The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1), GRN 4%. Changes are from ComRes’s last poll a month ago, and don’t show any significant movement.

I sometimes see people asking if asking “if there was an election tomorrow” produces different results from “the next election in May 2015”. ComRes did a split sample this month asking and asked the two halves with the two different wordings: there was no significant difference. Asking about next May produced a Tory score one point higher, UKIP two points lower… but these differences could easily be normal sample error (especially given they were only to half sized samples).

If you really wanted to test if the different wordings had any effect you’d need to test on a much bigger scale to differentiate any effect from normal sample error, especially since any difference is likely to be small. Personally I doubt it does make any difference, but would always ask “tomorrow” on principle, just to emphasize that a poll really is a snapshot of opinion NOW, not a prediction of opinion next year.

Opinium’s fortnightly poll in the Observer is also out tonight, and they have toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1).


53 Responses to “Latest ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. LibDem surge with their vote up by more than 25%!

  2. Carfew
    I responded about immigration at the end of the last thread

  3. This issue of “snapshot of opinion NOW, not a prediction of opinion next year.” brings to mind my unhappiness with pollsters that have reallocated a proportion of ‘dont knows’. If even being asked questions like ‘who are you most likely to’ or similar doesn’t get them to come off the fence, a poll that is about opinion now, or ‘voting intention’ surely should accept they are truly ‘dont know’ and leave them as such. Reallocating (eg by past vote) is surely an attempt at predicting how they will vote.

  4. I do wonder, with UKIP being a cause rather than just a party, if these results reflect their determination to promote their message rather than their actual numbers. Their is no such thing as a shy UKIP supporter.

  5. There

  6. Labour really should be further ahead than this….it all points at small Tory majority next May, methinks.

  7. “Labour really should be further ahead than this….it all points at small Tory majority next May, methinks.”

    Oh yeah, based on historical trends

    So which seats will the Tories take off Labour? Because even if they win a dozen from LDs that ain’t gonna be enough.

  8. Jasper ,
    And I like that old Tudor name,I am afraid that we have heard that point of view many times before.And many arguments why it is not relevant.

  9. On the Indy referendum, I wonder if it would be fair to say that all other things being equal a majority of Scots are on balance positive about the union but suspicious about the unionists?

    And the problem in the equation is that all other things just cannot be equal – you cannot have the union without giving victory to the unionists, and you cannot oppose the unionists without voting for independence…

  10. Nigel

    Nobody pretends it will be easy particularly with an increased labour share but it can be done with the kitchen sink thrown at the more fickle Kippers and possible labour voters who have major concerns about miliband.

  11. Abuse allegations against the late Speaker Viscount Tonypandy emerging now, where will it stop?

  12. @Bantams

    Hopefully when the full truth, whatever that maybe, is uncovered.

  13. JASPER22.
    You are right about the small lead for Labour pointing to Cameron winning. I think.

  14. cl45

    “JASPER22.
    You are right about the small lead for Labour pointing to Cameron winning. I think.”

    Right.

    So definitely not labour or a dead heat now then?

    [Just checking]

  15. YouGov:
    LAB – 37% (-2)
    CON – 32% (=)
    UKIP – 13% (=)
    LD – 9% (+1)

  16. “Cameron’s reshuffle causes Labour’s lead to fall”

    Guardian headline after labour lead goes from 6 to 4 over the course of a fortnight.

    Definitely the reshuffle then………………………….

  17. Thank you Mr Nameless for an unusually early view of the Sunday Times poll. I thought they were leak-proof. Have you been hacking some phones??

    The ComRes, Opinium and YouGov polls are timely in the sense that they confirm, certainly in my view, that despite a few isolated polls during the week that got both Tory and Labour pulses racing for a while, opinion is broadly unchanged and the VI configurations are as they’ve been for most of the year.

