I had hoped we might get the monthly ICM poll tonight, but I’ve seen nothing yet so perhaps it’s next week. In the meantime we have Monday’s usual Ashcroft and Populus polls.

Ashcroft’s topline figures with changes from a week ago are CON 29%(+1), LAB 35%(+3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 15%(-2) (tabs here). Populus’s figures are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs here)


158 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus figures”

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  1. So is Labour on the bounce back now?

  2. It definitely looks like labour are holding, and if anything increasing their lead boost following the European elections.

  3. Greens equal again with LibDems in Lord Ashcroft’s poll, before DK adjustment. Still no love in the headline figures.

  4. Good Evening All.
    Thanks Anthony.

    Labour still a short head in the lead.

  5. Anthony,

    Any plans to comment on the weekends Scottish polls.

    Scotland on Sundays coverage is a possible candidate for a bad reporting award, but then maybe I am bias as highlighting how many thought it would lead to post referendum divisions when more thought it wouldn’t, rubbed me up the wrong way.

    Peter.

  6. Looks like a couple of per cent shaved off the UKIP total, with a couple of per cent added to Labour, in these and yesterday’s YouGov – possibly related?

  7. So after 6 Ashcroft polls, we have 1 where he showed a similar Conservative score to other polls around the same dates, and 5 where his conservative score is *significantly* lower than other polls.

    His ‘others’ are also a lot higher. When looking at the tables the ‘others’ that are higher are other than Lib Dem, Green, SNP, PC, BNP. Who else is there apart from Respect – I didn’t see anyone else really come through in the Euro elections?

    The South East cross break has shown a Labour lead for all of the Ashcroft polls where Conservative scores seem low, and although that includes London where we saw Labour do really well in the Euro’s, other polls don’t really reflect that.

    But we did see in the heat maps for the Euro elections that the south east coast was turning very purple. Is Ashcroft picking up something other polling companies are missing, or is there something wrong with the methodology/ sample selection?

    Do the traditional regional weightings need to be re-configured across the board to better reflect the new ‘hot spots’ – Labour in urban areas, conservative in the rural areas, UKIP along the coastal areas?

    Euro Heat maps here:
    http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/european-election-results-2014.html

    You could have a London sample over represented from Tower hamlets, or a sample over represented from Richmond and end up with completely different overall results, which is the only reason I can think of for the very different results we are seeing for Ashcroft?

  8. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by four: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%

    Recovery for the Lib Dems ?

  9. Out of respect for ole nat can everybody keep their level of inane posts to a minimum.

    I think he finds it quite painful at times reading that sort of stuff [as he is obliged to do] when he is much cleverer himself.

  10. (From previous thread. Written just before cut off)

    A couple of things deep in the Ashcroft figures:

    – Only 17% of people said they would vote CON before weightings were applied (a far from ideal sample, then, I’d say).

    – A couple of polls recently have shown that large numbers of people think what colour the govt is will have no effect on themselves and their family. I’d suggest this is probably a massive shift from earlier decades caused by, among other things, changes in the economy and the general (and true to a large extent) feeling that the main parties are quite similar. The logical consequence of that shift would be to drive partisan dealignment further with people voting more on competence and how much they identify with a parties values than on the balance sheet. It also may go a long way to explaining why the recent economic improvement hasn’t been met with an upsurge in CON popularity like in 1983.

    – He asked if people have taken a foreign holiday in the last three years. Why?

    – Recalled 2010 vote was way off at CON 21 LAB 17 LD 13 (unweighted CON 22 LAB 20 LD 9)

  11. One out of every ten voters intends to vote Lib Dem and I’ve never met even just ONE.

    Ergo they must all be hiding in a very big cave somewhere.

    Which takes us back to the previous topic of nukes….

  12. False alarm. It seemed the Labour lead had narrowed to 3% but these polls suggest not. Still hardly any reduction in Labour’s lead since the beginning of the year.

  13. Seems significant how Cons are nearer to 30 than they used to be and on quite a regular basis.

    I believe a lot of policy stuff will come through from lab in next few months so how it is received/reported/distorted will be of interest.

