Sunday polls

There were three polls in the Sunday papers today. Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of CON 32%. LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 19%.

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also had only a one point lead for the Labour party: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here. YouGov also had a couple of tracking questions seeking to measure what effect the heavy criticism of UKIP on things like racism over the last couple of weeks has had. YouGov repeated two questions from earlier in the campaign – a week ago 41% of people thought UKIP were racist, 40% did not. Now 46% think they are racist (up 5), 39% they are not (down 1). A fortnight ago 27% thought Nigel Farage himself was a racist, 50% said he wasn’t. This week that has narrowed to 38% racist (up 9), 43% not racist (down 7).

Together those two make it look pretty conclusive that the attacks on UKIP did damage perceptions of the party. More people think the party and Farage are racist. However, it does NOT necessarily follow that it damaged their vote – it could just have served to further entrench negative views amongst people who didn’t like UKIP anyway. It could even have both helped and harmed them – making their opponents more negative towards them, but also bolstering their anti-establishment credentials amongst their supporters. The results tonight won’t really tell us – if UKIP do well, it doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done better without all the negative coverage. If UKIP do less well than expected, it doesn’t mean they weren’t headed that way anyway.

Finally there was a new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday. The fieldwork for the Survation poll didn’t start until late on Friday, so unlike the YouGov and Opinium polls most respondents will have had a chance to see the local election results. Topline figures there, with changes since Survations last pre-election poll, are CON 27%(-1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 23%(+2). Survation show some of the highest UKIP scores anyway, but the 23% is a record high for UKIP even by their standards – the first in what I’d expect to be many polls showing a post-election boost for UKIP.

While not a poll, the Sunday Times also had the Rallings and Thrasher Equivalent National Vote calculation for the local elections. This is essentially a very similar exercise to the BBC’s projected national share, but calculated by a different team using different key wards – Rallings and Thrasher’s figures are Conservatives 30%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 11%, UKIP 18%. Slightly different from the BBC’s, but it essentially tells the same story – Labour with only a tiny lead over the Tories, UKIP doing worse than in 2013 when R&T had them on 22%.

1,118 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. Allan Christie

    Theresa May on Marr said something very interesting.

    “No party has won a GE without being the largest party in local government and Labour aren’t the largest party in local government”

    This has already been comprehensively squashed as being untrue and a classic example of how the media (and political opponents) let people get away with repeating idiotic ‘facts’ without challenge. But it’s worth pointing that the Conservatives always have a massive inbuilt advantage under this measure.

    This partly because predominantly rural (and Tory) local authorities have wards with fewer voters and so more Conservative councillors will be representing an equivalent number of people than Labour. But such areas also tend to be two-tier authorities so there is an additional number of councillors for those people who aren’t there in a more Labour metropolitan or unitary authority

    [UKIP] hardly register in Scotland and don’t appear to be anywhere in NI

    Actually they had three councillors elected:

    which is three more than the Conservatives, the only other main GB Party to stand got.

  2. Wither EM looks weird or not and that having a detrimental impact on his chances on becoming the next PM isn’t the point I have tried to make previously.

    If you take Ann Widdecombe and John Prescott both would probably fail to make it onto the early stages of Mr & Miss Grimsby beauty contest but what both lacked in looks both more than made up for with charisma and character.

    Take dear old Boris, not exactly a Chippendale but has a likability factor about him and commands a presence.

    EM I’m afraid lacks that.

  3. @SoCalLiberal

    Thanks for the update on district 33… tension is building.

    In answer to your question this morning, IpsosMORI have some “like him, like his party” type questions… Cameron wins out on “like him, but don’t like his party”.

    The questions were asked once only about Tony Blair (at the end of his premiership) so perhaps not very representative… however, fewer people then said “I do not like Tony Blair but I like the Labour Party” than now say “I do not like Ed Miliband but I like the Labour Party.”


    Btw have the American TV stations been making much of Nigel Farage, I mean, he dresses so english (in the manner of a country house period drama).


    You need to take it up with Pickles as well, he repeated the same mantra as Theresa May but yes it looks like they are both clutching at straws.

    On the issues of clutching straws.

    [UKIP] hardly register in Scotland and don’t appear to be anywhere in NI

    Actually they had three councillors elected:

    That’s about 1% of the total amount and their of the vote was..what like 1.4%?

    Aye breakthrough right enough. ;-)

  5. #share

  6. R and D
    Who’s Crofty – Ii thought he was an England bowler (at least that’s what the wicket keeper Alec Stewart called out after his every bowl ‘nice one Crofty’). Is it a nickname for Lord Ashcroft? (But ‘lovely’?).

