This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, very much in line with the recent average. The average figures in YouGov’s daily polls so far this month are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.


378 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 7, UKIP 14”

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  1. Spearmint

    Fisher’s latest prediction is Con 302 – Lab 292 – LD 28 – hardly ‘a big win’!

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  2. @Survation: NEW: Survation/M.O.S. Westminster VI – (with change since 24th May) CON 27% (NC) LAB 36% (+4), LD 7% (-2) UKIP 22% (-1) OTHERS 9 (NC)

    Looking good for a Labour win no wonder Fischer is quickly changing his projections

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  3. so will there be a crossover between ukip and con?

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  4. Tables for survation here

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Jean-Claude-Juncker-Poll-MoS.pdf

    Fieldwork was on 27 June, so before the “Britain heads for EU exit” headlines.

    So it doesn’t tell us yet if Cameron has succeeded in moving some UKIP voters into the conservative block, or alienated some of his centre left and sent them where – to Labour, or Lib Dems? Or if it has been ignored by most voters because they are too busy watching football or Wimbledon or Glastonbury.

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  5. Also worth pointing out Survation has the Greens on 5% as we watch the battle for 4th/ 5th place between the Lib Dems and Greens.

    In table 4 the raw numbers are 40 saying lib dem, 36 saying Green, the final numbers seem to flatter the lib dems with the allocation of undecided/refused based on 2010 votes which may not be valid for the lib dems.

    Will we have cross over soon between Lib Dems and Green?

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  6. Second time I’ve ever reported a comment. If the EU is neo-fascist, then so is Winston Churchill. Robert Schumann, Roy Jenkins, myself, etc, etc ,ad inf.

    As my grandfather used to say, what narrischkeit.

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  7. LAB moves up 4 to take 9% lead in Survation Mail on Sunday poll taken after the Juncker decision
    CON 27=
    LAB 36 +4
    LD 7 -2
    UKIP 22 -1

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  8. LAB moves up 4 to take 9% lead in Survation Mail on Sunday poll taken after the Juncker decision
    CON 27=
    LAB 36 +4
    LD 7 -2
    UKIP 22 -1

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  9. The UK Government appears to have adopted an interesting concept of “non-political”.

    “It is Government policy to maintain the UK and as such it is not a ‘political issue’.”

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/westminster-propaganda-war-to-encourage-armed-forces-to-vote-no.24607959

    On that basis, every political policy of the current UK administration is “non-political”.

    Such an interpretation would make the UK even more ludicrous than politics here in the USA – a task which I’d have thought almost impossible, so full credit to Cameron and Clegg.

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  10. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 27th June – Lab 37%, Con 33%, UKIP 14%, LD 8%, Greens 5%, Nats 3% APP -25

    Greens still at 5% with yougov taken mostly from the 2010 LD’s

    Cons losing more than usual to UKIP -18% of their 2010 voters, but getting higher than usual number from LD’s and Lab

    Lab not reaching thier 40% strategy because the rentention of their 2010 voters is poor -
    6% to Cons, 7% to UKIP 6% to Minor Parties

    All the economic questions flowing away from the Coalition

    The big one for me is the personal finance question. I theorised that the older voters are more pesismistic about the future because their saving returns are low and the working age voters are pessimistic because their wages rises are below inflation.

    At the end of each month wages are paid. If wages had increased a lot this week , it might have shown up in the improvement in the optimism of working age voters.

    However all these groups became more pessimistic

    How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? -18% (better 17% worse 35%) down 3% from last week

    I suspect that wages have not picked up much in the month of June

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  11. @ Toonie

    “LAB moves up 4 to take 9% lead in Survation Mail on Sunday poll taken after the Juncker decision”

    Nonsense – as the poster before you said, fieldwork was all done before the Juncker headlines etc, (and therefore no doubt most of it before the actual decision).

    Whether it will move polls or not anyway, is another matter.

