This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. Tabs are here. The twice-weekly Populus poll also had a one point lead today, CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.

Polls do seem to be showing some narrower Labour leads this week, though really too early to tell if it’s anything meaningful. YouGov definitely seem to be picking up less UKIP support post-Juncker (last week they had UKIP in the range 13%-15%, this week 11%-12%), but the same trend isn’t obvious in Populus’s polls this week.


217 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. Another not very good by-election result for UKIP last night in what should really be the sort of area they need to pick up seats. Tendring District Council, Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring Ward:

    Conservative 376, LD 159, UKIP 154, Labour 129.

  2. @Norbold. Where???

    I think there probably has been a boost for Cons after the Juncker battle, but what must be worrying for Cameron is unlike December 2011 where his veto saw the Cons retake the lead, this one seemingly hasn’t.

    Although I guess that could be the difference the fact that his veto was successful in blocking the treaty whereas this time he was unable to block Juncker.

  3. Can we really take isolated Council by-elections as representative of anything?

    Such elections are subject to so many local factors, I think evaluating them in way is almost impossible and futile.

  4. Populus ‘most noticed news stories’ this week:

    Rolf Harris trial 28%
    World Cup 13%
    Iraq 8%
    Wimbledon 7%
    Israel & Palestinians 5%
    Luis Suarez 3%
    Debate on the EU 3%
    Madeleine McCann 1%
    Phone Hacking trial 1%
    Trial of Oscar Pistorius 1%

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/485018918034370560/photo/1

  5. Catmanjeff,

    Whilst your quite right about reading much into local authority byelection results it was of note that there was a poor showing for ukip across the board in the clutch of byelections yesterday. Also of note was the very high turnout (for local byelections) in some of these seats. The Pendle one stands out not just for turnout but percentage the winning LIB DEM got.

  6. @Bramley

    When you see that list, I wonder what state of total oblivion that people go around in……..

  7. @Bramley

    Is that poll, what individual people thought was the biggest news story of the week, or is 28% had heard this story this week etc?

    I agree with CMJ it is startling how little some people follow events, but then I have to confess I did not know anything regarding Oscar Pistorious or Madeline McCann occured this week.

  8. MiTM / CMJ

    It’s what they most noticed so yes, it seems that most people go around seeing only what applies to their own little world.

    This might give an insight to how polling repeatedly shows that regardless of world events, it’s the things that affect the individual & their nearest & dearest that influences their voting intention.

  9. Looks like I spoke too soon on the Juncker surge, but it’s interesting to compare it to the “veto”. That gained the Tories about 5% of the electorate back from Ukip with YouGov. This one gained them maybe 1.5% if we’re generous.

    Of course it’s a lower profile issue and people might not have heard about it, and Cameron’s efforts was more immediately and obviously futile, but I wonder if it also indicates a broader problem with wooing back the Kippers in this post-omnishambles, Ukip-winning-the-European-Elections world.

  10. I guess ‘most noticed’ struggles to pick up anything that may have a subliminal impact.

  11. @ catmanjeff

    “Can we really take isolated Council by-elections as representative of anything?”

    It was in addition to the one I posted on the last thread also held yesterday, this time in Colchester. Both show UKIP not doing particularly well in the sort of areas they should be doing well in.

  12. @Bramley @ManintheMiddle

    <i.This might give an insight to how polling repeatedly shows that regardless of world events, it’s the things that affect the individual & their nearest & dearest that influences their voting intention.

    Perhaps this is a clear demonstration that when politicians think they are communicating well and getting their message across, they often miss the target by a country mile.

    Big speech at some conference on XYZ? Doesn’t even register…..

  13. @Norwold

    I am currently reading (and enjoying) Nate Silver’s ‘The Signal and the Noise’.

    I get the sense that by-elections throw up more noise that signal.

  14. CATMANJEFF

    @”When you see that list, I wonder what state of total oblivion that people go around in……..”

    What a pompous remark.

    Perhaps “people” might be puzzled by the things which are top of your list.

    Actually, I thought that Populus list was an indictment of the accusation of X Factor mentality in the general population.

  15. I think the Populus question is umprompted but even so it goes to show that most political issues aren’t at the forefront of people’s minds.

    The papers have long liked the Madeleine McCann story (a good old mystery with lots of twists and turns) and it has often shown strongly on the Populus thing. I must admit I’ve long stopped following this one and tend to skip through the pages on it, but it probably does interest your average Sun/ Mail/ Express reader more than the complex issue of the EC Presidency.

