I’ve been laid low with a stomach bug all day so haven’t had time to really write about today’s polling. For the record though here are the two new polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17% – a nice post-local election boost for UKIP and the highest they’ve recorded in a telephone poll to date. Tabs are here.

In contrast Populus have figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Their fourteen point figure for UKIP is just the same as last week. Tabs here


273 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. @JonBoy,

    Don’t count on anything. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s improbable. If I can make it out this weekend I’ll let you all know the situation on the ground.

  2. @JonBoy,

    Don’t count on anything. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s improbable. If I can make it out this weekend I’ll let you all know the situation on the ground.

  3. @Jonboy

    Some analysis by @election_data – http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-constituency-of-newark.html – suggests it should be a reasonably comfortable CON hold. He thinks that the CON voters there are of the more solid type and so that for UKIP to win they will need to take a large number of votes from LAB.

  4. It is somewhat surprising that there hasn’t been a Newark poll yet. With the political roadshow heading down there at the moment I’m sure it won’t be long, though Ashcroft may have been told not to (perhaps so as not to encourage tactical LAB>UKIP or UKIP>LAB switching depending on who looks like being the main challenger).

  5. colin

    Thanks – was also reading Clive james

    Gray – thankyou also

    TOH/Ewen

    All the best with it. My closest friend and duo partner is also suffering and I have at least a sense of how hard it is.

    It certainly puts ole-gyp-of-the-knee into perspective – as most things do of course.

    pAul

  6. By the way, no-one seems to have picked up on my point that an EU bent on reforming itself following the elections rather takes away from the Cons go-it-alone reforms.

    Especially when coupled with

    “and we’ll pretend we’re going to bugger off if we don’t get what we want but we are not telling you what that is we do want in case we don’t get it, so there.”

    approach.

  7. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Personally I am surprised it took that time.

    5 Days and as we know a week is a long time in Politics!

    Still I doubt He will be on His own for long.

  8. Rosie & Dasie,

    I’d compare it to devo-plus in Scotland, where no-one can get excited about any particular package of increase powers because there have been so many packages announced/proposed/implemented that no-one can remember who was in favour of what, what what does, or even what’s what.

    This gives the Aye campaign a terrific advantage, since although their proposals are vague, tentative and dubious, they’re as clear as fresh air in comparison to devo-plus.

  9. In fact, I know of no better way to mess up a reforming agenda than to propose lots and lots of different reform packages as an alternative.

  10. RnD
    Cheers Paul.

    I’ve just noticed that the LDs had a candidate in Basildon called Steve Nice, talk about type-casting ! (He didn’t win , so maybe it is true that Nice Guys finish last ?)

  11. Was he the famous DJ from Harry and Paul?

  12. @RosieandDaisie

    Yes, that did cross my mind. But actually I think it will make the CONs hopes of achieving real change seem more conceivable and make LAB and the LDs seem more out of touch. It is hard for LAB and the LDs to change their tune – we’ll wait for other people to bring about change – at this stage of the parliament.

    Even now it won’t be at all straight-forward though, as the changes Cameron wants aren’t the same as those the Swedes want which aren’t the same as those Merkel would stomach… I think he’ll get a fair amount out of it though, as none of the big players are suggesting that Britain shouldn’t be seen as a special case and listened to. An amendment to the Treaty of Rome removing the famous (infamous?) ‘ever-closer union’ clause seems quite likely now but it remains to be seen whether change beyond the cosmetic can be achieved.

  13. I’ve just come across this blog by a non-Labour Party supporter: http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/local-election-results-2014-aav.html?m=1

  14. 7% for the Greens? Surely they have to be included in the side bar at some point?

  15. Rosieanddaisie

    Thanks,
    Paul but gyp is gyp. I hope yours gets better soon.

  16. Matthew Oakshott resigns from LDs. Says that LDs heading for disaster. apologises to Cable. BBC news

  17. Danny Alexander is third in his constituency of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, according to Oakeshott’s final poll.

