The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1), GRN 4%. Changes are from ComRes’s last poll a month ago, and don’t show any significant movement.

I sometimes see people asking if asking “if there was an election tomorrow” produces different results from “the next election in May 2015”. ComRes did a split sample this month asking and asked the two halves with the two different wordings: there was no significant difference. Asking about next May produced a Tory score one point higher, UKIP two points lower… but these differences could easily be normal sample error (especially given they were only to half sized samples).

If you really wanted to test if the different wordings had any effect you’d need to test on a much bigger scale to differentiate any effect from normal sample error, especially since any difference is likely to be small. Personally I doubt it does make any difference, but would always ask “tomorrow” on principle, just to emphasize that a poll really is a snapshot of opinion NOW, not a prediction of opinion next year.

Opinium’s fortnightly poll in the Observer is also out tonight, and they have toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1).

53 Responses to “Latest ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. As Ashcroft is wont to say, national polls are mood music, the election happens in the marginals.

    He has another 14000 poll of marginal voters in Tory Lab marginals coming out this week.

    The closer we move to May 2015, the more accurate the polls become, and we are not seeing the swingback to incumbant that we should be seeing at this stage of the electoral cycle. That is why Fisher has had a cross over, with Labour with most seats (although still behind in VI-but that is how it works). And Manchester’s polling observatory has worked out that it is normally a 2.5% swing to incumbant – so Con would need to be about 5% ahead pretty soon to have any chance of being largest party.

    Personally, I think that the Miliband factor is already factored in. I don’t think many Labour voters will still switch to Tory (Labour are pretty close to a historical low, and are propped up by 2010 LibDem switchers, so they are at core of their traditional support and their switchers won’t vote Tory). The most likely thing will be that unhappy Labour supporters will stay home, as they did in 2010.

    The biggest risk for Labour is that they move right, thus losing the LibDem 2010 switchers who will either vote Green or stay home.

  2. please excuse typo incumbent (should read before pushing post!!)

  3. New thread

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