I’ve been laid low with a stomach bug all day so haven’t had time to really write about today’s polling. For the record though here are the two new polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17% – a nice post-local election boost for UKIP and the highest they’ve recorded in a telephone poll to date. Tabs are here.

In contrast Populus have figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Their fourteen point figure for UKIP is just the same as last week. Tabs here


273 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. Get well soon!

  2. Good Afternoon All. First?

    Thank you AW, as always.

    Those LD figures look to be misleadingly high, does anyone agree?

  3. Just for the record, he also published the tabs from his ‘exit’ poll BUT weighted to the actual election result…

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Post-Euro-election-poll-Full-tables-weighted.pdf

  4. I expect UKIP might get a small boost this week with the council and EP results emboldening some of their Euro voters to also say they’ll vote for them at the GE when they might not have previously. Other than that 2 pts is about the average at the moment so no surprises.

  5. Chrislane1945 I believe both were completed pre-Euro results if that’s what you’re implying

  6. @Anthony

    I hope you feel better soon – I’m sure some of wishful thinking posing as analysis from all sides will revive you in spite of the fury of the bugs…

    I gather some now say the Conservatives will canter to victory by 8% on the basis of these election results….personally I think it is a whole lot more complicated than that with the decline of the LibDems and rise of UKIP… were I a betting man I’d hedge them…

  7. If you’re looking a bit Green, Conservative your energy, don’t do too much hard Labour. Maybe go Lib Dem and have a Ukip (sorry).

    A poll of Lib Dem Voice members (not a representative sample necessarily) found 54% want Clegg to stay, 39% want him to go. Those are terrible figures, worse than those on which Thatcher resigned.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/exclusive-poll-54-of-lib-dem-members-want-nick-clegg-to-stay-as-leader-40408.html

  8. So best guess after lent votes return is that Lab are a little ahead of the Tories 36-34 or similar.

  9. I’m more concerned about AW’s stomach bug – milk of magnesia was going to be my recommendation but apparently it’s been outlawed by the EU – it’s enough to make you vote UKIP!

  10. The past models all point to a comfortable CON win, at least on most seats if not a majority. They may do but you do have to be wary about past modelling. Most of them model post-1945, since which there have been no coalitions, no four-party politics (unless you count the SDP and Libs separately in the 80s) and much more LAB>CON and CON>LAB switching than has been the case so far this parliament. It would be surprising if the CONs didn’t win most seats now, but also surprising if the final year swing back is as great as during previous parliaments.

  11. It’ll be interesting to see how fast UKIP’s support falls away. I expect we’ll start to see Labour’s lead increase now, though.

  12. Get well soon AW. Are you allowed to take a holiday?

  13. Get well soon!

    Two 2-point leads. Sounds like much the same as immediately before the election?

  14. Interesting findings from Mike Smithson:

    @MSmithsonPB
    Final tally for last week’s locals from all wards but 1.

    Lab 35.52
    Con 26.0
    UKIP 15.6
    LD 11.1
    GRN 6.6

  15. Paul A you appear to be the victim of the rabid anti-EU press, this story, as is the case with so many “oh look what the EU has banned now” stories, has absolutely no basis in fact.

    http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/cloudy-coverage-on-milk-of-magnesia/

    But hey, the papes must be right! Even the Gruaniad is telling us that UKIP have caused an earthquake in British politics. No mean feat considering fewer than one in ten eligble voters planted a cross in the UKIP box in last Thursdays EP elections. Hey ho.

  16. Paul A

    Nasty things – stomach bugs and the London Press.

    The reduction in sulfate levels in Milk of Magnesia is to ensure that it matches the safety levels specified by the European Pharmacopoeia Commission. That’s not an EU Commission, but one run under the auspices of the Council of Europe.

    However, one understands that the word “Europe” produces severe allergic responses among those who read the Daily Mail/Express/Times ………

  17. The thing we are all interested in is what happens to the UKIP vote. In the 2009 Euros they polled 16%, which translated to 2-3% at the 2010 GE.

    If as polls suggest, half their vote comes from the Tories, but one in seven comes from Labour, then there is obviously more scope for a Tory gain, but I’d argue that they are harder to win back. For anti-Labour voters in the north, UKIP have replaced the Tories, Lib Dems, BNP and others as the tactical choice. They are traditional Tories disaffected by the more socially progressive progress of the Party, and Euroscepticism. Labour/UKIP switchers are more likely to have voted for Farage last week as a protest – ones I spoke to said they would back Labour next year. UKIPs workplace policies won’t hold much Labour support.

  18. Very interesting Ashcroft polls.

    Just so you all know, i’m going to disappear again. I’m not so sure that I’m going to add anything informative without potentially straying in to partisanship, so see you all in 2015.

  19. Chin up-bottom down Anthony.

    Get well soon.

  20. ChrisLane
    Those LD figures look to be misleadingly high, does anyone agree?

    The electorate?

  21. I confess I’d missed the shock/horror about Delors drinking all my Milk of Magnesia. I obviously read the wrong newspapers, though I notice some no doubt counterfeit drink is available from fringe retailers like Boots.
    This is an excellent site and thanks and good wishes for a speedy recovery, Milk-powered or not, are due to AW.

  22. OLDNAT

    Thanks for the explanation – I’m sure there are better remedies for AW’s complaint and help to clear him out – Vince Cables’ protestations of innocence maybe?

  23. Get well soon. I recommend Kaolin and Morphine. I’ve just checked, and (incredibly) it’s still available.

  24. @AW

    No dairy. Vegetables, plenty of water and rest.

