Tomorrow’s Sun has a Survation poll of Newark, ahead of the by-election next week. Topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 36%(-18), LAB 27%(+5), LD 5%(-15), UKIP 28%(+24). This is the first poll we’ve had of Newark, and unless Lord Ashcroft also has one in the works it’s probably the only one.

A swing of 21 points from the Conservatives to UKIP would be a storming great swing, but the fact remains that Patrick Mercer had a pretty hefty majority at the last election, so even a swing of that size leaves the Conservatives 8 points ahead. Still a week to go though…


390 Responses to “Survation poll of Newark by-election”

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  1. @MOG

    I was surprised at how much of an anti-Tory vote there is in Shoreham.

    I went to a local kind of Question Time where the format was the same as the BBC show, including Tim Loughton & Matthew Oakeshott (!!) and the audience was much more left-leaning than right & I admit to being quite surprised having never realised it despite living here since 1979.

  2. “The value bet must surely be Lab on 33/1 with bwin, if you can still get on it.”

    34/1 now.

  3. The poll itself could have an impact by showing UKIP second – Labour voters might switch tactically. Yes, we elites all know that their policies are utterly dissimilar, but the man on the Newark omnibus doesn’t.

  4. @MrNameless

    As well as a Uni Student in Shef (though not for much longer unfortunately), Newark is my hometown. Handily, my parents removed me from the electoral roll so I can’t vote, but it seems odd seeing all the cabinet around Newark market square!!
    One of my friends works at the local paper (Newark Advertiser), and he said Cameron was great, Boris seemed as though he was high, and was a right laugh, although barely a word of sense came out, meaning writing the article was hard, Hague was a pillock who seemed uncomfortable talking to real people, and May was like a hard headmistress. Nice, but you wouldn’t want to get on her wrong side – although obviously she was all smiles on the day, and he said that she came across really well.

    Best of luck Mr N – the Prince Rupert or the Fox are the places to go, after a day talking to miserable Newarkers :)

  5. ‘36% of those who voted Ukip in the European elections are already planning to abandon the party in 2015. Of these defectors the largest number (25%) will switch to the Conservatives, 8% will vote Labour and 3% for another party.’

    British Election Study

    Tonight’s yougov

    CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Using the findings at the top would give the results as

    CON 35%, LAB 39%, LD 7%, UKIP 10%

  6. @Chris Green:
    Well, he may not know that the policies are different…or he might not care and be more interested in voting /against/ the Tories than /for/ anybody. The latter is a real risk for both parties at the next election with UKIP, since there are plenty of seats where one of the parties isn’t “in the hunt”. For example, if I’m a Tory voter and the Tories can win in my seat, I’ll vote for them. If, however, they aren’t…but UKIP can win, I might vote UKIP not because I support UKIP but because at least UKIP isn’t Labour.

  7. I have a teary about those recent poll movements. Before we had a united anti-Tory movement but it wasn’t particularly pro-Lab. the arrival of UKIP at the euros 9anti-Tory) has created some revulsion.

    Now you are seeing anti-UKIP, pro-Europe, anti-fascist alignment behind Lab.

    Lab might need to be careful before they shift to the right.

  8. @NickP

    CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    This is a much better poll for Lab looking at the crossbreaks, a lot more ex 2010 LD’s, higher 2010 Lab retention and a very small DK/WV, but the 18 to 24 looks wrong.

    I am still slightly inclined to think this lead is a bit overstated because the minor parties are still elevated at 9% instead of the usual 7%, which means the polls are still unsettled

    Only 1 in 4 of 2010 LD’s planning to vote for the party, I think that is ridiculously low. This new low has caused even some usually loyal LD’s to go Green, I don’t think they are potential Lab voters though.

    Lab to UKiP still high, Lab will be hoping to get some back, but I think the some of the policies to do that will offend ex LD’s voters.

  9. Also the supplementary questions show big swings to Lab. however i wonder if people agree with me that the swings and roundabouts on these questions depend on how well the Coalition or Lab have done on the voting intention question

    In this one the Coalition is on a very low 38% anti-Coalition 62%

    If Lab voting intention is high, so Lab will score well in the supplements, if the Coalition is high they will score better.in the supplements.

    That’s what i think anyway

  10. FV – bit confused by this

    ”but I think the some of the policies to do that will offend ex LD’s voters.”

