The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out and has topline figures of CON 32%(+3), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(-1). Tabs are here.

Changes are from a month ago, just prior to the European elections. The two point Labour lead is the lowest that ComRes have shown in their online polls since February 2012, thought their telephone poll for the Independent had a one point lead earlier this year.


71 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 32, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 18”

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  1. There seems to have been a significant drop in liberal support- maybe only 2 percent but then when your only on 8% to start with that’s significant….

    I think liberal support will slump as low as 5 before recovering a little… Their ratings have been so low for so long now though that I think it’s now impossible for them to be over 10% at the election..

    We are now looking I think at a situation where their vote is so low that it’s now likely they will struggle to hole on even where there are established MPs and their MP numbers will fall to about 25 not the 37-45 most people have traditionally thought they would get

  2. This still shows UKIP at much higher level than others, even after a small decline.

    LD level remains dire

    Closing of Con / Lab gap probably in line with reversal of Euro election boost for UKIP

  3. 46 weeks to go the election and it’s seeming more and more unlikely that UKIP will be down to 5% by then, which David Cameron has said is his aim.

  4. If Labour want to improve their polling, they must discuss popular policy areas a bit more. Perhaps they are just waiting for the summer recess and the start of the conference season. i.e there is little point making any annoucements at this time of the year, with the world cup going on.

    It is a bit different for the coalition parties, as being in government, some of the polling will reflect whether they are seen as competent or not. If there are any more stories such as the passport backlog, then I can see the Tories slipping back a little. But having said that perhaps low 30’s polling represents the core Tory vote and this won’t change, even if there is a bad run of adverse media stories.

    If England won the world cup, would it have any influence on polling and the Scottish independence vote ? With the latter, if there is a sudden outburst of English nationalism following cup success, it might push some of the undecideds into the yes camp to vote for independence.

  5. LDs to win 37-45 seats? Sorry – but that has been off the cards for a long time. To illustrate this – list the LD MPs you reckon have a good chance at the next General Election. i reckon retaining 25 MPs would be a startlingly good result for them. Its more likely to be the low teens.

  6. @Andyjs
    ” UKIP will be down to 5% by then, which David Cameron has said is his aim.”
    That 5% would mean DC getting back all the Tory defectors to UKIP. Judging by comments on other blogs, those would be the last 5% to leave UKIP!
    The way to win UK general elections is to get all your supporters to vote for you, then persuade others if that’s not enough. DC has succeeded in getting a fair few Tory supporters to vow never to vote for him.

  7. Very few people will agree with you there. I think they will win well over 30, probably over 30 & possibly as many as 40. Polls have shown that where the LDs are the only serious challengers to the Tories they will still receive a substantial, however grudging, tactical vote. They will generally do very badly in seats where Labour is the challenger though.

  8. “probably over 35” that should have read.
    And yes I’m perfectly prepared to list the seats I think they’ll win.

  9. I think we can knock off a few Tory facing seats and seats where Labour have a reasonable organisation despite a third place finish last time.

    Consensus on here seems to be around the 35 mark but I’d venture down towards 30.

  10. @
    “stories such as the passport backlog,” One story is that it reveals general incompetence at running a service. Another is that it is largely due to 200,000 extra (unexpected?) applications from ‘foreigners’ . Not sure which is worse for Tories. One might (repeat might) send voters to Labour or more likely to just not bother voting. The other would surely send them to UKIP?
    By next May folk other than those directly affected will have forgotten.

  11. @Mr Nameless

    Ashcroft did a poll last September of Tory seats where the Lib Dems were a close second last time. He found the Tory & Lib Dems votes down by roughly the same amount, meaning no net swing. The number of seats the Lib Dems end up losing to the Tories could be countable on the fingers of one hand.

    Also, as you say, we need to draw a distinction between Lib Dem/Tory seats where Labour are a distant third and seats where Labour are closer. In the latter, Labour could spring a few surprises, particularly if they can establish themselves early on as the challenger. In the former however, I think many people & pundits will be surprised at how many Labour supporters grudgingly put their nosepegs on and vote tactically again.

