Three new polls so far today – the two regular GB polls from Ashcroft and Populus and ComRes’s monthly marginals poll. Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. This is the first Conservative lead in a poll since that brief narrowing in mid-May. As ever, don’t get too excited about a single poll, it could be repeated in other polling and be the first sign of a genuine movement… or it could just be a blip. Meanwhile Populus’s twice weekly poll this morning had rather more typical figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (tabs here.)
Finally ComRes have released the second of their regular polls of marginal seats. I wrote about the first here. ComRes’s regular marginal polls cover the 40 most marginal Con v Lab seats, 25 held by the Tories, 15 held by Labour. At the last election the vote in these seats was CON 37%, LAB 37%. Today’s poll has voting intentions of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 17%. This is a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour, the equivalent of a 2 point Conservative lead in a national poll. Hence it suggests the Conservatives are doing better in the Con-Lab marginals than in national polls (the poll shows some movement towards Labour in the marginals since May, but the previous poll was taken during that brief narrowing of the polls in mid-May, so the change reflects the national picture). The ComRes marginal polls remain in contrast to Lord Ashcroft’s most recent marginal polls which suggested the marginal picture is much the same as the national picture.