This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, very much in line with the recent average. The average figures in YouGov’s daily polls so far this month are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.


378 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 7, UKIP 14”

1 2 3 4 5 8
  1. DAVE

    Dog’s Breakfast sums up the whole EU edifice

    Democracy means want it to mean.

  2. TOH

    We now await the post Junker play-from twqo players-Merkel & Cameron.

  3. @Peter Crawford
    “you failed to get your way on juncker, so how on earth do you think you’ll be able to renegotiate the treaties to win key powers?”… it seems a difficult question to answer.”
    As the EU probably needs us an our money more than we need them. Whatever the BBC’s personal opinion is.

  4. Democracy means what they want it to mean.

  5. @TOH
    “Sundays YouGov will be interesting”

    Possibly, or more likely dead boring.

    FWIW I’d like to see the UK as a major part of a democratic, corruption free EU. Federal is a flexible term which can mean independent entities with certain common aims and policies (EG the Federation of Small Business) or a country like Germany which (as I understand it) is really one country with certain powers devolved to the states.

    I’d personally be in favour of ‘ever closer integration’ but only if it is accompanied by ever stronger democratic control, something that the UK stance de facto undermines.

  6. My guess is that the short term reaction to Cameron’s predicament with the EU will be much as on this site,

    Those who like the EU and like Cameron will hope that he has laid down a marker, showed that he cannot be pushed around and will be in a stronger position when it comes to negotiation.

    Those who like the EU and don’t like Cameron will be horrified, think that has publicly shown how uncommunity minded we are and also how weak, made a personal enemy of the man who will be key in any negotiation, and generally undermined whatever negotiating position we had,

    Those who don;t like the EU and don;t like Cameron will think he has demonstrated just how untenable his putative position on the EU is.

    Those who don’t like the EU and do like CAmeron will see him as having made a principled stand and hope that it enables him to see the light and turn his face against Europe,

    Personally I am inclined to believe the BBC who say that he thought he could win. I am quite ready to believe that he doesn;t think Junker is the man for the job, and I suspect that he thought he could gain a bit politically by being more strident than the other European leaders. I hope that Colin is not right in hinting that he has been trying to back himself into a corner so that he can change his stance on the EU. That would make me lose all respect for him; whereas I actually think he has simply made a mistake which will not cost him much in the short but might cost a bit more in the longer one,

  7. It’s funny, we want more democracy in the EU, but we unhappy the directly elected members of the EU parliament want to elect the head of the commission.

    There is more democratic accountability than for the Council of Ministers

  8. Good Evening All.
    I think it is part of the evolution of European Union Politics into a Political Union, a decline of the National State concept, with the EU Parliament becoming more powerful.

    There is not much the UK can do to stop this process.

  9. Farage is keeping his own counsel for the time being, but Gary Gibbon is reporting that Cameron is currently the toast of the out camp within his own party. Defeat over Juncker “will crystallise everything” according to them, setting the trajectory towards an exit. I guess they would see it as a step closer towards either a full accomodation with Ukip, a neutralisation of the threat, or a free hand to negotiate something in between.

    Gibbon has this to say on his blog: ” …quite what he will say post-defeat is giving many old Brussels hands the heeby-jeebies. Downing Street is pointedly not killing speculation that the prime minister might say he could yet be an “outer” himself if the EU doesn’t budge much in a future renegotiation.”

  10. Reposted to differentiate my comments…

    Farage is keeping his own counsel for the time being, but Gary Gibbon is reporting that Cameron is currently the toast of the out camp within his own party. Defeat over Juncker “will crystallise everything” according to them, setting the trajectory towards an exit.

    I guess they would see it as a step closer towards either a full accomodation with Ukip, a neutralisation of the threat, or a free hand to negotiate something in between.

    Gibbon has this to say on his blog: ” …quite what he will say post-defeat is giving many old Brussels hands the heeby-jeebies. Downing Street is pointedly not killing speculation that the prime minister might say he could yet be an “outer” himself if the EU doesn’t budge much in a future renegotiation.”

    Report comment

  11. Looking back, the last time Cameron stood in isolation in Europe he got a good poll bounce. It put the Tories ahead in some polls for around a month.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/12/11/cameron-s-eu-veto-wipes-out-labour-poll-lead

    My guess is he is trying to repeat history, and hoping it wins back some of those UKIP folk.

    So I agree with TOH, it will be interesting to see if it does move polls.

  12. I am pro-EU and not a Tory but feel that the results throughout the EU show that in most countries the domestic agenda determined votes (In the UK that included a borrowed vote to an ant-EU party).

