This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, very much in line with the recent average. The average figures in YouGov’s daily polls so far this month are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.


378 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 7, UKIP 14”

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  1. Next few days will be interesting.

  2. AW
    I have tried again to bring a little balance and I really cannot see anything in my post which should trigger moderation. I would be grateful if you would have a look please.

  3. As usual we disagree, reading the papers this morning I do not see what you see. There seems to be some agreement that Cameron has suffered very little damage except for P Oborne in the Telegraph.
    On the European issue I think his stand against Juncker is far from pointless and I suspect that the public will agree with him, they like prime Ministers who stand up for British interests even if the argument is lost in the short term. I am sure he believes that his fighting the appointment to the bitter end will have a very negative effect on Juncker’s abiliuty to push the federalist agenda,
    All in all I suspect very little effect on Cameron’s rating or even some small gains.

  4. AW

    Many thanks for the explanation, I understand the point you make and will avoid the name in future.

  5. @NickP

    “Next few days will be interesting.”

    Indeed, although I expect no big shifts either way. What I think the events of the last few days may well have done, though, is postpone still further any semblance of a Tory recovery. Cameron’s personal approval ratings may be worth keeping an eye on, however.

    The clock ticks on.

  6. I agree that the coulson hoo hah will not have any big effect on VI by itself, neither will the junker bun fight.
    What might have an effect is the right wing press and/or camerons critics within the tory party using it as a stick to beat him with in the run up to conference season.

  7. @TOH

    “There seems to be some agreement [in the papers this morning] that Cameron has suffered very little damage”

    Really? Fancy that from our well-known impartial press.

  8. Although Cameron now knows that he is fighting to lose over the Juncker appointment and some erstwhile allies regard his stance as “silly” because they do not understand the domestic British political realities.

    Nevertheless, I do not believe it will do Cameron any harm to be seen in Britain as a minority of one fighting for the concept of Europe as an agreement between sovereign nation states rather than some journey to a United States of Europe.

    I profoundly disagree with where Cameron wants to take us – I think the British view of nation statehood is over within the Realpolitik of the modern world, especially in Europe. However, I am aware most fellow Britons do not agree with my view, and Cameron knows he can only go up in UK public estimation by metaphorically waving the Union Flag in a sea of European light blue, even if he doesn’t win this one.

  9. “Nevertheless, I do not believe it will do Cameron any harm to be seen in Britain as a minority of one fighting.”

    You don’t think him playing the BIG I AM then being left to play outside the group makes him look somewhat of a fool ?

    When it’s 26 v 1, the 1 that’s left on the outside is in a pretty isolated, lonely place & is in no way able to garner the agreement of others when it comes to making any changes in the establishment.

  10. Norbold

    “well-known impartial press.”

    Why should the press be impartial, that is the dangerous sort of thinking which is currently trying to reduce the freedom of the press IMO. Our existinp press seems to reflect moderate and immoderate right and left wings views. again IMO.

  11. @Bramley

    I think the EU establishment is making it pretty clear it doesn’t want any changes. That being sort of the point.

  12. BRAMLEY

    No is the simple answer, Tony Dean and I can agree on how we expect the voters to react, even though we have totally conflicting views on the future of Europe.

  13. I think the confidence of those who think DC has done well to oppose Junker to the bitter end is misplaced.

    To see the real impacts, one has to take a step back and look at the whole EU picture. DC has made a cast iron pledge for an In/Out referendum. He has also said he will demand reforms, which if he doesn’t get, will mean he will campaign for a No vote.

    We have a PM who currently believes the UK would be better off out of the EU than in, despite claiming to be a big fan of the UK’s membership of the EU. That is an enormous statement to contemplate, and shows how strategically, Tory policy on the EU is in a complete mess.

    The entire point of Cameron’s EU policy was nothing to do with the EU but everything to do with UKIP. The 2017 date set for the referendum was entirely selected to meet his tactical desire to bury this issue until after the GE. He promised a renegotiation, and for a while it appeared that there was some support in Berlin and elsewhere for certain changes that might mean Cameron could go into the referendum supporting a yes vote with some credible negotiating achievements.