  18. Where does it go from here for the LDs. If Oakshott was to form a new SDP how many LDs would follow him. I for one would come out of the wilderness to join.

  19. Figures for INBS:

    SNP 32
    Lab 25
    Lib 16
    Con 12
    UKIP 7

  20. I would hope Oakeshott would rejoin the Labour Party as David Owen has sort of done. Another SDP would do his ideals no good and I’m sure he knows it.

  21. Peter Bell

    Matthew Oakshott resigns from LDs. Says that LDs heading for disaster. apologises to Cable. BBC news
    ___________

    Heading for disaster? They’re already a disaster.

    Don’t control a single council in Scotland after Scottish council elections and don’t even lead in any council coalitions.

    Have no Scottish mainland seats at Holyrood after the 2011 election.

    Came in on 6th place in Scotland at the Euro elections.

    5th across the UK in the Euro elections and left with one MEP.

    Trashed in the latest council elections in England losing ? of their seats.

    Dismal polling in countless by-elections.

    It’s doom and gloom I tell ya!!

  22. ALEC

    Thanks.

    Yes I was aware of the short lifespan of physically stored e-data.

    And of course, data stored on pcs etc lasts as long as the device.

    But I was refering to sites like Facebook, Flickr etc.

    I wasn’t aware that they would delete inactive accounts. I don’t quite see how they would know whether inactivity is temporary, or permanent. Is there some time limit which they apply?

    I have a moribund Flickr account which still exists with my pictures on it after a period of some years.

  23. mrnameless

    Figures for INBS:

    SNP 32
    Lab 25
    Lib 16
    Con 12
    UKIP
    ________

    STATGEEK might be able to shed some light on this but I’m sure this seat was the only 4 way marginal in the UK, well used to be..

  24. The UK’s major cinema chains have banned all adverts on the Scottish independence referendum after customers inundated them with complaints.

    The pro-UK Better Together campaign said the vast majority of complaints had come from supporters of Scottish independence after Better Together and another pro-UK group, Vote No Borders, flooded Scottish cinemas with adverts urging a no vote.
    _____

    “vast majority of complaints had come from supporters of Scottish independence”

    Duh!!

  25. @ Mr Nameless (12.28)

    “I would hope Oakeshott would rejoin the Labour Party as David Owen has sort of done. Another SDP would do his ideals no good and I’m sure he knows it.”

    As a Lab man I am sure that you would hope for that. However I believe that the position in the political world is changing. There is now more room for the smaller parties and I suspect that it is just a matter of time (say 10 years) before some form of PR is introduced for Local Authority elections if not for National Elections. More and more of the electorate are becoming convinced that the two major parties of the past do not provide the answers re their own interests.

    Evidently according to Oakeshott, Cable was aware of the results of the polls he had organised. This could cause further disruption among LDs. Comments on the news re the resignation closing the door on LD unrest are far from the truth imo.

  26. Link to Oakshotts’s “treasonable polling” tabs by ICM for those who haven’t seen them.
    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_libdems_4polls.pdf

  27. I’m not hugely surprised by the Inverness poll. The SNP are clearly doing well in Northern Scotland and may challenge for some of the seats that are LD held. Alexander has also gained a reputation as struggling to differentiate himself from the Tories and that may hurt him come 2015 in an area where the CONs are not strong.

    It would be a shame if he loses his seat as I think he’s an excellent minister…

  28. @ Peter Bell

    “……..I suspect that it is just a matter of time (say 10 years) before some form of PR is introduced for Local Authority elections …….”

    Interesting article on page 7 of today’s Times newspaper about how 19 million now live in “One Party State” local authority areas. This is becoming untenable – and infact just as bad for Conservative and Labour supporting voters in vast swathes of the country where they have no representation, nor any prospect of any. I am convinced keeping FPTP for local elections is damaging membership and activism for both the major parties because it involves either continuously hopeless electioneering in your own area, or busing activists to the nearest marginal areas, sometimes many miles away. FPTP in local elections is becoming really damaging for even the major parties.
    Wilst the makority of voters clearly like “clean” one party outcomes for national elections, as evidenced by the AV referendum, it is quite a different matter to crush the life and purpose out of all political activity in a locality other than for the dominant one party, except if your area just happens to be marginal because of a fortuitous socil mix locally – increasingly rare in England especially due to the zonalization of housing costs.