    I doubt very much that many people voting for a PPP Euro Party had in mind that the were also electing Junker.

    I suppose the argument is a proxy for the collection of Nation states v federalism debate and the whether the European parliament should have more power than the Governments of the member states.

  13. @Peter Cairns (SNP)
    I rather expected that response from someone.
    1. The UK ‘system’ has grown over centuries. That doesn’t make it ideal.
    2. The EU system is enshrined in Lisbon Article 17.7 It should at least be clear and not have an obvious potential for deadlock.
    3. Those voting for a political party to form a government in UK are (I hope) well aware that the leader of one of the parties will become Prime Minister and that he/she will be replaced by another without an election in the event of death, illness or resignation. I wonder how many voters in the EU elections across Europe were aware that their vote for a party would be taken to imply democratic support for an individual for President. That is certainly not clear in the wording of Lisbon 17.7 – which is what the Heads of State signed. Admittedly the EU appears to be moving towards the (more democratic) approach of the British (and Scottish) parliamentary democracies, though without the inbuilt checks and balances that allow for the removal of Prime Ministers, but an average turnout in the EU elections of about 43% does not support claims that the president or even the largest party has a good popular mandate.
    {3A – I would argue that the present general backing of the heads of state for Juncker is in fact a backing for increasing federalisation, with the EU Parliamentarians using the vague wording of Article 17.7 as an opportunity for abrogating to themselves powers that the Treaty does not actually give them, while the heads of state are colluding with this to advance a federal arrangement which calls upon them to give up national powers – something they (except Cameron perhaps pressured by UK politics) seem to support anyway.
    4. The posts are not comparable. The PM is primus inter pares in the cabinet.
    From Wiki “The President of the European Commission is the head of the European Commission ? the executive branch of the European Union (EU) ? the most powerful officeholder in the EU. The President is responsible for allocating portfolios to members of the Commission and can reshuffle or dismiss them if needed. They determine the Commission’s policy agenda and all the legislative proposals it produces (the Commission is the only body that can propose EU laws). The President, unlike a normal head of government, does not form foreign policy, command troops or raise taxes as these are largely outside the remit of the EU.” {at present, though not under plans for further federation} . I am not wholly convinced that “PM is a position with far more power than head of the commission.” and suggest that is looked at again at the end of Juncker’s term of office.
    5. The use of the title President invltes comparison with national presidents (not Prime Ministers) who are usually the winners of democratic elections featuring more than one candidate.

    As for “Alex Salmond for First Minister” that has at least the merit of clarity, but if I had a vote in Scotland I would have voted NO to that if I had the chance. He is in fact nominated by the Scottish Parliament before being officially appointed by the monarch. If I vote for SNP policies, and SNP wins the election, I get Salmond as First Minister, do I not? Or do I vote for SNP to get Salmond, just as I vote Tory if I want Cameron, and get him even if I would rather have another. This difficulty is overcome by nations which have both Prime Minister and President.

    Looking back a bit, Nigel Farage’s response to Barroso’s claim that he ‘had been elected democratically by this [EU] Parliament’ was that no other candidate was on offer.

  14. @CL1945

    I agree. The single nation state has been in decline for some time – note the recent military limitations on US and Russian hard power.

    Harking back to some Utopian nation state model as if it is the guardian of democracy does not in any event reflect today’s world. Ordinary people are as detached from Westminster as they are from Washington, Moscow or Brussels.

  15. To be fair, literally everything, from Abu Qatada being cleared in Jordan to Luis Suarez being banned for biting, is taken as a signal by the Europhobic True Believers that we will leave the EU.

  16. @Dave

    The EU President simply does not have the power you suggest.

    Most of the power over key decisions still rests with the Council sometimes together with the European Parliament. The EP also has a much larger say than it used to over Commission proposals. Therefore even within areas of exclusive Community competence (common commercial policy, say) the EP will revise and amend Commission proposals.

    As for use of the term “President”, it means more in an UK context than overseas. In Spain the PM is called the President of the Government. Football chairmen are called Presidents on the Club. Juncker will be President of the Commission.

  17. RAF,

    I agree with what you’ve said, this whole thing is like Alex Salmond trying to block Cameron’s choice for head of the UK Civil Service.

    Peter.

  18. @Jim Jam

    Juncker’s candidacy was approved by delegates from all EPP member parties at a Dublin congress (6-7 March 2014).

    It is now five years since the Conservatives had any imput into decision making within the EPP… what’s more the admission of Alternative für Deutschland is taken as a sign that Cameron has now lost control of ECR, the grouping he founded.