    And Gaviscon. Always Gaviscon. What harm can chalk do?

  25. Paul A

    I’d recommend a strong dose of Patrick Dunleavy. Seems to be an effective antidote to excremental outpourings by the afflicted.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-horses-mouth-and-other-parts/

  26. RAF

    “What harm can chalk do?”

    Prior to the introduction of whiteboards into schools, chalk could do you a lot of damage, when embedded in the blackboard duster, an irate teacher hurled at you.

  27. RAF
    “vegetables”

    Are you mad?

    Beterschap toegewenst AW.

  28. I have this vision of CL1945 divining the GE results from a selection of polls by way of responses to Bruce Forsythe on Play Your Cards Right….”LD….higher or lower?” “Too high. It must be lower!”

  29. @Howard

    AW did not clarify what kind of bug.

    Anyway veggies clean you out either way.

  30. @Bramley

    That all-wards tally isn’t that interesting as the locals this time didn’t take place in the shires. The attempts to correct that by BBC/John Curtice and Rallings & Thrasher show a LAB lead of 1-2% (i.e. in line with polls).

  31. @OldNat

    I remember blackboards. Never had a duster hurled at me though – chalk-embedded or otherwise. We did though have teachers who used to hurl chalk at us, and later whiteboard markers.

  32. RAF

    That’s the problem with having a system that doesn’t have fully trained teachers.

    A well-balanced blackboard duster, with an aerodynamic wooden handle, could inflict the desired level of damage in the pupil scalp, and return to the hand of the teacher – without breaking the flow of invective – in a fully trained hand.

  33. RAF
    Your vegetable medicine – “include me out”.

    Just water – and K and M, or Gaviscon. Nothing else for a day or two. Imodium if travelling.

    Good way to lose weight of course.

  34. Some postings about what the polls ought to be, as opposed to what they are saying, amuse me: others I just feel embarrassed for the poster, except that we are nearly all anonymous. We do have Barney Crockett and Mr Cairns. Brave souls.

  35. Providing you believe in it, polls are just noisy (and biased) samples of voting intention. Of course predicting noise is probably harder than herding cats.

  36. The official referendum campaign starts on Friday I think. I am wondering what that means for the broadcasters. Will they have to balance up the UK wide program’s I.e Question Time, This Week, Daily politics etc. Or will the politics progs have to ignore the issue if they don’t have balance.?

  37. @Mr Nameless

    I worry that Labour are concentrating on the 10% of people who voted UKIP not the 65% who didn’t vote. They are not going to out UKIP UKIP. They should be making it clear that the real problem is unfettered capitalism and there should be solidarity with the working class throughout Europe and that the EU can be used to advance the rights of workers. Labour will never say this of course as they are terrified to be painted as left wing and by the spectre of Michael Foot. But my feeling is some left wing socialist language would serve them better.

  38. @Mr Nameless

    It’s not a bad strategy, but he probably should more explicitly have referenced the fact that Labour believes that its policies do address working class voter concerns. Rather than implying that UKIP have made Labour change tack.

  39. I thought they took the morphine out of k&m many years ago…..

    It is a swirl of talk until the next poll from Newark then we will see how far the tide will run…..

  40. Agreed, Couper2802.

    At Sheffield Labour Students’ final member meeting we’ve got two very interesting items on the agenda – a debate over an article a member wrote entitled “Voting Labour Hurts; It Shouldn’t” and how we take on UKIP. Should be good to debate it among ourselves, because it’s clear something very powerful needs to be deployed.

  41. cl1945

    “Those LD figures look to be misleadingly high, does anyone agree?”

    they look about right at the moment.

    Your LD joke, once one of the most hilarious we have ever read, is actually wearing thin through constant repetition.

    Its ok to take the odd poll off you know……..

  42. The tabs of the Ashcroft poll have the Lib Dems on 7, exactly the same as the Greens. Populous has them well ahead of the Greens.

  43. The Greens are polling equally with the Lib Dems in the Ashcroft poll!

  44. I’ve really found this site valuable in getting a broader overview in the run up to last weeks election. In the light of the outcome it would be very helpful if the Greens % was now also included as a matter of course – especially as they came higher than the Lib Dems in terms of the popular vote. Perhaps you might also consider amending the right hand bar to include the Greens and (dare I say it) UKIP (when you’ve recovered).

  45. I see none of the experts here had predicted the Russell Brand effect. That’s why, for top polling analysis, I got to The Daily Mash..

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/uk-thanks-russell-brand-2014052786930

  46. @COUPER2802

    I think Labour still need’s to address this Immigration thing seriously though, I feel they have made a start with a small s.

    But I agree with what you say, I would still Vote for Foot today though over the current bunch of Paint by number talkers.

    At least Foot stood up for what he believed in.

  47. Get well soon Anthony and if it’s any consolation then the Labour VI appears to have caught a bit of a stomach bug as well.

  48. Seems to me that the EU upheaval doesn’t help the Tory position.

    If almost everybody in the club wants to adjust rules to make them more flexible/sensible/whatever then it would make sense to do that as an ongoing process rather than setting a deadline, with little idea of exactly what it is we are negotiating about anyway.

  49. Interesting question I’ve just seen on Twitter from KCL/Ipsos Mori:

    How important is it, if at all, to you personally who wins the next General Election?

    Labour: 57%
    Conservative: 51%
    UKIP: 51%
    Lib Dem: 24%

    Demoralised, outnumbered, outspent, outvoted and split down the middle – how much longer can the Liberal Democrats carry on?

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