We had a glut of seven point leads at the start of the week – from Ashcroft and Populus on Monday and YouGov on Tuesday. At the end of the week things look like they are back to normal again – we won’t get Ashcroft till Monday, but Populus’s second poll of the week has more typical figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12% (tabs here) and YouGov had a Labour lead of four on Wednesday and three this morning – CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12% (tabs here).

There was also a new Survation Scottish poll for the Daily Record. Like the recent TNS poll, the main movement was actually from don’t knows towards the two campaigns, with the lead once don’t knows were removed remaining the same. Topline figures are YES 41%(+2), NO 46%(+2), without don’t knows that works out at Yes 47%(nc), No 53%(nc) (Tabs here.)


322 Responses to “New YouGov, Populus and Survation polls”

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  1. It’s rare that exchanges on here sink to the level that I look forward to the impact of a Scottish poll, but perhaps tonight is such – there’s a new ICM poll in the Scotland on Sunday tomorrow. No figures yet, headline is “Yes vote stalls…” so implies no change…

    (And for the avoidance of doubt, that means cease the previous exchange on here. It was clearly not conducive to a non-partisan exchange of views)

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  2. @Shevii

    “Silence usually signifies agreement in my case!”

    Don’t think much of Villa’s chances next season :-)

    You may well say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.

    :-)

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  3. Figures from ICM Scotland on Sunday Poll

    Yes 34 (-2)
    No 45 (+2)

    Excluding don’t knows

    Yes 43
    No 57

    “1,002 Scots interviewed between 7 and 11 July”

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  4. “It’s rare that exchanges on here sink to the level…”

    ———-

    Well if it only occurs rarely, then that’s a good start…

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  5. “…that I look forward to the impact of a Scottish poll…”

    ————-

    … and when it does occasionally happen, there’s the bonus of enjoying the Scottish polling impact. Which is quite an achievement.

    (Indeed, if it happened more often, then much happiness might ensue, given there are quite a lot of Scottish Polls…)

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  6. Its getting less rare Anthony.

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  7. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 11th July -, Lab 38%, Con 33%, UKIP 12%, LD 9% Greens 4% Nats 3%,; APP -21

    The economic figures have slipped away from the coalition this week, especially the question

    How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months?-19% down 6% (better 17% worse 36%)

    Cons + 16% LD’s + 9% both distinctly positive UKIP -44% Lab -41% utterly pessimistic

    The Coalition total score has stayed the same as last Sunday at 42%, but there are less super positive Cons in this poll, and more very negative Lab

    -19% is back in the 6 month range

    The headline figures and cross breaks are the usual – Lab lead looks about accurate to me

    8 and half months to go before the official election campaign starts, clock ticking down relentlessly.

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  8. Morning All.
    Another beautiful day here.
    Nice poll for Labour; surprisingly, I think.
    Lib Dems poll range remains narrow, and high for them.

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  9. Interesting poll this morning with Labour’s VI probably at the top end of the MOE range, I think. Other parties more as less where they’ve been for over 12 months. I haven’t looked to check, but I would think you could take a random dip into the polling archives and find a YouGov poll of 12 months ago with almost an identical configuration to today’s. We move serenely and steadily on with little disturbance to the underlying position of all the main parties.

    The Scottish Independence Referendum poll indicates zero momentum for the Yes Campaign. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, I suppose, but I just can’t see how they can win from this position, I really can’t.

    Still, it’s World Cup Final day and all other things are relegated to the realms of relative unimportance! Might catch a bit of cricket at Worcester until tea and then back for a barbie, a few ciders, some conviviality with friends and family, and then the match. I’ve enjoyed this tournament enormously and it will leave something of a void in my life for a little while. There’s been some excellent football, drama, surprises and the emergence of teams and individual players. I’ve never been one to exaggerate football’s capacity to transform the world, but it’s a wonderfully beguiling distraction that is enjoyed by millions in every corner of this planet. I gather over a billion people are expected to watch tonight’s final and, for once, we have a truly global event that has the capability of spreading joy and wonder. I shall be watching tonight, knowing that people of all races and religions will be clustered around their TV sets doing the same, from Manhattan to Malawi and from Johannesburg to Jerusalem. Life affirming stuff, indeed.

    The tournament deserves a great Final but, such is the scale and importance of the game, it’s possible that caution could prevent it being so. I admire this German team immensely, and feel they will prevail, but there is a little part of me that hopes that on this footballing stage to end all stages, little Lionel Messi, the scampering sprite who thrives in the chaos that is football at its best, brings his genius to bear and lights the blue touch paper.