    It seems that within sections of the Conservative party the “renegotiation” is increasingly being taken to mean the two year exit negotiation after a No vote.

  19. Here we go again. Angst time about the EU; an issue still way down the list of priorities for most voters. Surefire way of getting right-wingers into a lather, which is an irony considering that the early criticism of the Common Market came from the left who labelled it a capitalists club! The right in British politics, who obsess daily about it, see the EU as a pseudo-socialist Trojan Horse, smuggling in a range of leftist socialist and interventionist policies. Human rights entitlements, employee protections at work, environmental measures, taxes, economic migrants rights; a whole list of things that would appear on any centre right British politician’s hate list. Add to this the effrontery of it all being devised and “foisted undemocratically” on to us by a bunch of foreigners, and you have Chapters 1 and 2 of The Little Englanders Cook Book.

    Bleedin, lefty foreigners interfering in dear old blighty. All this puffed up nonsense about the dangers of Juncker, who looks to me like a fairly inoffensive and ineffectual conservative politician who is about to begin a titular, bureaucratic non-event of a job, is really argument by proxy. It’s all about UK domestic politics and Cameron’s vulnerability. Puffed up nonsense really, but it allows all the right-wingers to pile into their favourite punchbag.

    Overseas pantomime villains always handy when it’s all going pear-shaped at home. :-)

  20. BB,

    I get all what you say – it is just that I whilst EPP parties agreed on Junker I doubt voters supporting those parties in Greece, Italy etc gave any thought to this.

  21. I hope yer not going to stop writing about ole Juncker: its riveting stuff.

    That is to say I feel as though I have been riveted through me ********s.

    Its not a nice sensation.

  22. Spot on CB.

  23. @Jim Jam

    You make a fair point of course. I had to watch the Presidential Debates (from May 15th) online… I think 20 national TV stations broadcast live (in 13 languages), but I have no idea of the viewing figures.

    Martin Shultz came over well imo… with an excellent command of English, I was rather disappointed that he hadn’t been invited over to make the case for Labour in the EU elections.

  24. I can quite confidently predict that unless anything unexpected happens the Juncker business will have absolutely no effect on the polls.

    The appointment is a bubble issue that mainstream political journalists, let alone the general public, showed absolutely no interest in until Cameron decided to oppose Juncker. The TV debates were hidden away on BBC Parliament and barely reported in the papers. Even though it has now been covered quite extensively I expect it is going right over people’s heads.

    Essentially I think Cam had no option but to try. Else you can imagine UKIP saying that ‘he had the opportunity to vote on the Commission President but voted for the status quo’ etc. Early on there did seem a fair chance of winning but the social democratic group’s decision to support Juncker on the basis that he was the winning spitzkandidat, as well as Merkel being bound by her party do seem to have scuppered that.

    UKIP may trot out the line that this shows change can’t be achieved but actually Cameron’s stand here could help him get something. The EU tends to work through compromise and, having failed on this, it is likely that people he likes more might get the other key positions. He has also signalled that Britain is serious about reform and won some support for the principle. It seems unlikely that the other members will allow Britain to find itself in a position of wanting to leave so I think some concessions are likely.

  25. tonight’s YG: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, Green???

  26. @John B

    “You may inform Mrs. Trellis of North Wales that the bomber will be in there, whether DC spits fire or not!”

    Ha, ha – clever!

    Tottenham Court Road.

  27. Well Others are on 8% so we may assume Greens are 4-5% if the Nats are 3-4%. Another five point Labour lead is good news for them, and 38 is the highest for a while. Might we see another 40 in the next couple of months?

    The less said about the LDs, the better…

  28. EU officials have asked what post in the European Commission Britain might want, what its top priorities for the coming years are and how it thinks the biggest EU jobs should be assigned, but Cameron has avoided the discussion.

    “Cameron doesn’t seem to have a strategy for what happens after Friday,” said a European diplomat briefed on Van Rompuy’s meeting. “The talks were not constructive at all. Cameron showed no way out, which makes it very difficult.”

    h
    ttp://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/eu-diplomats-struggle-understand-camerons-strategy-juncker-303045

  29. Good Evening Mr NAMELESS.
    I agree with you, Mr N.

  30. @AU

    Parson’s Green

    In general
    Interesting discussion on EU. The view that Juncker will have no impact on polls may be valid in the short term, but in the long term the Tories’ European policies will have a (continuing) major impact on political life here.