    Instead, he chose to train all his diplomatic guns on Juncker, and missed. Does anyone seriously believe that Farage will stay silent on this? I rather think not.

    UKIP are absolutely delighted. They, and everyone else, can now point with some clear practical authority, to the simple truth that there is to be no substantive renegotiation of UK’s membership terms by 2017.

    If we still have a Tory PM after the next election, we are either going to witness a broken promise, or the sight of a PM who believes fervently in the value of the EU to the UK, campaigning for us to leave. Watch for how the Tory supporting business community starts to behave when that happens.

    In terms of domestic polling, I think the Juncker failure won’t be a positive, but equally I doubt it will have much impact. My suspicion is that it will provide assistance to UKIP, and help them retain some voters, which is in itself a potentially significant impact. I think however, that the biggest impact will come in 2016/2017. I suspect that thinking Tories outside the anti EU brigade will rather hope to lose in 2015, as the consequences of them winning could well be catastrophic for the party.

  14. The media in Britain have consistently failed to provide the voting public with a clear understanding of the importance of the Euro elections. This morning on the radio someone was interviewed (I think from Poland, but I wasn’t listening at the point the person was introduced) and specifically mentioned Juncker as being ‘the democratic choice’ of Europeans. This fundamental point was not picked up on by the interviewer, and yet it is a vital importance for seeing how many Europeans understand the situation.

    Cameron, in the view of what I understand to be the vast majority of Europeans, is behaving in a very anti-democratic way. He is saying, in effect “I lost the vote but I’m going to insist on having my own way in any event”.

    The problem for Milliband is that he has now committed to holding a referendum ‘whenever a proposal comes to transfer more powers’ to Europe. That day will be with us within the next two or three years – and what will Millband do then?

    Many Europeans are now saying that it is time for the UK to decide one way or another: either we’re in or we’re out. The ‘halfway house’ has now become untenable. My guess is that we’ll be outside the EU within the next four years, whichever government is in power.

  15. Today’s poll is heavily weighted so possibly an outlier. Too few Cons in the unweighted sample, and too many 48-59’s. Not sure what it means though- are Con actually higher or lower?

  16. ALEC
    “I think the confidence of those who think DC has done well to oppose Junker to the bitter end is misplaced.”

    As usual we disagree, as one who wants us to leave the EU I believe his moves will help either bring that about, or gain us a substantial renegotiation victory. Of course I’m hoping for the former.

  17. @ Bramley

    If Cameron’s support depended upon the view of the continental press I would agree with you – he would look very silly in their eyes. However, he relies upon the perspectives of the British press for the perceived view of the British public – and being a minority of one will do him no harm. It feeds into the British national-sub-conscious myth of “plucky little Britannia standing up to a hostile continent”.

    Indeed, I believe it is the British press over the last 30 to 40 years which has created such a different perspective amongst so many Britons over the workings of the EU compared to our continental fellow citizens of Europe, and I don;t mean the politicians, I mean the man in the street in Hamburg, Lille or Naples.

    Without our peculiar newspaper industry we would be happy members of the EU club – and there would be no desire for an IN/OUT referendum at all IMO.

  18. Th Junker issue is very similar to Maggie and Jacques Chirac we have had this play before and it didn’t end well.

  19. John B

    “My guess is that we’ll be outside the EU within the next four years, whichever government is in power.”

    I really hope your right about that.

  20. I think you mean Jacques Delors!

  21. “I think the EU establishment is making it pretty clear it doesn’t want any changes. That being sort of the point.”

    I think @Neil A has it about right here, in a neat nutshell. This is the central element of my last post. By selecting to pick this fight and be humiliated, very, very publicly, Cameron has reopened his entire EU flank to attack by UKIP.

    His ‘renegotiate and then vote’ referendum pledge was designed to neutralise this issue. At the time, I said it was misguided, as it would just encourage antis to ask where he stood on each of the issues and what Cameron would accept as his bottom line for switching from No to yes.

    It’s now even worse than that, as he has demonstrated that he can’t negotiate his way out of a paper bag, as his Polish Foreign Minister has observed.

  22. How could we forget ‘Up yours Delors’?

    Impact on polls miniscule same as NOTW issue.