    Could it be that ex LDs now saying the UKIP are people who voted LD as they were not Lab or Tory only to discover that the LDs were as part of the ‘establishment’ as the other 2 from their perspective?
    Not sure Policies have that much to do with these shifters.
    I broadly agree with your maths last night although the 7% lead seems at the top of moe and the precise UKIP retention and dispersion is unclear.
    Also – some of the UKIP 16% will be people who did not vote in the Euros and other turnout disparities distort the analysis but the narrowing of the Lab-Con lead due to the UKIP support dropping to around 10% is difficult to argue against.

    Think votes borrowed to the Greens from Lab for the Euros largely back in the 2 YG polls.

    All points to a a narrow Lab lead but maybe edging up – too early to say?

  11. Comparing this morning’s YG with the recent 1% lead ( 22/23 May) two changes have been most significant:-

    LD to Lab 2% of VI
    UKIP to Con 2% of VI

    Oakshott & Farage ?

  12. Good Morning Jim Jam

    I was thinking that LOC ex LD now Lab would be put off if Lab offered a hard line on immigration in order to get back ex Lab to UKIP voters

    Your explanation is plausible too

    i think the my theory is moot because i don’t tink Ed M will do that.

    Yes i was reading somewhere that UKIP had attracted quite a few non voters back, which is a good thing for democracy

    The lead is a bit high and as you wrote ‘ too early to say’ about changes.

  13. FV – I get it now….tis t’early

    If Lab chased LD-UKIP switchers they may put off some current LD-Lab switchers.

    Agree with that and hope you are right t it is moot.

  14. I think this is probably an outlier- Con original sample was too
    low and weighted up. I don’t think the supp
    questions are weighted.(AW??)
    However, for the first time in a while the LibDem 2010 Switchers are breaking 38% for Labour. I know, cross breaks and all that, but it underlines the essential point- if Labour hold the 2010 switchers the party will win next year. The advice has to be- don’t shift right to deal with UKIP!

  15. @Chatterclass

    ‘The advice has to be- don’t shift right to deal with UKIP!’

    yes totally agree

    Nobody is going t vote Lab because they are tough on immigration, because whatever Lab says there are at least 2 other parties that can trump whatever Lab says and do it more believably.

  16. Good Morning All.
    I think today’s poll is an outlier, too- CHATTERGLASS.

  17. FV/CC,

    I would be very disappointed if Labour acted tough on immigration.
    However, acknowledging that immigration that is good for the country can cause issues in certain areas due to the numbers and acting to assist LAs etc is imo sensible.

    Also, clamping down on gang masters circumventing min wage for migrants by charging obscene rents etc and other dodgy things is not pandering to the UKIP and the unreachable elements of their support but addressing real concerns that some natural Labour supporters will have.

    This would be right regardless of Electoral considerations.

  18. I think YouGov must be an outlier today to some extent – after three 2pt leads in a row there is nothing that has happened to trigger a 5pt jump over the course of two days. However, it may be that there are slightly more of UKIP’s Euro voters feeling emboldened to say they’ll vote for them rather than the Tories at the GE. I doubt the LD business has had a great effect, simply because they had been reduced to their core vote anyway. It is also a bit of a ‘bubble’ story, particularly the Oakeshott side of it. That said, 7% is rather low and any previous LD>LAB switchers that had (very slowly) drifted back ahead of the locals might be back behind LAB.

    It seems the LAB supporters have been populating the board overnight. Given that it is a by-election, that there is a new player in UKIP and that the previous Tory MP in Newark was probably one of the worst MPs ever to be elected I think that poll is quite promising for the CONs. Demographic analysis shows that it isn’t a particularly favourable area to UKIP – it is more well-to-do middle class than ‘left-behinds’, to be over-simplistic. So I’d think 28% is just about their capacity there. The real fear was LAB coming through the middle but, having gone up only 4% from the GE on that poll, that doesn’t look a real danger any more.

    That doesn’t mean the CONs should wind down their extraordinarily intensive campaign in Newark. But I think they can feel fairly confident.

  19. IMO Ukip might prefer to come a close second .

    It permits them another opportunity to have Media coverage of the UKIP “Surge” without the problems associated with actually winning and another UKIP spokesperson available for Public Exposure other than Farage, with the high possibility that they go off script or lose the plot entirely.

    Roger Helmer has got some form for this.

  20. While Con are still very likely to win Newark, a UKIP or Lab win is plausible and should not be discounted at this stage. If either occurred, this would change the political narrative significantly. However, the main event between now and the GE that would have cataclysmic implications is a YES vote on 18/9/14.

  21. JACK

    @It seems the LAB supporters have been populating the board overnight. ”

    Was that irony-or don’t you visit during the day ?

    :-)

  22. Colin – surely supporters of one party are not more likely to post when a poll positive for them appears.

    NO WAY!

