The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out tonight, with topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 17%(-2), Greens 5%. Their Labour lead remains at four points.

Yesterday there was also a “new” TNS voting intention poll, as far as I can tell the first Westminster poll they’ve published since last November. Topline figures there are CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 23%. While it was newly published, the fieldwork was actually carried out a week and a half ago (I’m not quite sure why they publish so late – with their Scottish polls I’ve always assumed it’s something to do with the difficulties of doing face-to-face polling, but their Westminster polls are done online).

102 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 31, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 17”

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  1. Personally I think there’s a lot of guff being spouted on both sides.

    Labour are doing OK. They’ve maintained a consistent lead, and although it’s fairly small, the skew provided by FPTP means that as things stands it’s more than enough.

    Things are actually looking rosier for Labour post-Euros than they might have done. I suspect the government score is being supressed a bit by what has been another run of gaffepronedness, Ed M’s personal figures remain terrible but I think that’s priced in.

    However from the other side, I think people are mistakenly conflating “Labour comfortably ahead and are still likely to win the 2015 GE” with “Tories don’t stand a chance, Ed’s a shoe-in in 2015”.

    Yes, it is not inevitable that governments get a big swing back to them in the last year. Yes, the Tories need a much higher vote share to win than Labour does. Yes, the economy is still a mixed picture. But being 3% ahead in the polls is absolutely no guarantee of victory. Governments can and do come back from 3% down to win convincingly. The odds are against it, but to rule it out is very complacent.

  2. Neil A

    “The odds are against it, but to rule it out is very complacent.”

    Probably more a case of wanting to upset Pman than complacency.

    But still, a better chance for a Labour Govt than England have of winning the World Cup – and I don’t just mean next month.

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