Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%. Another two point lead, but it comes after a five point lead yesterday so it could still easily be margin of error.

There’s been a couple of other YouGov polls in the last day or two that I meant to post on but haven’t had the time. First there are the latest Welsh voting intentions for ITV and Roger Scully at Cardiff University. Topline figures there are:

Wales Westminster: CON 25%, LAB 41%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 11%, UKIP 14%
Welsh Assembly constituency: CON 21%, LAB 37%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 20%, UKIP 13%
Welsh Assembly regional: CON 21%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 18%, UKIP 16%

If these figures were repeated at a Welsh Assembly election then Labour would remain just short of a majority on 29 seats, but UKIP would break through with 8 seats and the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 1. Note that the YouGov Welsh weightings have been updated for this poll (detailled here) so I haven’t done changes since last month.

Secondly there was a new Scottish referendum poll for the Times. Topline figures there were YES 35%(-1), NO 54%(+1). Without don’t knows, it becomes YES 39%(-1), NO 61%(+1). That means the last two YouGov Scottish polls have shown a slight movement to NO, but as it has been for the whole campaign, the movements are tiny and barely distinguishable from normal sample error. Other recent Scottish polls have shown movement in the other direction, so I’m still not convincted there is any real movement either way.

There has been some minor movement on the economic questions – by 49%(+4) to 27%(-3) people think Scotland would be worse off economically if it became independent, by 43%(+4) to 17%(-2) they think they personally would be worse off. The changes are since March, and suggests the economic argument may be moving away from the Yes campaign.

While we’re on the subject of Scottish polling, Peter Kellner had a lengthy article looking at a potential cause of the differences between polls here – specifically looking at the recalled Scottish European vote in polls following the European election and the different approaches to weighting by Holyrood past vote. It’s something I may return to in another post if I get time, but worth reading Peter’s take now (UPDATE: And Survation’s take here)


191 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 12”

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  1. @Norbold

    “Patriotic socialist”

    Paul Dacre would say that’s an oxymoron, wouldn’t he?

    By the way, I’m assuming the two votes he/she received in the Wivenhoe Quay council by-election were from himself/herself and a very good friend!

    :-)

  2. JACK SHELDON
    @Rich
    There is quite a lot of evidence that the Tories in particular are in fact selecting far more local parliamentary candidates than ever before. The fact is that under FPTP there will always be outstanding candidates/ those supported by the leadership looking for a seat somewhere because their local one might not be available, they might not be selected or it might not be winnable or sufficiently safe for the calibre of candidate.

    Hi,
    I agree, and this was my point. For all the criticism they get, I have heard Cameron say he wants more local candidates selected and he seems to be trying to do that. Labour however, despite their greater historic links to working classes and communities, seem to be getting too tied to parachuting in professional class people. I can help thinking his is a dangerous strategy for them in terms of perception, but we shall see.

  3. @CB

    Is two votes an all-time record low? I wonder who the ten people were who signed his nomination paper!?

  4. @ Neil A

    The popular perception of police seems to be that they are biased, racist, corrupt and not too bright. I’m not sure if there is polling evidence to back up that impression of popular views, but what strikes me about Neil A’s contributions here is how rare it is to see to see such thoughtful, intelligent and articulate comments from a serving police officer. No doubt it’s online anonymity, however “tissue thin” that allows him to speak so candidly. But my point is that, assuming that Neil is not a rare pearl amongst swine, and that there are many equally intelligent and dedicated officers, their voices are not being heard. Could it be that those who publicly represent the police are subject to the same pressures of sound bites, being on-message, dumbing down etc that so undermine perceptions of current politicians?

  5. NEIL A
    Thanks for your very good post on police behaviour and your response to Maura. Your post deserves more general circulation, though I can’t think how that can be achieved.
    May I ask whether you could add to your post a comment on your experience of two aspects of the effectiveness and even-handedness of policing : one is that of the recruitment of ethnic minorities and their appointment to and support in senior positions; the second is that of the adoption in the population at large of legal behaviour and support for the police in crime prevention, especially in respect of the parenting and community support provided to young poor and ethnic men and women.

