The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 10%(-3), UKIP 16%(+1). Changes are from ICM’s poll a month ago which, as you’ll note from the changes, showed a Tory lead. As we’ve seen in the other polling series that showed the Tories ahead or equal last month (Ashcroft, Populus and YouGov), Labour have now clawed back ahead and ICM shows the same – though with a lead of just one point things remain extremely narrow.

The Liberal Democrat score of 10% is not that bad compared to the figures they’ve been receiving in polls from other companies, but ICM normally give the Liberal Democrats their highest scores, so for them this equals their lowest score since way back in 1991 (the Guardian write up refers to it as ICM’s lowest ever for the Liberal Democrats. This isn’t the case, ICM were responsible for the Lib Dems lowest ever score of 3% back in 1989, but this is the lowest ICM have ever shown for them since they switched to phone polling in the 1990s.

The question also asked leader job approval ratings, finding drops for all three leaders. David Cameron’s net rating fell back into negative territory (-5, after +2 last month), Nick Clegg’s rating falls from minus 21 to minus 37, Ed Miliband’s from minus 25 to minus 39. George Osborne’s approval rating is now plus 6, outperforming all the others.


108 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 31, LAB 32, LD 10, UKIP 16”

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  1. Tabs are now at
    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_june.pdf

    Greens 6%, SNP 4%, Plaid 1%. BNP *, Others 1%.

  2. … so that’s Greens +2%, SNP +1, Plaid -1, others level.
    compared with the last ICM Gruaniad

  3. Well, well. Osborne is now a popular politician…

    Never thought we’d see that. Remember how much of a drag on Tory fortunes we all thought he was and would be back in 2009-2010.

  4. UKPR calculator:

    Lab 321
    Con 269
    LD 30
    Oth 30

    Lab short by 5

  5. Labour to win a majority with 32%! Or 20% including those who don’t vote, Greens and UKIP could win no seats with 22%. Now that’s what i call democracy.

  6. Best Poll for the Tories for a while. I’m not surprised at Osborne’s positive rating. To be expected with the economy clearly improving even if most people are not seeing much benefit yet. Somewhat surprised at EdM’s big decrease in approval. Maybe his absence from the news generally is having a negative effect.

    Fits in with my view of the outcome in 2015.

  7. I’m not particularly concerned about those that don’t vote. So far as I can see, they’ve delegated the decision to those that do. It’s just another form of proxy vote, but you share out your vote equally in tiny pieces between all of your fellow constituents that could be bothered.

  8. The commentariate (particularly the BBC) went ballistic when the Conservatives notched up a small lead. Questions about Eds leadership and all the rest. They go very quiet when Labour leads in opinion polls.

  9. @Hoof Hearted

    “Labour to win a majority with 32%! Or 20% including those who don’t vote, Greens and UKIP could win no seats with 22%. Now that’s what i call democracy.”

    See a thousand different posts from a thousand previous threads making the very same point. In summary, First Past the Post is not a very good electoral system, is it, and it is becoming ever more anachronistic and obsolete as the old two party hegemony steadily unravels? But, we are where we are, we declined to moderately improve it when given the opportunity in 2011, and we’re sort of stuck with it, I’m afraid.

    Another slightly quirky ICM poll but probably more in line with other pollsters than some previous ICMs. I’m tempted to repeat my observation that both the two main parties are performing unspeakably badly, but I remain rather more preoccupied by the continuing refusal of the Tory VI to show any signs of life despite increasingly clement political weather for them. Continuing good economic news (well, headline good economic news, anyway) and now we’re told that Cameron and Osborne are two of the most popular (least unpopular?) politicians in the country. The upshot of all this? Tory VI takes a dive by 2 points to the spine-chillingly low figure of 31%.

    The clock ticks on. Only 10 months to go now.

  10. @MikeB,

    That’s not necessarily partisanity, it may just be the difference between “news” and “not news”.

    Whatever one thought of “crossover” it was definitely news.

    Labour have crept back ahead, but it’s not especially dramatic. And on balance I think the Tories are probably just relieved that they escaped a major setback at the Euros and Newark. Remember the portents of doom leading up to May.

  11. CROSSBAT11

    “The clock ticks on. Only 10 months to go now.”