  23. Alec
    “be humiliated, very, very publicly,”

    Sorry but I just cannot see that he has been humiliated at all. I think the voters of Europe will see one principled man standing up against the wheeling and dealing by the other politicians. Certainly I think that is how he will be seen in the UK.

    Personally I don’t worry about any negative effect on the Tory Party, after all it does not share many of my views. As long as we have a Government in power that is not of the left and believes in moderating the size of the state I will remain content.

  24. @TOH

    And I, of course, hope for the opposite! We’re agreed on the analysis, but not on the way forward.

    This may have an impact on the referendum. Should DC really end up being humiliated (and that is what looks most likely to me), then the threat that the UK will leave the EU, which the Yes people have been saying for months, becomes an even greater possibility. ‘Vote for Scottish Independence in order to stay in the EU!’ – that is now a real possibility. I’ve asked before on this site whether Scotland might be allowed a referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU – and if was slightly tongue in cheek a couple of months ago I have to say that the question now becomes a real one!

    Not that all Scots are happy with the EU, of course, and I can see arguments, particularly from the fishing community, for a pull out.

    And would the UK then join the European Free Trade Area? Would it be allowed to join, as it would be such a huge proportion of that organisation, having an economy bigger than all the other (present) members put together?

    And what would the US reaction be? We’re often told that the US wants the UK in the EU; what effect, if any, might a UK withdrawal from the EU have on NATO?

    There’s a lot more hanging on this meeting than simply whether the Kippers can be stalled a bit.

  25. Surely standard rules apply and almost no one will have their vote changed by any of these events.

  26. @TOH

    It’s not about ‘wheeling and dealing’ in Brussels. It’s about the fundamental direction of travel. The original vision, back in the 1950s, was for an ever closer integration of Europe. This was, from the start, seen as a step by step process, (Coal and Steel, Common Market, Common Currecny, Stronger Parliament etc.) and many people want the process to continue – not despite the economic problems but because of the them so that the eurozone can be whipped into shape rather than be at the mercy of local interests (e.g. Greece).

    The problem we have in the UK is that we were sold a pup – not by the then EEC which was always clear that it was heading towards being a EU, but by UK politicians and press who poured scorn on the vision (and still do!) and convinced themselves and many of us Brits that ‘common sense’ (i.e. UK interests in NOT having an EU) would prevail (Maggy’s handbagging etc.) ‘Yes Minister’ and ‘Yes Prime Minister’ sum it up perfectly in several episodes.

    Those UK establishment hopes were dashed when the ex-Eastern bloc countries entered and brought with them a renewed enthusiasm for ‘Europe’.

    In all this, the movement towards a strong Federal EU has been utterly open and honest and not the least bit ‘wheeler dealing’. The ‘wheeler dealing’ has all been in the fantasy world inhabited by the Little Englanders – and it looks very much as though that world is about to come crumbling down.

    IMO. But I may be very wrong about all this, of course…….

  27. TOH

    “Why should the press be impartial, that is the dangerous sort of thinking which is currently trying to reduce the freedom of the press…”

    Did I say it should be impartial? I was just commenting on the fact that you said “reading the papers this morning I do not see what you see. There seems to be some agreement that Cameron has suffered very little damage.”

    I was just giving a possible explanation for this…..

  28. The fact the press is not impartial is leading to its demise. There is little point in reading newspapers or even the TV news, which tends to follow the party political or MSM agenda.

    All the information is available on line and that is impartial, for example FOI requests are posted on line, academics post and in addition there is a wide range of analysis from differing points of view untainted by the biases Murdoch or Rothermere.

    The MSM is dying and it is their own fault. I doubt they are going to have as much influence as Pressman hopes folk are getting used to making up their own minds on the issues.

  29. @JOHN B

    Exactly there is more risk of being out of the EU staying with the UK than voting for independence. The Yes campaign can point that out.

  30. @TOH

    “I think the voters of Europe will see one principled man standing up against the wheeling and dealing by the other politicians”

    A principled man who threw away the opportunity to act on his principles by wheeling and dealing. Convinced he carried more weight than he did, he opted to play the man (Junker) rather than the ball (renegotiation and lessening of the EU’s power). Because of that he’s lost on the first, which he was never going to win, and so let the opportunity for the second slip away and is now reduced to throwing very public temper tantrums over this.

