The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here. Topline voting intention figures are a very normal CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. The rest of the poll dealt with Europe, Coulson and Iraq.

Dealing with Europe first, by 40% to 14% people thought Cameron was right to oppose Juncker, 46% of people said don’t know. On the other hand, 36% of people said it has probably damaged Britain’s ability to negotiate in Europe, 7% say it has probably helped. Note the fieldwork was done before the summit.

On Coulson YouGov asked how seriously people took Cameron’s error in appointing Coulson. 34% said it was a very serious error, 36% a fairly serious error, but no worse than many others made by politicians, 21% not seriously at all. Looking at the crossbreaks though is a salient reminder of why things like this don’t really make much difference to voting intentions – people see them through the prism of their pre-existing political views. 59% of Labour voters saw the appointment of Coulson as a very serious error, only 6% dismissed it as not being serious. 48% of Tory voters dismissed it as nothing serious, only 9% thought it was a very serious error. On the wider issues around phone hacking, by 53% to 33% people think the thorough investigation was worthwhile and 69% think the CPS was right to attempt the prosecution of Rebekah Brooks and let the jury decide, despite her ultimate acquittal. People are pretty evenly split over whether the investigations and prosecutions will make journalists behave better in the future – 44% think they will, 47% think they won’t.

Turning to Iraq, public opinion remains extremely negative towards Britain’s role in the Iraq war and its consequences. 59% think Britain and the USA were wrong to take military action against Iraq, 62% think it has increased the risk of terrorist attack against Britain, 48% think it’s made the world less safe and 40% think it has made the ordinary lives of Iraqis worse. 67% of people think that British “jihadists” going to Syria or Iraq to fight do pose a risk when they return to Britain, 17% think the risk has been exaggerated. 63% think Muslim community leaders in Britain should do more to prevent it, 61% think social media sites should do more to remove jihadists recruiting material.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with fieldwork conducted on Friday (tabs here). Topline figures there were CON 27%(nc), LAB 36%(+4), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 22%(-1). The rest of the poll dealt mostly with Juncker, and again opinions are split largely along existing party lines – so 38% saw Cameron’s opposition to Juncker as a sign of strength, 36% as a sign of weakness… but 75% of Tories thought it was a sign of strength, 57% of Labour voters thought it was a sign of weakness.


140 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 14”

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  1. first?

    this is real polldrum stuff…labour’s lead seems to be about 3-4 points within margin of error.

    same old. same old. the tories are definitely up against it. no one seems to have explained why they have simply flatlined since August (admittedly with a small increase after the budget).

    The economic outlook is actually a lot better than last August, but neither the conservatives or the lib dems seem to have benefited.

  2. I prefer the YouGov Poll to the Survation one-I think their UKIP number looks too high.

    Very interesting reports on the events in Ypres over the last few days. DC either misread, or was misled by Merkel’s ambivalence on Juncker. Probably the former, since she is reported to have apologised to him for the u-turn.

    What great footy matches-underdogs the better team in both-pity they didn’t both come through. Chile certainly deserved to.

  3. ……I meant “probably the latter” !

  4. Lot of strikes on the way.

  5. For clarification, from previous thread:

    The EU is neither fascist nor neo-fascist, and I am not suggesting this. The Germans recognised after WWII (which they did not accept in 1918) that military might was not the way to achieve their objectives.

    What I am proposing is that:
    a) the EU’s views and those of its founders are inflenced by the corporatist/authoritarian/pan-European vision akin to that espoused by pre-WWII fascism; and
    b) the Germans, as the largest ethnic group in Europe, see themselves as the natural leaders of the movement towards ever closer (European) union.

    However honey-tongued Merkel, Juncker and other like-minded Europeans are in their utterances, such views are an anathema from a British perspective, but the Celtic nations, with their volkisch approach, see a niche for themselves in a German-led Europe of the Regions.

  6. Good Morning from another beautiful day here.
    Some people will cheer the Daily M for the first time today.

    Looks like being a very close race.

  7. I think @drunkenscouser has the correct analysis of why there seems to be no benefit to the coalition from the economic upturn – employers logically have no reason to reward their employees at the present time, they in turn see no benefit from the past four years – the worrying thing for the tories is that the number of people thinking their circumstances will worsen next year is going up. Could an interest rate rise be psychologically damaging even if it’s a sign of economic progress?

    @drunkenscouser….