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  12. LizH
    Thanks for the link to Juncker’s statement of 5 principle objectives. The 5th of these is significant in being entirely concerned with his response to the UK special interests and needs, as being outside the Eurozone and other EU institutions, and in responding – and offering further dialogue in response to – Cameron’s list of UK demands in his DT article and other statements.
    Cameron’s problem domestically in this confrontation is first that he appeared to show poor judgement in seeking to close the door on European Parliament election of a President, when that was a horse which had already bolted; secondly that the electorate have little knowledge or understanding of the functions of the Parliament, the Council of Ministers or the Commission. So his attacking the structure and its effect in electing Juncker was a lose, lose situation.
    More meaningful to the electorate will be Juncker’s, or more broadly the EU’s effectiveness in the other objectives which Juncker set out and which have resonance in UK politics: an EU-wide energy policy and management; a customs union with the US; the pursuit of an economic policy which achieves economic security for pensioners and fairer distribution between capital and wage earners; a more rational structural support for failing economies within the EU based on social impact assessment as well as fiscal rigour.
    Of immediate interest, but not on the Juncker list, is the management of relations with Russia and the concerned states in resolving disputes and insurrections based on the interests of Russian speaking communities and the interventions of armed insurgents in the Ukraine, but also the more slow-burning issues of Russian minorities in Georgia, Belarus, and the Baltic States. Has this specific Barosso challenge and his assertion of Commission management of foreign policy been dropped or pushed down the list, and will we see a more rational and long-term rapprochement which the EU could shape rather than manage, involving agreement with the UK, the US and NATO,l, but crucially also with Russia as a partner, and including the vital question of energy supply from the East, not as a problem and threat but as an asset and mutual interest?

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  13. The Europhobes are making their usual mistake of imagining everyone thinks like them because they never talk to anyone else.

    As the Guardian points out, Cameron appears to be in danger of being the PM that broke up the Union and took the remains out of Europe.

    I’m fairly sure the verdict of history on a PM that managed that would be fairly firm.

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  14. @ OldNat

    It is interesting to note the SNP’s support for Herr Juncker’s candidacy for EU president.

    See: http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-hails-validation-from-juncker-vote.24619900

    The German agenda for the EU is to undermine other large European states, particularly multinational ones such as the UK, partly via its support and funding for the Nazi-inspired FUEV (Föderalistische Union Europäischer Volksgruppen), with which the Celtic nationalist groups have been associated. A YES vote in September 2014 would be in the German national interest, but clearly not that of the UK. Another example of a multinational state that Germany had a leading hand in destroying was Yugoslavia, in particular via its support for the Ustashe-inspired “independent” state of Croatia, which has now become the 28th member of the EU. I suspect that Germany would like Scotland to be the EU’s 29th member. In its early years in the mid C20, the SNP was ambivalent in its attitude to pre-1945 Germany.

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  15. @MiserableOldGit

    “Second time I’ve ever reported a comment. If the EU is neo-fascist, then so is Winston Churchill. Robert Schumann, Roy Jenkins, myself, etc, etc ,ad inf.”

    Having only just dipped into the thread to pick up the weekend polls, I didn’t see the original comment you reported, but, sadly, it doesn’t surprise me at all. Fairly typical of the hokum that is talked about the EU by people who oppose it. We really need a return to rationality, and quickly.

    As for the polls, YouGov steam blithely on, undisturbed, but the Survation suggests a bit of a boost for Labour, although I suspect it’s more a reversion to the mean after their last, rather eccentric, one, showing Labour on 32%. I’m also doubtful that the Tories are as low as 27 and UKIP as high as 22, but, whichever way you look at these polls, they aren’t good for the Conservatives. Not good at all.

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  16. 9% lead biggest for a long time, so probably upper end of MoE. Still there has been a widening since the Euro elections, based somewhat on raised Labour VI but also on rubbish Con VI. 27% twice in a row is pretty dire, and Labour are actually beating the Coalition in this poll.

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  17. @Daodao

    This is site about polling, not dodgy conspiracies.

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  18. I think recent event regarding Cameron vs Juncker will not really change VI much.

    Perceptions previously held will just be further reinforced.

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  19. AW

    On the YG Politics page, there is a series of really old polls listed at the top right.

    Has something gone wrong or changed?

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  20. @ Catmanjeff

    The German/EU attitude to the most important vote in the UK’s history on 18/9/14 is of interest from a polling perspective.