  6. A Police and Crime Commissioner (Bob Jones in the WM) died this week so there will be a by-election… guessing the turnout should be fun!

    @RogerH

    I don’t have any data from previous elections but I expect it is normal for the opposition to get in first on candidate selection. Most of their ‘target seats’ candidates will have been selected by constituency associations that feel the seats they lost in 2010 are ‘rightfully theirs’ and want to get that message out on the ground from the off.

    Plus, the ‘target seats’ are ones that LAB were able to hold on to in 2010 so the CONs would prob surprise themselves if they could win more than a handful of them.

  7. Populus this morning:

    LAB 35
    CON 34
    UKIP 14
    LD 9
    GRN 4
    SNP 3
    PC 1

    So not quite cross-over. Similar figures to YG.

  8. It is clear that Labour have hit a ceiling despite Ed being in the media several times this week, which must be a worry.
    On the other side, Tories have had a poll boost at the expense of UKIP. This has lead to a closing of the polls, but the polls Will swing in the next 10months.

  9. “Clegg mania stopped Cameron getting a majority last time”

    Lol

    TOH

    Lol [as ever]

  10. “…assuming that Neil is not a rare pearl amongst swine,”

    An unfortunate choice of phrase in the circumstances!

  11. Norbold,

    Not if you include the whole history of British, Scottish and English parliamentary voting. In the 16th and 17th centuries, for instance, there were two-member constituencies with only one eligible voter.

  12. ^ I’m not too sure about the above claim (it’s from one source) but there were definitely constituencies with 7 eligible electors until 1832, and if these weren’t always uncontested, I imagine that there were some votes close to 1.

    Actually, now I look it up on Wikipedia, the record goes to F. R. Lees, who in the Ripon by-election of 1860 managed to get 0 votes.

  13. ROGERH

    “Business” per se doesn’t get a vote, so I guess their viewpoint is nether good nor bad “for votes”.

    Votes depend on the mood of the electorate on the day.

    But , if so called political leaders ( to use your amusing epithet) try to govern in the face of serious disagreement with significant business leaders , my suggestion would be that this is unwise on a number of fronts.

  14. Thanks Bill.

    I suppose I should have been more precise. I was really meaning since universal franchise.

  15. HH

    @”On the other side, Tories have had a poll boost at the expense of UKIP. ”

    Actually-in that Populus, the changes are :-

    Con +1
    UKIP +2
    Lab -2
    LD -1

  16. Norbold,

    Then I can’t beat it; the closest would be the 9% Growth Party, who got 3 votes in Pollok in 2007.

  17. My recent experience of the police is I was driving home from the airport very late and was pulled over by police. They to step out of the car. When I got out they surrounded me and a policeman came very close to me and asked me a few questions then said ‘Why are you slurring your words’ of course I wasn’t as I don’t even drink. I was surprised. Then he said I have reason to believe you have been drinking and breathilised me. At some point they realised I wasn’t drunk and backed of physically, of course the breathalyser was 0, so they then started to be really nice.

    But thinking afterwards the policeman lied when he said I was slurring my words just so he could breathilyse me. That’s an example of bending the rules.

  18. Colin,

    My take is that Ed very strong EU stance is in part being exaggerated by a need to appear less business unfriendly than the emphasis on some predatory elements within our captalist ranks has perhaps unfairly suggested.

    FWIW – I do think the Tories are friendlier to big business, arguably sometimes too friendly, while Labour has been better with small businesses in general.

    Populus 1 in line with YG 3 so very similar and very tight.

    Both lab and Cons above 35% at the GE imo

  19. @ Neil A

    Always find your posts interesting and tend to nod along with you. Always find it hard to see why we have different political leanings.

    I pretty much accept your stories about individual officers and it’s common sense to assume there will be some low level naughtiness anywhere either because they feel strongly that someone is guilty and need to be prosecuted or just because they are naughty and want a bit of extra overtime/chocolate. It’s just human nature and doesn’t mean there is a massive issue of corruption or bad practice.