    As I’ve said before what matters is what the electorate do when faced with the actuality of the ballet box in 2015 and answer the question facing them of who do you want to run the country and the economy for the next five years.

    The poll figures now are irrelevant to what happens in 2015 IMO.

  12. Well PR is good enough in the European elections, right across Europe. If people vote for a party in high enough numbers then they deserve representation.

    I do wonder if the amount of candidates that stand for the Greens in key marginals could decide if Labour get the most seats or not.

  13. ICM tend to be quite generous to the LD’s (we’ve seen 15-17% at times when everyone else says 12% or so), so I tend to “normalise” these polls, knocking off 2-3% from the LD’s and adding it to Labour in order to make it more in line with everyone else. Assuming that ICM are the ones out of line with reality. If not, then the original figures support my prediction for 2015.

    Osbourne’s current popularity might be a suitable basis for a leadership bid – assuming the position is open sometime soon.

  14. “the actuality of the ballet box in 2015”

    TOH thinks the tories will dance to victory

  15. GUYMONDE

    Never said that, creep home with a small majority is my forecast.

  16. It should be remembered that in November 1989 the LDs as such were only a month old… ICM were still prompting for the continuing SDP (on 4% in that poll). The combined LD + cSDP percentage was in high single figures for quite a while with ICM.

    The merger happened in 1988, but there had been a quick sucession of name changes from “SDP-Liberal Alliance” to “Social and Liberal Democrats” and the short-lived “Democrats” before finally settling on “Liberal Democrats”.

  17. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead down one to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%

  18. toh

    Ballot

    Ballet

    Dance

    Joke

  19. NEILA

    @” Remember how much of a drag on Tory fortunes we all thought he was and would be back in 2009-2010.”

    “we all” ?

    Thats not speaking for me Neil.

  20. Good Evening All.
    Beautiful sunset tonight.
    Lib Dems still at 7% to 8% .
    Labour and Tories seem to be heading for a dead heat.

  21. Billy Bob,

    I accept your basic point but don’t think you can just lump together the Salads and cSDP as one vote share – the whole point of the cSDP was that they didn’t want to be Lib Dems! Some went to Labour some went to the Tories, so maybe the combined share was more like 6%.

    Anyway, tonight’s poll. Guess it’s not a Lib Dem recovery after all although Lab 37 seems a little higher than usual. Let’s see if they keep it up.

  22. YouGov/Sun Indyref:
    No on 53% (+2 since April) and Yes on 36% (-1). Excluding Don’t Knows, it’s 60% No (+2) and 40% Yes (-2).

  23. @”Tory VI takes a dive by 2 points to the spine-chillingly low figure of 31%.”

    Oops-& now its back to a spine tinglingly nice 34%.

    What a boring football match. Mexico should have won.
    The funniest thing was when Brasil’s Fred was substituted , and Jo came on-I was waiting for those other well known samba socceroos , Harry & Jim .

  24. Very much so TOH. Labour supporters are playing for the whistle and hoping the crowd doesn’t wake up in time

  25. ‘Well PR is good enough in the European elections, right across Europe. If people vote for a party in high enough numbers then they deserve representation. ‘

    Yes well this is a long standing discussion, or should I say canard.

    What you get is that nobody gets what they voted for – so how is that giving any representation? What happens is parties working out post election coalitions in smoke free rooms. In some cases this seems to take years – OK I exaggerate.

    You may say it is valid but is it really democratic?

  26. “Labour and Tories seem to be heading for a dead heat.”

    I’m losing count of your predictions Chris but to be that accurate with nearly 11 months to go will be impressive.

    And if you’re wrong you can remind us of one of yer other ones.

    [I assume you are keeping a log book?]

  27. Regarding these poll predictors – remember they are statistical models and not very sophisticated ones.

    Particularly for UKIP and the Greens, which had low support at the last GE, the assumption is that any gain in support will be spread uniformly across Britain. I recall making a certain set of predictions and the calculator gave UKIP their first two gains in the north of Scotland!

    Sadly it seems no account is taken of the real data available from local elections in the years since 2010.

  28. “Nick Clegg is considering matching David Cameron’s offer to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, in a dramatic move that would leave Labour exposed.”

