There are two polls in this morning’s papers. The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 19%(nc). Charges are from their pre-European election poll, so show the sort of increase in the Labour lead we’ve seen in other polls since the European election.

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll is here and also has a four point Labour lead: CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%.


241 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Opinium polls”

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  1. @ Crossbat 11,

    I find scrolling immensely helpful in these circumstances. Also for dealing with meta-commentary about how such-and-such a topic is boring or how the site is dominated by partisans of [the other side], explanations about how all the parties are identical except [your favourite party], and posts about football.

    @ Mr. Nameless,

    Not to worry, we’re due an Ashcroft poll. That should be exciting, I’m expecting a Labour lead somewhere in the range of -5 to +15.

    @ Catmanjeff,

    They are technically correct about that though, unless you live in a safe seat or in Brighton. FPTP offers people a lovely choice of casting a tactical vote and feeling dirty afterward or voting with their hearts and feeling guilty instead.

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  2. Whatever one’s opinion, we are in a very interesting political climate. People are saying they will vote Green even if it lets the Tories in hence Labour’s lacklustre performance and the opposite is true with UKIP. If the UKIP bubble bursts, it could be very bad for Labour indeed, though until the Greens start averaging 15% in the polls, they could probably ignore it like the Tories tried up until last summer.

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  3. @ Ben Foley (8.19)

    I think you have misunderstood Alec’s comment. IIRC Alec is actually a Green – at least he used to have a green background when they were allowed on this site.

    I believe that he was jokingly referring to the fact that other contributors were referring to “vote” in the singular rather than in the plural.

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  4. and my partner not happy with being called a pup Paul.

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  5. Dave, if everything else was equal, a sample size that would give +/- 3% at a 50% response distribution (for parties near 50%) will give +/- 1.3% at a 5% response distribution (95% confidence interval held constant).

    However, as you point out, there may be methodological issues too.

    I wish Greens _were_ benefitting from more attention now their support is similar to that of a party in government, but away from this site, the only ways I have noticed that are in connection to Newark and/or Euros.

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  6. @ NeilA

    ‘I think Blair used the wrong word. Complete adherence to market forces, and complete disregard for them, are not “parties” but purified forms of extreme opinions.
    Do the left really believe there is no role for market forces of any kind under any circumstances? Do the right really believe that the market, totally unfettered, can provide everything humanity needs? Only a handful at either end of the spectrum truly believe either of those things.’
    ————————————————————————

    Are Francis Maude and Oliver Letwin et al extremists? Both have advocated publicly that all public services should be privatised .. and they are by no means the only ones in the parliamentary Conservative Party. So Yes – many on the right really do believe that the market, totally unfettered, can provide everything humanity needs, although their definition of humanity’s needs are not necessarily my own. There was even a proposal to sell off our roads to the Chinese.

    As you say, this ideological position does not rule out all state intervention. There is a commitment to removing any impediment to the activity of the market and there has been a huge body of legislation to ensure that. For example, George Osborne has rewritten much of the rules surrounding tax havens to legalise what was previously deemed unacceptable. The proposal to remove property rights to facilitate Fracking under individuals’ houses is a more current issue.

    However, the most significant move of the Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition is to push for the EU-US trade agreement which is little about trade but which, together with the TransPacific Partnership and TISA, is intended to harmonise regulations with the US, across a vast trading global block (including all but China). The Investor State Dispute Settlement clause sets up a corporate tribunal to arbitrate on whether a trading corporation has been unfairly prevented from profiting by
    government legislation.

    There are many examples under existing trade deals of a private company suing governments for preventing a ‘free market’. Instances include a Swedish company currently suing the German govt for deciding to close down all their nuclear plants. Monsanto is particularly supportive of the trade deals (TTIP/TAFTA) because the EU has consistently voted against GM crops. The Pharmaceutical companies similarly wish to close down the production of generic medicines and double the period of patents. There is also an array of measures to limit the internet. According to Lori Wallach, War on Want etc, the removal of ‘barriers to trade’ is actually about the removal of much of employment and environmental legislation.

    For the NHS, the Implementation of TTIP would mean that each private health provider would be enabled to sue any government that attempted to take services back into democratic ownership. Ditto the railways and energy companies. The decision-making of future governments would thus be severely curtailed.

    This is not fantastical.. there are many examples of conservative spokespeople saying that the NHS will not exist within the decade. In fact, recent releases of Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet papers revealed precisely these intentions but it was recognised that the UK public was not ready for such a radical restructuring and a ‘boiling frogs’ approach was adopted. IE gradually turn up the heat underneath the pan.

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  7. The Labour party at prayer is so transparent.

    If Newark is the Ukip bubble bursting, roll on the GE because there are plenty of majorities vulnerable to this kind of swing.

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  8. @ Mt Beeswax

    But you can’t extrapolate a GE swing from a by-election swing. They’re completely different beasts.

