A week ago co-incidence spat out three polls with seven point Labour leads within 2 days. This weeks little clump of Monday polls has produced rather more typical polls from Ashcroft and Populus, and a more unusual one from ICM.

Lord Ashcroft‘s weekly telephone poll has topline figures of CON 32%(+5), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 14%(-1). The Conservatives are up five, but it looks like something of a reversion to the mean after last week’s unusual poll that had that the Tories down 6. Full tabs are here.

Secondly is the twice-weekly Populus poll, which has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. Tabs for that are here.

Finally there is the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian here, which has topline figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 12%(+2), UKIP 9%(-7!). The narrow Conservative lead looks unusual, but is actually pretty typical of ICM’s recent polls – their last three monthly polls have now shown the Conservatives and Labour effectively neck and neck (a two point Tory lead, a point point Lab lead, now a one point Tory lead). More startling is that sharp drop in UKIP support, down 7 points and into single figures.

The drop in this particular poll is unusually large but it does fit into a broader trend. The expected pattern of UKIP polling around the European elections was for their support to peak after the inevitable burst of publicity following the European elections and then decline again. That’s pretty much happened. Lord Ashcroft’s polls had them peak at 19% just after the Euros, and they’ve now drifted down to 15%. YouGov had them peaking at 17%, now they’ve fallen back to 12%. ICM had them up to 16% after the Euros, now down to 9%. Populus they didn’t really have much of a post-Euro boost for UKIP anyway, only going to up 15%, but in their last couple have had them at 12%. ComRes, Survation and MORI haven’t shown UKIP coming down from their post Euro high yet, but none have polled in July yet… time will tell if they follow the trend.


370 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, Populus and ICM polls”

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  1. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Beginning your inevitable middle-aged lurch toward conservatism, I see. ;)

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  2. @AMBER STAR

    “Steady on… we’re not getting a spaceport. All that’s happened is eight ‘less unsuitable than all the others’ sites have been identified.”

    ——–

    Yes, we know that Amber, indeed I posted those details myself. I didn’t expect it to happinate you…

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  3. @Spearmint,

    I’ve worried about that before. If I’m moved from near-communist to social democrat in the space of three years, I’ll be a member of UKIP by the time I’m thirty…

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  4. Bramley
    Hope you get good news soon.
    ToH
    I think that both Lab and Tory will gain VI over the Summer as the UKIP and Greens lose salience, it’s just that I believe the gap between Lab and Tory will remain constant at about 4%. I also think that the Tories may suffer from linkage with events from the 1980s as Norman Tebbit has suggested there was a cover up during the Thatcher govt.

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  5. @TOH

    I’ll second your right to spell and punctuate as you please, though I doubt you’d approve of my reasoning.

    I reserve my right to take the P if you make a really funny mistake. I hope you’ll take the same liberty with mine.

    On everything else we can just carry on disagreeing.

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  6. newhouset

    ToH

    “I expect the Labour vote to drop and the Tory vote to increase by at least five points just before the election, maybe even on election day, to give the Tories a small majority.”
    …..
    You are very confident and specific in your prediction. Could you share with us the evidence on which your expectations are based?
    __________

    I think it’s called expressing an opinion (which isn’t always based on fact) but if it helps I agree with TOH and I’ll base my opinion on EM’s own extraordinary dismal poll ratings which is fact…according to the polls.

    Yip I can see a sneaky wee Tory majority slipping in.

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  7. Carfrew
    I hope we get a spaceport , as I posted about a month ago, people claiming to have time-travelled report the existence of a spaceport near Runcorn. This was in a copy of ‘Fortean Times’ I read on holiday about 10 years ago. I remember thinking that Runcorn was a pretty prosaic sort of place for a spaceport !

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  8. Ipsos-Mori:

    CON 32 (+1)
    LAB 35 (+1)
    LD 8
    UKIP 12 (-2)

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  9. TOH

    “We shall all see in 2015. If I am wrong I will post as such after the election. Will you be doing the same if you are wrong?”

    What a very strange question/”challenge” Howard.

    I really don’t need you to post a mea culpa if you’re wrong and if I am it would not concern me in the least to admit it – especially since it would be demonstrably the case that I had been.