  14. The Guardian are running a story on the economy which includes some ICM polling from over the weekend. No mention of VI though…

  15. @RosieandDaisie

    It’ll be interesting to see what LAB do policy wise. There is already a feeling that they are being hurt by policy overkill (too many things, too few over-arching ideas). However, they’ve got this policy review coming up and they are bound to come up with something. The energy freeze policy seemed to go down well (though the recent halt to the previously ever-rising prices may nullify its effect if the pattern continues until the GE). Thus, I think some sort of change to train ticket prices could be a route they go down (no pun intended!). Despite polls suggesting people are open to the idea I’d be shocked if they propose re-nationalisation but some sort of intervention is quite likely.

  16. Bit late with this question but what is “British bashfulness” , how does it differ from the ordinary type and how do we get over it, as our PM requires?

    I’ve started bellowing:

    “OY !!!!!! I’M BRITISH AND I’M BETTER THAN YOU MATE.”

    to anyone who looks a bit forrun but have only succeeded in annoying the nice bloke who runs the pizza shop and am now banned.

    Not sure if its such a great idea really and I shall go back to my normal modest self forfwiv.

  17. R&D

    “Out of respect for ole nat can everybody keep their level of inane posts to a minimum.
    I think he finds it quite painful at times reading that sort of stuff [as he is obliged to do] when he is much cleverer himself.”

    I promise never to mention the Soviet Union or Georgia again. That should do it.

  18. @Carfrew (5.54)

    A very insensitive comment from you in referring Geordieland as being close enough to Scotland. I am most upset at the thought of being confused with the Scots !!! :-)

  19. Norbold

    Yep!

  20. @Barnaby Marder

    “False alarm. It seemed the Labour lead had narrowed to 3% but these polls suggest not. Still hardly any reduction in Labour’s lead since the beginning of the year.”

    Indeed and you highlight something that has gone largely unnoticed as we’ve obsessed over Tory budget bounces, UKIP surges and Lib Dem implosions. There have been periodic reductions in Labour’s lead, to the point where some people talked excitedly about the cometh of the “Feast of the Great Crossover”, but these short interludes quickly unwound and we returned, rather boringly, to the sort of Labour lead we’d become used to for over the last 7 months or so; that is, 4-5%.

    There’s a little bit of chatter about UKIP’s imminent death too. I wonder about that and I’m inclined to be a little counter-intuitive on the subject. Don’t we think it’s remarkable that a protest party, with no MPs and very few councillors, has been in the 10-15% range in all opinion polls for well over 12 months now? I see no sign at all that they’re going to disappear any time soon, despite them being rather airily written off in some quarters. Their voters are defying sacred laws of psephology. How dare they??

    :-)

  21. “Greens equal again with LibDems in Lord Ashcroft’s poll, before DK adjustment. Still no love in the headline figures.” – TingedFringe

    Exactly equal. And in fact, again, ahead before weighting. How do the dk/wnv adjustments put them behind?

  22. CB

    Don’t you think there may be some connection between being “in the 10-15% range”, and having “no MPs and very few councillors” in FPTP elections/

  23. ..or policies.

  24. @Peter Bell

    Yes, soz about that, but you could look on the bright side and see it as being closer to England if that helps any…

  25. carfrew

    the fact that geordies divvunt tak proppah layke does NOT mean they are not English.

    They are probably the best of us all – but, as our ole PM is reetly consorned aboot they is a bit bashful layke – nah worrah mean bonny lad??

  26. @OldNat

    “Don’t you think there may be some connection between being “in the 10-15% range”, and having “no MPs and very few councillors” in FPTP elections/”

    True, but there’s a bit of the chicken and the egg about that as well. They’re consistently attracting the support of 10-15% of the electorate in the opinion polls, and higher percentages than that in by-elections and European elections, yet they have, and never have had, any Westminster presence to elevate their profile. That’s partly down to the point you raise that they haven’t been able to pull off a by-election win and, at general elections in the past, their level of support has tailed off badly. However, this Parliament has been different. They’ve come reasonably close in a couple of by-elections, topped the Euro poll and gathered some local councillors whilst consistently recording high opinion poll ratings.

    FPTP works against them, quite obviously, and you wonder what may happen to them in a PR based voting system where their support would convert to significant representation, but I still find it remarkable that they keep rolling along with these high opinion poll ratings. We’ve become inured to seeing them at 14% day after day, month after month.

  27. CB

    Agreed that a by-election win for Westminster would help them (and force them to create a coherent policy agenda).

    Could it be that there is a significant proportion of the population that is so disenchanted with the established parties (MP expenses etc, but also a feeling that MPs are totally disconnected from their aspirations/experience) that the question of a Lab or Con or LD Government (or any combination of 2 of them) will make no bloody difference?

