This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, very much in line with the recent average. The average figures in YouGov’s daily polls so far this month are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.


378 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 7, UKIP 14”

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  1. @Peter Cairns – Yes, the Conservative Party have long had a pragmatic, realpolitik approach to ethics in international affairs. That is a good insight – thanks for the support.

  2. I suspect that the musings by some on here regarding the downgrading of the nation state are a bit wide of the mark. In general, global terms, the opposite appears to be more prevalent, with the last couple of decades suggesting large, centralised or federated systems are less likely to survive in the long if they overpower what their citizens perceive to be the more desirable national unit.

    We’ve seen this most dramatically within the Soviet block, but also elsewhere in eastern Europe, Africa, and increasing western Europe. It’s arguable that in the EU federalists are actually now swimming against the tide, as the days of large aggregated single state structures are in decline, as smaller geographical units with more direct democratic control become more popular.

    Historically, aggregation into large federal units seemed to occur in response to specific problems. The USA was formed by 13 widely spread colonies, facing significant threats both internally and externally. It made sound strategic sense to amalgamate into a single whole, from which developed a couple of centuries of history to weld together a new national identity.

    In Europe, it’s difficult to see any outstanding reason, other than making business a bit easier, why there should be ‘ever closer union’. This was, fundamentally, a deception played on the UK public, less by deceit, but more by hiding in plain view. The expression has always been in the treaties, but everyone assumed it was just words – in most of the EU as well.

    We are at a fascinating point in terms of the organisation of the EU. It feels very like that period when you’ve been going out with someone for a good few months, and you reached the point when it either starts becoming a properly serious relationship, or you decide to walk away after having has some fun. The option of trundling along in the same semi serious way indefinitely just doesn’t seem to work.

    Like Scotland, the UK could readily disengage from the EU and live happily enough. There would be consequences (notably in Scotland, of course, but economically also) but there would also be possible benefits.

    I’m still holding out for reform, however. Cameron, and the Tories in general, simply aren’t the best way to deliver this though – they are far too embroiled in their own internal political games to actually look after the national interest, as we see today. Cameron is covering his own back – not constructing a strategic platform for future UK governments.

    I don’t believe ‘ever closer union’ is in the blood of most Europeans either. They may say it is, but the Germans don’t want a proper single currency, the French will go to the barricades for the CAP, the Greeks want someone else to pay for it, etc etc. The EU is a bit like the local council planning department – nobody really wants it until their neighbour builds an extension. Everyone’s national interest comes first. There is no real prospect of full political union.

    I suspect in another 40 years the UK will still be arguing about whether we should be in the EU, but then again, maybe we really are coming to the crunch time. Once the generations that remember the war pass away, the real emotional tug of the EU becomes just a memory.

  3. @ R & D, John Pilgrim

    Would — titles-wise — [She’s] ” “Here, There and Everywhere” not naturally fit with “Nowhere Man”.

  4. ALEC

    @” There is no real prospect of full political union.”

    Well it depends what you mean by “full”.

    Scrapping sovereign Parliaments-yes, because voters would notice that.

    But giving more & more power to the EP, including politicising the Commission’s key appointments?
    Imposing Commission oversight of national Budgets & EZ wide fiscal rules?

    Political union by stealth-without a vote being cast.

    Without fiscal , or monetary sovereignty, where is national political sovereignty ?-even if you still have a Parliament full of MPs ?

  5. @ Alec
    “Once the generations that remember the war pass away, the real emotional tug of the EU becomes just a memory.”

    It’s not working like that.

    The generations that experienced the war — at least the adults — are mostly dead. The generations, like mine, brought up during or shortly after the war, & hence most influenced by it, are hostile to Europe; those 65+ are twice as likely as those under 30 to declare a VI to leave the EU.
    It is the young who, if anyone, are emotionally tugged or neutral toward Europe while the old — who will decide the issue — reject the project & are emotionally tugged to a never-never land.

  6. Alec

    I liked and agreed with most of your first six paragraphs. I do not agree with the seventh. I think Cameron is being clever as Robert said earlier, and has established a clear benchmark from which to negotiate from. I agree to some extent with your next paragraph and I think it is nationalism which will eventually destroy the EU, but I think there are plenty in the EU currently who do want a federal Europe. As to the last paragraph I very much doubt if the EU will still be in existence in 40 years time.

  7. “Business investment surged at its fastest rate for two years in the first quarter of the year, accounting for half of the economy’s growth, the Office for National Statistics said today.

