Sunday polls

A quick round up of Sunday polls today. The regular YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here, with toplines of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. A two point Labour lead, in line with the daily YouGov polls this week so far.

There was also an Opinium poll in the Observer. They showed toplines of CON 29%(-2), LAB 35(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 18%(+1). Changes there are since a fortnight ago, so pre-Juncker. No sign of Opinium showing similar movements to those in YouGov’s polls this week.

Finally there is a new-ish TNS BMRB Scottish poll. As usual there is quite a gap between TNS’s fieldwork and publication, so this poll was actually conducted in mid-June and is older than the recent YouGov Scottish poll. Topline figures are YES 32%(+2), NO 46%(+4), changes are from the last TNS poll in May. On the face of it it’s a widening of the NO campaign’s lead, but both sides have gained at the expense of don’t know and excluding don’t knows the YES figure is 41%, very much in line with TNS’s previous polls this year.


113 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. It’s looking very dismal for yesnp with about two months to go.

  2. …Greens 5%.

  3. That’s going to be the “You Forgot Poland” of this site isn’t it?

  4. @Wes

    I’m surprised how resilient their polling has been. How long did the Greens retain their strength post 09 Euros?

  5. Of course the really interesting thing about the Sunday Times YouGov poll is how little there is of it – a mere six pages compared to the usual 10-12. Either there another 20 “How carp is Ed?” questions hidden away for use later in the week or everyone is in need of a holiday to think up some new ideas (oddly enough “Do you think the phone-hackers were jailed for long enough?” wasn’t asked).

    Given that one of the few non-regulars to appear is asking what things people “find the most irritating or annoying on holiday”, maybe Anthony is trying to tell us something.

  6. Craig – me too, and I’m not sure.

  7. @Anthony W

    “On the face of it it’s a widening of the NO campaign’s lead, but both sides have gained at the expense of don’t know and excluding don’t knows the YES figure is 41%, very much in line with TNS’s previous polls this year.”

    And that’s very much the point; there has been no significant movement or change in these polls for months. Nothing’s impossible, I accept, but I think we’ve reached a stage here where it would take a political earthquake now for “Yes” to prevail in the Referendum in September. The rather forlorn attempt by those with a variety of agendas to talk this up as some knife-edge contest is becoming more ridiculous as each poll and each week goes by.

    I very much agree with Peter Kellner’s view on this, despite Survation’s protestations.

  8. Crossbat

    Would that be the same Peter K who OldNat compared to Sir Cyril Burt, in terms of disinterested reliability ?
    Rather proves your main point IIMSS, the yes camp will be getting increasingly
    unpleasant as the vote gets nearer.

  9. The Greens.
    Are they not picking up from the wet lettuce libdem faction?

  10. @Hookeslaw

    Environmental sustainability is really butch you know.

  11. Interesting news from Thanet South:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-28183544

    Ex UKIP Leader to stand for the Tories.

    Does Nige fancy it now?

  12. Quite a sticky situation for the Aye campaign, because even if they were to win 10% or so, independence on the basis of a 51% vote would not be a great starting point for a nation.

    On the other hand, the Naw campaign will presumably want something decisive, to avoid any grounds for the SNP asking again if an opportune moment presents itself in the next 20 years.

  13. “the yes camp will be getting increasingly
    unpleasant as the vote gets nearer.”

    Not a nice thought.

    I’ve said 60/40 since before they decided on a referendum.

  14. From July 4th thread:
    “YouGov definitely seem to be picking up less UKIP support post-Juncker (last week they had UKIP in the range 13%-15%, this week 11%-12%),”
    This one July 6th: “UKIP 13%.”
    MoE?

  15. I’m going to throw out a hypothesis (though not really a prediction) that the vote will be closer to 65-35 than 60-40, contrary to reasonable expectations. There may be a feeling that a strong consensus is needed, and unionists may be unwilling to believe the polls based on the scale of the SNP win in 2011.

