I had hoped we might get the monthly ICM poll tonight, but I’ve seen nothing yet so perhaps it’s next week. In the meantime we have Monday’s usual Ashcroft and Populus polls.

Ashcroft’s topline figures with changes from a week ago are CON 29%(+1), LAB 35%(+3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 15%(-2) (tabs here). Populus’s figures are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs here)


158 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus figures”

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  1. BP
    Thanks, you’re a gent.

    People are referring to polls that I don’t know what of. Could they provide links, unless AW begins a new thread.

  2. @ BEN FOLEY

    The Sun on Sunday poll is only published once a month previous to June was I think 4/5 May.

    Polls on usually listed/available on YouGov Politics page before being put into Archives.

  3. Bill Patrick 5:27 Alec 5:30

    You may be thinking of Pidley. That is a village in north east Cambridgeshire.

    It also styles itself – joke alert – home of the Pidley Mountain Rescue Team, actually a local charity, mountains being relatively absent in Cambs.

  4. @Rich

    Well according to the classification chosen by the Guardian the Labour parliamentary candidate around here must be classed as a political “insider”, because he has previously worked in politics by virtue of formerly working as an MP.

    So he’s damned accordingly and it doesn’t count that before becoming an MP in his 40s his career had included working as a solicitor specialising in employment law (a career he returned to after losing his seat), nor that before that I think he spent some time as a bus driver and as a lumberjack.

    And a very good candidate he is too.

  5. Phil – that’s the difficulty with analyses like that, they don’t deal well with people having several careers. For example, there are some MPs out there with career path through trade union politics who left school without qualifications, did a manual, working class job then became trade union officials before standing for Parliament.

    If you look at their final role before election it might be political officer or policy advisor for a trade union, so be classed as a “political job”, but obviously their background would be in a blue collar job.

    I think it’s made worse by how demanding a role as a PPC in a target seat is. It often demands time commitment that doesn’t sit easily with a normal full time job, fine for the wealthy or those in flexible roles, but other PPCs you see ending up in roles in politically sympathetic employers like think tanks or trade unions, political parties or other MPs who are happy to allow a PPC candidate the necessary freedom.

  6. Alister1948,

    Actually I was thinking of Coldhame, but perhaps that town isn’t as famous as it should be.

  7. toonie
    Thanks.

    BTW, Howard, there is a new thread.

  8. These questions on the leader are to me me difficult to read

    If you are in Government then your public exposure is pretty high. Cameron is always on the tv and Clegg has his phone ins and, at the moment, he is visible because he is doing so badly.

    For the opposition leader it is a bit more difficult to get exposure on tv, the coverage of the opposition is limited in any case and it has to be spread around the shadow cabinet a bit.

    As it is still the first term of a Government there is no large momentum for change in the air as there was in 1997 or 2010 which puts the focus on the opposition leadership a bit more. I think the media still sees a Tory victory as the most likely (based on their coverage) and so this gives them another excuse to ignore Miliband

    The consequence of this is that the negative ratings are perhaps quite soft. based on low exposure, low expectations and buying the media message that he is a bit ‘weird’, cannot eat a sandwich etc. Also, if you are a PM and someone does not like you then it is likely that they will not change their mind as you have been doing the job for 4 years already. If you have not been doing it then this can be based on more shaky ground of perception, and although not easy to change, good performance in the campaign may have a more marked affect

    The hope for Miliband is that he has a good campaign. He does come across as more cerebral and ‘geeky’ than the others but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I also find he comes across more natural in debates than Cameron who is easily riled and has no grasp of the detail. If there is also seen to be a ‘ganging up’ by the Coalition as well that may gel – us Brits love the underdog.

    I remind everyone of John Major and Thatcher. Although not exactly comparable clearly – they were both perceived as lacking charisma etc but still went on to win

    In summary, Miliband has to step up to the plate during the campaign, but the fact is that all the 3 main party leaders carry very little positive baggage with them and I think Miliband is the most likely to gain, not because he is necessarily ‘better’ but because opinions are based on much less. It could also reinforce peoples opinions of well of course and there will be no change – but will that make much difference on their VI?

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