  7. @Bramley
    “To demean others on the basis of their appearance smacks of intimidation to me & I had expected better of yougov but little the media does shocks me any more.”

    Well said. Such childish mud-slinging helps to divert attention from the stats which will really be decisive, speshly the responses to questions about whether folk think their family or selves will be better off or worse off financially in the next year or so.

  8. @rosieanddaisie


    “It doesn’t look like Labour will win 35%, which will make the case for FPTP even harder on the right.”

    Really don’t know how you can quantify at this stage when there are so many variables to settle down over the year to the election.”

    I think this is about the most sensible and objective comment I’ve read on this website so far.

  9. Roger M
    I would have thought (although I cede your two tier point) that the Conservative’s chief advantage in the rural areas is that they are populated with better off people.

  10. Apostrophe in wrong place sorry.

  11. ALLAN

    @ 2.02pm

    I think you are quite right.

    The looks thing is misleading. If he had likeability & the common touch , his bacon butty moment would have received the treatment that Boris’s hanging on a zip wire moment received.

    It’s the ability to “relate” to people in public-on the street, that he seems to lack.

    If you have it , your background doesn’t matter-both Boris & Farage have it.

    Alan Johnson has it from the other side of the tracks, but Prescott didn’t.

    It’s a strange & elusive quality-impossible to define , but easy to recognise when you encounter it.

  12. We already know that Ed has very low personal ratings. People that give Ed a positive rating now are likely to be die-hard Labour supporters. Given that, I find it very difficult to see who a sustained anti-Ed campaign in the press would be aimed at. The people who already don’t like him or die-hard Labour supporters? What would be the point of either?

  13. John Mann has it in my view-and understands when it is missing :-

    “John Mann, MP for Bassetlaw, said the results were the “fault of Ed Miliband and all the people at the top of the Labour Party,” adding that its “metropolitan elite” excluded ordinary Labour people. “Some of the pointy heads at the top of the party thought that Ukip doing well is what we needed,” he said.


  14. @Allan Chrisite

    Wither EM looks weird or not and that having a detrimental impact on his chances on becoming the next PM isn’t the point I have tried to make previously.

    “If you take Ann Widdecombe and John Prescott both would probably fail to make it onto the early stages of Mr & Miss Grimsby beauty contest but what both lacked in looks both more than made up for with charisma and character.

    Take dear old Boris, not exactly a Chippendale but has a likability factor about him and commands a presence.

    EM I’m afraid lacks that.”

    The people who say that how you sound and look do not count in an increasingly superficial and tele-visual age are not living in the real world, and are disingenuous anyway. We had all this with Gordon Brown, and John Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, and whoever you oppose, you pick faults. Look at Labour’s relentless class war attacks on Cameron and Osborne, despite Miliband being cut from exactly the same cloth – and being found out for being – guess what – equally out of touch as they are.

    It always amuses me when tribalists moan about the media when their leader or party is shown in an unflattering light – which they do without any media interference all on their own – then rejoice at the very same media for showing their enemies in exactly the same way.

    Guess what – you can’t make or invent charisma, or personality, or dynamism, or presentational skills, or any of the other things that make human beings attracted to one another. Tony Blair had all those things, Cameron has some of them – Miliband has NONE of them.

  15. COLIN

    Exactly spot on and thankfully you described the point much better than I did.

  16. I read a lot about UKIP doing well in the north,but considering most northerners would rather lick dogs backside then stick a cross next to a Tory or Lib Dem box,is it not going to push up the UKIP vote in safe Labour seats.Come the general Election,do you really think a left leaning person will put a cross next to UKIP instead of Labour.UKIP have become the new party of discontent,but they are being well over hyped in the current press.Labour did well in the local elections,and i don’t understand why they have let the press and TV dictate it was bad results.

  17. @ Allan Christie

    ‘If you take Ann Widdecombe and John Prescott both would probably fail to make it onto the early stages of Mr & Miss Grimsby beauty contest but what both lacked in looks both more than made up for with charisma and character.

    EM I’m afraid lacks that.’

    Now that is genuinely funny!! The idea that Prescott would somehow be more popular with the electorate than EM. You’re joking aren’t you … you must be, right!!!?

  18. NFR

    “The idea that Prescott would somehow be more popular with the electorate than EM. You’re joking aren’t you … you must be, right!!!?”

    Okay probably a bad example to use but I was trying to match Ann up with the perfect partner. ;-)

    Read Colin’s post though he has it spot on.