    In an encouraging sign for economic rebalancing, the statistics agency said investment by firms jumped 5% in the first quarter, up from its previous estimate of a 2.7% expansion and the quickest pace seen since early 2012.”

    Indy.

  8. @RobbieAlive

    That implies, then, that the Eurosceptics’ time is limited – Britain has to leave the EU within 30 years or those who would win an “OUT” vote will have died off.

    That of course presumes nothing happens to turn younger people away from the EU.

  9. ROBBIEALIVE

    Agree with much of that except the never-never land bit. There is absolutely nothing wrong IMO in wanting to remain British, although some up in Scotland will disagree.

  10. “…and the quickest pace seen since early 2012.”

    ——–

    I was getting quite excited till that last bit…

  11. Populus Issues Tracker is out –

    World Cup – 20.2%
    Iraq – 18.6%
    The Forbidden Trial – 12.4%
    Luis Suarez – 7.5%
    Wimbledon – 1.4%
    Syria – 1.2%
    Juncker Debate – 0.8%
    NHS – 0.8%
    Sports – 0.7%
    Meriam Ibrahim – 0.7%

    Seems like we psephologists should be focusing on the Middle East and Press Regulation as possible vote-shifting topics, not the EU!

  12. Chris Green,

    By wary of petty point scoring; people notice the petty more than the point!

    Peter.

  13. @ Mr Nameless

    “Britain has to leave the EU within 30 years or those who would win an “OUT” vote will have died off. . . . presuming nothing happens to turn younger people away from the EU.”

    It could work out like that
    The young people I know think nothing of working/living abroad; some work for international firms which place them in Europe or US. Ok, like you, they are mostly college-educated.

    Manchester is full of young Euros — just not true when I moved here X years ago.

    Why would such people want closed borders?

  14. @Peter Cairns – I am genuinely interested in how much your nationalism is inspired by your vision of the “White North”. We’ve already seen that Scottish nationalism is about ethnicity rather than location, from the nationalist criticism of JK Rowling as being “not Scottish” because she is ethnically English, even though she is a long-term resident of Scotland. I wondered if you would share whether your nationalism is primarily oriented around ethnic whiteness or ethnic Scottishness?

  15. Being reported that Mr Juncker is trying to have the smoking ban at EU HQ lifted, who says he doesn’t want change. He’ll want all staff to have access to an FOC brandy for breakfast next!

  16. Chris Green,

    I don’t know who you think you will convince with this line.

    I stated that Ukippers moving North would be “Ironic”, clearly indicating that people who oppose what they see as uncontrolled immigration into their country moving to another would be.

    You seem to have chosen to wilfully distort that into a claim that I and the wider SNP support some kind of Celtic Aryan state, which of course is patent nonsense.

    I’ve been posting on her for close to a decade and my views, even if they aren’t always agreed with, are well known.

    Given that Scotland wants to increase net migration and maintain and open border, and people South of the border seem genuinely, though in my view overly, concerned about becoming foreigners in their own country the possibility that some,seeing their communities change in ways they didn’t like, might want to move to an area they felt more comfortable in isn’t unreasonable.

    After all in many parts of the US and to a lesser extent Europe we have seen white middle classes move from multi ethnic communities, so I don’t see why it couldn’t happen post Independence.

    I’d love people of all races and nationalities to move North because of what we have to offer, but I accept that some people might come for reasons I don’t like or share.

    Painting that reasonable proposition as something it’s not just makes you look silly!

    Peter.

  17. Immigration now No I issue in MORI’s Index.

    Not surprising given those ONS numbers.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3410/EconomistIpsos-MORI-June-2014-Issues-Index.aspx

    Concern on Economy drops to no.2, and is at a six year low.

  18. Colin,

    Not up here it isn’t. It’s still behind the economy, although surprisingly devolution and the constitution is up at 23%…. You’d think we were going to have a vote on it!

    Peter.

  19. @ MrNameless

    “Seems like we psephologists should be focusing on the Middle East and Press Regulation as possible vote-shifting topics, not the EU!”

    Or how we get a winning World Cup team by 2018. A pledge to win the World Cup that year or resign would probably pull in enough swing voters.

    I’m quite “impressed” that the public have clocked the Iraq goings on. I do feel this has been played down by the media or at least what I would call the “told you so” element of it. I know this is politics but if the people who supported it can’t admit they got it wrong either in going to war or in dealing with the aftermath I can’t see how we can formulate any sort of effective Middle East strategy.

