable targets for widening participation initiatives, but much of the efforts have been focussed on the ethnicity component (partly because it’s relatively easy to convince middle-class BME students to go to university).

    However, young people from less advantaged social class backgrounds – your DEs in advertising parlance – are also missing out, and the large majority of those young people are white.

    This is merely a sensible recognition that fair access to HE is not merely a matter of ethnicity.

  42. ROBIN

    I think the question is not-how do you do it by not compromising civilians-but why do you do it at all.?

  43. YouGov: “What is your preferred cruising speed on the motorway?”

    0-64mph: Con 13, Lab 20, LD 23, UKIP 21, Total 16.
    65-74mph: Con 46, Lab 46, LD 48, UKIP 39, Total 45.
    75+mph: Con 41, Lab 34, LD 29, UKIP 40, Total 37.

    Greens aren’t included ‘cos they’re all on bikes. But what does this tell us about the parties and their supporters?

  44. YouGov: “What is your preferred cruising speed on the motorway?”

    0-64mph: Con 13, Lab 20, LD 23, UKIP 21, Total 16.
    65-74mph: Con 46, Lab 46, LD 48, UKIP 39, Total 45.
    75+mph: Con 41, Lab 34, LD 29, UKIP 40, Total 37.

    Greens aren’t included ‘cos they’re all on bikes. But what does this tell us about the parties and their supporters?

    ————————-

    Kippers and Tories have better cars?

  45. mrnameless

    Any speculation in the next hour as to what this might be about?

    https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/492600282673856512

    Hacked account again? (2:20am come on)

    Mind given how well the owls policy went down….

  46. Here’s a long article about the leader of the opposition’s wife.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/17/justine-miliband-profile-thornton_n_5594835.html

    All the main parties leaders wives sound like impressive women – I think they should all swop roles with their husbands.

    I wonder how different politics would be if they were the prime minister, the leader of the opposition and the deputy prime minister.

  47. I appreciate this will sound controversial, but it is intended only as an observation, not as a desired wish.

    For many, many years of depressing Middle East conflict, I’ve found myself completely unable to understand the thought processes on either (all, to avoid a simplistic binary analysis) side. As with images of the IRA blowing up English pubs, I find myself perpetually asking myself ‘do they really think this will bring them closer to the objectives they claim to want’?

    As with many other conflicts, in some ways, I think the combatants actually want conflict – it gives them and their leaders a sense of importance and status that they would find much more difficult to maintain if they were dealing with the humdrum of life, like education, health services, and fixing potholes in the roads.

    My own default position for all conflicts is that any peace requires a political settlement, otherwise it will only be a temporary cessation, until the militarily defeated feel strong enough to once again wage war.

    In the Middle East, I can’t help feeling that the grossly asymmetric level of warfighting hardware and technology is a key problem. While Israel faces threats, the physical impacts of these are relatively minor. That’s not to diminish the impact of the occasional rocket that breaches the iron dome, or the terror of suicide bus bombings – but in terms of targeting, reach and effectiveness of killing, Hamas and their ilk are simply not a match for the Israeli armed forces.

    In that, I find myself identifying the cornerstone of the problem. Israel simply feels no need to reach a political settlement. To them, the risks are relatively limited, and the consequences of continuing the armed stand off are consequently endurable, if painful and frightening at times.

    And so to the controversial bit. Please don’t all shoot me down, but I can’t help feeling that if Hamas had the ability to destroy Israeli tanks, shoot down helicopters, knock fighters out of the sky and destroy missile batteries on the ground, we would have seen a political settlement long, long ago.

    Perhaps the understandable western military and financial support for Israel is actually perpetuating the conflict by allowing them to tolerate the current situation as a sort of stability? The risks they face are containable, and the required sacrifices (of which there obviously are) are sufficiently balanced in the decision making nexus.

  48. Mr Nameless
    (motorway speeds).

    You have heard of the name ‘Clarkson’, I assume.

    Actually I found the results not too environmentally discouraging (disregarding party breakdown). I suspect cost of fuel will have more influence than party allegiance on its own.

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