    I notice that no-one is picking up on Murdo Fraser’s musing on the future of the UK. Talks a remarkable amount of sense, that man, and if he were not a Tory I might even vote for him……
    SNP response true, of course: Fraser’s ideas are nowhere near being adopted by any party likely to form a majority after the next Westminster GE…..

    Have to be up early tomorrow, so good night all!

  31. Ben Foley,

    What share did the EEP get?

    Peter.

  32. my feeling re DC/EU is that he is ambivalent enough on policies to decide to turn to towards saying directly that he WILL campaign for a no vote in a referendum unless…….

    And there lies the rub: at that point he can’t be vague. He will have to spell out in specific terms what he wants to see changed and then convince a hell of a lot of people that he has picked the right things – on both sides of the argument.

    It will be too much for Ken Clarke and others and not enough for Nigel Farage and others and leave the rest fairly baffled.

  33. Lab edging up.

    Interesting speculation that Cameron might secretly be manouvering for and out position before 2015. Really? I know the man has committed numerous policy about turns in the past (no top down reorganisation, greenest government ever, cast iron pledges, matching Labour’s spending, etc etc) but this would be an epic U turn.

    Watch Tories business donors peel away if he tried, and expect Lab to win big in 2015 if the PM really did do this.

    It won’t happen. Cameron just wants to look hard, but hasn’t thought through the logical end point of this. As ever.

  34. @Rosieanddaisie

    I don’t think too much would be a problem unless he opted to leave. Pretty much my take on public views of Europe is that people want us to stay in whilst having as much power as possible that is compatible with that left to Westminster.

    LAB and even the LD support the reform principle now, and I doubt they would win much support by criticising Cameron for going too far with reform.

  35. I think one problem for Cameron is that the more discussion there is about the EU the better it is in the polls for UKIP. (The same seems to be true about immigration).
    So, although I think it would logically be better for Cameron to get what he wants from the EU – in the present situation or in future negotiations – the impact on the polls will probably be exactly the same whatever he gets (or fails to get). That is: he will have a short boost for seeming ‘tough’ but UKIP will gain more in the long run because any narrative regarding the EU helps them more than it does any other party.
    I think Cameron knows that and that’s why the referendum was offered, to shelve the issue until after 2015 – but it’s not working! ‘Events, dear boy, events.’

  36. Rather than just the general sloganeering about “to much Interference from Brussels”, could people perhaps go one better than the Tories and give us there top three EU powers they want repatriated and why.

    It might also help if people said what the impact would be and what if anything you would replace it with.

    This has come up at some “Yes” meetings and whenever those complaining about the EU are asked for a specific not one has given an answer!

    Peter.

  37. UK population up by 400k last year… The tabloids are going to love that!
    Scotland’s population went up by about 15k, London 100k!

    Peter.

  38. PC

    That is what I have been saying. The nub of the prob for DC is that within a few months he will have to explain what changes he wants, and why, we will get EU and other responses and it won’t be enough for the UKIP tendency but will worry the, probably majority, section who don’t wish to leave the EU.

    I think he’s stuffed because the intellectual logic just isn’t there – leaving aside the practicalities.

  39. It is worth pointing out I think that Cameron has done quite well at shutting up his Eurosceptic backbenchers. The looming prospect of GE15 and the economy may be bigger factors than Europe in that, but I don’t think it is going too far to say that the Tory Party is actually more united than at any time since the mid-80s…

    A few may still want out, and a good 20 or so will rebel in the HoC whenever something vaguely pro-European is put, but by and large they are quite supportive at the moment. There has been no repeat of the ‘alternative Queen’s Speech’ amendment and even the likes of Peter Bone have been throwing up friendly fire at question time lately.

  40. Changing the subject I’m doing a lovely arrangement of the other Paul’s “Here, There and Everywhere” for 7-string guitar and voice.

    One of his best songs I think.

    I want to pair it with “For No One” as I think both were written for Jane Asher and I am working on a programme which I am calling Songs of Love and Loss.

    This is very cunning as, apart from “My Ole Man’s a Dustman” and “Ernie, The Fastest Milkman in the West” ALL songs are about love.

    The lute songs of Dowland are wonderful in their over-the-top grief and aldo very lovely to play. The accompaniments are tricky enough but often the voice is moving rhythmically in very different ways which is both challenging and rewarding ** when one gets it right

    **Though not financially of course.

  41. Just come across the scariest stat I’ve ever heard.

    Bloke on R4 says Tesco have a property portfolio of 42 million square miles.

    But the entire land surface area of the planet is only 50- odd million sq miles.