  12. Barnaby i do see what you mean by the liberals keeping over 30 but I now think it’s getting to the stage where that isn’t possible anymore given they continue to slump in the polls…

    What I do think is interesting is that with the exception of Westmorland, Orkney and the isle of Skye seats I think all the other liberal seats are really up in the air… I don’t mean in a sense that they could loose them all but I think they could be some interesting results where they loose some relatively safe seats like Brecon and yet retain some others with much smaller majorities like Solihull or wells…

    I am going to say they keep hold of 27 seats- I won’t bore everyone by listing them and loose a huge number of deposits.

  13. Tables are here:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_15June2014_634287.pdf

    Greens are at 4%, same as last month, in fact everything except the Con rise looks like MoE.

    ComRes also asked: “Which of the following would you say are the most important British values?” (Respondents could name up to three from a list of 12.)

    Freedom of speech 48%

    Respect for the rule of law 34%

    Fairness 27%

    Tolerance 27%

    A sense of humour 26%

    Equality 24%

    Politeness 22%

    Political freedom 20%

    Responsibility 14%

    Religious freedom 12%

    Aspiration 3%

    Curiosity 2%

    Don’t know 7%

    (Obviously the most British value possible is modestly saying “Don’t Know” to such impertinent questions)

  14. (Obviously the most British value possible is modestly saying “Don’t Know” to such impertinent questions)

    That made me giggle

  15. Prof Scully reports on a BBC/ICM Welsh poll for 2016.

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/06/13/new-bbcicm-poll-voting-intentions-for-the-national-assembly/

    Labour seems to be slipping there as well.

  16. Coms Res ha ha ha.

  17. @Roger Mexico

    “ComRes also asked: “Which of the following would you say are the most important British values?” (Respondents could name up to three from a list of 12.)”

    Motherhood and Apple Pie 100%

    :-)

  18. Hookeslaw (fpt)

    Clegg did take part & he should have known better particularly seeing as how Hillsborough is in his constituency.

    When approached after Miliband had apologised, Clegg’s spokesman said he would not be apologising for being associated with the Sun.

  19. BM and CT

    Go on please, name these rump LD seats and lets see if you agree with each other. I’m b*ggered if I could do it.

    Disappointed that ASOH only scored 26%.

  20. Actually I tuned in here wondering if there was a ST YG tweet.

    Toyota leading at Le Mans. You can watch it on
    http://www.24h-lemans.com/live/en/

    and see real heroes at work. They don’t kiss each other either (well at the end at 1500 tomorrow, perhaps a hug).

  21. Bramley,

    Unfortunately for those of us in the Hallam CLP, Hillsborough isn’t part of Clegg’s constituency. David Blunkett wouldn’t be such a fool as to pose with the Sun!

  22. Here are the seats I think the LDs will, on balance, hold in 2015 – some are toss-ups…..
    St Ives (very close)
    N Cornwall
    N Devon
    Torbay
    Yeovil
    Taunton Deane
    Portsmouth S
    Eastleigh
    Lewes
    Eastbourne
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Twickenham
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Sutton & Cheam
    Chippenham
    Bristol W
    Bath
    Thornbury & Yate
    Cheltenham
    Ceredigion
    Brecon & Radnorshire
    Colchester
    N Norfolk
    Southport
    Hazel Grove
    Cheadle
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Leeds NW
    Berwick-on-Tweed (toss-up – could equally be Con gain)
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    NE Fife
    W Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (the last 3 on the basis of severely split anti-LD vote)
    Ross, Skye & Lochaber
    Orkney & Shetland

    That makes 38. Some of these could of course be lost but not many. Equally they have a chance of holding on against both the Tories in some seats I have them down as losing, and against Labour in some (e.g. Redcar, Edinburgh W, Cardiff Central) I have them also down as losing. I think any less than 36 will be a real surprise, personally. That isn’t boring, it’s interesting!

  23. MrN

    Thanks ! I have read that so often these last 2 days that I thought it must be true.

  24. INDY POLL ALERT

    My pro indy family in Aberdeen are getting very excited about poll showing strong pro YES move,

    Any info available?