    Pretty sure most of Europe and the UK will just see a fool.

    “As long as we have a Government in power that is not of the left and believes in moderating the size of the state I will remain content.”

    Actually I’m kind of curious; if the New Statesman is to be believed then the Labour plan at the next election is to redistribute power back from the state to local councils. If this was the case would you consider voting for them (even though they are of the left)?

  31. Chris Green
    “Surely standard rules apply”

    You make it all sound like a game of ‘Mornington Crescent’ !

  32. Cameron knows that if Junker wins then he has no chance of winning votes back from ukip and he faces losing in 2015.

    It also makes an exit of the EU vote more likely, which I would be happy with.

    PS looks like that LD revival was a false dawn.

  33. Alec, I agree that Dc’s position re the EU is bizarre and can only get worse for him if he won the next election.

    Nobody can imagine that, IF he did so, it would be with a workable majority. He would therefore be under attack from all sides and hardly in a strong negotiating position given that what he “seems” to want is a small but successful renegotiation and then the UK vote to stay in and BINGO – he’s in the clear.

    Not going to happen and, worst of all, by trying to sound like all things to all people many of us really have no idea of his central political/philosophical aims and views.

    I’ve said before that, if we had one, he’d make a fairly good president. Or a king maybe: could that work?

  34. HH

    “It also makes an exit of the EU vote more likely”

    Why’s that then?

  35. Chatterclass – even if the weighting isn’t that sound-looking, the poll is clearly in line with other polls in the last few days so it can’t really be regarded as an outlier

  36. It is easy, obviously!, to lose sight of the bigger picture.

    Yes the Sun, Times, Telegraph are claiming now that the scandal was a fuss about nothing, the investigations an attack on press freedom – yeh, a waste of public money & police time etc,

    But I remember being utterly stunned 3 years ago when I received garbled texts while on a holiday, cut off from the news, that the “NOW had closed.” The NOW I asked myself — what the hell is that?
    I never dreamt that, in my lifetime, any of our tabloids (or their owners) would suffer major reversals or ever be held to account for their unscrupulous practices.

  37. Cameron’s position seems to be;

    “Eurosceptic Parties did better than ever in the Election so the Commission should have an anti Federalist head.”

    Everyone Else’s position is;

    “But they didn’t Win the Euro Election!”

    Dave’s counter to that is;

    “Ah but there was a strong swing towards them!”

    To which they reply;

    “But they didn’t Win the Euro Election!”

    On but wait says Dave;

    “They won in my Country!”

    To which they all in unison;

    “But they didn’t Win the Euro Election!”

    Listen says Dave;

    “I don’t want a Federalist and my Party doesn’t want one!”

    To which everyone shouts in his face;

    “But they didn’t Win the Euro Election!”

    How Cameron thinks this want make him look like a fool is beyond me!

    Peter.

  38. ANARCHISTS UNITE

    No, I am an economic libertarian who wants a smaller state. I could vote Labour though, if they changed policy significantly. They would have to promise to leave the EU, reduce the size of the State to no more than 35% of GDP and eliminate that most pernicious of taxes, inheritance tax.

  39. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “How Cameron thinks this want make him look like a fool is beyond me!

    Not quite sure what you mean but I certainly don’t think Cameron is being foolish for the reasons i have already given.

    Rosieanddaisie

    “Nobody can imagine that, IF he did so, it would be with a workable majority.”

    Sorry your making assumptions about people at large which are just not correct. I think the Tories would manage a small majority quite well and indeed I expect them to do so come 2015.

  40. @PETER

    Exactly. @JOHN B’s point about Euro-enthusiasm in the Eastern accession countries rather points up an irony in the anti-federalist strategy over decades: the whole point of our enthusiasm for enlargement was that sceptics thought it would make it impossible for the EU to integrate further because it’s too complicated with 27 nations.

    I agree with Chris Green’s Mornington Crescent view though. None of this will add up to a hill of beans in VI terms. There’s just an outside possibility that the latest concatenation of cockups will damage the ‘competence’ story but I very much doubt it.