    The Times

  29. @Colin

    The LDs do seem to have been wavering on the referendum issue for a while…

    They are quite keen on one anyway (if Cameron gets the type of change he wants it would presumably be enough to trigger the referendum ‘lock’ that they support) and so I don’t think they’d want opposition to Cameron’s one to rule them out of a post-2015 coalition. It may therefore be best for them to support the next round of the EU Referendum Bill rather than look stupid when they sign up to something they spent time opposing in 2015.

  30. JACK

    Yes-it certainly makes sense-and NC must be looking for straws to clutch at. This seems a reasonable one.

    Over to EM. now.

  31. @mrnameless

    Party members would have been up with the intricacies of the split, but the average voter would have been confused by the number of mutations that the new merged party underwent.

    SDP would at that time have had better name recognition, and David Owen had been one half of the Two Davids whereas Paddy Ashdown was still a relative unknown.

  32. “. Labour supporters are playing for the whistle ”

    How does that work in what we call “normal life” ?

    It just seems to me like a rather silly and meaningless thing to say.

    Still, I shall join in with the ole tosh:

    I think the Tories are playing for pens.

    [Dunno how that works either.]

  33. Either ICM has some wonderful method that will show up all the other pollsters or it’s off the wall. Can’t be both.

    I remember on here that ICM used to be called the ‘gold standard’ even though it was a phone poll. Is that what we still think?

  34. R and D

    Good posts this evening but I think you are p*ss*ng into the wind.

  35. Mike Smithson did a comparison of Pollsters-divergence from the average of them all I think it was.

    ICM had the greatest divergence in Lab/Con difference.

  36. ROSIE and DASIE/
    Hello to you.
    Predictions for 2015 GE.
    I think there will be no majority for any party, so a de facto dead heat, just like in Feb 74

  37. Neil A

    Well, well. Osborne is now a popular politician…

    It’s not exactly that. The actual question is:

    From what you have seen or heard, do you think the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne is doing a good job or a bad job?

    This doesn’t mean they like him (they certainly don’t see him as being the next Tory leader). In addition ICM’s wording tends to make people focus on what to media report rather than what they actually feel themselves.

    This may also tie in with the uncertainty about how people view the economy – they’re being told about it endlessly, but most of them aren’t feeling it.

    I’m not particularly concerned about those that don’t vote. So far as I can see, they’ve delegated the decision to those that do.

    I think the problem about this poll though is that is almost certainly not accurate in that regard. Ignoring ICM’s adjustment (which made little difference this or last time except to the Lib Dems), just under 50% of ICM’s respondents actually gave a VI. Given that even telephone polls over-estimate turnout (because non-voters are also more likely to be non-poll answerers) unless GE turnout plummets to 40% or less, there’s a lot of people who haven’t decided yet but who will vote. (I know your point was also more general and about political responsibility, but it’s got to be remembered that many who look like their opting out now, won’t)

  38. Playing for the whistle,well it didn’t do the Italians any harm the other evening.

  39. @TOH

    “The poll figures now are irrelevant to what happens in 2015 IMO.”

    So why waste your time (and ours) on a site dedicated to analysis of polling???

  40. @TOH – “Best Poll for the Tories for a while.”

    ?!? – they’ve gone from a lead of two to trailing by one. Not quite sure how this constitutes a good poll for them?

  41. MikeB

    The commentariate (particularly the BBC) went ballistic when the Conservatives notched up a small lead. Questions about Eds leadership and all the rest. They go very quiet when Labour leads in opinion polls

    They don’t go quiet at all. If Labour goes back in the lead, it’s questions about Ed’s leadership and all the rest.

    (Part of it is what Neil A says about what’s new is news, but an awful lot is about what fits the expected ‘story’ and so actually the opposite of news.)

  42. Labour on a spine-tingling 37% in latest YouGov, up 5 on ICM rating.

    Nah ne nah ne nah nah…

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    :-)

  43. It does get tiresome when certain people constantly post for reassurance from other Bloggers, whatever the Poll figures, that all is OK and the red ship is going to win. We know your views from every other discussion Topic !!!