  25. @Barnaby

    IMO, your belief that the LiDems will retain 38 seats at the 2015 GE is in the realms of cloud cuckoo land. They won’t be completely wiped out, but 15 seats would be more realistic and they are unlikely to retain enough seats to be able to help form a coalition if Lab doesn’t win an OM. They are now loathed for their lack of consistency and I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t anti-LD tactical voting in some constituencies, particularly in those with a high student population, e.g. Cardiff Central, M/c Withington & Sheffield Hallam. Despite the latter nominally being a safe seat, the sitting MP (alias the vicar of Bray) is particularly detested.

    The Welsh poll referred to by ON is interesting, but I’m not convinced that PC is gaining in the polls, and don’t believe the suggested seat distribution that implies that the LDs would gain Cardiff Central (Lab currently hold it in the Senedd) is at all plausible.

  26. Are we not getting YouGov/ST today then, or just being made to wait?

    That ComRes one is quite interesting because generally they have shown a stronger LAB lead than YouGov. Of course it may be that this is is at the lower end of LAB leads on m.o.e but also it does seem that the post-Euro bounce is starting to unwind.

    @Andy JS

    I don’t think 5% UKIP is impossible, though I’d say 10 or so is more likely. UKIP won’t be a major force in more than a handful of seats and, particularly if that means they hardly campaign, that is likely to put voters that say they’ll vote UKIP in polls off. It is also likely that coverage of the Cameron v Miliband contest will relegate UKIP out of the headlines, even if the level of UKIP support and where it is concentrated in fact turns out to be a significant influence on the result.

  27. @newsundayherald: Our splash tomorrow: breakthrough poll has Yes at record high in #indyref and margin closing fast: Yes, 48%, No 52%
    Panelbase for the SNP

    There is also an ICM poll in the Scotland on Sunday. They are being coy about the Yes/No figures. Maybe it didn’t ask the question but if it did since SoS is a No paper I doubt the result is good for No. The h eadline is ‘Social cost of the Referendum’ new poll families split arguments etc. I am not sure what their point is – don’t have a referendum, vote the way your Dad tells you. But the story will run STV Scotland Tonight have been asking for families that are split to appear on their show.

  28. Oldnat,

    Interesting. As in Scotland, UKIP seem to be doing better in Celtic Britain than anyone could reasonably expect (given the problems the Tories have in Scotland and Wales) and curiously the only part where they haven’t made any sort of serious advance is Northern Ireland, which in some ways is the most right-wing part of the UK and has a lot of euroscepticism. Yet another interesting phenomenon is that while in Wales the rise in UKIP VI is mirrored by a fall in the Tory vote, their gains in Scotland have been quite different.

    A possible explanation: a lot of the decline in the right-wing vote in Scotland was more due to a dislike of the Tories than a fundamental change in attitudes. Instead, perhaps a number of right-wing Scottish people either stopped voting or turned to the Lib Dems/SNP, and UKIP can now appeal to that sort of voter. Or maybe the right was just much better at turning out to vote in Scotland in 2014? Who knows? At any rate, some more analysis of the 2014 euro elections in Scotland would be interesting, and analogies/contrasts to UKIP in Wales may be useful.

  29. @Couper

    If these polls showing the gap at less than 5 in Indyref are correct then that is very worrying for the unionist cause. The common logic is that during the closing days people will plump for Yes as they throw aside their concerns and go for it in a state of nationalist fervor. If that is indeed going to be the case then Yes already appear to be within range of that late move being enough to win it.

  30. @Bill Patrick

    IMO The UKIP vote in the Euros was an anti-EU vote the area of largest support was in the North East where the fishing industry has been badly effected.

  31. “thought” should be “though”
    I’m amazed that there are not more polls with a 2% Labour lead. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

  32. To correct myself quickly: I was wrong to say that UKIP’s progress in Wales has been at the expense of the Tories. I just looked at the average figures they have at the bottom of that post and noticed that both the Tories and UKIP are up on 2012 and 2013 so far, so the rapid rise of UKIP in Wales must be from somewhere else.