    This may appear boring for some but this relative stasis is quite extraordinary in many ways, especially when you consider the political weather. I’m slowly coming to the view, probably a little like the Scottish Independence vote, that a good proportion of the electorate have made up their minds, and did so a surprisingly long time ago.

  18. Toby Helms piece on the ICM poll must have Anthony tearing his hair out !

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/19/david-cameron-cabinet-reshuffle-labour-poll-lead-slip

    The title says “David Cameron’s reshuffle gamble causes Labour’s poll lead to fall”

    then just a few sentences later, the reader is told “The findings are broadly in line with the average from a range polls over the last two months.

    While there is no obvious sign of a “reshuffle bounce” for Cameron, his personal rating has improved markedly compared with two weeks ago”

    I wonder if that loud noise I hear is the sound of our host banging his head on the brick wall.

  19. ” I’m slowly coming to the view, probably a little like the Scottish Independence vote, that a good proportion of the electorate have made up their minds, and did so a surprisingly long time ago.”

    So Jocks away and Cammo back in then Batty?

  20. Most important figure to me would seem to be the Tory one, simply taken on its own.

    A graph over last three years might be interesting but I don’t recall very much variation.

    Certainly not enough to make me think that a great election campaign will boost it dramatically.

    The prpblem is as in footy matches, there are other sides wanting to win, scoring goals and fouling you and so on.

    So it won’t be one-way-traffic and bob’s-yer-uncle – if anything opposition parties begin to get more equal coverage then, which is why UKIP do better at election times rather than in between.

  21. Some people on here (yes – I’m thinking of you, @Chrislane1945) might want to read this – http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/19/uk-economic-recovery-kenneth-clarke

    This is the kind of thing you get when you nudge someone like Clark out of the government.

    It’s a remarkably honest assessment. He does think that Cons will be the largest party, and that the coalition saved the country from economic calamity, but he also says the recovery is very fragile and that “I very much hope the British are going to get out of this ludicrous cycle of ridiculous housing booms followed by housing crashes,”.

    All in all, it’s an honest but somewhat downbeat assessment of both the current economic conditions, the state of the Tory party, and the Tory party’s chance of a majority in 2015. As Clark himself says – “I belong to a Conservative party that used to be able to win elections …”

  22. @R&D

    “So Jocks away and Cammo back in then Batty?”

    The opposite, in fact! I think the game’s up for the Yes campaign in Scotland and, while I’m a little less certain about the result of the next UKGeneral Election, I’m struck by how intransigent these voting intention figures have been for so long. Accordingly, this makes me think that the likelihood of big sea changes in opinion taking place over the next nine months is small, and probably reducing with time.

    Moving on, I thought this might be interesting for aficionados of local council by-elections.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-28363301

    I can’t remember how long ago it was since the Tories last relinquished overall control of Herefordshire County Council, if indeed they ever have, and it would appear that the political movement that gave rise to UKIP might have grown itself another head, this time calling itself the “It’s Our County Party”. Could they become another drain on natural Tory support in the shires, I wonder? It would appear that the political oxygen that sustains them is the same that UKIP breathe; a disillusionment with old style Westminster politics, laced with a nostalgic and sentimental nationalism.

  23. Bramley

    To be fair to Toby Helms (though it’s not a great write up for other reasons) he wouldn’t have been responsible for the headline and I think Guardian/Observer sub-editors are legally obliged to provide as misleading a headline as possible.

    I assume Mr N obtained the YouGov figures by the dastardly plan of buying a copy. It probably illustrates how few people get the print copy that it rarely happens, especially as the first edition tends to be out pretty early.

  24. One thing that is quite striking about the latest crop of polls is the relative unanimity about the Con score. Apart from the Populus 35%, we’ve had a rash of scores in the 30-33 range – really not very good at all,

    We are around 35 weeks from the GE campaign, and the party some of here tip to win outright are still stuck in the low thirties, with an economy that their own former ministers describe as fragile.