  29. So polling suggests Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, Julian Huppert, Lynne Featherstone and Tessa Munt are all about to lose their seats. Foster, Beith, Teather, Bruce, Stunnell, Brooke, Campbell and Heath are retiring.

    By the end of this, we’re going to be down to a leadership battle between Jeremy Browne and Tim Farron.

  30. Wilst the makority = Whilst the majority (typo-apologies!)

  31. @ MrNameless

    “So polling suggests Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, Julian Huppert, Lynne Featherstone and Tessa Munt are all about to lose their seats.”

    What polling suggests this? Do you mean an extrapolation of accumulated local election vote totals on a low turnout – or has there been opinion polling I am unaware of in these constituencies?

  32. Oakeshott’s ICM opinion polling in Sheffield Hallam, Twickenham, INBS, Cambridge and Wells, local election results in H&WG.

  33. Good Afternoon All.

    Simon Hughes is with us, as the ‘Straight Choice’ man.

    Is Lord Oakeshott being too optimistic?

    The fall of Lib Dems could benefit the Cons in many seats.

  34. @MrNameless

    I get your point. However, some of Oakeshott’s poll findings and the actual local election results do contradict one another. You are taking the worst case scenarion for them choosing from different criteria dependant upon which shows them doing worst i.e. losing.

    The actual local government election results show that Clegg would hold Hallam, and Cable is only a gnats away from holding Twickers on that basis.

    I think there is a danger that we who feel annoyed with the LDs for a constellation of reasons are in danger of revelling in their difficulties to an extent that we may overestimate the extent of their likely losses in 2015 because we think that is what they deserve. I suspect they will consolidate a bit and hang onto more seats than we currently predict.

  35. Oakeshott’s full resignation statement from the Guardian[1]:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/28/nick-cleggs-international-development-speech-politics-live-blog#block-5385c506e4b0f6774a4ff266

    It contains links to the combined dataset for the four that were released yesterday (Cambridge, Redcar, Hallam, Wells) plus extra ones for IBNS and Twickenham, which the statement says were due tonight but ICM has put up already.

    [1] Which the Guardian then spend more words ‘summarising’ than were in the original text. Sigh. Still can’t have the plebs getting their information undiluted can we?

  36. My prediction is that the LDs will hold on to around 40 seats. They could lose some big names, and certainly won’t move forward, but the evidence from the locals suggests they are strong enough to hold on in a lot of their English strongholds. This is particularly true where the opposition is split, either CON/UKIP (Eastleigh, Portsmouth etc.) or CON/LAB. Those they will lose will be mainly in those where they were never that strong to start with – Brent, Hornsey, Redcar etc.

    In Scotland only Alastair Carmichael looks at all secure – don’t rule him out from any potential leadership contest.

  37. Can hardly believe you were unaware of those polls Tony. They’re the talk of the town. As you correctly say, however, it’s unlikely that Cable would lose his seat, and I still think it would be unwise for Labour to invest too heavily in “decapitating” Nick Clegg who in my view is still overwhelming favourite to hold on. Danny Alexander – well that could be another matter. The only thing is that the poll was commissioned by someone with a serious axe to grind & I would be cautious of trusting it unless & until there is corroborative evidence (not just the Euro-election results which tell us absolutely nothing about how a Scottish constituency would vote in a general election).

  38. @ Tony Dean (1.12)

    Thanks for that extract. Makes interesting reading. Living in Newcastle where we did have several years LD leadership until 2011, and where a left leaning LD party could still challenge Lab, I had not considered the effect on activists living in a one-party authority.

    If an interest in politics is to be maintained within the general public this article only emphasises my conviction that PR in local elections is not too far off. If that proves successful, as I am sure it will, then there is no reason that it can not be extended to GEs.