    “1. Unemployment- Even during the ‘good times’ of the 2000s we still had a rate of unemployment that would have been considered shockingly high in the 1950s. The ‘reserve army of labour’ factor decreases peoples’ bargaining power.
    2. Decline of unions- Only about 26% of the workforce are union members nowadays, compared to over half in the 1970s.
    3.Skills- The trend in recent decades has been towards greater numbers of highly-skilled jobs and more menial jobs. The number mid-skilled jobs makes up a lower proportion.”

  8. Colin
    You mean you thought Uruguay looked the better team than Colombia? Or that Colombia were the underdogs based on rankings (Uruguay certainly felt like the underdogs based on the respective group stages).

    Polls, polls, better make a token polling comment…Lab lead reasserting post-Euros despite simultaneously worsening in “trusted with the economy” and Miliband personal ratings. Seems to me the Conservatives haven’t neutralised the large “Anyone But Con” vote which I think has been Britain’s largest voting bloc for many years. I thought the Cameron governent would be their chance to address this, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.

  9. I guess it may take another few days to see how this EU business plays for Mr Cameron – last time after all it did him good in the polls. It will also be interesting to see how it plays with Scotland.

    The body language between Cameron and Salmond didn’t seem that good on Saturday. But I only saw a clip on TV and perhaps like all partisans I saw only what i wished to see. If the result is close in the next election then I would think the Nationalists may hold some sway in the Commons.

    Happy Peter’s Day as we once were wont to say….

    I do not know why if this EU abscess is going to fester and this referendum business will settle matters for thirty years why we don’t just have a referendum on the day of the General Election. After all we were told by the coalition over AV we were big enough and ugly enough to think about two things at once. Frankly most of up have made up our minds long ago and it would be better now to end the uncertainty and prick the UKIP balloon.

    Sorry that’s my opinion and off limits to the principles here….please take it as a passing fancy….enjoy the Sunday sun…

  10. I think the polls are static because everyone is watching the World Cup… Except DaoDao who is mass producing tin foil hats!

    Peter.

  11. @ John Murphy

    It will be interesting to see the impact of DC’s performance in Europe on the polls for the referendum on 18/9/14, but why do you suggest that it should have been deferred until the UK GE?

  12. “On Coulson YouGov asked how seriously people took Cameron’s error in appointing Coulson. 34% said it was a very serious error, 36% a fairly serious error, but no worse than many others made by politicians”
    ________

    Yeah storm in a tea cup, not exactly going to run the country into the ground as some would have you believe.

  13. Peter Cairns-

    I think you’re right. people’s attentions are elsewhere. It’ll be interesting to see where we are, pollwise, in October.

    I am beginning to think a lot of the pundits could be getting this cycle wrong.

    The assumption, among bookies and a large section of the hacks, is that the tories will pick up two points and that both labour and the tories will get similar VI next year. there’s also an assumption that the lib dems will improve and UKIP will fall back.

    But what if nothing much changes from now? It’s been quite a static last year. Labour I think could win the popular vote by 2 points and get a majority, from where we are now. I also think that UKIP could outpoll the Lib Dems very easily.

  14. Eddie

    No -I had Columbia as underdogs- I hope they beat Brasil. I think they are capable.

  15. Survation should be ashamed to call themselves a polling firm. It seems to be more a UKIP tool. There isn’t a chance UKIP are remotely that popular, I wonder how valid their data and reading of it is?

  16. “Turning to Iraq, public opinion remains extremely negative towards Britain’s role in the Iraq war and its consequences. 59% think Britain and the USA were wrong to take military action against Iraq, 62% think it has increased the risk of terrorist attack against Britain, 48% think it’s made the world less safe and 40% think it has made the ordinary lives of Iraqis worse.”
    __________

    Iraq was a disaster before during and after the US invasion. The only conclusion I can see is that the West has made Iraq and the middle east a quagmire for terrorism.

  17. there’s too much bloody* football and I am a season ticket holder at CPFC

    if since the last GE this is like a 5000 metre race Red Ed will surely be looking to start sprinting in the last 500 metres – round about October?

    * apologies for the choice language

  18. I’m always wary of “Do more to prevent it” questions that lead towards positive outcomes from undefined actions. “Should government do more to reduce taxes?” “Should you do more to improve your diet?” “Should pubs charge less for beer?” The respondent will always be tilted towards answering yes, enough that it’s really a meaningless question. And even if it were, it doesn’t say anything about exactly what should be done, or if the things that could be done would help.