  28. Crossbat makes an important point. I suspect that UKIP will wilt a little bit by 2015 but not down to anything like the levels seen in 2010. I still think their remaining votes will be disproportionately ex-Tory rather than ex-Labour – with a fair number of ex-LDs & ex-non-voters too. They should still be close to double figures. Whether that is going to be enough for a seat is another matter – I think they will come close but miss out. If Labour’s lead continues to decline at its present rate, the party will still be in the lead in terms of popular votes in the general election by around 2% – almost certainly enough to win outright. The onus is on the party’s opponents to eat into this, but I suspect Labour itself will have some success at squeezing the fairly sizable Green vote in the election too.

  29. It amazes me too the Greens polling 5%, despite them having so few councillors, their share of the vote falling in the Euros and so little media coverage.

  30. The SNP don’t seem to have done too bad being an alternative to liblabcons, and wanting to have more powers for its government.

  31. @Oldnat
    “Could it be that there is a significant proportion of the population that is so disenchanted with the established parties (MP expenses etc, but also a feeling that MPs are totally disconnected from their aspirations/experience) that the question of a Lab or Con or LD Government (or any combination of 2 of them) will make no bloody difference?”

    and @ Hoof Hearted
    “It amazes me too the Greens polling 5%, despite them having so few councillors, their share of the vote falling in the Euros and so little media coverage.”

    I think the Green polling intention, and UKIP’s are both symptoms of disenchantment with the three traditional English parties. The Scots are lucky to have the SNP. There is so little difference between the old parties, who have a consensus between them of being pro-Europe, anti-Capital punishment, pro-gay, etc etc which ignores significant bodies of opinion with differing views. The only difference is that they might have a slightly different vision of who they are going to punish with taxes.

    Unless one of the old parties makes a significant move away from what they perceive as the ‘centre ground’ (actually the centre ground amongst university-educated Londoners), their combined share of the vote will continue to decline. It was 73% as recently as 1992, and 57% in 2010, though this was admittedly a slight increase over the previous 2 elections. The advance of UKIP and the Greens will halt this temporary rally.

  32. @richard : the cross breaks for Ashcroft are different because yougov separates London out, and then has rest of south. Ashcroft has London as part of South East. Labour is doing very well in London as shown in both locals and Euros.

  33. Pete B

    “The Scots are lucky to have the SNP. There is so little difference between the old parties, who have a consensus between them of being pro-Europe, anti-Capital punishment, pro-gay, etc etc which ignores significant bodies of opinion with differing views.”

    Except that the SNP is “pro-Europe, anti-Capital punishment, pro-gay, etc etc”!

    Unless you are suggesting (which I doubt that you are) that there is no such constituency in Scotland (and I can assure you that you’ll find such folk voting SNP, Lab or Con – though probably few in our smaller parties like Greens or LDs) then that isn’t a sufficient explanation of why what was a fringe party in the 1960s became the party of government 50 years later.

    (For UKIP supporters, that 50 year time lapse must be very depressing! :-) )

  34. Oil.

  35. Neil A

    Were that the case, then the SNP would have become the dominant party in the 1970s.

    The rise and fall of parties/political movements are seldom simplistically explained by single words such as “oil” or “Europe”.

  36. In Westminster elections (which were the only option back then) the SNP were far more dominant in the mid 70s than they are now.

    It was Devolution that gave them their Big Chance.

    The transformation of the SNP vote after the presence of large reserves of North Sea hydrocarbons was confirmed, and then began to be exploited, is extraordinary.

    Until the discovery of Scottish oil, the SNP polled significantly less votes than Plaid Cymru. At the next election after the news hit (1966) SNP polled double Plaid’s score. And the SNP have never improved on their 1974 GE tally.

    Of course there are other factors, but if one looks at the historical period when SNP support went from “a little gang of crackpots” to “a significant political force”, and asks the question “what was going on at that time?” I don’t think the answer is Progressive Rock, or Vietnam.

    My gut instinct is that if the referendum is lost, there will probably never be another opportunity for Scotland to get away, as oil revenue will have pretty much disappeared by the time a “respectable period” has passed and another attempt is feasible.

  37. ICm poll June

    Is the recovery benefiting your family? -28% (Yes 18% No 46%)

    Yougov tracker

    How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months?