  25. Crossbat,
    Very interesting.I know Ledbury very well and would have thought it naturally
    Tory territory,but somehow I think that the games a foot.Share values are
    dropping ,the recovery is fragile.No amount of media spin can compare with
    people’s investments dropping through the floor.This is one to watch.

  26. Crossbat

    The winning IOC[1] candidate in the Ledbury seat was the losing Conservative candidate in 2013 – it’s that rarity a 3 member county seat (unitary really). The Greens also took a seat of the Tories that night.

    Herefordshire used to be a strong Lib Dem area and I wonder if the vacuum they have now left there and in similar places will be filled with similar non_party Parties and so on.

    [1] The official name of the Party appears to be “It’s OUR County!”, which is really too much punctuation.

  27. Written this before so apols for repetition but it is an important point come the campaign.

    Clegg can NOT rule out another coalition with the Tories as he is obliged to take the polling arithmetic into account.

    But because of that he will lose [or fail to regain] the majority of left leaning LD waverers.

    The Tories can regain something from UKIP with a very BIG BUT…………………

    There will be a tipping point: if it looks very likely that the Cons just won’t win then it could rats and sinking ship time, with UKIP the beneficiary.

    My view is that it will be a very tall order for Cons to look as though they are in with a good chance of winning in order to both build the necessary momentum and avoid the opposite.

    I also think Milband will have a lot of sensible yet radical proposals that will be listened to in a campaign.

    If we are where we are now after the conferences then the Cons chances are slimmer again.

  28. @Alec

    “One thing that is quite striking about the latest crop of polls is the relative unanimity about the Con score. Apart from the Populus 35%, we’ve had a rash of scores in the 30-33 range – really not very good at all,”

    Indeed, and there is a growing dislocation between their headline VI figure and other polling responses which you think would be beneficial to them. For example, the Opinium poll shows Cameron’s personal approval ratings improving significantly yet the Tory VI remains virtually static. Ditto responses on the economy, Juncker, welfare measures. All of the underlying and seemingly positive signs for the Tories appear to be pushing at string in terms of boosting their score.

    The low 30s seems to be like a dense jungle for them. However much they thrash about, change direction and spot apparent escape routes and clearings, they just can’t escape its suffocating embrace. And, remember too, there’s lots of dangerous animals that live in the jungle; venomous snakes and spiders, the worst of which is the deadly Constrictor Farageissimus. This snake kills its prey, slowly and painfully.

  29. The only thing that could cause a change in what I wrote above is if something unexpected happened – I dunno what, maybe NI throwing the kitchen sink at Ed and hitting him bang on his nose.

  30. Crossbat, AiW, RM.

    I posted on Friday morning about the loss of Herefordshire to noc
    As I said then, in the good old days the Tories would have done a deal with a few of their reserve army , the Independents, but now I ain’t so sure, although the pelf of a cttee chair still probably cuts a lot of ice. Although it will be a cabinet place nowadays of course. The two parliamentary seats are nailed on Tory, though the two incumbents are as dissimilar as it’s possible to be,with Jesse Norman , the Intellectual and ‘Bungalow ‘ Bill Wiggin the troglodyte. Bet they have a lot to talk about on the train down to Westminster.

  31. YouGov (GB) 27 July 2009

    Con 40 : Lab 25 : LD 20 : Oth 16

    GE (UK) May 2010

    Con 36 : Lab 29 : LD 23 : Oth 12

    Things can and do change. That people can’t foresee what unexpected things might happen, isn’t surprising!

  32. I can’t see anything significantly out of line with current polling trends here.

    DC can’t have a reshuffle every week, nor a budget, nor voting against or vetoing something EU-related. We are all waiting to see what EM has in his pocketses, maybe it will make him less invisible.

  33. OldNat

    Everything seems immutable and set in stone, until it changes.

    Or,
    “Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition ! ”

    (Still a 60% ‘Naw” vote though).

    Nighty night.

  34. Ewen Lightfoot

    “Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition ! ”

    The Catalans might! :-)

    Goodnight.