  16. The large majority in favour of assisted suicide on one of the YG follow up questions is interesting. There is a private members bill on this in the Lords and I reckon that, though the parliamentary majority may not be there for it yet, it will become a major subject of debate before the GE. Of course all the main parties will probably allow MPs and peers a free vote.

  17. @Bill P

    Life isn’t always so kind. It wouldn’t surprise if they carried on campaigning for independence, even after actually securing independence…

  18. HookesLaw

    No doubt looking at the crosstabs that a very high proportion of the Greens increase is coming from former LDs. Whether they come from a particular faction within the LDs is less clear. From experience in the local Greens, it feels like quite a cross-section of former LDs have turned to the Greens – from pretty much all parts of the LDP, apart from the Orange Bookers, who presumably (& hopefully) go somewhere else when they give up on the hopeless cause.

  19. @ Billy Bob (from the previous thread)

    “Thanks for your post on Ann Richards… I think I’ve only seen Holland Taylor playing Jim Carrey’s mum in The Truman Show, but I’ll keep an eye out for her.”

    Unfortunately, the show ran its last performance on Broadway a year ago. :(

    “Changing tack slightly, I didn’t realise that only California, Washinton State and Louisiana operate the open/blanket/jungle primary system. Looking at Louisiana, Mitch Landrieu appears to be emerging as the Democrat candidate for 2015. Governors seem to be alternating between Repubicans and Democrats in recent years (sometimes in the same person), so I guess he has a good chance?”

    It’s interesting that you bring this up. I voted against this change and I really don’t know that it’s doing what it is supposed to be doing. We only recently adopted this system for the 2012 elections. The good news about it is that in California (and I believe Washington but not Louisiana), both of the top two finishers advance to the runoff regardless of how one does. That actually changed electoral outcomes as there was a major difference between the primary electorate and the general electorate.

    Now, here’s something interesting. Licensed joyologist Marianne Williamson received 13.4% of the vote in CA-33. Ted Lieu received a whole 18.8% of the vote. Now, really good field program I think can deliver a maximum 5%-6% boost. She did not run a field program at all, let alone a proper one (towards the end, she did not have a campaign manager). Basically, on election day, she had her legions of dedicated supporters, decked out in campaign gear, run around and wave her signs at street corners. Mind you, she came in 4th overall behind Wendy but I think the way things were calculated, she was in 3rd place (maybe 2nd) on election day.

    Now, imagine if she had run a field program. And imagine if she had gotten into second place, and thus the runoff. The Democrats would have lost CA-33, a district which gave 61% of the vote to Barack Obama (and I think 68% to Diane Feinstein). And not just any district but the district that is arguably the Democratic Party’s ATM machine. There would have been an outcry and an outrage that could have brought down the entire system (even though whoever won that hypothetical runoff would have been certain to be a one termer).

    Now, as for Landrieu. I don’t know that he has a good shot. He might have a chance. The state has shifted so far right, that it may be difficult for any Dem to win.

    “Btw… the battered pickup in the Jim Murphy story made me think how [email protected] a sight that would be in the American South – if you substituted a Dixie saltire.”

    Yeah, I kinda thought that too. I don’t know why but I would think Scotland would be different.

  20. I live in Dundee which according to the Courier poll is Yes 52 No 36 DK 12. This was self-selecting folk free during the day and not busy. This is probably why I think Yes will get at least 45%.

    In any case the recent YouGov poll showed Labour winning Holyrood, I don’t find that credible because Labour are being damaged by the referendum campaign. So I believed Survation. Labour’s association with the Orange Order, UKIP and Conservatives in the No campaign is damaging. Just last week a Labour PPC had to resign on account if comparing children of Yes supporters to Hitler’s Youth. So publicity is bad.

    The danger is that Labour will have completely alienated 40+% of the population post-referendum and with the May GE fast approaching the SNP could sweep up Labour seats in Scotland. The Labour loses could prevent a Labour OM or even Labour as largest party.

