This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%. Seventeen percent for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown since May 2013, also in the aftermath of a strong performance for UKIP at the ballot box. Looking at the poll in the context of the Lord Ashcroft and Populus polls yesterday it looks to me as if Labour’s lead may have opened up a bit in the aftermath of the European elections as UKIP get a boost from their strong performance. If last year is any guide, we should expect UKIP support to subside a bit after the immediate impact of the election success fades from people’s minds, but time will tell where it settles at. Tabs for the YouGov poll are here.

Yesterday there was also a new Scottish referendum poll from Ipsos MORI. Their topline voting intention figures were YES 36%(+4), NO 54%(-3) – changes are since MORI’s last quarterly poll. A movement towards YES, though MORI generally show one of the largest leads for NO, so even with that movement it leaves NO a chunky lead. Full details are here.


574 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 36, LD 8, UKIP 17”

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  1. Hmm, the lead keeps widening – getting exciting again

  2. When undecided voters are removed from the figures, 40% of those certain to vote would vote Yes while 60% would vote No.

    Both sides in the debate will be encouraged that the level of public interest in the referendum appears to be growing; over 8 in 10 (82%) tell us that they are certain to vote in the referendum, an increase of 4 percentage points from February. This growth in interest appears to be most striking among the youngest voters, aged 16-24, two-thirds (66%) of whom say that they are absolutely certain to vote in September, up 10 points.

    A closer look at the poll reveals positive and negative messages for both side of the debate. The Yes campaign appears to have had the most positive impact among male voters who are now split equally in support for the independence and the union but have made little impact in persuading women, with 28% of certain female voters backing independence. And while support for independence in Scotland’s most deprived areas has fallen to 41% the Yes campaign will be heartened that their message has gained more traction in the most affluent neighbourhoods
    ___________

    Well reading through all of that my conclusion is that the final result is going to be very close but the biggest winner looks like being turnout.

  3. “CON 30%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%”

    “Looking at the poll in the context of the Lord Ashcroft and Populus polls yesterday it looks to me as if Labour’s lead may have opened up a bit in the aftermath of the European elections as UKIP get a boost from their strong performance. If last year is any guide, we should expect UKIP support to subside a bit after the immediate impact of the election success fades from people’s minds, but time will tell where it settles at”
    ______

    If UKIP do well in the up coming by-election then the Kipper Boost might last a little bit longer than some people had expected.

  4. @Adam Kennedy

    “Hmm, the lead keeps widening – getting exciting again”

    The No lead or the Labour lead? :-)

    On the Scottish Independence front, a NO lead of 18% with only three months to go before the Referendum looks unbridgeable to me, despite the reduction in the NO lead. This is narrowing in the sense of massive becoming just very big!

    As for the national opinion polls, I’m keeping my eye on this melting Tory VI and, notwithstanding a correction from Anthony, I think 30% is the lowest the Tories have scored in a YouGov poll for a very, very long time. YouGov is usually the kindest pollster for both Labour and the Tories and 30% must be spine-chilling stuff for Tory strategists desperately hoping for some lift off and momentum from the improving economy.

    With the clock ticking down on the the GE in 11 months time, this is not a good time for the main governing party to be sliding backwards in the polls.

  5. As predicted the Labour lead has grown again. No serious electoral decision has to be made and so expect the lead to expand to around 8%.

  6. @ Crossbat 11,

    With the clock ticking down on the the GE in 11 months time, this is not a good time for the main governing party to be sliding backwards in the polls.

    Or the other governing party, for that matter.

    What’s weird to me is that the Tory -> Ukip migration always takes place after the May election. Looking back on last year you see the same pattern, although I didn’t notice at the time.

    Last year I assumed it was a “Can win here!” thing, with Ukip’s good local election result making them seem like a more viable choice for a Westminster vote. But this year everyone knew they were going to do well in the Euro elections, and they’ve been a ubiquitous media presence for months. It can’t be increased exposure.