  35. @ Paul

    I agree with your logic so obviously I think it’s a brilliant piece of analysis.

    I would only add that the blue troops on the ground are very depleted. The average age of Conservative party members is 68y and by all accounts, there is substantial disillusionment with the social liberalism of Cameron/Osborne. Over the last two decades, Westminster discounted the importance of local activists but reality has at last intruded into the bubble for both the Conservative and Labour hierarchies.

    However, there is less of a problem for the LP than for the Conservatives. Most local Labour parties have benefited from a return to activism amongst those disillusioned by the occupation of Iraq, and an influx of new ex-LD members.

    As we know turn-out is going to be critical in determining the outcome… and turn-out is significantly affected by the enthusiasm of local activists.

    Hope the back is less sore.

  36. CROSSBAT11
    “This snake kills its prey, slowly and painfully.” I suspect actually it swallows them alive without them noticing, unheeding of the need not to go softly into that good night. Goodbye, goodbye, old blue rinsed loves and waistcoated gents of yesteryear

    We hear a lot about reform of the EU but not much substance. In my experience of working with the EC and campaigning there were three major errors and shortcomings in the ’90s which need radical restructuring:
    the costly attempt to absorb southern and Mediterranean countries and regions with no understanding of their different, largely peasant economies and differing livelihoods systems;
    CAP as a grossly adverse system for subsidising inefficient agriculture at the cost of highly efficient modern systems, as in the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands;
    Grossly inexperienced and incompetent staffing of the EC, joining up with a vast international featherbedding of bureaucrats which now weighs down and befuddles international trade and emasculates peacekeeping and aid, at vast cost.

  37. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 18th July -Lab 37%, Con 32%, UKIP 13%, LD 9%, Greens 5%, Nats 3%, Others 1%; APP -26

    Typical You- gov poll, with cross breaks as usual

    Greens on 5% again, mostly from ex 2010 LD

    Economic questions stablised after last weeks drop, but the answer to the question

    How do you think the financial situation of your
    household will change over the next 12 months is -20% (Better 16%, Worse 36%)

    This is the lowest since March the 6th

    Lab -39% and UKIP -48% are still very pessimistic, but the LD are on -2% a sharp drop from last week.

  38. VI will, IMV, be affected by public and industry’s perceptions of parties’ strategies for economic development. This may change the whose best at the economy debate.
    Commentary on Ed’s speech at Milton Keynes “no more tax and spend” and his earlier 1 July statement of 30B’s worth of devolved spending has rather missed the importance of Adonis’ proposals (drawn from Heseltine and other nonm-traditional socialist sources) for unified city/regional authorities such as has been operating for the past ten years in Manchester, with powers and resources for planned long-term investment in infrastructure and in enterprise and skills development to match, but the CBI seem to have picked it up:
    “The CBI said the Adonis report “identifies the right priorities for growth and job creation, and recognises that the benefits of the recovery must be shared across all regions of the UK”.

    “His report addresses many of the major challenges facing our economy, from skills shortages to strains on infrastructure,” said its deputy director general Katja Hall.

    “Size matters for local government, and more combined authorities would help create regional economic powerhouses to invest in research and development, support exporters and expand apprenticeships.”

  39. @COLIN

    “Mark Ferguson on Labour List describes it as “the idea that the state can still be interventionist without writing big cheques,”

    ie-State intervention by “pre-distributive” legislation rather than by re-distribution.

    or-The Private Sector ordered to meet Government objectives on pay & price.”

    ———-

    Well there are other ways of doing it which peeps have mentioned on here.

    E.g., ensuring more competition, providing incentives to pay better wages, creating more/better jobs in important growth-producing areas, intervening in aspects which though plenty of potential the private sector wouldn’t bother with on its own (and which may also require regulatory changes, e.g. a spaceport), lowering costs for business (provided you ensure sufficient competition so they don’t just pocket all the savings) etc. etc.

