This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%. Seventeen percent for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown since May 2013, also in the aftermath of a strong performance for UKIP at the ballot box. Looking at the poll in the context of the Lord Ashcroft and Populus polls yesterday it looks to me as if Labour’s lead may have opened up a bit in the aftermath of the European elections as UKIP get a boost from their strong performance. If last year is any guide, we should expect UKIP support to subside a bit after the immediate impact of the election success fades from people’s minds, but time will tell where it settles at. Tabs for the YouGov poll are here.
Yesterday there was also a new Scottish referendum poll from Ipsos MORI. Their topline voting intention figures were YES 36%(+4), NO 54%(-3) – changes are since MORI’s last quarterly poll. A movement towards YES, though MORI generally show one of the largest leads for NO, so even with that movement it leaves NO a chunky lead. Full details are here.