  23. @Jim Jam

    Correct, Miliband’s (not well reported) June 2012 IPPR speech was very much along those lines.

    In the last week he’s also been clear he believes EU membership is in our best interests. A referendum on the issue will not be his priority (except as Mike N points out in the case of treaty change).

    Immigration and the EU are Con/Ukip talking points, currently diving out all other issues in the media. Miliband aim is to shift the agenda.

  24. “Whilst Alistair Webster QC’s report made absolutely no requirements of Lord Rennard, or made any recommendations whatsoever concerning him, he does recognise as suggested in the full report, that he may well have encroached upon “personal space”. In relation to this, Alistair Webster suggested in his report that Lord Rennard “may well wish to consider an apology”. He would therefore like to apologise sincerely for any such intrusion and assure them that this would have been inadvertent”

    From the Rennard letter

    Where do the LibDems find people like Rennard & Oakshott?

    Clegg must be heartily glad to be rid of the latter, but it seems the former has widespread party “support” .

    Go on Cleggy-do it. You might as well go for broke now.
    At least you will have a genuine liberal centerist party to lead , rather than a left wing fellow travellers club with assorted malcontents & dirty macks.

  25. @FLOATING VOTER: “36% of those who voted Ukip in the European elections are already planning to abandon the party in 2015.”

    Since UKIP is already down from 27.5% to 16% (a loss of over 70%) surely that’s already included in those figures?

  26. JIM JAM

    Perish the tought !

    Jim Jam-did you see net approval negative seems to be growing again-any thoughts?

  27. I don’t think the Tories will be overly concerned – whatever happens in Newark.

    If they win, they can argue that UKIP are not a serious threat in safe Tory seats. That yes, where UKIP can throw all their resources at a single seat they may make some progress, but that this will not be the case at the GE where they will have to spread their resources more thinly.

    If they lose to UKIP, they could play it down as just a by-election result that will be reversed at the GE.

    If they lose to Labour, they can point to how voting UKIP could allow Labour into Westminster by the back door.

  28. @JACK SHELDON: “I think YouGov must be an outlier today to some extent – after three 2pt leads in a row there is nothing that has happened to trigger a 5pt jump over the course of two days”

    Well there’s the small matter of the Euros being out of the way. Isn’t the fieldwork for Yougov’s +4 and +7 the first conducted since Sunday’s results?

  29. “British consumer sentiment hit its highest level in more than nine years this month.Polling company GfK said its monthly consumer confidence index rose to zero in May from -3 in April. This was its highest level since April 2005 and beat economists’ forecasts in a Reuters poll for an increase to -2.

    A similar survey by polling company YouGov for the economics consultancy CEBR, which was also released on Friday, showed the most positive consumer sentiment since July 2007

    Separately, the Confederation of British Industry said that its growth indicator – which is based on surveys of factories, retailers and services companies – was its strongest since the series began in 2003.

    “What’s encouraging is that growth is becoming more broad-based,” said CBI deputy director-general Katja Hall.”

    Reuters
    30/05/2014

  30. @RAF: “If they win, they can argue that UKIP are not a serious threat in safe Tory seats.”

    Bit of a straw man argument, isn’t it? The threat from UKIP is that it’ll eat into the Tory vote. That looks like being confirmed whatever the finishing order.

  31. @RogerH:
    A decline from 27.5% to 16% would be a decline of about 40%. An increase from 16% to 27.5% would be an increase of about 72%. A decline of about 70% from 27.5% would leave a rump of about 8%.

  32. @Colin

    The economic liberal approach is not proving particularly successful for Clegg. And why would it, given that he’s currently sharing power with the actual party of economic liberals?

  33. @RogerH/0839:
    A lot of it is going to come down to margins. If the Tories win by 10-15%, they can argue UKIP aren’t a threat in safe seats. If the Tories squeak by, that argument is going to be pretty flat.

  34. @GRAY

    You’re right, of course. Too early in the morning for me. (27.5 is about 70% more than 16%). However on the positive side the correct figure is a much better fit with the anticipated fall in UKIP support.

  35. @ Jim Jam and Billy Bob

    Agree on the correct Labour position on immigration. I thought Yvette Cooper’s piece in the Guardian the other day was just about right, which surprised me somewhat. I think her hubby would prefer something more ‘robust’! Let’s hope they hold the existing line.