  40. Crossbat, Bramley,

    You’re both wrong, I found it on Twitter. They don’t teach us hacking until third year.

  41. Question on Clegg’s Bedroom Tax pirouetting in YouGov. 44% say it reflects badly (hypocritical) while 38% say it reflects well (evidence based. 8% neither, 10% DK. Need crossbreaks to see effects on different parties.

  42. Thanks Sue.

    Back pain – or pain of any kind – isn’t too bad in the grand scheme of things and I really am very aware of how lucky most of us are here compared to the poverty and suffering elsewhere in the world…. even within the UK come to that.

  43. I agree with Anthony’s conclusions on the ComRes sample: that those questions are unlikely to make much difference, but that regardless “tomorrow” is the more appropriate question.

    If the intention were to ask questions conducive to making electoral predictions, I would do it by asking the same 1,000 voters the following two questions:

    1. Without taking into consideration the likelihood of that party winning a parliamentary seat seat, who would you prefer vote for if a general election were held tomorrow?

    2. And bearing in mind the constituency in which you live, who would you vote for if a general election were held tomorrow?.

    Ignoring the effect of the campaign proper, the answers would give us a much better idea of how far UKIP are likely to drift (most people think their current poll figures are still too high, but equally that they’ll do better than 2010: that’s still quite a large bracket), and to a lesser extent how much the Lib Dems are likely to recover. I say “lesser” because the Lib Dem vote will drop 70+% in some areas and quite modestly in others, so in my opinion a sample of 1,000 is not big enough to be confident that the results average out local factors.

  44. ROSIEANDDAISIE
    Not sure you’re right, Paul. For the past six weeks I’ve had unbelievably painful and debilitating cellulitis in the lower left leg and ankle, now largely gone but liable to reappear, and have not given much of a t-ss for the suffering of others. Pain is pain. It’s the same the whole world over.
    Hope your holding up, and wondered whether you should not be orchestrating Fool on the Hill, for which there are some marvellous Japanese guitar versions.

  45. Bramley – journalists don’t write their own headlines, sub-editors do. Hence you can get articles that sensibly say there is no significant change accompanied by cretinously stupid headlines.

  46. Morning All.
    OLD NAT pointed out in his post on this thread that Gordon Brown achieved a 4% swing back from July 2009 to May 2010.

    It is twenty years since Tony Blair became Labour leader, and transformed Labour’s ‘VI’ a from good to very good lead.

  47. @ OldNat

    I’d just been carrying out the same exercise when I spotted your post. You’re right, there’s a lot of water to pass under the bridge yet.

    Fascinating looking back at the comments as well, just shows how much partisanship blurs 20/20 vision when it comes to predicting political outcomes.

    Based the small bunch of threads I scanned we have almost a completely different team of contributors now. Unless you all fancied a change of name that is.

  48. I can’t see how the Tories could win an overall majority in 2015 unless they do something really radical. The resurgence of cold war rhetoric in the wake of the Malaysian airline atrocity by Cameron and newly appointed Foreign Secretary Fallon might persuade some UKIP supporters to return to the Tory fold, but I think that there is little evidence that people want a confrontation with Russia and escalating sanctions. If that did happen, then resolution of the war in Syria becomes impossible, so I think they have miscalculated. Obama’s words are more measured but stop short of blaming Putin personally. I still think that Labour will be given one last chance to get it right in 2015.

  49. Chris – I forget what %age of the vote did Labour get in 2005?

    Ben Foley – – dead right ICM are doing just that imo predicting what opinion would be on Election day based on current opinion.

    Nothing wrong with that but it does mean we can’t compare with other poll results; as ever the trend is important.

    IIRC during the actual GE DKs/WV reduce so their methodology differences become less significant.

  50. @ Jim Jam

    The trending trend might not be the same in May next year. GB pulled 4% back from July 2009 to May 2010, what happens if DC does the same from now to May? A slightly diiferent outcome.

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