    I thus remain unconvinced of any real ‘Juncker effect’, and if there is one it is probably marginal. Why are the polls closing then? Well, UKIP haven’t had much press of late relative to the period around the Euros, LAB have been the ones looking divided and have annoyed a few and with a year to go a few Don’t Knows are prob more willing to say they’ll back the CONs. It could well just be another bump, of which there have now been several taking the scores to around those we’ve seen over the last few days since 2012 when LAB leads of 5 points or so first became the norm. The real time to start thinking that this is a more permanent move will prob be if we start seeing regular cross-overs and CON breaking through the 35 barrier and getting towards 37 and 38.

  16. Anyone got better information (i.e. not the party line) on this?

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/labour-take-the-lead-in-holyrood-poll/

  17. @Bramley “it’s the things that affect the individual & their nearest & dearest that influences their voting intention.”
    I can remember when my interest in the media was confined almost entirely to athletics events to keep track (no pun intended) of my competitors. It influenced my voting intentions not one jot. Those were then based largely on how much tax I was asked to pay.

  18. @”The papers have long liked the Madeleine McCann story (a good old mystery with lots of twists and turns) and it has often shown strongly on the Populus thing. I must admit I’ve long stopped following this one and tend to skip through the pages on it, but it probably does interest your average Sun/ Mail/ Express reader more than the complex issue of the EC Presidency.”

    Jeez !!

    Get over yourself-it isn’t complexity which relegates the EC Presidency for most people-it is its utter boring pointless irrelevancy .

    If you are looking for a Juncker effect, at least look in the right place-UKIP defectors from Cons. And it matters to them, not because of it’s complexity, but because of its symbolisms in their hatred of the European Union.

  19. @Colin

    A very good day to you too :-)

  20. When the EU signs the TTIP, that’s something to really dislike….

  21. Although in one poll Labour were down 2 points this is mainly the Tories going up at UKIP’s expense rather than Labour going down. If Labour can stay at over 35% there will be less alarm, but it has clearly been a better week for the Tories than Labour in the polls. Interesting.

  22. Spearmint
    “Cameron’s efforts was” !
    Were , surely ?
    CMJeff
    Don’t ever forget that less than 4% of the public are REMOTELY INTERESTED in politics, the entry indicator used to be willingness to put up a party poster at election times.
    This is why I love this site, regardless of affiliation we are all members of the same Arcane Guild.

  23. Why catman?

  24. @Ewen

    This is why I love this site, regardless of affiliation we are all members of the same Arcane Guild.

    A nice way of saying nerds?

    (PS proud to be nerd. Nerds made all the big breakthroughs in the world, not folk watching soap operas…)

  25. Good Afternoon All.
    Before the 1935, after the Conference, a nice but not-so-strong Labour leader resigned, and was replaced by Major Attlee. Labour did then recover.
    I wonder whether Labour ‘VI’ might improve if they did this in September.

    Lansbury’s grand daughter did well in the acting trade, and still is.

  26. @Colin

    But I wouldn’t have thought that failing to block Juncker, and the following (and IMO massively over-reactionary) opinion pieces, would have remotely caused those UKIP supporters that hate Europe to go ‘you know what, Cam’s my man’.

    Complexity was probably the wrong word. But try explaining how Juncker landed up being nominated to a non-nerd (as I have) and you’ll realise what a turn-off the issue is.

  27. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1dro426p7j/Times_Scotland_Results_140629_Wednesday_W.pdf

    Hi Statgeek,
    If I’ve copied the link correctly, it should take you to the YG tables for the Labour Holyrood 37 vs SNP 35.

  28. So who ‘s gonna replace Ed then ChrisL ? There is no obvious equivalent of the Hero of Gallipoli.
    Also it would be the equivalent of showing fear in the face of the enemy, having drawn blood the ‘forces of darkness ‘ would show no mercy to Ed’s replacement.

  29. CATMANJEFF……..I’m sure that, after many a hard day breaking through, in the lab / workshop, many of our greatest geeks enjoy a nice cup of cocoa and an enjoyable episode of, Corrie, or, ‘Ender’s, at the same time admiring the 60″ curved screen device that constitutes one of the fruits of their labour, and via which the carp is delivered. :-)

  30. EWEN LIGHTFOOT.
    IMHO, of course, they could do worse than bring back old Anthony L Blair.
    He had a habit of winning GE’s.