  20. “Concern on Economy drops to no.2, and is at a six year low.”

    This great news and oany goes to show.

  21. Colin,

    That the Economy in aggregate is improving even taking the housing boost in to account and that investment is growing in the productive sector is undeniable imo.

    4 factors though continue to count against the Government imo for some key voters.

    First, the feeling that some upturn was inevitable eventually given the size of the fall hence little credit to the Government, although GOs better number suggest some might accrue in the coming months

    Second, the regional imbalance in the recovery.

    Third, real earnings growth still behind real inflation for typical workers (may change in final quarter)

    Finally, for me the biggest, many workers feel they are working with less security or harder than ever and in many cases getting insufficient hours.

    By the GE I expect some of these issues will look better for the Governing parties but the party that can capture the mood of uncertainty and sense of being undervalued and find some policies to ameliorate those feelings will improve their chances.

    Labour is doing well in part articulating sympathy but as yet they have not announced sufficient credible policies to make a difference.

  22. From the ONS

    UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.8% between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014

    output components of the 0.8%

    Production 0.1%
    Construction 0.1%
    Distribution and hotels 0.2%
    Business services and finance 0.3%
    Transport, and storage 0.1%

    input components of the 0.8%

    Household spending 0.5%
    Business investment 0.3%
    Inventories -0.3%
    Trade 0.3%

    as Colin says a better balanced quarter, although you can see how dependent the UK economy is on household spending.

  23. That MORI index seems to be giving some credence to the theory that if the economy gets too much better, too quickly people start to take it for granted and it becomes a less salient electoral issue (and thus possibly, paradoxically, hurts the Tories).

  24. Immigration is No 1 and the Economy No2!

    The way a fly hitting the windscreen draws your attention from the on coming bus!

    Peter.

  25. @JimJam

    I very much agree with your comments at 3.33, you put it very well.

    Lack of credit to the governemt
    Regional imbalances
    Falling living standards
    Job insecurity

    ‘…but the party that can capture the mood of uncertainty and sense of being undervalued and find some policies to ameliorate those feelings will improve their chances.”

    Very true, succinct and to the point

  26. A lot of people are ignoring the Lib Dem poll numbers on the basis that a lot of their seats are safe, a lot of their marginals will be lost, and that in those contests still up in the air, there will probably be a very weak correlation between national swing and which of those seats are held/lost.

    But for me the Lib Dem trend over the next four months will be a good indicator of the Tories’ chances of remaining the largest party. I’m quite specific on that timeframe, because beyond then the polls will start to be affected by the business end of the campaign.

    If the Lib Dems were to start averaging two or three points higher before the end of October, that would indicate to me that voters are giving the government credit because they feel better off than they have in a long time, which in turn would filter through to the Conservative vote.

    If on the other hand their poll ratings remain steady (it’s difficult to see what on earth could happen to turn off people who are still sure about voting Lib Dem at this point), it’s hard to see beyond a Labour majority.

  27. BFIELD

    @”You have been gleefully reporting snippets of good economic data for ages now, yet the VI has hardly changed in that time. Why do you think this is so?”

    Because I like doing it .

  28. JIM JAM thanks.

    I am incllined more to AW’s recent opinion that the competence vs empathy conundrum is Cons’ biggest sheet anchor.

    Looking at your 4 points :-

    The first strikes me as the opposite of what happened. I got the impression that people thought it would never happen-and when Cons started saying it had, a feeling of disbelief.

    Not sure about regional imbalances either. Of course I agree that London vs the rest is no contest. But in some regions-the Midlands for example, if you read local oppress reports, things are moving. Also does employment data really support your feeling?

    Third point-yes I agree-but I think it is moving now. …maybe too little, too late?-who knows?

    I’m not sure about your last one Jim Jam. Its a nice Labour stance, but I think the average UK worker recognises that job security as it used to be , went years ago. I just don’t think the need to “work hard” , or the absence of hours makes people think-Labour will make it less hard at work & give me more hours.

    Agree with your lat para.

    Cons need to find Empathy.

    Lab need to find Economic Competence.

  29. @Peter Cairns – It was you who chose to describe independent Scotland as “White North”!

  30. @Colin – “I think the average UK worker recognises that job security as it used to be , went years ago”

    Isn’t there a difference between recognising that a good thing has been lost, and believing that it can never come back?

  31. PETER CAIRNS

    @”Not up here it isn’t. It’s still behind the economy,”

    Well there’s a surprise.