    Last 6 months Jan 17 to June 17 range -15% to -21%

    2014 Get Better range 15% to 20% avg 17% Fast Growth
    2013 Get Better range 10% to 18% avg 14%
    2012 Get Better range 7% to 12% avg 10% Stagnation
    2011 Get Better range 7% to 11% avg 10%
    2010 Get Better range 9% to 23% avg 12%
    2009 Get Better range 12% to 24% avg 19% Recession
    2008 Get Better range 8% to 17% average 11%
    2007 Get Better range 15% to 27% average 21% Boom

    a number of things struck me about these figures

    a) A large majority of people do not things will get better for them personally whatever the economy is supposed to be doing.

    b) Only 7% more people are feeling things wll get better than 4 years ago – that is a grand total of 14 people

    c) if people we really accurate about predicting their finances in 12 months, then there will be no ‘feel good’ factor by the time of the general election because that time is already gone, according to the latest trackers

    source for yougov
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1io9rbsh6j/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Economic%20Performance-060614.pdf

  38. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    “the fact that geordies divvunt tak proppah layke does NOT mean they are not English”

    ———

    Well you can’t be too careful these days…

  39. @FV

    Your figures suggest that people felt a bit more optimistic even during the recession under Labour in 2009 than they do now. Not that it got Labour re-elected…

    They also suggest that at least 7% feel optimistic no matter what the conditions…

  40. @Carfrew

    ‘They also suggest that at least 7% feel optimistic no matter what the conditions’

    yes i didn’t notice that, maybe their temperament is naturally jolly all the time or maybe they have so much money that economic conditions can never worry them.

    todays yougov says that 62% of people are worried about not having enough money to live on, which is really high – i am not sure if that is a recent trend or if life is always tough for most people

  41. Corection

    b) Only 7% more people are feeling things wll get better than 4 years ago – that is a grand total of 140 people

    The point i am making is the differences all through are quite small

  42. @RosieandDaisie

    We are not English – we are Northumbrian. Many years ago I launched (well did a play about) the NNP. It seems that the world has caught up with announcements for the NEP (North East Party).

  43. @floating voter….todays yougov says that 62% of people are worried about not having enough money to live on, which is really high – i am not sure if that is a recent trend or if life is always tough for most people…..

    Probably because for a lot of people wages have not kept up with inflation at all… For these people talk of growth at highest level for x yrs, wages rising at y% just isn’t resonating at all.

    Past periods of growth quickly translated into higher wages leading to the feel good factor. At the present time few employers feel pressured to pay their employees more just because the economy is growing…. Total output I still 17% below pre recession levels.

  44. NEILA

    @”My gut instinct is that if the referendum is lost, ”

    It would be a laugh if it isn’t though.

  45. But this is even funnier

    @”Tristram, thy name is Phil Neville.”

    Guardian.

  46. “Elsewhere, the survey suggested 41% of people in Scotland believed Trident nuclear submarines should continue to be based at Faslane on the Clyde after independence, while 37% said they should not.”

    More Scots want to stay in the UK than not. More Scots want to keep Trident than not….The SNP really don’t understand Scots, do they!

  47. @balbs

    I agree with you, that is exactly what i think

    plus older people who tend to have more savings are also pessimistic because of the low rates of return

    My theory is to improve people views of their personal financial situation there will need to be

    a) higher interest rates and so better saving returns

    b) wages consistently rising faster than imflation

    the Bank of England can do the first, but the second we can only hope that normality returns soon. The is a limit to how much people can cut back.

  48. @Oldnat – “The rise and fall of parties/political movements are seldom simplistically explained by single words such as “oil” or “Europe”.”

    I think in this case, broadly speaking, we have the exception that proves the rule.

    Without oil, @Neil A is absolutely correct – there would have been a very limited drive for independence, as the economic numbers would have been extremely dubious.

    As it is, the SNP have had to use some of the most optimistic combined projections of future exploitable reserves, prices and tax revenues, widely rejected by all other independent commentators, as without this approach they would be arguing for a Yes vote accompanied by a fall in living standards.

  49. @Carfew

    “They also suggest that at least 7% feel optimistic no matter what the conditions…”

    Crikey, I didn’t know Bankers and Hedge Fund Managers made up such a sizeable proportion of the population!

    :-)

  50. FV

    @”plus older people who tend to have more savings are also pessimistic because of the low rates of return”

    In this morning’s YG Poll, in answer to the question “Thinking about the next two or three years, how worried are you that people like you will not have enough money to live comfortably” :-

    over 60s were the least “worried” / most “not worried” age group.

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