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  21. “All the economic questions flowing away from the Coalition”

    If so, this would fit with other surveys on household finance. The rising optimism stalled and slipped back slightly in May, but slumped fairly dramatically in June.

    I said at the time that I felt the government was being far too premature when they said real wage growth had returned after a single month’s figures showed a tiny crossover between earnings and prices, and indeed since then, the picture has reverted to falling real incomes.

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  22. @ Miserable Old Git

    I have modified the comment to which you took offence as follows:

    In the light of DC’s recent battle against centralising corporatist tendencies in the EU, promoted by Juncker and supported by Merkel, an interesting video on the political background of those who founded the EU can be found at:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lBW9NI90jQ&sns=tw

    Ever since the formation of a united Germany in the 1860s, it has pursued the same objective, albeit by very different means in different eras. The EU is a major vehicle for achieving its aims.

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  23. @Daodao

    The German/EU attitude to the most important vote in the UK’s history on 18/9/14 is of interest from a polling perspective.

    That I can see.

    The German agenda for the EU is to undermine other large European states, particularly multinational ones such as the UK, partly via its support and funding for the Nazi-inspired FUEV (Föderalistische Union Europäischer Volksgruppen), with which the Celtic nationalist groups have been associated.

    That’s nothing to do with polling, is dangerous nonsense, and not worthy of this site.

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  24. Smithson tweeting nonsense linking the Survation poll to the Juncker business. The Coulson stuff may have had some impact but Survation do seem to have the Tories lower than other pollsters in general (their rating was the same as May, whilst LAB’s went up). At the moment that poll is just an outlier, essentially.

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  25. @Alec
    “I said at the time that I felt the government was being far too premature when they said real wage growth had returned after a single month’s figures showed a tiny crossover between earnings and prices, and indeed since then, the picture has reverted to falling real incomes.”
    —————————-
    Spot on IMO. I am sceptical about official inflation figures no matter who is in power, especially when pensions, wages, benefits etc are geared to them and the idea of excluding housing costs makes a mockery of them. As for food prices I doubt whether they take account of shrinking sizes & weights, or the extra water / air / gunge which is added to many products. End of rant. Time for a cuppa.

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  26. DaoDao,

    “The German/EU attitude to the most important vote in the UK’s history on 18/9/14 is of interest from a polling perspective.”

    18-9-14….The Parable of the Pharisees and the Tax collector!

    The conspiracy goes that far back…Wow!

    Peter.

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  27. @Daodao – I think you make some potentially valid, if somewhat debatable assertions regarding German foreign policy through the ages. I can’t, for example, see any difference between your supposed notion of Germany trying to undermine other major European nations influence and the UK’s long held policy framework towards Germany – including Thatcher’s opposition to reunification. This has never, nor will it ever, make the UK a fascist state.

    And I think this is where you just go off the intellectual rails. You appear to equate everything German with fascism.

    Personally, I find it a bit difficult to equate German policy on the EU with fascism, for a few blindingly obvious reasons.

    It involves handing over national sovereignty to a wider group of democratic nations. EU membership binds member states to certain codes and ethics. I find it difficult to conceive of Hitler sitting in EU meetings, accepting a majority vote on an issue proposed by, say, Belgium.

    I think you’re on a typical internet kick of spouting a pet theory which has no real relationship to reality. It’s a shame, as you do sometimes make interesting points, but unfortunately your entire online persona is degraded by this nonsense, so we end up discounting entirely your contributions.

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  28. The EU is neither fascist nor neo-fascist, and I am not suggesting this. The Germans recognised after WWII (which they did not accept in 1918) that military might was not the way to achieve their objectives.

    What I am proposing is that:
    a) the EU’s views and those of its founders are inflenced by the corporatist/authoritarian/pan-European vision akin to that espoused by pre-WWII fascism; and
    b) the Germans, as the largest ethnic group in Europe, see themselves as the natural leaders of the movement towards ever closer (European) union.

    However honey-tongued Merkel, Juncker and other like-minded Europeans are in their utterances, such views are an anathema from a British perspective, but the Celtic nations, with their volkisch approach, see a niche for themselves in a German-led Europe of the Regions.

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