    The timing of the Labour -> Greenkip migration makes sense- drift away from Labour prior to the European elections due to misreading the question or thinking fond thoughts about the Greens or Ukip, drift back after. But what could possibly have changed in the minds of Tory voters after the election to shift their VI?

  7. Government approval down four to -27 in today’s poll. We’ll see if that continues but why would it be dropping? Disaffected LDs?

  8. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Are there enough to make a difference? My guess is it’s correlated with Tory -> Ukip switching- when they swap parties they stop saying they approve of the government.

  9. Spearmint,

    2% of responses need to change from approve to disapprove for that change, so some are probably post-election LD blues, some are probably former Tories gone over to UKIP.

    It could be salience of immigration issues has Tories noticing an awful lot of foreigners and disapproving, it could be indicative of a drop in living standards or it could be random variation. Hard to know until we get a trend.

  10. @Spearmint
    The post-election UKIP boost is a puzzle. Perhaps we should call this group Closet Kippers, because they stay hidden until they can get lost in the crowd.

  11. Anthony – Please could we have UKIP included on the opinion poll graph? At the moment it’s only Con / Lab / Lib but plotting UKIP’s changes over time would be interesting, especially as they’re over twice as popular as LibDems now.

  12. @ Howard

    You asked me whether the C2DE VI was more volatile than the ABC1. My impression, & it’s no more than that, is no. The split has a stable average of say 41/42% Lab, 28/29% Tory. Today was a little out of line at 40/25; Sunday more typical at 41/27. The point is that the major shift to Lab in this respect is an important if ignored change in VI since 2010.

  13. @Statgeek

    I am not sure we can have much certainty when it is a referendum. One reason is I have no idea how they weigh these polls because past vote is not really relevant. If we look at the AV referendum six months before FPTP was on 22, three months before 30, eve of poll 66.

  14. All parties are under pressure from the unabated rise of UKIP – but some more than others. In recent times we’ve had GEs in the following year to EU elections, and during these times Labour have done a lot better in the GE than the EU election preceeding it. Conservatives also did a bit better, but nowhere near as much improvement. UKIP tended to fade.

    Something tells me with them on 17%, this may no longer be the case. Is it because they are now closer to being considered a mainstream alternative? All this attention will aid their rise.

  15. Interesting that even including a growing UKIP fan base the number in favour of remaining in the EU appears to be increasing and continues to exceed that of those in favour of leaving.

    If the UKIP percentage is removed the majority in favour of the EU and that EU membership is both good for employment and good for the UK’s international influence is actually quite substantial.

    I wonder what precisely the 23%of UKIP supporters who think the UK would be worse off or no better off by leaving the EU are actually supporting?

  16. Although I welcome the apparent increase in the Labour lead across the polls since the Euro-Election I have to admit I find it a bit of a puzzle. I am not aware of anything that either Cameron or Miliband or their respective teams have done since last week to create such a shift in the polls. What seems to be happening “in the churn” so to speak, is that UKIP seem to be strengthening their Westminster VI at the expense of the Conservatives, whilst Red Kippers, Greens etc must be drifting back slightly to Labour?

    The question must be – but why? And why now?

  17. @Tony Dean

    “but why? And why now?”

    If we accept the hypothesis that many of those polled were answering a Euro question even if the question asked was about the GE – and that seems pretty likely to me – then with the Euros out of the way, those who protest in a PR election where the impact of the outcome is pretty obscure, would quite likely drift back ‘home’, though I would have expected the drift to be pretty leisurely.

    I suppose an alternative view might be that consistent exposure of UKIP and the fact that they have had some success, and that that success is being bigged up, is causing people to have a proper look and recoil. I like that idea, but I suspect it’s wishful thinking.

  18. Perhaps the drift back from UKIP to Lab is a continuance of drift that was seemingly discernible in the week or so preceding the EU and local elections? Lab did start being (or continued to be) strongly critical of NF and UKIP. Perhaps it’s just MoE?