    I do think though that at times there can be a culture issue (which I guess is the only thing you can politically address) where a commander filters down to the regular officers a way of doing things. I think this has improved greatly in my lifetime but I’m not quite sure if this is entirely in place yet so would be interested in your views about the consistency of the leadership.

    I’ll take a random example of Hunt Saboteurs which I was active in. Anyone who has been on these things knows the chances of anything kicking off are usually minimal. Pros and antis mingle together with or without police and not many are out for a fight. Even if they were it is not that practical to police a huge area with a hunt constantly on the move. Obviously there can be serious exceptions but those are normally predictable and usually based on whether there is “history” or whether a particular hunt will put up with name calling and a certain amount of disruption or want to bring in some heavies either as pure security or expected to take disruptive action themselves.

    I noticed a huge difference in the attitudes of different police forces. The most common (sensible) approach seemed to be to send out a couple of police at the start and weigh up who was there and the chances of anything kicking off and then go away again. Others hung around with differing attitudes. We had one officer say “do what you like today can’t stand them” whereas another force would be down in large numbers, some even bringing police horses to follow the hunt and wouldn’t be happy until they had a load of arrests. This isn’t coming from the individuals on duty, this is a culture put in place by someone higher up. While you could put this down to differences to do with resources or tactical policing you couldn’t help feeling that ultimately this came down to which “side” the Chief Constable, or someone lower down the chain, was on.

    I think what people are most concerned about though is the big “conspiracy” and where policing becomes political or cultural. It’s probably not something you deal with so you might not be able to comment with authority but I think what people would like to know is whether these historical cases are now historical or whether they will continue to happen.

    I’d say my biggest concerns at the moment are the undercover operations, authorised at a high level, that can’t yet be put in the category of historical. Also whether the police really have the political authority or the will to take on something like GCHQ if a whistleblower tells them they have information that the law has been broken.

    On another point you made about data weaknesses, I think there is also another problem that it is not joined up with other agencies. If you take child protection it involves, police, schools, social workers, doctors. I know my wife in education is always having issues about “not knowing something” about a child either from a previous school or from the police or whoever. Whether some of this comes down to data protection issues or expense/paperwork I think there would be a huge benefit if there were a system for sharing this information. It could be a little thing like a child kicking off in class because the police have been out at 2 in the morning to a domestic or it could be far more serious where teachers, doctors etc need to be paying close attention for signs of abuse.

  20. @Colin

    Well I was thinking ‘popular or unpopular’ rather than ‘wise or unwise’. At what point does a ‘business leader’ become a ‘fat cat’?

  21. @HH: “It is clear that Labour have hit a ceiling despite Ed being in the media several times this week, which must be a worry.”

    I’m not sure that a ceiling of 38% is too much to worry about.

  22. “Clegg mania stopped Cameron getting a majority last time”

    perhaps a bit more “Cameron mania” might have helped?

  23. RogerH,

    You knind of make my point.

    In attacking fat cats Labour has been portrayed in some quarters as anti-business imo unfairly but since when has fairness matter in political perceptions.

    The strong line that the 2017 Referendum is damaging business due to uncertainty is an important rebuttal of the anti-business charge.

  24. Do we really need to ponder whether or not a perception of Labour is fairly or unfairly held?

  25. I was only wondering if the perception, whether fair or unfair, would gain or lose Labour votes. Being seen as business-friendly doesn’t appeal to everyone.

  26. It would be mighty interesting to see what happens if Ashcroft repeated his polling in Caroline Lucas’ Brighton Pavilion seat.

    The local paper is reporting that Jason Kitkat wants a 5.9% increase in council tax – a move I doubt many will support.

  27. statgeek

    Lastly, I believe (some) polling companies were restricting new sign ups (supposedly to prevent Yes folk loading the polls).