  19. There was some excitement/squeaky bums when there were a few polls showing tories and labour neck and neck a back in april. Some people were seeing this as the inexorable grinding down of labours lead as may 2015 approached and the economic improvement filtered through. It also spurred the blairites into taking to the newspapers to talk up a labour leadership crises
    As it turns out it looks to have been a brief blip and we are back where we were over a year ago.
    Going by you gov, there seems to be a labour floor and a tory ceiling of around 35%. I think only some sort of political earthquake is going to shift that, meaning the very best the tories can hope for is being (marginally) the biggest single party in a hung parliament – and even thats looks to be agasint the odds.

    If you push asisde all the waffle and piles of statistical analysis I think it boild down to two simple questions.

    Who is going to vote tory who didn’t in 2010?
    Who is going to vote labour who didn’t in 2010?

    The answer to the first question seems to be – not that many people. I suspect many people didn’t vote tory in 2010 because they still saw them as too ‘nasty’. I dont think many of them will have been won over.
    They may have gained some voters who have been impressed by their economic performance – but I cant see that being a huge number – several years of flatlining followed by a return to moderate growth with little improvement on peoples wages is not a voter harvesting boom. And then you have UKIP.

    Who will vote labour who didn’t in 2010? Well its the disaffected lib dems – a big chunk of them. and all the evidence points to them staying in the labour camp.

    I dont see either of these factors changing in the tories favour over the next 10 months. The ukip votes will surely come down – but they look good for getting 10% – but these are definitely NOT all tory supporters. Looking at the polls the tories look to have lost 4 – 5% their vote since 2010. A big chunk – but not all – to UKIP. So a reduction of the UKIP vote by – say – 5% – will not translate directly into tory votes – maybe 3% but also a percentage point going to labour. Simarlly not all the lib dem collapse has gone to labour – the greens and UKIP also seem to have benefitted.

    All factors considered Im sticking to my prediction of torys 33-35. Labour 36-38. UKIP at least 10%. Lib dems 10% at best.

  20. “. 67% of people think that British “jihadists” going to Syria or Iraq to fight do pose a risk when they return to Britain, 17% think the risk has been exaggerated. 63% think Muslim community leaders in Britain should do more to prevent it, 61% think social media sites should do more to remove jihadists recruiting material”
    __________

    Surely part of the blame should be aimed at our endless and continued interference in other countries. After all they see British troops being sent in to depose of despots and continued negativity against foreign leaders such as in Syria it’s little wonder we see the creation of British “jihadists wanting to go out and fight against the very people our governments despise.

  21. ChrisLane
    “Some people will cheer the Daily M for the first time today.”

    That headline about naming & shaming GP’s ?

    It’s inflammatory nonsense & won’t help improve standards. Instead it will drive Doctors away from General Practice.

  22. I have been wondering whether we might end up with an EU in-out referendum on the same day as the GE vote, and whether this would be good / bad for the Cons, Lab, LDs, UKIP etc etc.

    On the one hand the EU issue would (probably) overwhelm other issues. On the other, it would mean DC having to encourage a yes or no vote…and potentially this would UK businesses etc asserting their view that membership is essential to UK prosperity. Thus, it seems to me an EU-membership referendum in May 2015 is very unlikely.

  23. Reggieside…i agree with your assessment. I think labour could beat the tories in the popular vote and end up with a slim majority.

    the betting on individual seats suggest that labour could be hitting 320 or so. the tories are definitely running out of time. Since the omnishambles budget of 2012, 34-35% seems to be a ceiling for them.

    Before March 2012, the blues were looking in decent shape.

  24. What would be the effect on the economy if the outcome of the 2015 election is a EU Referendum in 2017?
    The endless debate on here about whether growth is 0.X or 0.Y% glosses over the fact that the UK’s recovery, whilst boosted by rising investment, is mainly dependent on household expenditure & rising house prices & hence is vulnerable to the coming rise in interest rates & to an international context of weak Euro & even possibly US growth.

    Add to this the immense uncertainty caused by a 2017 Ref, & the consequent fall in business investment, & one would have all the necessary ingredients for a post-election “correction”.
    For years I have endured a fall in the real value of my cash savings. If I really thought we were going to leave the EU then I would start to sell off my stock-market investments & so would everyone else!
    I am of two minds about whether we should stay in the EU but I fear that in a rough ride lies ahead in the short term.
    Whether these matters will have any effect on VI in the run-up to the election, or whether a post-election atmosphere of economic uncertainty would make a Euro exit more or less likely, are other questions altogether.