  36. FLOATING VOTER
    “Nobody is going t vote Lab because they are tough on immigration”
    If, as EM says, (and as the evidence supports and most economists would agree) immigration is necessary for the UK economy, and immigrants put in more direct financial benefit to the economy than they take out, a Labour policy may be “tough” in the sense of limiting the extent of immigration, but its main drive (IMV) will be towards efficient and transparent integration – thus requirements of and support for English language and competence and the weeding out of benefits tourism or criminality. I believe this should err on the side of tolerance also for economic and social benefit: for example, access to the NHS may be cheaper to bear and more beneficial than administering exclusion, and residence and educational exchanges are by their nature of reciprocal benefit to the UK and to the rest of the EU, and are regulated by inclination and the market.

  37. RAF

    It depends what you mean by “Success”:-

    60 or 70 MPs committed to left wing policies , futilely trying to replace Labour (1) , or in coalition with it, or in permanent opposition ; and constantly riven by ideological splits.

    or
    30 or 40 MPs committed to a centrist liberal position, with the real possibility of governing with left or right .

  38. Colin

    missed my footnote :-

    (1) see Tony Dean’s heartfelt admissions on the futility of this objective.

  39. Colin
    Ming Campbell stated 2 as the LD strategy at the weekend, trouble is it will annoy the hell out of activists outwith the chosen citadels.
    Also , the national collapse of their VI will make it increasingly difficult to implement the citadel strategy IMO.

  40. Colin

    Yes the good news continues but Government approval is declining. I can only assume that the problems of the LibDems has somehow rubbed off onto the other Government party otherwise it seems a totally bonkers reaction by voters.

  41. @ NickP

    “I have a teary about those recent poll movements.”

    Is this a theory that leads to melancholy conclusions?

  42. @Floating voter.

    Those figures re potential UKIP switchers in a General Election are already taken account of in the general election voting intention figures.

    Voters aren’t telling pollsters that they are planning to both switch away from and vote UKIP.

    The pertinent question over the next year is how many people will change their mind as to how they will vote, not what they are saying now.

  43. Colin
    I agree that Clegg should boot out Rennard now as well, Our Fat Friend certainly knows how to pick his moment does he not ?

  44. @Colin & TOH

    I hate to break it to you, but this is the very definition of a bubble. We have an economy that is growing because people have been told it’s growing and expect it to carry on growing. It might only take a slight shock for people to realise that the emperor is a naturist.

    If anyone could kindly explain to me how this kind of growth is sustainable when real wages are still not keeping up with inflation, I’d be grateful. And don’t try to spin me the line that wages will soon start rising significantly above inflation, because people just don’t have the bargaining power at work for that to happen.

  45. If Labour win in Newark, I look forward to hearing Nick Robinson explain that it is a very disappointing result for Labour.

  46. @Drunkenscouser

    I don’t have time for a discussion on economics right now but you have switched cause and effect.

    If what you are saying were true almost no country would ever come out of recession.

    Growth can (not always) raise wages and falling unemployment can (not always) eventually improve bargaining power.

  47. Colin

    see Tony Dean’s heartfelt admissions on the futility of this objective.

    I don’t think it was the ‘objective’ that Tony Dean felt was futile but the way in which all his work over the years in getting lib Dems elected has been destroyed by Clegg’s behaviour in coalition, both in terms of actions and the consequences for Lib Dem, especially in local government, up and down the Country.

    As one of the people who started off the then Liberal success in Islington[1] in the late 70s, it must be particularly distressing because for the first time since 1982 they have no councillors there (where they ran the council in the past).

    Still I’m sure that we’ve all been enlightened by your belief that the true purpose of all political Parties is not to achieve electoral success by to implement policies that Colin approves of.

    [1] There is a belief that Islington was such an area of Liberal success because of the stereotypes about the area. In actual fact Islington has always had very high levels of social housing and even now gentrification is far from universal.

  48. I find it hard to believe that posters on here are even contemplating the remote possibility of a Labour win in Newark.

    Before this poll there was always a chance but seeing how the poll has split we already have Labour in 3rd (narrowly) and an LD vote of 5%. So seems to me that Tories and UKIP can’t both drop votes and Lab has virtually no LD’s voters left to squeeze. You are then left to thinking Lab
    might take some votes off UKIP or relying on turnout to do funny things.

    I do think UKIP have a chance- that is what by elections do and you might end up with a bit of Lab to UKIP swing for whatever reason (high profile UKIP campaign or some Lab tactical votes who want to embarrass the Tories).

  49. @ BFIELD

    ‘TOH
    “Totally bonkers reaction by voters .”

    Oh dear, why can’t they behave sensibly like COLIN and you.’

    I always knew the 1832 Reform Act was a big mistake. It was the start of a very slippery slope….

  50. @Chris Green,
    On the other hand someone over at the Telegraph will have no problems at all!

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