    If there has been a shift to Yes, :

    a) Wouldn’t the polling companies miss this given the top para?

    b) Have polling companies with such practices just loaded the polls with No folk?

    Panelbase announced last September that no one who joined their panel after June 2013 would be included in any published political polling:

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/PanelbaseCommentsOnScottishPolls.pdf

    and other companies may have done similar (ICM’s panel was semi-closed last time I looked but that could be for other reasons[1]). But if the pre-deadline mix in the panel is representative, that should remain so if there are changes in public opinion, because the panel will already contain the appropriate number of people who change their minds. The panels are closed to all all recently joining voters: Yes, No and Swithering.

    [1] In addition “Due to changes to the way we operate, the Survation Panel is not currently accepting new members”. It may be that they are deciding to ‘buy in’ respondents from other, consumer-orientated, panels as being easier (because you avoid the overheads of panel maintenance) and more likely to give a representative result.

  28. Wee Eck booed in Rosyth, what effect will this have on ref VI, if any?

  29. None. Next?

  30. @NeilA

    Sorry for replying late to your excellent response. I have just returned from a camping trip.

    Your response was as excellent as usual. It does give me confidence that things are better than ever before.

    I think the police are like social workers and other public servants. They are often blamed for societies ills, quite unfairly. The public opinion of what is right is often contradictory and counter to the evidence.

    I think that the senior people from a long time ago were probably retired off with much rejoicing by the more forward thinking younger people remaining. People living in the past in any organisation in a senior position can often be a massive blockage to improvement.

    Thanks again Neil.

  31. JIM JAM

    Thanks.

    My comments were based on the Indy report. He was roundly criticised on business policy-but applauded on his EU referendum stance. It was this which prompted the thoughts I expressed.

    I refrain from commenting on Poll direction of travel-that Monty Python 16 tonne weight is the fate of all who pronounce psephological certainties at present :-)

  32. ROGERH

    Dunno-about the same point as a Politician, a LA leader, an NHS Consultant ….?

  33. Mr Wells
    I bet the next ref poll shows a decline in the Yes VI.

  34. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “I have no problem with the state competing with the private sector provided the competition is real, but I suspect therein lies the problem.”

    ———

    Well the problem is also that quite often, the private competition isn’t very real either!!

    It’s an idea that’s been mentioned on here before, in the case of the banks for example, where it would have been really handy to have a state bank ready and able to step in a provide finance to all those companies that ended up going to the wall when the commercial banks froze up.

    Then as the private sector banks recover the state bank can withdraw and have a lesser role.

  35. @ToH

    i.e. you limit state involvement to what is necessary, and ramp up when needed, giving a bit of a safety net when needed, and encouraging better behaviour. You can’t just leave the private sector to it as they will either screw up or really take the mick, or both as we saw in the banking crisis, and some of the things we need it is not in their interests to provide, or they don’t have the capability (drug companies providing treatments rather than cures, or the internet being too long term for the private sector to invest etc.). So it’s about what is the best way to involve the state.

  36. @ROGER MEXICO: “a) Wouldn’t the polling companies miss this given the top para?”

    If their existing samples are representative they’ll exhibit the same movements in opinion as in the wider world.

  37. Ewen Lightfoot: “Wee Eck booed in Rosyth, what effect will this have on ref VI, if any?”

    Very little, I’d expect. Although there’ll more likely be some more ‘outrage’ from the nats about “the ugly side of Scottish Unionism”:

    h ttp://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/5834-glasgow-olympic-shame-of-scottish-unionism

  38. @Ewan Lightfoot

    You mean the polls that show Alex Salmond as the only leader in the UK with a positive approval rating? None. Why would anyone change their opinion because a bunch of political opponents boo’ed him.

  39. Bill Patrick:-
    “Then I can’t beat it; the closest would be the 9% Growth Party, who got 3 votes in Pollok in 2007. ”

    In 2005 Gen elect., Cardiff North, Rainbow Dream Ticket: Catherine Taylor-Dawson got 1 vote. (Hers – I hope!).

    BR

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