  25. Anthony WEBB

    “Survation should be ashamed to call themselves a polling firm. It seems to be more a UKIP tool. There isn’t a chance UKIP are remotely that popular, I wonder how valid their data and reading of it is?”

    How do the figures compare to the actual votes gained by UKIP candidates at the very recent elections?

    Or, did you mean that Survation’s UKIP figures were too low?

  26. NEWHOUSET agreed.

    There is a methodological bias against Ukip in YouGov’s figures by only prompting for three parties and thus distorting those figures upwards at the expense of other contenders such as The Greens and Ukip.

    If Survation are a Ukip tool someone ought to tell the Daily Mail because they run a constant barrage of anti-Ukip stories.

    We all look at the polls through the prism of our own desires. I can reluctantly grant that I do so. [Snip]

  27. How do the figures compare to the actual votes gained by UKIP candidates at the very recent elections?

    -5% Higher than at the locals which I suppose is the nearest comparison to a GE ,of course the local figure ,in case you didn’t notice what with the Media’s obsession with the UKIP “surge”, was down 5% for UKIP from the previous years locals

    Survation was predicting UKIP at 16% for a GE in May 2013 there has been no actual voting evidence to suggest that this level of support has risen.

    I have excluded the Euros as they are principally a One issue protest vote and don’t reflect the outcomes of GE’s with any accuracy at all.

  28. ‘I think the polls are static because everyone is watching the World Cup…’

    Oh no they are not!

  29. I don’t think a referendum will be the death of ukip, just look at Scotland are the snp now going to go away?

  30. Probably a question no pollster would ask, but I’d be interested to know how people (particularly Labour supporters and members) compare young people going to fight in Syria today with those who joined the International and went to fight in Spain in the thirties.

    Would it be the same, young people ready to fight for what they believed in against a dictatorship or Franco was bad but Jihad is worse!

    Maybe ISIS, need a good PR firm who would portray this as a latter day fight for freedom against Assad’s fascist regime.

    Peter.

  31. “No -I had Columbia as underdogs”

    I too hope that they win on Friday. And furthermore, I hope that football success will lead to more people being able to spell ‘Colombia’ correctly!

  32. The ukip 22% does look high but people must be saying they’ll vote that way and many are fed up with the other 3 parties. But getting 26% in the Euros is likely to fall to around 16% at a GE.

    A lot can change in 10 months, so the final ukip, liblabcon and greens,snp et all is very unclear.

  33. @MIKE N: “I have been wondering whether we might end up with an EU in-out referendum on the same day as the GE vote”

    Can’t see how there could be when Cameron doesn’t have a majority.

  34. Anyway, looks like the NHS is becoming an issue; if so it’ll overshadow any concerns about the EU.

  35. @Allan Christie,

    There’s a bit of a logic gap in your assessment re: the reasons for Jihadis travelling abroad to fight.

    You think it’s because we intervene in middle-eastern countries?

    Well we intervened in Iraq and Afghanistan, resulting in a flow of Sunni Jihadis travelling there to fight.

    We didn’t intervene in Syria, resulting in a flow of Sunni Jihadis travelling there to fight.

    Could it possibly be that radical Sunni Islamists want to go and fight Shias and Kaffirs wherever they can, as they have done for hundreds of years, and what we do or don’t do won’t make very much difference at all?

    A little less White Guilt might be in order I think.

  36. @Peter Cairns

    “Probably a question no pollster would ask, but I’d be interested to know how people (particularly Labour supporters and members) compare young people going to fight in Syria today with those who joined the International and went to fight in Spain in the thirties.”

    I think it depends who or what you’re fighting for. There were some Young British people who went out to fight fir Franco in the 30s. Just because they went doesn’t mean they should be automatically supported. It’s the cause that matters not just the fact of going.

  37. Mike N,

    I would think having referenda on the same day as GEs would mess with turnout too much for the parties or the Electoral Commission to allow it. It would give UKIP and Lib Dem voters a bigger reason to show up.

  38. Peter,

    I don’t think it’s the fighting that makes the difference. I support people going to fight where necessary for things I believe in, not just anything they believe in. I oppose fascism so would have supported the International Brigades, but awful as Assad is I don’t support jihad to bring him down.

    Norbold has beaten me to this post.