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  9. @Spearmint

    @ Catmanjeff,

    They are technically correct about that though, unless you live in a safe seat or in Brighton. FPTP offers people a lovely choice of casting a tactical vote and feeling dirty afterward or voting with their hearts and feeling guilty instead.

    Personally I always vote for the party I want to win. I will not vote tactically.

    I will never feel guilty about that.

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  10. “For the NHS, the Implementation of TTIP would mean that each private health provider would be enabled to sue any government that attempted to take services back into democratic ownership.”

    The TTIP is depressing indeed, for anyone who believes democracy should not be usurped by corporate interests. But that is probably another topic for another discussion board.

    I’d be interested to see some polling on the TTIP (or rather, the elements which form it, I suspect they would be deeply unpopular).

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  11. @catmanjeff

    “Personally I always vote for the party I want to win. I will not vote tactically.
    I will never feel guilty about that.”

    Snap. I have never voted “tactically.”

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  12. @Oldnat

    “For supporters of minor parties who are little different from the biggest parties (Lib-Dems, I’m talking to you) it’s difficult to imagine any possible circumstances in which they could create/find a game-changer that would allow them more than becoming a minor coalition partner – then suffering the consequences of that.”

    ———

    I’m not sure you’ve been reading my posts because I gave several examples of game-changers – oil (and Thatch/Westminster/Devolution) for SNP, Oil crisis/Foot for Libs/SDP (and MPs prepared to defect)… immigration for UKip… things which let them into the game beyond just a few percent at the margin… in the case of SNP the changes allowed them to dominate.

    Labour themselves benefitted from the Liberal implosion but also found their own game changer – the Trade Unions. This may have been an international idea, but Labour seized upon it and built it into their party structure. The environmental movement may yet grow further in stature, though it may need a more sobering event.

    There seems perhaps a desire to ascribe things to purely international movements… which, one supposes, might seem more appealing than, say, wanting to run off with the oil…

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  13. missis minty

    “posts about football.”

    Just scrolling through the rubbish posts quickly and was pleased to see you’re interested in footy.

    D’you think the Arsenal lads should be picked for the first game or would they be better coming off the bench?

    Its going to be a vital first match against the Italians don’t you think?

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  14. @JOHN PILGRIM

    AW ” John Pilgrim Your comment is awaiting moderation. ”

    Pourquoi?

    ————

    Because you used the word “underly-ing” in your post. Twice. Automod will screen out any post containing words that contain words such as li-e, li-ar, ly-ing etc.

    Having mentioned this myself numerous times, along with others it is clear that not everyone reads my posts. Even the ones about Thorium!!

    So what IS the Green position on Thorium? Are they in favour, or scientifically challenged or summat…

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  15. “a ‘boiling frogs’ approach was adopted. IE gradually turn up the heat underneath the pan.”

    Shame on you Sue.

    [Mind you, they’re tricky little buggers to stun first.]

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  16. @JIM JAM

    “I learnt many years go that ‘I hear what you say’ ‘you have a point’ ‘I understand’ etc are just deflectors.”

    ——

    You could try mentioning Thorium… much more efficient….

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  17. @ Spearmint

    “Not to worry, we’re due an Ashcroft poll. That should be exciting, I’m expecting a Labour lead somewhere in the range of -5 to +15.”

    In my humble opinion you should have added the caveat “barring an outlier”

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  18. Apologies Paul (smiley thing)

    … and to Carfew for not mentioning Thorium and moon habitation…

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  19. DRMIBBLES

    ‘I’d be interested to see some polling on the TTIP (or rather, the elements which form it, I suspect they would be deeply unpopular).’

    I agree. I believe polling indicates 65+% in favour of taking the Railways and Energy production back into democratic ownership, including a surprisingly high percentage amongst Conservative voters… and under the terms of TTIP, it would be almost impossible for any government to do without triggering a trade dispute which would be decided by an unelected panel of corporate lawyers empowered to overrule sovereign government policy.

    Of course, the secrecy of the negotiations and the paucity of discussion in the MSM means that only online political obsessives are likely to know anything about it.

    As you say, a discussion about the implications for democracy are for another place. My reason for raising the topic was to underline the way in the polls measure the success of the different political parties’ PR rather than being a simple reflection of left/right values in the UK.

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  20. AW
    Someone has entered a website on my UKPR site ID which is not mine and which appears to be mischievous. Can that happen and how do I remove it?

    [I don’t think it can happen – I think the info is only stored as a cookie on your own computer, so just delete it before you submit your next comment and it should go away – AW]

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  21. Dave & Ben,

    I think the MOE’s reported by all polling companies are totally incorrect. They appear to be calculated based on methods apropriate for Simple Random Sampling, which is not possible for taking a poll in the UK. Instead we should be looking at methods for cluster sampling, which is much more difficult and would give much larger standard deviations. Further as support for parties becomes more localised (eg fortress LD policy), unless the polling companies make efforts to design their samples to accomodate, the MOE will go up.

