Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%. Another two point lead, but it comes after a five point lead yesterday so it could still easily be margin of error.
There’s been a couple of other YouGov polls in the last day or two that I meant to post on but haven’t had the time. First there are the latest Welsh voting intentions for ITV and Roger Scully at Cardiff University. Topline figures there are:
Wales Westminster: CON 25%, LAB 41%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 11%, UKIP 14%
Welsh Assembly constituency: CON 21%, LAB 37%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 20%, UKIP 13%
Welsh Assembly regional: CON 21%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 18%, UKIP 16%
If these figures were repeated at a Welsh Assembly election then Labour would remain just short of a majority on 29 seats, but UKIP would break through with 8 seats and the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 1. Note that the YouGov Welsh weightings have been updated for this poll (detailled here) so I haven’t done changes since last month.
Secondly there was a new Scottish referendum poll for the Times. Topline figures there were YES 35%(-1), NO 54%(+1). Without don’t knows, it becomes YES 39%(-1), NO 61%(+1). That means the last two YouGov Scottish polls have shown a slight movement to NO, but as it has been for the whole campaign, the movements are tiny and barely distinguishable from normal sample error. Other recent Scottish polls have shown movement in the other direction, so I’m still not convincted there is any real movement either way.
There has been some minor movement on the economic questions – by 49%(+4) to 27%(-3) people think Scotland would be worse off economically if it became independent, by 43%(+4) to 17%(-2) they think they personally would be worse off. The changes are since March, and suggests the economic argument may be moving away from the Yes campaign.
While we’re on the subject of Scottish polling, Peter Kellner had a lengthy article looking at a potential cause of the differences between polls here – specifically looking at the recalled Scottish European vote in polls following the European election and the different approaches to weighting by Holyrood past vote. It’s something I may return to in another post if I get time, but worth reading Peter’s take now (UPDATE: And Survation’s take here)