  39. Does anyone know how many seats. The Greens will contest in 2015?

  40. @MikeN and RogerH,

    I mulled over the question of a EU referendum on GE day in my head a couple of days ago. It couldn’t happen, of course, because Labour and the LDs wouldn’t support it through parliament. And of course the Tories wouldn’t want it because it would artificially inflate the UKIP vote, probably causing a massive loss of Tory seats in the process.

    But it did get me thinking about what an amusing prospect it would be to see an incoming Ed Miliband, elected with a 100 seat majority on 35% of the vote, facing a legally binding referendum decision to withdraw from the EU!

  41. Mr N

    “Norbold has beaten me to this post.”

    Nice to know we agree though. :)

  42. on mail story,doctors being struck off for failing to detect cancer,i agree,maybe the editor of the daily mail could be sacked if one of his journalists gets the facts in a story wrong also
    the wests concern for human rights in assads Syria is a joke.their silence on human rights in Saudi Arabia,bahrain etc is deafening

  43. @Hoof hearted

    Does anyone know how many seats. The Greens will contest in 2015?

    Very briefly no.

    I don’t think this will be known until the GE. I suspect the answer is more than last time, with a few more deposits retained.

  44. “…only 9% thought it was a very serious error.”

    I would think 9% of your own voters thinking it ‘very serious’ was significant.

  45. RogerH,

    I think you can find 9% of any party’s supporters who believe things which are at odds with that party’s philosophy. Tories in favour of massive public ownership, Labour voters who support banning unions, Lib Dems who oppose same sex marriage. You even get a few per cent of UKIP voters who would vote to stay in the EU.

  46. RogerH,

    “I would think 9% of your own voters thinking it ‘very serious’ was significant.”

    Unless, as Anthony might point out, it was the 9% who already hated Cameron but voted Tory anyway!

    Peter.

    On Spain v Syria ( surely Spain could win that one!) I wasn’t advocating for either Principle or Pragmatism, I was just interested in how the public would perceive it.

    I think Jihad has become one of those words, like “Liberal” in the states, that probably distorts the question.

    I wonder what the difference would be if you asked these two Questions;

    “Do you think it is right for British citizens to fight abroad against Dictatorships”
    “Do you think it is right for British citizens to fight abroad for Jihad”

    I fully suspect a difference but I am not sure how much.

    Peter.

  47. @Peter

    ‘“Do you think it is right for British citizens to fight abroad against Dictatorships”
    “Do you think it is right for British citizens to fight abroad for Jihad”’

    There is a big difference. Like, Mr N, I would support the fight against a brutal dictatorship but not if what would replace will be just as bad or maybe even worse. To put it in basic terms, for me, if those fighting against oppression were socialists fighting for a socialist society I would support them; if they were jihadists fighting to establish and Islamic caliphate I certainly would not support them The who and the cause is all-important.

    So the answer to your second question is “no”; the answer to your first question is, “it depends…”

  48. an not and!!!

  49. @Peter,

    I think the clue is probably in your questions.

    Most of the Jihadis in Syria would carry on fighting even if Dictatorship ended and was replaced by a tolerant, liberal and democratic government with widespread support amongst Alawites, Christians and moderate Sunnis.

    There are four parallel, and only slightly overlapping, struggles going on in the middle-east. One is between Shia and Sunni, one is between Islam generally and Judeo-Christian/Western beliefs, the third is between democracy and despotism and the fourth is a range of “normal” ethnic and tribal conflicts.

    This web of confusion throws up strange and interesting bedfellows. Pro-American Kurdish Marxist Nationalists. Iranian/American cooperation against ISIS. American support for anti-Assad rebels who are allied with ISIS. Russian/American common interest in supporting the Iraqi government. Western despair at finding anyone they can support in Egypt. Libyans squabbling over oil wealth. Tacit Western backing of a dictator in Algeria, but support for the revolution in Tunisia. Saudis allied to the US against the Russians but doing their level best to frustrate democracy and religious freedom wherever they can.

    King Abdullah of Jordan trying to steer a path through the middle of it all, and Israel trying to keep their mouth shut in case they accidentally unite all of the Shia, Sunni, Christian, Democratic, Autocrat, pro-Western, ant-Western, pro-Russian and anti-Russian elements against them as just about the only mutually-agreed policy objective in the entire region.

  50. BRAMLEY.
    I was referring to the Opinion Poll being reported in The Mail.
    Naming and Shaming: not good, and does not work anyway.

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