The monthly ComRes telephone poll is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are since the last ComRes telephone poll, just before the European election.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The two point Labour lead there is the lowest that YouGov have shown for about a fortnight, but again, not beyond the normal margin or error for an average lead of four points or so.

Two polls showing a reduced Labour lead of two points, plus the Ashcroft poll showing a Tory lead. There will be a temptation to interpret this as a “Juncker effect”. On the other hand Populus’s poll this morning had a four point Labour lead, the changes in ComRes are month-on-month, so don’t need to be related to the last couple of days and there’s really nothing here yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation. For now I would’t read too much into it.


66 Responses to “ComRes and YouGov both show 2 point Labour leads”

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  1. ROGERH

    The “salience” which matters for DC , is that of UKIP voters.

  2. Only politics Junckies*** are aware of any detail re EU.

    Interesting that EM’s policy announcements seem to receive so little coverage…. although that could be ‘cos I haven’t watched any news and it wasn’t mentioned on the footy progs.

    *** carp joak.

  3. In local news: my head and back are aching but it is quite sunny. Almost like July in fact.

    Well, May, anyway.

  4. Interesting and intriguing that France has upheld the ban on full veils.

    Personally I would never choose to talk to someone wearing one and since it is clearly an optional extra [even if one takes religion very seriously] I don’t understand why it is tolerated – especially in the workplace.

  5. The problem with relying upon “standing up to Europe” to gather support is that it only does so when Europe is a major news issue at a summit or whatever. At General Elections it seems to slip right down most people’s agendas. I remember how Hague got virtually no traction with his ten days to save the pound amongst voters.

    It seems that Europe, in terms of constitutional & sovereignty issues only gets voters on the Conservative/UKIP fringes worked up to any major degree.

    Europe has only just recently gained any salience at all with potential Labour voters over the issue of immigration. This will be harder to run with in a GE campaign by UKIP as only the sort of Diehards who previously actually voted BNP at GEs would be likely to stick with UKIP on this issue, rather than revert to their usual communal Labour voting habits IMO.

    So, all-in-all, I don’t think Europe, either on constituional/sovereignty questions or immigration will be a major vote mover – it will be in the end our old friend – the economy – which determines who wins in 2015 IMO.

  6. @R&D

    Like many things in life, whether something is regarded as ‘optional’ depends a bit on whether you want to make a statement or not.

  7. @R&D

    Like many things in life, whether something is regarded as ‘optional’ depends a bit on whether you want to make a statement or not.

  8. No idea why that went on before I’d finished it. What I was going on to say is that I find France’s approach to public expression of religion very disturbing. I’d much rather have the US version of separation of church and state, where people are allowed to express their religious or non-religious loyalties without fear of being persecuted – provided, of course, people stick within the general law. So I’m not in favour of burning copies of the Qu’uran, for example, as this is obviously an incitement to hatred. Wearing the burkah, on the other hand, is no different from wearing a cross or a kippah (Jewish head covering).

  9. Ashcroft poll of Lab-LD marginals

    “This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election….”

    The Times got the 7 right but missed out the 1.

    That said Ashcroft polled only the 4 ultra LD held marginals plus Brighton, which is again a disappointing choice.

    New thread imminent I suspect.

  10. JB

    It is the same as people wearing masks and my guess is that most people would find it disturbing even though I take your point.

    Much depends on how far down the road of “This book/this priest says this” when it is, at best, just someone else’s interpretation and how far you want to follow social norms.

    It may be a long step but its still only a step away, and using the same logic, to argue that “this book/this prieast thinks I should slaughter people.”

    If it is the belief in “the book” that allows the former then why shouldn’t it also allow the latter?

  11. West Midlands PCC Bob Jones has died.

    (Do we have by-elections for these?)

  12. @KeithP

    I was a friend of Bob’s for the last 32 years.

    On the morning of someone’s death, it’s respectful to focus solely on their memory.

  13. PH

    Very true – bit like someone announcing I’m dead and does anyone fancy my widow.

  14. ‘Interesting and intriguing that France has upheld the ban on full veils.
    Personally I would never choose to talk to someone wearing one and since it is clearly an optional extra [even if one takes religion very seriously] I don’t understand why it is tolerated – especially in the workplace.’

    France didnt – the EU court did.

    No problem with people wearing a full veil. It’s what the person says or does which is important, not how they dress. If people choose to wear anything why should I tell them not to? There is lot of fashion I’d prefer to ban instead – starting with female leggings…

    It’s the person who matters not the clothing…

  15. Just reading some headlines in the Times… Ofgem are warning of what Alec’s been on about: a supply crunch means we’re facing the lights dimming next winter. And Lord Hezza is saying British workers’ output is 20% less than the G7 average “because they don’t get up early enough or work hard enough.”

    Doesn’t apply to this board obviously. And we’re not even on a zero hours contract…

  16. “There is lot of fashion I’d prefer to ban instead – starting with female leggings…”

    ———–

    Does that mean male leggings are ok? ‘Cos I’m really not so sure about that…

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