    One does hear a lot about mismanagement of the NHS in Wales, but in general I’m far too ignorant of Welsh politics to comment on why Labour are losing ground literally left, right and centre right (to PC, UKIP, and the Tories) in Wales. Maybe 15 years of Labour in government is too much for some people?

    If UKIP do soak up a lot of the right-wing vote in Scotland and Wales, it adds to the case for a Murdo Fraser-type plan in these countries. Moving more to the centre and going after the Labour/nationalist centre-right voters may be the only way that the Tories can survive losing their monopoly of the harder right in places where their vote is already low.

  33. Couper 2802,

    Interesting. Given that the Scottish political class seems to be more pro-European than the rest of us on average, there may be a gap for UKIP to move into, and for once it would be about their official party mission!

  34. Jack Sheldon
    I suppose if UKIP do target, it is indeed inevitable that the overall percentage will suffer but that won’t matter to them if they achieve a breakthrough (one seat could be claimed as that, but 5 actually would be). The same goes for the LDs, only as they retreat. I will study Barney’s list with great interest, but I must say that it seems rather bullish at this stage. One particular area of doubt for me are the celtic seats, as I have no cultural insight of those.

  35. Thank you Bramley, I thought Clegg had taken part and he was really as hippocritcal as Miliband, but he has fewer Liverpool seats to worry about.

  36. Also, the rise of UKIP in Scotland and Wales (given that it’s not a straight Tory-UKIP switch) really is damning for the Tories. It suggests it wasn’t the message, it was the people and the party delivering it. To go back to some of the research I cited in the previous thread about Scotland: people in Scotland have very similar views on issues to people in England, but vote to the left of England. (All averages, of course.) The pattern of the UKIP rise suggests to me that the problem for the Tories was not that Scotland and Wales are relentlessly left-wing, but that we don’t trust them to govern us well.

  37. I don’t think we should over-think why UKIP are doing well in Wales. It is essentially because parts of Wales are demographically quite similar to parts of England where they have done well (declining ex-industrial areas etc.).

    Scotland is slightly different. I’m not sure there is really a strong groundswell of support up there. In the context of a Euro election where they featured so heavily in the media, and were the only major party of out, they were always likely to pick up some votes.

    In Northern Ireland right-wing voters have the DUP who are strongly Eurosceptic, though not quite committed to out. Plus politics continues to take on a strongly sectarian character with the Tories attempts to break-through in NI also falling on deaf ears.

  38. Jack Sheldon,

    The Tories have been prominent in the Scottish media over the past 20 years. It has not done them much good. Exposure alone just isn’t enough, as comforting an explanation as it may be for some people.

    You may well have a point with Wales.

    I’m sure you’re right about Northern Ireland. The unionist community already has an abundance of hard-right eurosceptic parties, and it’s almost comical to compare UKIP with, say, TUV. I’ll add the obvious point that the nationalist community isn’t going to vote for a party with “UK” in its name, even if things are very crowded on the left for nationalists there. That just leaves those of us from a snooty middle-class background, who (a) tend to be totally disengaged from politics of there, (b) already have Alliance party if we do want to vote for some reason, and (c) could vote for UUP/the Tories/NI21 if Alliance wasn’t attractive for some reason.

  39. @RHuckle: “If there are any more stories such as the passport backlog, then I can see the Tories slipping back a little.”

    Like a prison overcrowding crisis, perhaps.

  40. @Jack Sheldon

    Yes Better Together seem to be panicking. I think everything will be thrown at the Yes movement over the coming weeks.

    There is no point in getting a succession of foreign politicians to tell us how to vote. They obviously thought Obama would be a ‘game changer’ to quote STV news but it made BT look as if they didn’t understand ‘self-determination’ JK Rowling won’t change folk’s minds either – people are going to make up their own minds. The Pope? I don’t think he actually said anything against independence despite the newspaper spin.

