The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 10%(-3), UKIP 16%(+1). Changes are from ICM’s poll a month ago which, as you’ll note from the changes, showed a Tory lead. As we’ve seen in the other polling series that showed the Tories ahead or equal last month (Ashcroft, Populus and YouGov), Labour have now clawed back ahead and ICM shows the same – though with a lead of just one point things remain extremely narrow.

The Liberal Democrat score of 10% is not that bad compared to the figures they’ve been receiving in polls from other companies, but ICM normally give the Liberal Democrats their highest scores, so for them this equals their lowest score since way back in 1991 (the Guardian write up refers to it as ICM’s lowest ever for the Liberal Democrats. This isn’t the case, ICM were responsible for the Lib Dems lowest ever score of 3% back in 1989, but this is the lowest ICM have ever shown for them since they switched to phone polling in the 1990s.

The question also asked leader job approval ratings, finding drops for all three leaders. David Cameron’s net rating fell back into negative territory (-5, after +2 last month), Nick Clegg’s rating falls from minus 21 to minus 37, Ed Miliband’s from minus 25 to minus 39. George Osborne’s approval rating is now plus 6, outperforming all the others.

108 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 31, LAB 32, LD 10, UKIP 16”

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  1. Are COLIN and TOH the same person?

  2. Rosieanddaisie

    Happy with an apology, thank you, thats fine, happy to leave it there.

  3. Phi re
    ‘“Remember ICM predict what the actual vote would be based on PAST support not what the current support is”

    No they take current support and then adjust using past support to make a prediction

  4. Interesting to see that the combined total of the 2 main parties is now 63%. In 1955, it was about 90% and has been on a steady decline since then, how much further down can it go?

  5. moi


    I am sorry you found the words “silly” and “meaningless” so offensive”

    [Snip. Let’s leave it there, rather than get into a silly back and forth]


    Like Howard, I am very upset that you have aimed the epithet “silly” at my post and am consulting my solicitor.

  6. Iraq situation is grim.

    Almost impossible to comprehend so much hate and evil…… and over what?

  7. OCH AYE THE NOOOOOOOOOOOMCFRED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. Reminder that it’s pax mans last news night tonight…

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