    But then, why should it worry me? I was just hypothesing on what MAY happen and saying it wouldn’t surprise me etc.

    Its not the big deal you seem to think it is. The only difference in how our opinions are formed is that, for you to be right things need to change and I know many people feel its inevitable that they will.

    For me to be right they need to stay broadly the same.

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  10. Thanks Ewen & Ron.

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  11. That Ipsos Mori, taken with all the others shows that the ICM from the other day is simply not being supported by any other company.

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  12. I also wonder if the EU muddle – a referendum following a re-negotiation with an unclear agenda – will, in practice – actually damage rather than help the Cons.

    UKIP voters won’t buy it, especially as Cameron will be forced to re-state that his intention is to stay in after a “successful” renegotiation and business will predominantly be very frightened at the thought.

    In general, as I believe with Scotland, the easier decision is always to stay with what you’ve got.

    Just had a Don Cortisone injection in my knee so I shall cross me legs that it works.

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  13. Bramley – it’s a methodology difference.

    Most of the polls are showing things pretty static at the moment – that means most are showing things pretty static around a 3 or 4 point lead, ICM are showing it pretty static with the parties neck-and-neck.

    Trend is the same, but things like ICM’s reallocation of don’t knows, and perhaps their downweighting of 2010 non-voters, mean they are showing things tighter.

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  14. State education is an unusual ideological battleground in that the vast majority of people exercised about it, either have had no experience of it, or experienced it a long time ago and have no current knowlege or experience of what it being provided.

    My children are currently working their way through primary education and I know that the standard of education my children receive is much higher than the education I received at their age in the late 1970′s/ early 1980′s. Their experience of education is more clearly structured and the goals are defined in a way lacking at that time.

    It appears that education is a victim of the bias of old age towards defining ones own youth as the golden age. Things weren’t better then, you were just younger and still able to enjoy yourself. Things change, education is better now, children are generally getting a good education, the main things holding them back are their socio-economic backgrounds, education can only do so much, society and the economy have to change before each child can realise their real potential.

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  15. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Nicely put on my behalf, thank you.

    POSTAGEINCLUDED

    “I reserve my right to take the P if you make a really funny mistake. I hope you’ll take the same liberty with mine.”

    Fine by me but I would not reciprocate, matter of manners for me. Some dyslectics do get very upset by it so I suggest you temper your comments. I was actually responding to Norbold’s post.

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  16. Ewen Lightfoot

    I also think that the Tories may suffer from linkage with events from the 1980s as Norman Tebbit has suggested there was a cover up during the Thatcher govt.

    It would be funny if we find out that Thatcher was in on the cover up.

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  17. @Robbiealive

    Lol, I know what a hobby horse is and took your comment the way you intended, as teasing; I might have teased you back but you responded a bit strangely even when I paid you a compliment recently so instead I took the opportunity to say a little more about Thorium, since you brought it up.

    And no, I’m not arguing that’s what’s good for the rich is good for all of us. I was making the same argument that you went on to make: that some ways they spend their money may better than others. Rather they spent it on space tourism, helping develop the industry, than hoovering up assets and otherwise stacking the deck.

    As I thought I made clear at the time, when I mentioned it was better than buying big advantage over others. And you go on to say it’s better than the Everest thing, so it’s like you got my point but didn’t realise it…

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  18. @Ewen

    Assuming it’s an alien spaceport, then they may want to hide it somewhere more off-the-radar, like Runcorn. I’m betting there’s one in t’other Howard’s allotment, or my storage unit, which I haven’t visited in a little while…

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  19. “It would be funny if we find out that Thatcher was in on the cover up.”

    It would be depressingly sad actually and I very much doubt it was the case.

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  20. @TOH
    Don’t you worry. I always temper my remarks – though not always to the same temprament that others prefer to play in. In short, all mistakes interest me for the odd thoughts they can provoke (which are sometimes revealing or insightful and often humourous with it). I don’t see grammatical or orthographic solecisms as opportunities to demonstrate my superior knowledge of Fowler – to my mind an ignoble pursuit, the intellectual equivalent of “flashing your cash”.

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