    Negative Diversion: Yes is well ahead in the online campaign so BT are running with ‘vile abusive’ Cybernats. It is just nonsense there are abusive folk online but is completely unrelated to the referendum. if people only listened to the BBC and MSM they would be badly informed online there is a variety of views and information.

    This week will be families torn apart by the referendum vote judging by the SoS headline.

    Meanwhile Yes events are going on all round the country with hundreds of folk in attendance. It is quite incredible, I was active for Labour during the 97 election landslide but we never drew crowds like Yes does unless we had Tony Blair and even then I spent days ringing round making sure everyone was going to turn up. These are events with journalist and writers not top politicians.

  41. @DaoDao

    Barnaby’s predictions of LD holds next year are far more likely to be accurate than your own. If you look at the constituency pages of this site, you will discover that Barnaby has many years of experience campaigning and studying election results. He also lives in a seat that was LD held until 2010 and is very unlikely to be won by them next year. He and a number of other regulars have displayed a far better understanding of what is likely to happen to the LDs next year than your prediction of 15 seats at best for them!

  42. Post independence (if it happens ) Labour will move sharply left. The foot soldiers of Scottish Labour are incredibly left wing. Interesting dilemma for SNP they are not going to be able to outflank Labour on the left, they might move to the right but Meanwhile, the Scottish Cons have been changing their tune over the last few days. Ruth Davidson has said she would support keeping the pound and currency union. Annabel Goldie said of course Scotland would stay in the EU. I am wondering if the Scots Tories are seeing some benefit out of a Yes vote . Maybe the only way to revive their fortunes in Scotland.

  43. Couper2802,

    I think that the political frontiers of Scotland would change dramatically as a result of an Aye vote.

    Labour in particular would almost certainly have to change fundamentally, because the trade union movement plans to try to keep going on a Britain-wide scale regardless, and it would hardly be plausible for a party to be based around a Britain-wide institution in an independent Scotland. Quite WHAT SLAB would do is hard to say, because they would have a lot of interesting options, ranging from just a name/organisational change to merging with the left of the SNP or with the Lib Dems to form a new party.

    For the Tories, you may well be right, but it’s hard to say. Some people have become emotionally invested in independence largely because of the alleged prospect of having left-wing governments forever, and there would be opportunities to make the environment extremely hostile to the Tories/UKIP e.g. through creating a hard-to-revise constitution with ample left-wing content and potraying an Aye win as a fundamentally social democratic/socialist victory such that the right becomes defined as essentially English (even more than it already is in Scotland).

  44. Bill Patrick @ Couper2802

    Given the dominance of two parties within Scotland’s 6 party system (if we still include the LDs) then both trying to occupy what they see as Scotland’s middle ground seems most likely.

    Lab will be freed from trying to accommodate what they see as the middle ground of England (or South England, or whatever).

    I’ve never been convinced that Scotland is “anti-right wing”. The toxicity of the Tories, and now the LDs, seems to be much more related to a perception of them as being London/Westminster/(other epithet) parties, who no longer represent the interests of their “natural” supporters in Scotland.

    So a repositioning of many professional politicians and their supporters to ensure the continuation of their professional political life would seem probable.

  45. Thanks Anthony!

  46. ICM indyref poll

    With Don’t Knows excluded, it works out as –

    Yes 45% (+3)
    No 55% (-3)

  47. @Theuniondivvie: Scotsman ICM – Yes 36% (+2), No 43% (-3), DK 21% (+1).

    Yes closing in this poll as well I am guessing 46:54 excluding don’t knows

  48. Couper2802

    Survation: Yes 47 No 53. Panelbase Yes 48 No 52. ICM Yes 45 No 55

    Of course, none of these may have polling methodology for the indyref correct, but all show an increase in the Yes vote share.

  49. Barnaby Marder

    You suggest that the LDs would continue to hold
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    NE Fife
    W Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (the last 3 on the basis of severely split anti-LD vote)
    Ross, Skye & Lochaber
    Orkney & Shetland

    Yet Scottish polling suggests that they would only continue to hold Orkney & Shetland plus Charlie Kennedy’s seat (Charlie would be elected for any Highland constituency whether he stood for the LDs or no party at all).

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