ICM’s latest voting intention poll has the lowest level of Labour support since before the 1987 election (according to the Guardian it equals the lowest ever rating by ICM, back in May 1987), and puts them below the symbolic 30% level. It is the largest Conservative lead recorded by ICM since May 1992. The full topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll in the Sunday Telegraph, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(-3), LDEM 22%(+2).

On a uniform swing this level of support would still leave the Conservatives 9 seats short of an overall majority, though in practice it is likely that such a reverse in the positions of the parties would be accompanied by changes in the pattern of tactical voting, meaning that the Conservatives might well get an overall majority.

ICM also asked a series of questions about people’s views of the NHS. 55% of people stil lthink the NHS is the envy of the world and 60% think it would give them excellent care if they were unwell. 71% of people say their family and friends have had a good experience with NHS care. Despite all this, the majority (67%) of people would go private instead if they had the money (including 61% of Labour voters). People seem to be broadly positive towards increased privatye sector involvement in the NHS – 70% of all voters think that private companies should be allowed to care for NHS patients.

Asked how well Labour have cared for the NHS, 25% of people think the NHS has improved under Labour, but 30% think it has got worse. 72% think a lot of the extra money spent on the NHS has been spent badly, with only 14% thinking it has been spent well.


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