    Re the latest figures I don’t think Ed M should worry about the personal figures as …
    1. He cannot realistically go lower and so he is hitting bottom early
    2.Personal ratings are a small part of an overall equation

  44. Reports abound that Cameron has all but conceded he will lose on Juncker. This begs the question of why he went to war on this one quite so publicly. I’ve said all along I felt this was a mistake, but the relevant question is what polling/political impact it might have.

    In itself, probably not that much directly, but I suspect this decision and it’s poor handling by Cameron will have some wider repercussions. It shows as another sign that his ability to persuade other EU leaders of his case is decidedly limited. Treaty reform seems a non starter.

    UKIP, but more importantly right wing Tory MPs will be taking note. Cameron’s rash referendum promise looks like tying him up in knots, and I suspect a returned Tory majority means in effect that we leave the EU, with Cameron presumably campaigning for exit, such is his strategic logic.

  45. If NC campaigns for remaining in in an EU referendum… well we all know how that will turn out.

    A desperate measure I suggest. I’m not sure the rank and file of the party will welcome it.

  46. @Alec,

    It’s certainly embarassing for Cameron, but I don’t think most of the public will take much notice.

    As to the effect on the “renegotiation” I think that partly depends on the reasons for other leaders supporting Juncker. If their support for him was specifically about obstructing Cameron’s renegotiation, then we can expect him (with their support) to play hardball. If however, their reasons for supporting Juncker were nothing to do with Cameron, and they supported him despite his views on EU reform rather than because of them, then there may be a chance of a bit of quid quo pro.

    Respectfully, I’ve rather lost count of the number of times you’ve fingered an issue as likely to cause a long-term problem for Cameron’s credibility/popularity, and he’s still going, and still vastly more popular than Miliband.

  47. Just wanted to add how much I enjoyed the Brazil v Mexico game tonight. Classic defensive display from Mexico and a magnificent performance from their goalkeeper. What a superb atmosphere too inside the magnificent Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza. 60,000 crammed in, mainly Brazilians obviously, but a large raucous and boisterous Mexican contingent as well.

    I was going to make some silly jokes about the names of some of the Brazilian players, but I’ll leave that to the real football connoisseurs. :-)

  48. “Predictions for 2015 GE.
    I think there will be no majority for any party, so a de facto dead heat, just like in Feb 74”

    That’s a prediction singular Chris…. but…… are you sure you know what a “de facto dead heat” actually is?

    I thought you were predicting exactly equal numbers of votes but, failing that, surely equal numbers of seats.

    No O.M. is a bit weedy.

  49. @NumberCruncher

    “YouGov/Sun Indyref:
    No on 53% (+2 since April) and Yes on 36% (-1). Excluding Don’t Knows, it’s 60% No (+2) and 40% Yes (-2).”

    Time for a dedicated Scottish Independence thread!

  50. There’s been a lot of putting figures into the Swingometer and looking at the make-up of the Commons (even Kellner was at it in the Guardian). But, as Old Nat would be quick to remind us, there’s more than one country involved here if you look at the latest Westminster polls. For example take the YouGov for the Sunday Times for GB:

    Con 34%
    Lab 37%
    L/D 8%
    Oth 22% [1]

    and putting the first three into the simple all-GB Swingometer gives a Labour majority of 32. (Con 266, Lab, 341, L/D 17, Oth 8+18)

    However plug all these figures into Anthony’s advanced Swingometer:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/advanced-swingometer-map

    Together with Survation’s Scottish poll earlier in the Week:

    Con 15%
    Lab 32%
    L/D 5%
    SNP 40%
    Oth 8%

    And the most recent YouGov for Wales (May):

    Con 22%
    Lab 43%
    L/D 7%
    P/C 11%
    Oth 16% [1]

    and you get the following seat breakdown:

    Con 255, Lab 324, L/D 17, Others 54

    and Labour is short of an overall majority by two seats.

    This is because the seat figures for Scotland are: Con 2, Lab 22, L/D 2, SNP 33 and Labour’s losses there, though offset by some extra gains from the Conservatives, loses them their overall majority.

    Of course if you take away the Scottish from the above figures and Labour has an overall majority of 13. So maybe the only way to get a Labour majority is for Yes to win.

    [1] For reasons to do with Anthony’s software, percentages don’t add to 100.

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