The monthly ComRes telephone poll is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are since the last ComRes telephone poll, just before the European election.
Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The two point Labour lead there is the lowest that YouGov have shown for about a fortnight, but again, not beyond the normal margin or error for an average lead of four points or so.
Two polls showing a reduced Labour lead of two points, plus the Ashcroft poll showing a Tory lead. There will be a temptation to interpret this as a “Juncker effect”. On the other hand Populus’s poll this morning had a four point Labour lead, the changes in ComRes are month-on-month, so don’t need to be related to the last couple of days and there’s really nothing here yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation. For now I would’t read too much into it.