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  22. @JIMR @ Ben F
    Thanks for your responses. I had a longer response for Ben, but now it needs modifying and my lunch is going cold!

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  23. @SYZYGY

    “… and to Carfew for not mentioning Thorium and moon habitation…”

    ———–

    Oh my researches have moved beyond the Moon, to trips to Mars, and more recently, what’s required for interstellar travel. I doubt its impact on VI in the near future however. (Tories have been voicing an interest in backing a spaceport though. Imagine that, our own spaceport…)

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  24. Re Birmingham Schools issue

    If Labour parrots the factoid of the promotion or tolerance by schools in Birmingham of extremism without any proof of anything other than the refusal of these schools to sign up to the “Prevent” strategy, it will lose large numbers of Muslim votes.

    And I for one will not vote for them next year.

    The public expects opposition to hold the executive to account. Labour is not doing that on this issue. They are taking as fact the unsigned “Trojan Horse” letter (largely believed to be fake), and that these schools were somehow complicit in extremism or worse terrorism when this is wholly untrue.

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  25. Carfrew

    Time for some hopefully scientifically informed philosophy. Like Ole Bill in the WW1 trench, ‘we’re ‘ere because we’re ‘ere. This is not a wonder, it’s the same reason why there is no life (possibly any more) on Mars or ever was on Mercury. It’s called evolution.

    If there is a parallel goldilocks world somewhere in the universe (probably many millions of them of course), they don’t need us to visit because our look-alikes are already there (or will be or have been) and thus don’t need our presence.

    Going to settle on Mars is like building plastic domes in Cornwall or aquariums in zoos. Barmy.

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  26. @Howard

    Yes, we know Howie, you consider many, many things pointless. Especially since the demise of LDs. But if we find out a great big asteroid is coming our way, or worse, a neutron star, some people are going to quite like the idea of escaping to some place else…

    This is aside from the technological spin-offs and simply finding out what’s out there, etc. And having more exciting things to spend our time discussing than any deleterious impact of Clegg’s pupil premium on school funding etc…

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  27. Carfrew , Howard.
    Time travellers report the existence of a spaceport near Runcorn !

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  28. RIP Reg.

    I can’t say I always agreed with him, but he was a right character* and his passing is a loss to us all.

    No man is an island, and all that, as Reg himself might have said.

    [*Or should that be ‘right wing’ character?]

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  29. There’s a space station here in Brentford.
    I think it does storage.
    Storage in space will likely attract VAT I would think.

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  30. Sad to see Rik Mayall has died at the ridiculously young age of 56.

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  31. Guymonde
    I didn’t say I believed ‘em , just that is what has been said by people claiming to be Time travellers.

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  32. Ashcroft:

    CON 28%+3
    LAB 32% -2
    LD 8% +2
    UKIP 17% -2

    Still a very high UKIP share. Also still too early in the Ashcroft sequence to identify much of a trend.

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  33. @EWEN LIGHTFOOT

    “Carfrew , Howard. Time travellers report the existence of a spaceport near Runcorn”

    ———-

    I don’t suppose they happened to know the results of the next GE? ‘Cos that might put a few minds at rest. Or not, depending…

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  34. SYZYGY

    Thanks Sue for such a detailed post on a subject of interest I knew little about. If your right, and you certainly come across as someone who has looked into the subject carefully then I have to say I am likely to be very supportiveof the trade deals (TTIP/TAFTA).

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  35. @GUYMONDE

    “There’s a space station here in Brentford. I think it does storage. Storage in space will likely attract VAT I would think.”

    ————–

    Yes, we are veering into the realms of interplanetary politics. Taxation on Mars might lead to an independence movement. If they discover an abundance of some precious substance on Mars, that might lead to a clamour to seceed, and Nationalism on Mars takes root. Or Planetism. After devolution, the MPP might become the dominant party on Mars!!

    Then once peeps think about life outside a strong interplanetary currency, the possibility of capital flight, doubts about joining the Solar System Union…

    Dunno if Ashcroft has prepared for conducting polling on Mars, but AW could be getting measured for a space suit just in case…

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  36. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Thank you for validating my valiant attempt to be neutral. However, I am not sure that your fellow libertarians all take such a sanguine view of TTIP .. but I suppose that your doing your own thing is in itself, very libertarian.

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  37. New Fred

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  38. There IS a clear trend in the Ashcroft polls- the Greens on 7% and the LDs on 6-8%.

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  39. CB11
    I hope you realise that to many of us more simple people on this site Reg is more real than Nigel. I take leave to doubt your right to annihilate the one without demolishing the other.

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  40. Moreover, I intend to enter him on the list as my favoured representative of the party of protest which I and others of like mind and disposition are proposing to form: SROBOG: the Self-Righteous Opinionated and Boring Old Geysers Party.

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