    When / if you reach the population density of SE England, there might be some effects which would allow you to understand the trend MORI reveals.

  32. Just read some of Carney’s comments on Interst rates on the BBC Site.

    He was talking about the new normal not being the old normal…..I think we have appointed our own Donald Rumsfeld!

    Peter.

  33. CHRIS

    Clearly.

    But the question is was the “job security”people tend to mean, a universally good indicator of a vibrant modern economy?

    Clearly it depends what you mean by the term & how far back we are going.

  34. ‘Third point-yes I agree-but I think it is moving now. …maybe too little, too late?-who knows?’

    Is it?

    Pay including bonuses for employees in Great Britain for February to April 2014 was 0.7% higher than a year earlier, with pay excluding bonuses 0.9% higher.

    April CPI 1.8% RPi 2.5%

    Not Seasonally Adjusted Average Weekly Earnings – Growth Excluding bonuses.

    single month growth

    Jan 1.7% CPI 1.9%
    Feb 1.9% CPI 1.7%
    Mar 1.0% CPI 1.6%
    April 0.3% CPI 1.8%
    May ? ? CPI 1.5%

    Those figures suggest it is going the wrong way at the moment, after improving in Jan and Feb, maybe a blip, but it is odd. Shouldn’t be happening, but the ONS says it is.

  35. FV

    Well you seem to agree with me that it is moving :-)

    Yes-I was aware of those April numbers-they were discussed here . Some suggestion of an effect from the PY comparator.

    We shall see when more recent numbers emerge.

  36. April 2013 inflated due to being first month of 45% top rate.

  37. @Colin – I don’t think that is the question, because it assumes that a “vibrant modern economy” is what people want. In a democracy, the demos presumably has the right to decide that it is willing to trade some of the excess wealth of the elite for a higher level of security for the masses.

    Also, a “vibrant modern economy” could as easily be described as an “unstable unprecedented economy”. Similar ostensible meaning, but very different connotations.

  38. Another blow struck against Westminster on the road to Scottish freedom….

    SNOWBALL ARE CAKES!!!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-2805563

    Peter.

  39. @Peter Cairns – You needed a second 3 at the end of that URL.

    Surely that article shows that Scottish interests are respected under the current system?

  40. @Chris Green

    Scottish Nationalism is not about ethnicity, just because JK Rowling chose to make that slur doesn’t make it true. This is why Scots that do not live in Scotland do not have a vote and anyone living in Scotland does.

    That sort of accusation is common from the No campaign and from No supporters on Twitter but is a propaganda point with no basis in truth.

  41. @TOH Thanks

    @JACK “80% of people in the UK voted against UKIP.”

    I must have missed that election. In the one I partook in, you could only vote for a party, nowhere was there an option to vote against anything or anyone and I don’t recall Junker’s name on the paper either.

    You accuse me of lacking evidence and then go on to make wild assertions regarding the destruction of the British economy, job losses, tariffs and the loss of the car industry from Manchester. Now I’m not aware of a car industry in Manchester but I could be wrong. I would be more concerned if the major ones in Birmingham, Tyneside & Nuneaton were at risk but they are all scare stories and totally baseless in fact. I agree migration is a two way street, the problem is, most of them are coming the way of the UK. They are queuing up in Northern France. As an island we are full.
    Trade is also a 2 way street, which is why tariffs would be very unlikely.

    @PETER CAIRNS (SNP) “Yes they do, the net figure includes longevity, life expectancy, birth rate and immigration”.

    I beg to differ but the figures quoted are reported as likely to be higher, due to better healthcare, a reduced incidence of smoking and improving health & safety.

    I don’t disagree with you about controlling the excesses of some in the City of London but control, not wipe out. Who would pay for the NHS then and is anyone really so keen to give such a gift to the French?
    The UK should control the City of London not the EU. Likewise the French control their industries etc.

    You then said later on: “we have 30% of the UK land mass and less than 10% of the population. However, when you take Scotland out from the UK projections and account for the low population growth in Northern Ireland and Wales you get a population growth for England over the same period of close to 25%.”

    Says it all really. If only the weather in Scotland wasn’t so cold I’d be emigrating!

    @COLIN “The “problem” is that UK is not in the EZ.” I would have put it the other way round – the problem is that Europe is in the EZ. You are not really an advocate for the single currency…Are you?