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  10. Decent poll for Lab. The household finance stuff in YG is interesting, and matches Markit’s household finance index. If this is picking up a real movement in household sentiment, it isn’t good news for Cons, but I think it’s a bit early to make definitive judgements.

    What is interesting is that the reported deterioration in household finances has occurred against the backdrop of overwhelmingly positive media coverage on the economy, yet this hasn’t swayed respondents.

    “Nice poll for Labour; surprisingly, I think.”

    Again – not so surprising. I’ve been posting about household finances for about ten weeks now, suggesting that Lab might benefit.

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  11. Crossbat – you should have checked, you might have surprised yourself! The average lead in this week’s YouGov polls was 4.4 points. The average lead in this week’s YouGov polls a year ago was 7.6 points.

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  12. The danger for the Cons is that when people are being told everything is getting better when from their own perspective it isn’t happening (except for the London obesessed media) it could make them very annoyed indeed…

    This will be a much bigger factor come the GE than any amount of Ed bashing that is being plotted.

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  13. I quite agree BALBS. And the more the newspapers concentrate on bashing Ed rather than taking the Coalition to task for the drop in living standards the more irrelevant the newspapers will become.

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  14. Alec,

    You know I have this flawed threory but imo with some validity that VI changes reflect economic realities on the ground.
    So opinion polls as lead economic indicators

    My guess is that when later Q2 and some Q3 numbers are known they will show a less rosy picture from the Coalitions perspective.

    Headline GDP may still be good but the uneven nature of the distribution.

    Back to where we anticipated

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  15. Went before finished oops

    Alec,

    You know I have this flawed theory but imo with some validity that VI changes reflect economic realities on the ground.
    So opinion polls as lead economic indicators

    My guess is that when later Q2 and some Q3 numbers are known they will show a less rosy picture from the Coalitions perspective.

    Headline GDP may still be good but the uneven nature of the distribution will be telling as will the gdp/head numbers.

    Back to where we anticipated late last year before the ‘recovery’ seemed to be accelerating this year.
    4th quarter will probably see earnings growth outstrip inflation at last.
    2 questions though:
    Will typical earning rise above inflation* averages can be lifted by top end rises like during bonus season?
    Secondly, will the Coalition parties get much credit for any real improvement in typical households disposable income, should it occur.

    * inflation as experienced by typical swing voters

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  16. @Anthony

    “Crossbat – you should have checked, you might have surprised yourself! The average lead in this week’s YouGov polls was 4.4 points. The average lead in this week’s YouGov polls a year ago was 7.6 points.”

    You’ve got me bang to rights! However, being the old contrarian that I am, I could respond by pointing out that if you roll the comparison point on a little to week commencing the 5th August 2013, the average Labour lead was 5.7%, not a million miles from what it has been this week.

    And, take a look at a You Gov poll conducted on the 31st July 2013: Lab 38 Con 33 LD 10 UKIP 14. Just about identical to today’s YouGov, some 12 months later.

    Where of course you’re right is that the Labour VI has declined by about 2% since this time last year, but it’s striking how unchanged the other parties are.

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  17. @Jimjam

    ‘ VI changes reflect economic realities on the ground. So opinion polls as lead economic indicators’

    i think we have discussed this many times before and i know we agree with each other on your above point. We are having the same discussion because the situation is not changing.

    I believe that the coalition will struggle to get back those 1/3 of voters who have deserted to other parties until this personal finance question picks up.

    Doesn’t mean Lab have got or will get the votes – UKIP and other parties are picking up a lot of them as well

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  18. The bashing Ed does work…. To a certain extent. But response on the doorstep (in a Tory semi-marginal) is – ‘I am still voting for you’ .
    @AW – the polls are tighter than a year ago, but not nearly as tight as Fisher predicted they would be. His model shows a Labour cross over.
    Still, 10 months is a long time in politics…

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  19. JimJam

    “Went before finished oops”

    Have you spoken to your doctor? You can probably get something for it. They’re very good these days.

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  20. New thread

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  21. Newhouset – my partners agrees with you.

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  22. “It’s getting less rare…”

    ———

    Well I wasn’t involved in yesterday’s round of the NI/Ed’s carp thing, but it’s been more regular in the past. I wasn’t around at the last election, but one imagines things might get a touch more frenetic as election day approaches. Especially since it may be a tight election.

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