Three new polls so far today – the two regular GB polls from Ashcroft and Populus and ComRes’s monthly marginals poll. Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. This is the first Conservative lead in a poll since that brief narrowing in mid-May. As ever, don’t get too excited about a single poll, it could be repeated in other polling and be the first sign of a genuine movement… or it could just be a blip. Meanwhile Populus’s twice weekly poll this morning had rather more typical figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (tabs here.)

Finally ComRes have released the second of their regular polls of marginal seats. I wrote about the first here. ComRes’s regular marginal polls cover the 40 most marginal Con v Lab seats, 25 held by the Tories, 15 held by Labour. At the last election the vote in these seats was CON 37%, LAB 37%. Today’s poll has voting intentions of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 17%. This is a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour, the equivalent of a 2 point Conservative lead in a national poll. Hence it suggests the Conservatives are doing better in the Con-Lab marginals than in national polls (the poll shows some movement towards Labour in the marginals since May, but the previous poll was taken during that brief narrowing of the polls in mid-May, so the change reflects the national picture). The ComRes marginal polls remain in contrast to Lord Ashcroft’s most recent marginal polls which suggested the marginal picture is much the same as the national picture.


79 Responses to “Ashcroft, Populus and ComRes marginals”

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  1. @Colin

    Ooooh, I hadn’t seen the most recent index. That’s a bit of a change with the EU thing. EU elections recently raising the profile of course, we’ll see how things develop, Not surprised about Immigration though, we’ve known that’s been the trend for a while…

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  2. CAFREW

    @” we’ll see how things develop,”

    The gravestone inscription which identifies an old UKPR reader :-) :-)

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  3. Ashcroft’s marginal polls always seem so interesting and useful. However, his national polls have been wildly swinging about, so much so that one doesn’t know quite what to make of them – has anybody any idea why this should be so? Is he doing anything radically different from the other polling companies?

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  4. Does anyone know anyone under the age of 60 who is going to vote Tory at the next election – or at least admits to it?
    This is a genuine question.

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  5. Doesn’t it all depend on the UKIP vote holding up ?

    If UKIP hold onto their 13% – 14% vote Labour will walk it.

    If however the UKIP vote diminishes at the election , and IF those votes go to the Tories , they should get in.

    Just my uneducated rumblings.

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  6. The poll may be a Turkey, but one possibility that struck me re the EU summit and the various responses was that on the domestic stage EM having a dig at DC is quite acceptable, but transpose DC onto the international stage and does it then become more of a case of GB vs Europe and ridiculing him personally then risks being seen as ridiculing GB in Europe? Just a thought, time may tell.

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  7. @Paul A,

    If that’s a genuine question then you are an idiot.

    (I say this not to suggest that you are an idiot, but to suggest that you’re misrepresenting a partisan comment as a genuine statement).

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  8. The important thing to notice about the polls isn’t who is front etc, but the fact that neither of the two main parties are anywhere near, (labour just) the sort of levels they need to have a working majority.

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  9. @David,

    I’m not sure that’s right. With the right split between Tory and UKIP, and the LDs staying suppressed, Labour should be able to get a majority on less than a third of the vote.

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  10. i) I think it was totally predictable that Cameron/Tories would achieve a short term poll boost because of the EU situation – largely because of the way it has been presented in the press but also because we (UK) seem to really like a ‘standing up to Europe’ and being the underdog narrative. However I also don’t think it will last and, if the issue of Europe remains in the news, it will only benefit UKIP and thus punish the Tories

    ii) I don’t know how the Conservatives/Cameron get out of this bind: – the more they rubbish the EU the more popular they are short-term but then they cannot ever deliver the total rejection of the EU which UKIP offers without losing a large section of their supporters; however if they don’t give that total rejection they lose a (different) large section of their supporters.

    Explains why the referendum is offered AFTER the election.

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  11. Puzzling thing about the Ashcroft poll is that only 25% of people wanted a Conservative government – compared to 32% who wanted a Labour government. Yet the poll shows Conservatives ahead.

    Am I missing something? How does that work?

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  12. Maura

    I noticed in the last thread that you had just “got” carp.

    I came across it first in a Times crossword where the clue was.

    “CARP” anagram of something that is shi**y in a rubbishy sort of way.

    ….and I didn’t get it either. I thought it was “prac” as I prefer to improve my pieces by osmosis.

    Anyway, these polls are definitely parc in my ‘umble view.

    Back to the footy.

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  13. “Am I missing something? How does that work?”

    Well, not logically, that’s for sure.