  31. @ Chrislane
    Never knew that Angela Lansbury was the grand-d of George!
    She was wonderful in maternal roles, once as Elvis’s mother!, & at her best as the evil, manipulative mother in the Manchurian Candidate.

  32. @CL1945

    Aaaarrgghhh

  33. @CHRISLANE1945: “I wonder whether Labour ‘VI’ might improve if they did this in September.”

    It’s about as unlikely as when you suggested the same thing yesterday.

  34. “He had a habit of winning GE’s.”

    GE’s what?

  35. ROBBIE ALIVE.
    Yes, Angela A is from good stock.

    GUYMONDE.
    Hope you are ok, but I think Blair, senior, or Burnham would do well.

  36. @ Barnaby Marder
    2% is within the usual margin of error and so cannot be ascribed to movement between parties with any certainty.

    @Norbold.
    UKIP are a small party and any canvassing for local Council elections will be done by local groups which may well be poorly resourced and inexperienced. Their higher votes in country-wide Council elections were based on national publicity. The other parties’ existing infrastructure and local contacts will stand them in good stead in Council by-elections. I see in Tendring they got votes in the same range as LD and Labour, which I suspect they would have come nowhere near a few years ago. Doesn’t mean they won’t be disappointed, but shouldn’t be unexpected.

  37. @bramley.

    Interesting info on the news stories. Not surprising really. Big impact on our view of popular culture.

  38. cl45

    “Lansbury’s grand daughter did well in the acting trade, and still is.”

    Still is what? “Didding” well ?

    Back of the class please.

    Also, if you really think Blair would be a sensible choice then you are very, VERY out of touch with political realities.

  39. @CL1945

    Blair would lead to my instant resignation from Lab. I like Andy Burnham but he would have similar image problems to EM. Plus, I think EM has much better grasp and intellect.

  40. @ Ewen,

    Oops! I probably started writing “Cameron” and changed it to “Cameron’s efforts” mid-post, but that’s indefensible, really.

  41. I don’t think the job is well enough remunerated to attract Mr. Blair at this point.

  42. Whilst we’re doing corrections, I noticed that couper2802 wrote this:

    boo’ed

    and want to know what the apostrophe e stands for.

  43. GUYMONDE

    @” I think EM has much better grasp and intellect.”

    Intellectual self-confidence actually.
    He said so himself in an interview with LES.

    He sounded very confident at the time.

  44. If Tony’s coming back we’ll have to have Gordon as well. Can’t have Laurel without Hardy.

  45. I don’t think Attlee had much to do with Labour’s recovery in 1935. At the time his position as leader was temporary – like Margaret Becket following the death of John Smith – and it came as something as a surprise when he was confirmed as leader after the election. He was largely unknown to the wider public and owed his position entirely to having been one of the few to survive the 1931 massacre.. Almost certainly labour would have done just as well had Lansbury remained leader – indeed they had enjoyed some spectacular success at byelections in the preceding few years – East Fulham byelection for example.
    As for bringing back Blair , Labour has surely had enough of being led by a Tory well to the right of Ted Heath, Harold Macmillan, RA Butler, Reggie Maudling.and others.Moreover, why opt to be led by someone more guilty than Ribbentrop and his peers of ‘having planned for war’?

  46. You really are flogging a dead horse I’m afraid Chris.

    They don’t like him.

    Isn’t he tied up helping Egypt for a while ?

  47. Perhaps the Tories could bring back John Major, their last (and only living) election-winning leader.

  48. colin

    “You really are flogging a dead horse I’m afraid Chris.

    They don’t like him.”

    That is not the issue. As I am sure you can figure out for yourself, leaving aside the fact he is not an MP and it wouldn’t happen anyway, it would split the Labour party.

    [Though not down the middle…………………]

  49. Just saw on the beeb a news item about the growing number of paramedics leaving London ‘cos they can’t afford to live there. One showed a payslip of £1900 a month, while his rent is fifteen hundred…

    The problem appears to be accelerating and may not be confined to paramedics with the public sector pay restraint and pensions changes. One wonders how much more of this stuff will hit the news in the next ten months. And beyond that… read in the paper that Chris Leslie is apparently the man to fear in the Labour party at the moment since as shadow chief secretary he’s gonna be the guy telling govt. departments to cut back if Labour get elected, and he’s already pressuring his colleagues on the matter ahead of time…

  50. ” flogging a dead horse ”

    A really ugly image by the way.

    I suppose a live one is worse in reality but we need a better saying I feel – maybe something with Lib Dems in it.

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