  19. Seems fairly straightforward to me. UKIP’s Labour Euro supporters have returned to their party but UKIP’s Tory ones haven’t. UKIP are basically anti-Europe and right-wing. In the Euros they attract the anti-EU vote, which is cross-party, and for Westminster they attract the right-wing vote, which is Tory.

  20. Sorry to be a pedant, but I assume the Scottish flag at the top of this thread is a mistake. I thought the Tories were a bit high for a Scottish poll!

  21. Why now?

    My guess is that the media promotion of Farage has made him the leader of the right rather than DC, so DC is somewhat diminished. Voters perceive a Lab v UKIP fight pushing the unfaithful Labour voters back to Labour.

  22. @Andy JS – The Saltire refers to the Independence referendum poll in the second paragraph.

  23. At the last election, there seemed to be in the dying days a rush of sceptical tribal Labour voters deciding to turn out for Labour against a threatened Conservative majority. Certainly the final result in 2010 was surprisingly good for Labour, given the polling and the national environment. I wonder if we could see such a phenomenon again.

  24. Spearmint

    What’s weird to me is that the Tory -> Ukip migration always takes place after the May election. Looking back on last year you see the same pattern, although I didn’t notice at the time.

    The same thing happened with UKIP’s vote in 2009 as well, with the rise in Westminster VI (from 3% to 8%) coming after the election as far as one can tell (obviously polls were much less in frequent in those ancient times). What it may be is that those who have actually cast a vote for UKIP (at the Euros or the Locals) decide to validate their choice by making it consistent.

    It may not last for long of course, though certainly in this Parliament it has always declined to a level slightly higher than they had before the jump. And the voters who are sticking after this wave may be those who voted UKIP a few times in the past and go back to the Conservatives more reluctantly each time.

    There’s always been the suspicion that Labour to UKIP defectors tend to be the first back on a last-in-first-out principle. But it could also be that as UKIP’s policies get decided they will tend to alienate some of those not from the traditionalist wing of the Tory Party. To pick an obvious example, reintroducing grammar schools may go down well with the Daily Telegraph crowd, but many UKIP supporters may be the products of secondary moderns and have less misty-eyed views of their schooldays.

  25. Just caught up on the discussion on the last thread about Grammar schools and to be honest I think both sides of the discussion are showing their age a bit!

    The education system is totally different from what it was in the 1970’s where comprehensives were often a poor environment for learning. The modern secondary or high school has a much better record on discipline, child safeguarding etc and, with a higher emphasis on results I think it is a largely historical argument of whether having Grammar schools was good or not (the argument about Grammar schools being given an unfair advantage based on an exam at 11 against encouraging bright children.)

    The point is that nowadays there is streaming and opportunities for “brighter” pupils in the standard secondary and a much better environment for learning for everyone with a general zero tolerance for bullying or classroom disruption. So needing a grammar school to produce that environment is no longer necessary either for “working class” or “middle class”.

    I’m not saying there still aren’t problems within individual schools or in sets for the most disruptive pupils or some bad teachers but very rarely is it likely to hinder educational development.

    Also there is now a growing evidence to suggest that even a classroom of mixed abilities does not hold back the brighter pupils and can actually pull up the weaker ones.

  26. Depressing stuff from our POV. The UKIP threat to Labour doesn’t seem to be manifesting itself in GE voting intention and the Clegg episode allowed Miliband to get away with moderate election results.

  27. If we do get 80%+ turnout in September how close will that be to a post war record for a UK vote. I think 84% was the record in 1950,

    Peter.

  28. “…the Clegg episode allowed Miliband to get away with moderate election results.”

    here’s my take…

    the Clegg episode allowed Cameron to get away with bad election results.

  29. Pressman

    “Depressing stuff from our POV. The UKIP threat to Labour doesn’t seem to be manifesting itself in GE voting intention and the Clegg episode allowed Miliband to get away with moderate election results.”

    No need to be depressed. I have every confidence that on current showing NI will play a big part in increasing Labour’s lead as we approach the GE.

