I’ve been laid low with a stomach bug all day so haven’t had time to really write about today’s polling. For the record though here are the two new polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17% – a nice post-local election boost for UKIP and the highest they’ve recorded in a telephone poll to date. Tabs are here.

In contrast Populus have figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Their fourteen point figure for UKIP is just the same as last week. Tabs here


273 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. MRNAMELESS

    “Demoralised, outnumbered, outspent, outvoted and split down the middle – how much longer can the Liberal Democrats carry on?”
    _____

    Well if you put it like that then I reckon they are already finished.

  2. Mr N

    These are important figures. The UK Treasury have used them to show that 183% of people think that the next UK GE is really important to people.

  3. I’ve really found this site valuable in getting a broader overview in the run up to last weeks election. In the light of the outcome it would be very helpful if the Greens % was now also included as a matter of course – especially as they came higher than the Lib Dems in terms of the popular vote. Perhaps you might also consider amending the right hand bar to include the Greens and (dare I say it) UKIP (when you’ve recovered).

    It took UKIP a while get a promotion to the named parties.

    Of course, if week in, week out, the Green VI is above the Lib Dems, there is surely a case for a Green promotion to a named party.

  4. CATMAN

    “Of course, if week in, week out, the Green VI is above the Lib Dems, there is surely a case for a Green promotion to a named party”
    ____

    Absolutely and if the current trend continues then I for one will be shouting for Lib/dem relegation to (others) ;-)

    BTW looks as if Nick Clegg is throwing in the towel

    .http://rlv.zcache.co.uk/cover_me_in_chocolate_and_throw_me_to_the_lesbians_tshirt-r3c5d1e9bd99540a580a5c5267024e998_8nhly_512.jpg

  5. @couper2802

    Agree. I think Russell Brand is right. Voting is a waste of time. Once again all the parties merge policies as they chase the popular vote and throw their previous principles on the bonfire. Less than a week and I already feel like I have been Clegged by my first ever vote for Labour.

    I’m going to join the 66% and stay at home next time and watch UKIP consume the other three. Maybe something better will come out of the ashes.

    Signing off until Newark. Am hoping we see the first of many UKIP MP’s. A shake up is long overdue.

  6. get well soon! :)

  7. Anyone else remember when 85% of people didn’t vote for their PCCs so no PCCs were elected? No, neither do I. The people you most hate? Yeah, they’ll be voting.

  8. @ TerryP

    “I would still Vote for Foot today though over the current bunch of Paint by number talkers.”

    It’s a tradition to welcome new posters to this site.
    If you voted for Foot in ’83 you have rarity value.
    I saw him on Doncaster Station in 1995ish. He was walking up & down, swinging his stick & talking furiously to himself. Perhaps his train was late.

  9. @Mr Nameless

    The LDs/Liberals are the most resiliant party in UK politics. They have soldiered on through much worse times and even with no leader would probably hold on to their southern enclaves in 2015, as they largely did in the Council elections.

    There are also plenty of people who like most of what the KDs stood for under Charles Kennedy. It would be a mistake to view the entire party through the lens of the most ardent Orange Bookers.

    The LDs will rise again as there is a place for them in UK politics.

  10. @Allan

    Absolutely and if the current trend continues then I for one will be shouting for Lib/dem relegation to (others) ;-)

    Now, now Allan, relegating them to others would really be rubbing salt into the wound….

  11. “I thought they took the morphine out of k&m many years ago…..”

    Well, you can always add it back in.

  12. @ Puppies re. Chris Lane,

    Your LD joke, once one of the most hilarious we have ever read, is actually wearing thin through constant repetition.

    No, it’s the repetition that makes it funny! Plus, it’s increasingly looking like he was right…

  13. YG

    C32 L34 LD8 UKIP15

    Nothing exciting.

  14. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by two points: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%

  15. Missis Minty

    Daisie starts to whine and Rosie covers her eyes with her paws.

    Its definitely DULL.

  16. @Neil A, R Huckle – Those LD figures look to be misleadingly high, does anyone agree?

  17. @ Paul,

    Oh, come on, they’ve taken worse than that. I mean, sometimes they post in Scotland threads!

  18. Criticism of our Chris is a bit rich coming from the purveyor of a hundred doggy tails.
    Besides repetition is habit-forming.

  19. Spearmint

    Well, even the UK Treasury does Scotland stuff!

    They seem to get it wrong, of course.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf63cf8c-e5b4-11e3-a7f5-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32wtCOEvl

  20. If I never hear another dog story or football match report it will be too soon.

  21. @”C32 L34 LD8 UKIP15
    Nothing exciting.

    Oh I dunno-more exciting than its predecessor of 12 months ago :-

    29/39/10/15

    I expected UKIP to have been much lower then. The Lab/Con changes are interesting too over that period.

  22. “Get well soon Anthony and if it’s any consolation then the Labour VI appears to have caught a bit of a stomach bug as well.”

    Another perspicacious post Allan. Its great that the other two main parties [the govt ones] have stayed clear of it.

  23. did you hear the one about the dog at a football match?

    Shows all to play for in May 2015.

  24. Great match at the local park today – finished 4-4, thanks to a last minute equaliser by yours truly. We didn’t want to end, but unbelievably a dog ran on to the field of play, and burst the ball.

  25. Damn you Jim Jam.

  26. It also tried to jump over an opinion poll but couldn’t ‘cos the Lib Dem VI was too high.

  27. My thoughts on the LDs. They will stick with Clegg. If they ditch him now they will be in disarray during the coming year and that could threaten the little hope they have.