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  14. @PaulA

    I am well under 60 and will almost certainly (barring a huge shift to the right) vote CON in 2015

    LAB have a two-point lead with YouGov. Lower than recently but nothing particularly out of the ordinary.

    LAB 37
    CON 35
    UKIP 12
    LD 8

    Mike Smithson tweeted earlier that there is another phone poll due out tonight. Do we know who that is and when we might see it?

    NB: Picked up a copy of the Standard today and their ‘story’ on the ComRes ‘Battlebus’ poll seems to have completely misread the results. They were hailing it as good news for LAB when in reality a lead as small as that shown across constituencies that were virtual dead heats in 2010 would appear to bode well for the CONs.

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  15. And as I type that the ComRes/Independent phone poll is out. Again it shows a LAB lead on the small side but, as usual with ComRes, UKIP are flying compared to YouGov.

    LAB 32
    CON 30
    UKIP 18
    LD 7

    Anthony: Ignore my post in perjury, I have removed the ‘offending’ word

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  16. I am confused and I am sure everyone will feel sorry for me but how is a laboiur lead of x points converted into a tory lead of 2 points.

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  17. HOOKSLAW
    Con was about 8% ahead of Lab in 2010. But marginals were, by definition, pretty much even. So a 5% Lab lead in the marginals means a Con lead of about 2%, if things are a-swingin’ uniformly.

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  18. Aaaaaaaand apologies to Hookeslaw, and even more so to Hooke, for the typo.

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  19. @RosieandDaisie,

    I think you’re being a bit harsh on the whole “carp” meme.

    For me, saying “Ed is Carp” is not just a cutesy thing, but an implied meaning that the message from the right-leaning media is not just ad hominem but also inaccurate.

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  20. Ta for that Neil and I shall start using it regler meself now.

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  21. I presumed it was just a way to get around automatic moderation.

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  22. @COLIN

    “The gravestone inscription which identifies an old UKPR reader :-) :-)”

    ————

    Lol, well observed Col. It is though just one occurrence of EU salience after many moons of not being up on the electorate’s radar, one which happens to coincide with the EU elections. Whether it continues depends to some extent on something not 100% predictable: e.g. to what extent Cameron or press etc. manage to keep the EU prominent. Thus far we’ve had Juncker… do you know of anything else?

    That said, some of us have been known to come off the fence a bit. Those of us who predicted the impact of cuts on growth and need for a stimulus, those who’ve been talking about the lack of drivers for wage increases etc.

    What’s interesting is the way the government responds to such things, but not always in the way one might think. Did anyone here see “Help to Buy” coming? Or Flexible Working?…

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  23. Hannah

    “I presumed it was just a way to get around automatic moderation.”

    No… writing “crap” is cool.

    “Carp” is a sort of cutsie, bonding thing and I am going to try and fit in whenever relevant [or not]

    You should do the same.

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  24. You still on about this?? You’re getting it all mixed up and all wound up over nothing.

    “oany won” is an attempt to be cutesy.
    “carp” is a shared expression which lightheartedly and efficiently discounts the “Ed’s carp” meme. That’s why people only tend to use it for that.
    The BANTER is people bonding a bit over things in common.

    It’s ok, you have the monopoly on the cutesy stuff!! You can let it go now!!…

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  25. carfrew

    Cahm down, cahm down, as the scousers say.

    It was Neil A who described it as “cutesy” so have a pop at him.

    I am not wound up in the slightest by the way so try to be more laid back about it – you shouldn’t be up this late, tellin’ people off anyway.

    tata

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  26. Aw, don’t feel told off, I was just reassuring ya about the cutesy thing, being as I was up late anyway programming some sounds. You can do your own telling off and tell Neil yourself if you’re that keen on the telling off thing… personally I wouldn’t bother. Anyways, if you’ve calmed down now that’s good and you don’t need to keep going on about it. Job done, nite Paul!!

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  27. Anyways, looking at the Issue tracker for June, the crossover between immigration and the economy is quite a jump, because immigration rose while the economy also fell as a concern having flatlined for the last three months. Unemployment remains at the same level of concern though, and poverty/inequality is still creeping up. Housing has been creeping up too… now seventh, where it was tenth a few months ago…

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  28. If that really is the position in the marginals at the moment then it shows a great deal of votes are up in the air.
    UKIP will not poll 17% in a General Election in the marginal seats.
    However, some encouragement for the Tories if the big Labour swings are happening more in LD-Lab areas or safer Labour seats where the LDs made inroads in 2001-5-10.

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  29. Really very little one can say that points to an overall Lib Dem majority next time.

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