  30. I’ve seen no mention above of the Greens, on 5% in this poll. Again, a post-Euro boost that, again, will be difficult to sustain.

    If, say, we eventually get back to something like UKIP on 10% and Greens on 2% by the time the GE is looming, I suggest that as a consequence the Conservatives might be up 5% on their present level, Labour up 3% and the LDs up 2%.

  31. I rather enjoy following the polls without needing a view continually to 2015 (nearly a year ‘hence’). We could have more than one deus ex machina event long before then. It’s wishing your life away, and it simply isn’t that important who wins that election anyway. Look back over the last 10 years and tell me what was important. It was of course no election result, but the debacle of Lehman Brothers, Fanny Mac and Fanny Mae, gamblers in Wall St , our City et al. Extreme weather events are coming hard up on the rails.

  32. ah… poor pressman.

    Still sure your tabloid dogs are going to tear into milliband and deliver a tory victory?

  33. Phil – if Labour gain any more votes than current polls are suggesting, they are extremely unlikely to be beaten in the general election.

  34. @GuyMonde
    Love the Kipper Closet, especially that it is galvanised (presumably to stop it being affected by Wets or going Red with rust).

    My remark wasn’t entirely jocular though. I wonder if Closet Kippers are a breed related to Shy Tories. While UKIP look unelectable they are reluctant to admit their preference; when UKIP are cracking open the Krug they are bolder.

    In a way this matches my feelings about UKIP’s quiet voter base ( as opposed to its vocal membership) – they are conservative, cautious, don’t like change much, don’t really want to make a fuss but fel they have a grievance.

  35. Phil – agree with the UKIP back to 10% (I think even lower but use 10% for for safety) plus other others including Greens down to 6% from 9 we have 10% worth of VI to distribute.

    Reckon Con-Lab lift of 3% ish but both up.

    Which is why I think Lab and Con both over 35% at the GE and LD 13-15%.
    Or 85% ish between them.

    Pressman gets some stick on here but ‘moderate’ results for Labour is probably right.

    Certainly the EM crisis stuff was way off mark.

  36. @Howard

    “Look back over the last 10 years and tell me what was important. It was of course no election result, but the debacle of Lehman Brothers, Fanny Mac and Fanny Mae, gamblers in Wall St , our City et al.”

    I don’t buy the “Labour’s mess” line either.

    To be fair, your man Cable did see it coming.

    More generally, I wasn’t making a prediction for 2015, more just trying to judge where we might be starting from, before anything else crops up.

  37. “The UKIP threat to Labour doesn’t seem to be manifesting itself in GE voting intention ”
    ———————-
    Dunno where you got that idea from in the first place. YG tables which refer to 2010 votes have long since shown that for every 6 votes now going to UKIP, 3 came from Cons, 2 from LD and 1 from Lab.

    If you compare YG crossbreaks today with previous weeks it seems that a sizeable number of over 60s in CDs have switched to UKIP. Elderly working class tories moving to UKIP. As a result the normally healthy Con lead among over 60s is now level pegging, and this was the most favorable group for blues. This is where the real ‘threat’ is.

  38. Good Afternoon from sunny Bournemouth.
    (west Southbourne ward)
    PETER:
    Feb 50 turnout was 83.9%
    October 51 turnout was 82.6%

    Political days.

  39. “What’s weird to me is that the Tory -> Ukip migration always takes place after the May election. ”

    Birds do the same thing only they bugger off to Africa. Or am I thinking of elephants?

    Anyway, I’ve seen nothing over the past few months to make me think my Labour outright majority prediction is at great risk.

  40. The worry for the Tories is that Tory-Ukip voters go that way and stay as they are can’t stand Cameron and have no faith in his ability to negotiate anything with the EU (and thats not the point anyway)….but on the other hand Labour-UKIP voters make their protest but are quite willing to come back , particularly if they accept the line that voting UKIP will get a more right wing version of the Tories anyway.