    @NORBOLD “And your evidence for this is…?”
    As stated, the Times and they are quoting the Office for National Statistics. The UK passed 64 million last year, so the UK is now the second most populous in Europe after Germany. (And Germany is how much bigger than the UK?)

    @OHN B “Who doesn’t want new rail lines? They’re exactly what this country needs in order to get more people off the roads.”

    I agree wholeheartedly with you. Sadly many nimby’s, and half the Labour party (cos they see votes in it) don’t agree with us. People go where the jobs are and without HS2,3 & 4, & 5 they are always going to be in London, the South East and one or two major cities elsewhere.

    @MRNAMELESS “I must say I don’t get the congested roads thing. Maybe in central Sheffield at 5:30 on a Friday but that’s as much poor road layout as anything else.”

    You can’t travel around very much if you have no experience of the M25/M1/M5/M6 & the M62 to name just a few national car parks.

    Off for me fish & chip supper now.

  42. ALEC
    “…if they overpower what their citizens perceive to be the more desirable national unit.

    The problem of perception has a deeper dimension. Knowledge of country, including such knowledge as most of us claim of our political systems, who represents and what they do, and what are the limits to their power, are absorbed into a personal but also into institutional cognitive systems. Such cognition just does not exist for the EU, except as an entity to which we subscribe through our parliamentary representatives and Government. The latter has sufficiently not evolved into a system which informs and embraces us. We can’t control it through knowledge of and response to what it does. EU elections have not remotely achieved that purpose, and never can.

  43. @Colin

    “We shall see when more recent numbers emerge”

    Yes it doesn’t seem right for pay growth to be falling when unemployment is falling, it goes against classical economic theory.

    i expect a bounce back in May, but even a 1.5% on the month is still only equal to CPI, never mind RPI.

    Pay growth has been extremely weak for 6 years now, I just can’t see pay recovering enough in the next 10 months to catch up the lost years – Too little too late indeed.

  44. @Couper

    Don’t let CG get you wound up!

  45. @ FV
    “We shall see when more recent numbers emerge”

    This site is bogged down in an interminable debate re the minutiae of the month-to-month real-wage & other data!

    Real wages have declined since 2010, despite the recent & faltering recovery. The government appears un-bothered about this, depending, for success in 2015, on rising employment, scepticism about Labour’s record, & the fact that the majority is coming round to a belief in the government’s economic competence.
    Contrastingly, 80+% report that they expect, in roughly equal measures, that their finances will stagnate or worsen. This pessimism is greater among female & C2DE respondents which may explain why these two groups, esp. the latter, have shifted decisively away from the Tories — sufficient in itself to explain the decline in their poll rating since 2010.

    I’m out of the Game now but I fear we may be going down the US route — where, despite productivity increases, real wages have fallen for over 40 years!
    The mix that may create this: crushing of the public sector, high immigration, more labour-market deregulation, decline in unionization, more restrictive labour laws.

  46. May I say how much I like the comments here on UK Polling Report, very informative.

    However, may I inform you of a recent article by Robert Peston with the BBC News Website, or you can just google the article if you want to read it?

    The article makes the point that the question is not about whether there is more or less centralisation of powers in the UK. The question is about the euro. In order for the euro to work, there must be consolidation of fiscal and monetary powers.

    The article also says that it is in Britain’s economic interest that the euro does work.

    The point that I would make is that most EU countries are in the eurozone, and those which are not in the zone have undertaken to join when they meet the conditions for membership. The two exceptions are apparently Denmark and Britain, which have not undertaken to join the eurozone.

    In any case, it appears to me that the euro is more important than Britain’s membership of the EU, and that is what explains the attitude of our fellow EU members, including the attitude of countries who have in the past sided with us.

  47. re: my last comment, I forgot to give the title of Robert Peston’s article. It is “Juncker As Good And Bad For the UK”.

  48. @j.pilgrim

    there we disagrea
    i think the elections to the euparliament (at least now that it is gaining power) will leed to a feeling of being part of the eu (like the elections to national parliaments)
    only time and polls will tell us who is more right

  49. CHRIS GREEN

    @” I don’t think that is the question, because it assumes that a “vibrant modern economy” is what people want. ”

    The words in italics were my choice of description for a type of economy I had in mind , when you suggested that “job security” is a “good thing”.

    Of course, the phrase would have no meaning to people in general-without some definitions of what we both mean by “job security” , “good thing” & “vibrant economy”.

  50. ROBERT

    No-most definitely not !!

    I pray thanks to Gordon Brown every night :-)

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