    Labour could win the battle but lose the war, but do not seem to recognise this issue.

  21. Apparently C4 Dispatches are running a programme tomorrow night highlighting businesses that have been warned of consequences if they get involved on the no side.

    It’s really quite hard to make judgements on this, but there has been a consistent undercurrent of comment, mostly anonymous, but through reputable journalists, about the Scottish Administration trying to warn businesses away from speaking out.

    The J K Rowling intervention was also significant, as much has been made of the arts and cultural sector heavily backing Yes. However, some artists privately have been reported as saying they can’t back No in public, as they depend on Holyrood funding and contracts. Again, hard to judge, as these remains largely ‘unnamed artist is reported as….’

    Holyrood is run by a single party, in a system that assume multi party rule by design, and there are concerns among many over the abuse of position. In terms of the government, the No campaign are the opposition, meaning Yes has a lot of potential influence.

    The interesting point comes as the vote draws closer, and people feel a bit more confident picking sides. If the SNP look like losing the referendum, I wonder whether we might see more public figures breaking ranks. This may be the dynamic that sees the gap widening as the day draws near, although I’m not at this stage making a prediction.

  22. @Alec

    Seriously you think the Scottish government have more power to pressure folk than the UK government? The Scottish government can’t hand out honours and seats in the Lords. And only yesterday it was revealed that diplomats were pressuring foreign governments to intervene with support for the union. I hope dispatches will investigate these issues as well.

    It makes sense for businesses not to take sides as they don’t want to alienate at least 40% of their customers.

  23. @Coupar2802 – “Seriously you think the Scottish government have more power to pressure folk than the UK government? ”

    That rather depends on who is responsible for government budgets and contracts. In a devolved administration, much of the spending is managed from Holyrood, so yes, the Scottish administration does have a high degree of inherent leverage, should they choose to use it. Post independence of course, they would have total control.

  24. From what I’ve heard the Yessers are sending some big blokes who run ice-cream vans to offer some “friendly” advice to businesses and also to offer them free lollies when they see sense.

    I spekt that will be missed out of tomorrow’s report.

  25. @Dave

    UKIP’s support was always likely to fall away post the Euros. I wouldn’t think the Juncker farce has played any part in it.

  26. I have a prediction/theory btw. The referendum goes down to defeat. It might dent the SNP’s numbers a bit but, unless there’s a strong Labour wave, SNP wins reelection to Holyrood with a plurality in 2015 (or is it 2016?).

  27. SoCalLiberal

    Your prediction of a No win rather matches my own – since both are based on polling evidence, that’s hardly surprising!

    The party voting patterns thereafter are, I think, wholly unpredictable. For Holyrood, the likely result will be based on voters judgement as to which party will best deliver competent governance for Scotland. Currently only YG suggests that would be Labour.

    Once again, we need to return to Kellner’s assertion that YG is right, and all others are wrong. In Anthony’s time-honoured guidance – we’ll have to wait and see.

    Whether Scots differently for Westminster will depend on whether they choose to view their options through a UK or Scottish prism. There is no current evidence on that.

    Sadly, Ewen Lightfoot misrepresents my reference to Cyril Burt. Probably a combination of speed reading and antipathy confused him.

    Still, none of us on our side are surprised by such misrepresentations, while the remarkably offensive Godwinian comments from No supporters (Chris Green, I’m looking at you!) pass without comment.

    Mote and beam spring to mind when considering such crassness.

  28. The post no scenario does have one major and as yet largely undiscussed complication, and that is who leads the SNP.

    Should No lose, and particularly should it lose heavily, then the question of how long AS remains leader will come up. He may well decide he has served his party long enough. He would no longer be a winner.

    Previously, my opinion (and the evidence) suggested strongly that an SNP without AS would be a greatly diminished political force. Now it’s less certain, both because the SNP has greatly broadened it’s visible alternatives, and also that Labour are now less natural rulers in Scotland. I would still anticipate a small loss of SNP support should AS step down, but how substantial that might be I know not.