    Looks like Tesco shouldn’t worry too much about their falling share of food sales.

  42. 42m square miles ?!

    Think your chap may have misheard there Lefty.

    The Graun’s front page story for tomorrow says :

    The study of Land Registry records by the Guardian and aerial photography company Getmapping reveals Tesco’s British property portfolio covers 4.6m sq m

  43. “Polling company GfK said its monthly consumer confidence index (May 14) rose to +1 in June from zero in May, its highest since March 2005″*

    And

    “The survey suggested consumer spending will remain one of the biggest drivers of Britain’s swift economic recovery, as optimism about the economy over the next 12 months hit its highest level in at least 10 years.”*

    Hurrah!

    But

    “Consumers’ assessment of their personal financial situation over the next 12 months was the only component of GfK’s index to fall.”*

    The personal finance part of the report is the most important one for polling IMO

    my evidence

    “The average figures in YouGov’s daily polls so far this month are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%” *

    coalition parties 41% opposition 59%

    general election 2010 coalition 60% opposition 40%

    sources Reuters and AW

  44. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 26th June – Lab 38%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%,, Greens 4%, Nats 3% ; APP -24

    Greens stil holding on to plenty of those ex 2010 LD’s

    Lab seemed to be getting back the UKIP and Greens that left during the euro elctions – it varies a little from day to day, but the trend for these groups is towards Lab very slowly

    Cons seem stuck on 32/33% with Yougov

  45. @ MrNameless

    Lab definitely fine at the moment on Yougov but still need to see other polling companies showing the same type of thing. There does seem to have been a slight tickle up on Populus and Ashcroft but not enough polls from them yet to say there is a trend and the Ashcroft figures still seem quite variable.

    Still quite a few of the monthly polls showing Lab under 35% which I never expected to happen, so until those pick up I wouldn’t say Lab has a clear gap on the Tories. 40% for Lab seems like a pipedream now.

  46. CHARLES
    As far as I can see the EU has had four main aims which most member states would agree on, and which have been the subject of statutory and regulatory development and financing, with greater or lesser success:

    Development of wealth and economic power as the World’s biggest trading block
    Equalisation of poor regions and countries within the EU
    Creation of a Single market, including labour market, fair trade and working rights
    Common Foreign policy to stem Chinese and Russian expansionism, spread democracy and eradicate world poverty and oppression

    Most of these objective might have been achieved better through the Single Market mechanisms and a political alliance, similar to that of the Athenian League: one based on common intent rather than any political union.

    There are two problems which I see with the latter: it does not have a basis in democratic support in the separate countries; and it does not replace the eminent domain which the separate countries exercise on the basis of differing historic evolution and cultural integrity.
    (I include in the latter the historic and ongoing absorption of multiple migratory ethnic and language groups and the statutory basis which states have exercised to permit and control immigration.)

    By contrast with this historic development of nation states, the EU is, as Colin comments, a dog’s breakfast, or an expensive carbuncle.

  47. Shevi – imo 40% was always a pipe dream for Labour even when the poll rating rose above that after the omni-shambles.

    Below 35% at the GE would be a disappointment above 37% excellent.

    Preventing Con minority would be an OK result, most seats for Labour a good result.

  48. @floating voter

    Your name suggests you should be a useful weather vane. Which way are you floating at the moment? Or is it too early to say?

  49. Crossbat11

    “The right in British politics, who obsess daily about it, see the EU as a pseudo-socialist Trojan Horse, smuggling in a range of leftist socialist and interventionist policies. Human rights entitlements, employee protections at work, environmental measures, taxes, economic migrants rights; a whole list of things that would appear on any centre right British politician’s hate list. Add to this the effrontery of it all being devised and “foisted undemocratically” on to us by a bunch of foreigners, and you have Chapters 1 and 2 of The Little Englanders Cook Book.”

    States my view of EU beautifully and if that makes me a little Englander then I am very proud to be so.

  50. FLOATING VOTER,

    “Lab seemed to be getting back the UKIP and Greens that left during the euro elctions”

    I am not sure it ever really lost many in the first place!
    A lot of play was made of UKIP doing better than ever before in Labour areas, particularly by UKIP themselves, and their share did rise sharply often by about 15%.

    However when I looked at how vote share had changed since the last Euros I found that by and large UKIP went up by the same as the combined fall in the Tory, LibDem and BNP shares.

    I am sure there was a degree of churn but I would say that by and large Labours vote held while UKIP canaballised the fractured anti-Euro/establishment vote.

    Where is Statgeek when you need him!

    Peter.

1 2 3 4 5 8