    The comment in the Times re the public preferring a “clean” one party outcome in National Elections is imo questionable. Their ref to “evidenced by the AV referendum” is not entirely accurate as I believe that the outcome was significantly biased by Cameron’s stance and the already growing mistrust of Clegg.

  39. Don Foster’s replacement, Steve Bradley, was 16 to 1 on with Ladbroke’s to hold Bath next year. Perhaps he’ll go straight to leader.

  40. @CHRISLANE1945: “The fall of Lib Dems could benefit the Cons in many seats.”

    But will probably benefit Labour in even more.

  41. Jack Sheldon

    The Mighty Ming stated explicitly the 40 seat strategy at the weekend. They still expect to hold the balance of power after the next election.
    Delusional ? Maybe , but bloody audacious for sure. Also Lab and Tory now know where to put the work in don’t they. Also the UKIP.
    Chris Lane
    Have you been listening to that Vernon Bogsnorkler again. Was he your tutor too ?

  42. Good afternoon all,

    haven’t had time to read through the thread, but I just wonder if I am alone in thinking that Populus’ Scottish figures are incredible – in the original meaning of the word. They really need to do some serious reworking of their methodology north of the Border. Labour too high, Tories too low…..

    As for LDs in Scotland, Kennedy will survive in Ross/Lochaber/Skye Alexander seems to me to be agonner in Inverness/Nairn/Badenoch . John Thurso may survive on his local vote, but Alan Reid is in trouble in Argyll. Michael Moore may survive on his personal vote, but with Ming standing down Fife North East will not stay Lib Dem.

    That’s all IMO of course, and I expect to be proved wrong…… as always…….

  43. And I hope AW is back to normal health again… Nasty things, stomach bugs.
    Reminds me of the old joke:
    Mrs. Smith: My husband’s in bed in a bad way with his stomach
    Mrs. Jones: He’d be even worse off without it…….

    Sorry……

  44. @ Barnaby
    “Can hardly believe you were unaware of those polls Tony.”

    I was aware of Oakeshott’s first four – I hadn’t then yet realised he had done two more!

    Agree largley with the rest of your post.

  45. @ Peter Bell

    “The comment in the Times re the public preferring a “clean” one party outcome in National Elections is imo questionable. Their ref to “evidenced by the AV referendum” is not entirely accurate as I believe that the outcome was significantly biased by Cameron’s stance and the already growing mistrust of Clegg.”

    To put the record straight Peter, this conclusion was NOT in the Times article – It is MY further comments with me coming to this conclusion based on talking to people during the referendum campaign. I found almost universally, except among LDs, that voters liked one party government, but at the same time wanted a more inclusive House of Commons that accommodated other views than just Tory and Labour. It seems voters have mutually exclusive desires when it comes to representation – unless we go for some hybrid electoral system that produces single party majorty government but with proportionally balanced opposition benches!!?!!

  46. Carmichael potential leader of the LDs?
    That’s hardly likely to be seen as an attempt to build bridges between differing views!

    As for DA in INBS, the SNP are doing reasonably well in areas to the east, as far as Aberdeen. Cons may well retake Deeside, but unless the Skyefolk decide to join their western cousin I can’t see Kennedy going.

  47. Roger M
    “Still can’t have the plebs getting their information undiluted can we?”

    Call me a pleb if you wish but I’m not alone in being unable to understand the ICM tables & I rely on the translation of them by others more knowledgeable than me.

  48. Oakeshott has had his 15 Warhol minutes and apparently not long enough to enable people to spell his name correctly.

    He was quite entertaining a few years back on financial stuff IIRC.

  49. I think it is spelt Oaksh*t isn’t it?

    Which always seems odd -since oak trees don’t.

  50. @ Mr. Nameless,

    I would hope Oakeshott would rejoin the Labour Party as David Owen has sort of done.

    Fond though I am of Lord Oakeshott, I think the Labour Party has enough problems already.

    I feel rather sorry for him. He appears to be the only person left in Britain who believes the Liberal Democrats are worth saving.

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