    It’s also true that there may be internal recriminations should there be a heavy referendum defeat. There is very muted and limited criticism from within the Yes and SNP camps regarding AS’s leadership of the campaign, with a few claiming a more honest approach would have gain greater trust.

    Salmond has kept a very rigid level of discipline within his party and administration so far, but post defeat, this will be harder to maintain, and disagreements may well surface.

    I think that it would be wrong to assume the political dynamic in Scotland post No would be like now, and as SNP are the leading group, they will have potentially the most to lose.

  29. The child abuse scandal now lapping at the shores of Westminster has the feeling of a slowly gathering storm about it. Those campaigning to get justice for the victims and their families, and bring the perpetrators to book, may feel it has developed far too slowly, bearing in mind we’re talking about events of 30 or more years ago. However Lord Tebbit’s stunning intervention yesterday, plus growing parliamentary pressure, makes a full blown Inquiry inevitable, I would have thought. I tend to share Stephen Glover of the Mail’s view that this has the potential to “shatter people’s faith in our political institutions, and very possibly make the MPs’ expenses scandal look like a trivial rumpus.”

  30. @Crossbat11

    There are strong hints that sections of the Press were active colluders in any coverup that might have taken place. Many of the allegations and names have been known to them for three decades. They will be extremely keen to deflect attention. I suggest they not be allowed to.

  31. New Populus this morning – Lab lead up 6 to 7%!

    @Chris Riley. Quite agree. I think we can work out which papers colluded by a simple check on who is running the most/least on this huge story. I worry that now the BBC only seems to report what is reported by the right wing press, it is ever more difficult to get proper exposure for stories like this.

  32. Populus [email protected] · 28 mins
    New Populus VI: Lab 38 (+3); Cons 31 (-3); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140707

    Well if there was a Junker bounce, it bounced back?

  33. Alec,

    I think the AS (alternative to Salmond) leader would be the NS (No Salmond) leader and very good she is too.

    I guess there wold be an initial drop off due to lower recognition but given a year to 18 months run up to the Holyrood Elections I think as you suggest the ‘retirement’ would hurt the SNP less than it would have done in the past and certainly did first time around.

  34. Populus seems right at edge of moe if not beyond and no reason for us Lab supporters to get excited.

    Those with access can advise about the 2010 ID which is where they normally favour the Tories v Lab compared to YG.

    Perhaps a proper split this time or even the other way.

  35. How does the weighting to past vote work with Populus?

    Looking at the tables on page 2

    For Fridays Populus, 2010 vote percentages as a percent of the total sample are:
    Conservative – 561/2029 = 28%
    Labour – 389/2029 = 19%
    LD – 329/2029 = 16%

    For today’s Poll:
    Conservative – 523/2053 = 25%
    Labour – 380/2053 = 19%
    LD – 383/2053 = 19%

    So Friday’s poll has 3% more conservative, and 3% less 2010 LD’s than today’s poll. Which could explain much of the movement?

  36. Could well do. 7% will cheer Labour supporters as it’s their largest lead since about January I believe. What looks like a big direct switch from Tory to Labour is probably voters filtering through the LDs and UKIP, since there’s no real reason for Tories to go Labour at the moment. What’s curious is that the Greens are still on about 5 but Labour don’t seem to be suffering too much from it.

  37. Richard,

    Typically Populus understate the 2010 ID and over state the other 2.

    Even today’s has Lab too low relative to Cons but even more striking as you spotted is the major over-stating of the LDs v both the other 2.

    Needs a statto but my guess is that whilst the Lab-Con inaccuracy understates Lab a touch the fact they are attracting 1/3ish of 2010 LDs means that for this poll the net impact is an inacuracy favouring Labour.

    Add a bit of normal variation I guess as well as the above alone can’t explain the change on Friday.

  38. oops forgot a key word.