    I still think ‘its the economy stupid’ and whether Cameron can translate the media view of the economy (everything is getting better don’t you know) with what the electorate is actually feeling and believing. At the moment that isnt shifting but there’s all to play for yet.

  41. @CHRISLANE1945

    Although those were both before the voting age was reduced to 18 (in 1970). The highest since then is 78.8% in Feb. 1974 but we still managed 77.7% in 1992.

  42. ROGER H.
    I remember Feb 28th 74, so well.
    Had just left school and gone to Eccles/Salford, lived in a house with loads of anti Labour monks!
    The result shock was marvellous.

    An appalling Government followed.

  43. @Spearmint – “But what could possibly have changed in the minds of Tory voters after the election to shift their VI?”

    I suspect it’s credibility. UKIP got coverage, and it then turned to Westminster. They haven’t quite crossed the rubicon such that they are routinely viewed as one of the big parties, but they’ve certainly left disparate groups like the Greens and Respect behind.

    As I suspected, Labour defectors may have a higher resistance to staying with UKIP than Tory ones, and seeing UKIP ‘win’ is potentially a reason for more Tory switchers.

    Scotland – looks a bit interesting, all of a sudden. Cameron’s tax plan was an interesting move. The SNP response was not unexpected, but appeared a bit confused. It’s hard to grumble about getting more powers, but obviously they need to be negative about further devolution.

    The momentum does seem to have gone a bit flat for Yes at present.

  44. The EU commission might be a good one to watch. BBC reported this morning that the Germans are backing Junkers for the top job, in an apparent slap in the face for Cameron. There seems to be little sympathy left for DC within the CDU.

    Either he told Merkel appointing Junkers could see UK exit, or he didn’t. If the former, it’s beginning to look like a public humiliation, which Farage will love, and if the latter, it’s appalling news management.

    Personally, I think it was the wrong battle to fight. Pick fights on policy, not personnel. That way you have a better chance to win friends and allies.

    There was a point when Cameron did indeed appear to have won over quite a few sympathetic allies in the EU, but Merkel was always central to his renegotiation strategy. If she is starting to ease away from his reform agenda, there could well be plenty of flames for the Kippers to fan.

  45. Andy JS

    “Sorry to be a pedant, but I assume the Scottish flag at the top of this thread is a mistake. I thought the Tories were a bit high for a Scottish poll”
    ______________

    I think Mr Wells has a Scottish Granny.. ;-)

  46. ALEC

    It’s not so much about being negative on more powers from the YES side it’s just all a bit confusing.

    Each of the main pro union parties plus the Lib/Dems are all offering more powers but are also offering different powers from each other.

    Better Together have an identity crises, do they offer Tory powers, Labour powers or Lib/dem powers?

    Scotland could vote no and back Labour’s proposals but end up with another Tory government implementing their version of more powers.

    Still it’s going to be very close regardless who wins.

  47. Jean-Claude Junker’s performance in the various leadership debates can only be described as deadpan…he’s now characterised attempts to block his candidacy as “blackmail”.

    If Cameron’s MEPs were within the EPP he would be on a stonger footing, but from a fringe grouping these sort of demands are being viewed as undemocratic… arguing that the electorate has sent a clear anti-integrationist message could be the case within the UK, but it dosen’t make any kind of sense in the EU context.

    Added to that Conservative MEPs have a mind of their own and some of them appear to be doing their best to stir up problems for Merkel with the AfD.

  48. Hey JOE,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    This is very illustrative, not all pollsters prompt for Ukip so tend to underestimate them.

    The chart is not updated very regularly so you are looking at GE until last month.

  49. Is there a shy UKIP effect?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/ukip-vote-croydon-labour-conservatives

    “When we were canvassing nobody was saying they were for Ukip because it’s still a guilty secret,” said Fisher. “But the level of support has come out today”

    In the run up to the May elections the press were all over UKIP with negative stories. Amazingly the coverage has turned on its head after the results were announced, and it now seems to be OK to be anti immigrant. (at least in the Daily Mail and a few others of that ilk)

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