    There is a possibility that the fortress strategy will work. In which case 40 seats and Cons short of a majority will usher in a second Coalition. I imagine that ‘lessons will have been learnt’ from their current experience and they could possibly recover.

  28. I repeat, as it is deemed acceptable by Spearmint, that we really do need to wait three weeks to get a settled picture. Having written that, there is no good news for coalition parties is there?

  29. @couper2802: “My thoughts on the LDs. They will stick with Clegg. If they ditch him now they will be in disarray during the coming year and that could threaten the little hope they have.”

    The Sheffield Hallam locals shares and the poll on GE intentions there seem to me to underline just how much more toxic Clegg is than his party. Rightly or wrongly, he is actively despised. If he goes, that boil is at least partly lanced. If Cable were to take over as leader until after the GE, he could rebalance the party image away from the Orange Bookers. He is comparatively untainted by the unseemly glee with which the LD leadership abandoned principles and commitment at a whiff of power. He would attract back at least some of the lost 2010 voters and probably construct a coherent case for voting LD, which Clegg seems incapable of.

  30. chris green

    Interestingly owr Rose is jolly good at football.

    In fact we bought her a full size on for xmas and – you would laugh yer head off at this – instead of dribbling with it it she manages to hold it with her teeth and belt around the field with her head in the air !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Its dead funny !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Send me an sae and I will send you a photo.

    Daisie prefers chasing rabbits.

    More later.

  31. @RosieAndDaisie – What a load of (foot)balls. ;-)

  32. Evening All.
    I think the ‘Electorate’ spoke about LD’s on Thursday, in terms of seats.

  33. What the electorate said to the LDs on Thursday was a single loud swear word complete with gestures.

  34. “Evening All.
    I think the ‘Electorate’ spoke about LD’s on Thursday, in terms of seats.”

    Well, a few of them did. I still see them making double figures comfortably in the GE – say, 10.

  35. Mr N

    I read Sadiq Khan’s grovelling letter. This section made me laugh.

    “So what are we offering now? Learning the English language will be a priority. ”

    I of course read it as meaning that the Labour Party would start speaking English!

  36. SPEARMINT.
    Thank you. (smiling face).

  37. Pete B

    At least it’s not newspeak they are learning.

  38. We keep on being told that the strength of Lib Dem MPs is their constituency work and this is what gets them elected. So I thought I’d look at what the ICM poll said about their impact on their constituents.

    Cambridge:
    Name MP (Julian Huppert): 36%

    Doing good/bad job: 58 – 13 = +45

    Redcar:
    Name MP (Ian Swales): 39%

    Doing good/bad job: 56 – 22 = +34

    Sheffield Hallam:
    Name MP (Nick Clegg): 71%

    Doing good/bad job: 45 – 45 = 0

    (As Deputy PM 39 – 55 = -16)

    Wells:
    Name MP (Tessa Munt): 58%

    Doing good/bad job: 71 – 15 = +56

    I have included ‘Name similars’ in those who managed to identify their MP. Also it’s worth pointing out that being unable to name them doesn’t mean that you don’t have an opinion – you may know quite a bit about your MP but be unable to remember what they are called.

    One thing about the ICM poll is that it doesn’t ask people to think about their constituency and candidates before asking for a second opinion as Ashcroft does. So it might well be that things aren’t so bleak for them as the poll initially suggests, though not perhaps for Clegg on those figures.

  39. Alan, they don’t need to learn that, they (and Con and LibDem) have been speaking it for years.

  40. @Chris Green

    But how would that help them long term?

    Cable is a bit tainted by the Royal Mail sale, but assuming he became leader he would possibly attract back some LOC LDs but at a cost of having to rule out a coalition with Cons. So the message is coalition almost destroys the party and now they have to rebuild.

    The fact that Lab will poll even more poorly than currently losing some votes to LD would almost guarantee a Con largest party. LD could not go into coalition so it would depend on the arithmetic how long that govts would last. But they could possibly get support from UKIP and Ulster Unionists.

    In any case LDs will be licking their wounds thinking ‘we are never going into coalition again’ and then what on earth would be the point of LDs.

  41. RogerH

    That doesn’t account for some parties (e.g UKIP) not standing in all wards. In my council, the overall percentage for UKIP was 21%, but in the wards they contested it was 32%.

  42. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27593504

    What sort of mad world do these grotesque people inhabit?

  43. Couper
    “In any case LDs will be licking their wounds thinking ‘we are never going into coalition again’ and then what on earth would be the point of LDs.”

    They managed for 60 years like that, though they did go down to single-figures in MPs at one stage.

  44. Personally I find the dog stuff and the CL1945 polling analysis pretty good and this site would be less appealing if it was purely earnest analysis of polls (or spinning of them).
    So thank you pups and CL.
    Perhaps the leg is still giving the ole gyp and that’s causing a little grumpiness? Anyway, leg get well soon.

  45. R&D
    “Honour” killings happen here too. One reason why multiculturalism isn’t fantastically popular.

  46. pete b

    Well, murder happens everywhere but I have never heard of someone being stoned to death outside a court in the UK and then all the culprits being allowed to bugger off.

    If I had my way we would have nothing to do with countries who are so inclined and would not have people with such beliefs coming to live here.

    Easier said than done I know but I have always felt the UN should be a UN of civilised democracies only [and I realise that won’t work either.]

  47. R&D
    It might not happen in quite the same blatant way, but try this link

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-12/foreign-correspondent-honour-killings/5082946

  48. GM

    I am NEVER grumpy.

    Ta about the knee and yes, it is at a reduced-gyp-level thankyou.

  49. @ Pete B

    ‘multiculturalism isn’t fantastically popular’

    Is there evidence for that?

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