    Typically Populus understate the 2010 LABOUR ID and over state the other 2

  39. Comparing the above Populus weightings with Sunday’s Yougov

    For yougov the percentages are:

    Conservative = 619/2095 = 30%
    Lab = 482/2095 = 23%
    LD = 446/2095 = 21%

    I’m not sure what an accurate weighting should be to 2010 votes, considering that there will be some element of generational churn with new voters joining, and old voters dying and people who didn’t vote now deciding to vote, but there are clear differences in that weights above which can explain much of the difference on today’s Populus.

  40. @JimJam

    “Populus seems right at edge of moe if not beyond and no reason for us Lab supporters to get excited.”

    You’re right to dampen down on any premature excitement but the next few YouGovs might be worth keeping an eye on, bearing in mind today’s Populus and the weekend Opinium.

    That said, I fully expect tonight’s YouGov to show the Tories ahead!!

    :-)

  41. OldNat
    For the avoidance of doubt please explain why you compared Peter Kellner to Sir Cyril Burt, who is of course famous for constructing data to back up his conclusions.

  42. @RogerH

    I have to say that there’s virtually nothing in that Oborne article about Miliband with which I would disagree.

    I’m now going to lie down in a darkened room because to agree with both Stephen Glover AND Peter Oborne in the same day makes me think that I may need some urgent rest and recuperation!

    :-)

  43. Geez, what’s up with Populus? Is their portal to Earth 616 broken this week?

  44. It does look increasingly difficult for the Yes camp to pull off a victory in Scotland. Looks like they’ll have to persuade all the dont knows and also some of the “Nos” to do it. I did think at the outset it might be a fairly close contest, more “No-ish” but now it seems much firmer “No”.

    I think though that Scots still will be happy to vote for SNP if it is a “No”. If DC gets a majority (!) in 2015 then that will help them. Independence off the table unless DC goes all Thatcherite.

    Labour’s lead in the UK polls hasn’t been 7% for a while, and it seems a sudden bounce rather than a steady trend. The populus result does lend further support to the view that it may be difficult to erode much further. It just keeps on bouncing back up again.

    I do expect the vote shares of Cons and Lab to be roughly the equal in 2015, something like within 1-2% of each other mid 30’s. If it’s the Conservatives ahead – it won’t be by much and thanks to the system as we know, probably not enough to win outright.

  45. Today’s Populus, 2010 recall:

    Con: 36.7%
    Lab: 26.7%
    LD: 26.9%

    Looks like the magic portal is still working. I guess it’s just a outlier.

    Or maybe 616 Ed Miliband developed super powers over the weekend.

  46. Jim Jam

    I think the AS (alternative to Salmond) leader would be the NS (No Salmond) leader and very good she is too.

    I guess there wold be an initial drop off due to lower recognition but given a year to 18 months run up to the Holyrood Elections

    Actually she’s already ahead of him. In MORI’s June figures:

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scottish-pom-charts-june-2014.pdf#page=9

    Nicola Sturgeon had a rating of +13 (51% – 38%) for those satisfied with the “way she was doing her job as Deputy First Minister”. Which is pretty good as she’s also the leader of the Yes campaign and most Scots are currently supporting No.

    Salmond ‘only’ had +5 (49% – 44%). But as I’ve pointed out before, despite the impression that the Press gives that Scottish politics is a stew of virulent hatreds, ordinary Scots actually seem to like all their politicians more than ordinary Brits do. Any of the UK leaders would be envious of the ratings their Scottish counterparts get.

  47. If the tories are marginally ahead (1-2%) in VI in 2015, labour are the largest party…end of story.

  48. Perhaps Jim Jam will have inside knowledge and influence – if not is there anyone else here who has any influence over the design of jam jars?

    I want to know why they are deliberately designed to make it impossible to get the last bits of jam out.

    There has to be a better way.

  49. Roger Mexico,

    Interesting pdf. The gap between Ruth Davidson and David Cameron is particularly striking; she’s only a little more unpopular, net, than Johann Lamont.

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