  41. @Peter,

    So if the fascists had won the Euro elections then we should all just shut up and appoint a fascist, whether we like it or not?

    There is no rule that the winning “party” in the EU elections has to take the presidency.

    There is no shame in opposing something that everyone else agrees to. In fact, I’d say changing your vote to fall into line with the herd, and voting against your own beliefs, is more shameful and more foolish than the alternative.

  42. I think if anything will have had effect, it will have been two days of lead headlines being a Judge reprimanding Cameron for possibly prejudicing a court case. All the rest will just add to the mood music, but the narrative of “Easily flustered Cameron puts his foot in it again” could well have been set back in motion by the judicial reprimand.

  43. TOH,

    The only points you seem to be making are;

    “Cameron will slow the Eurobus by standing in front of it and letting it hit him, but he won’t be hurt by it!”

    And

    ” People will cheer when he gets hit by the EuroBus because it shows he’s standing up for Britain and isn’t scared of the bus,”

    Bizarre by even your standards!

    Peter.

  44. @TOH – if I may say so, your characterization of Cameron’s stand as being one ‘against the wheeling and dealing’ is quaintly parochial.

    As others have pointed out, in the rest of the EU they appear to have understood the fundamental principle of democracy – that the winner is the one with most seats when the votes are counted.

    It’s Cameron who is guilty of the wheeling and dealing – not Juncker or his supporters. He is the leader of the group that won the elections, which is why most people in the EU agree that he should be the nominee. To set your face against the electorate is the ultimate wheeler dealing, and this is one of the key reasons why Cameron is being so roundly trashed on this issue.

  45. @Jayblanc,

    Perhaps. Although I think Cameron (and Miliband, for he was at it too) have a reasonably robust defence. They followed the Speaker’s, and the Attorney-General’s advice. I agree the way some of the headlines were expressed won’t have helped Cameron at all.

    No doubt if he had refrained from making a statement he’d have had negative headlines about “guilty silence” etc, etc. This was always going to be one of those weeks that could never go well for the Tories. On balance I think it could have gone worse.

  46. On the EU point, I would just say that whether Cameron’s position on renegotiation is a cynical ploy to try and appease UKIP or not, it does pretty much represent my actual beliefs.

    In general I support UK membership of the EU and I believe we would suffer economically from leaving. But if the EU turned a stony face to Britain and said, “Ever Closer Union – Take It Or Leave It”, I would vote to leave in any referendum.

  47. NeilA,

    If Facists one across Europe and we couldn’t accept that then it might be time to leave, but if they had one then that’s democracy.

    I suspect if UKIP and it’s allies had won and another European leader was trying to block Farage as head of the commission people in the UK would cry foul.

    The Tory position is coloured by the fact that most of them don’t like Europe or sharing power.

    They complain about it being remote and undemocratic and want reform but then oppose a candidate from the group that just one a continent wide election.

    If the lead candidate shared the Tory parties views they wouldn’t have a problem with the parliament proposing him.

    Maybe if Cameron wins a majority at the next election, because of the collapse of the LibDems and Ukippers voting Tory, but there is a swing to Labour he should stand down in favour of Milliband.

    Sure he might have won the election but the “mood would have seen a shift to the left”

    Peter.

  48. Purely on polling matters (as opposed to what is the right thing to do), I don’t see why anyone would doubt it has been bad news for Cameron on the Juncker issue.

    It should be written in stone that every time the Tories bring up Europe and Immigration they will come out of it badly unless they actually get a result from the negotiations.

    In the two party past it might well have worked well for them as it was a simple message that they were being tougher on the EU than Labour was. Things have now changed because of UKIP- bring Europe/immigration to the top of the agenda and UKIP take votes off the Tories. Seeing the negotiations for “reforms” faltering also plays into UKIP’s hands.

    Negotiations in private and a “we’ll let you know what happens with a referendum at the end of it” might have been OK- failed negotiations in public won’t.

  49. NEIL A

    I suspect your view is in line with the majority in the UK.

  50. SHEV11

    ” I don’t see why anyone would doubt it has been bad news for Cameron on the Juncker issue.”

    See my posts and those of Tony Deans above, thats at least two people who disagree with you.

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