  19. shaun

    hex ackerly

  20. @Gordoning Sorry so late from page 1.
    ” it disturbs me so much that the media are now talking UKIP up as a major political party: it may well become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it causes major donors and savvy political operators to jump ship from the Tories, and introduce some sensible policies.”
    Why does a “new UKIP” with sensible policies (on economics, health, education etc disturb you? It is in any event part of Farage’s predicted path for UKIP: “after the EU elections we shall have a range of capable MEPs able to put forward a new UKIP manifesto for 2015” or words to that effect.

    I seem to come at PNS etc from a different direction to most. Perhaps it’s because I trained as a physicist, which is among other things the science of careful measurement, and what can go wrong with it. I am not in the game of producing some prediction at any cost.
    Suppose that you have a number of different fluids, in which you float a test boat. How deep will the hull sink in each? You know the fluids are different, and you have measured the hull draught in the past in similar fluids, but to all of them you have now mixed in a new fluid. I hope the analogy is clear.
    These fluids each make up a different percentage of a final fluid (say about 30%-35% in each case with large overlap between them), but each has a very roughly similar composition [they correspond to those who bother to vote in low turnout elections]
    Now you are to float your boat in the final fluid, 65% of whose composition is known only from previous experiments before new fluid was added in any experiment. You have actual new fluid results from only two of the limited fluid experiments, which did not together cover the whole range of fluids to be considered in the final fluid.
    Convince me that any calculations you make on those two fluids will give you (other than by chance) a result more accurate for the draught in the final fluid than assuming that the final fluid is as it was, plus some arbitrary percentage of the new fluid – arbitrary because you have to assume something in the range from “same amount of new fluid present” to “same percentage of new fluid present”
    Now consider that you will be predicting a value for the draught of your test boat in a year’s time, when the fluid, whatever its composition, will be subject to considerable external changes of temperature, pressure, further deliberate additions of other fluids or accidental contamination.
    I submit that you will be making guesses with errors rather larger than the +/_ 10% (3 points in 30 of VI) in normal polls. Not all of these errors will be random.

  21. Howard

    The argument is about the total number of councillors for a Party (which is what May et al mean) rather than why people do well. So a million voters in Bogtown might be represented by 100 councillors while surrounding Bogshire might have a million voters in 4 local authorities of 40 councillors plus another 40 on Bogshire Council. If Labour and Conservative get the same number of votes in local elections, but with Labour’s mostly in the town, the Conservatives will end up with twice the councillors for the same vote.

  22. RM
    Oh, apols, I thought your point was about the fact that ‘councillors = keen (or put-upon) activists’ so that there would be a better feet on the ground element for the Tories in the three tier authorities. Note the three tier. Although not usually declaring a party affinity, my experience is that in rural parish councils, the councillors will be mainly quietly supportive of the Conservatives, as evidenced by how one is treated (courteously) when reporting, as a LD district councillor, to them.

  23. “I think this is about the most sensible and objective comment I’ve read on this website so far.”

    Thanks Bernard but I assume you must have missed the excellent “the world is purple” series?

  24. @Howard:
    In my understanding, there are some odd-and-end population dynamics which tend to make lower-density areas tend to be inherently more conservative (with a small ‘c’) in certain regards. This tends to apply in the US, in Canada, in Australia, and so forth. In at least some sense, the rural-urban divide is one of the most consistent historical themes you can find.

    Not that left-wing parties can’t make inroads, but those inroads tend to come due to farm/poverty issues where relevant, not because of a social agenda.

  25. “a week ago 41% of people thought UKIP were racist, 40% did not. Now 46% think they are racist (up 5), 39% they are not (down 1”)
    What are the error bars on these figures? Does this mean only that a small percentage of ‘don’t knows’ have formed an opinion on the basis of last week’s largely one-sided coverage? (Assuming you agree it was largely one-sided)
    Try it again in a month.
    Try it again in a month discounting George Osborne’s instruction to respect those who vote for UKIP (if you can).

    It may be thought that I am simply denigrating polls. I am not – merely cautioning firmly all attempts to push their results beyond the accuracy and precision which they can bear.

  26. EM is a perfectly normal looking man who is not particularly photogenic.This is
    Unfortunate in a digital age such as this.However there are many politicians like this.I include Cameron who if you remember employed a personal photographer to make sure only flattering pictures were released to the press.
    As a teacher I have seen plenty of bullying over the years.It always targets personal appearance.It is despicable whoever does it.

  27. Oh no !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We have six hours of David Dimplebottom tonight.

    I shall switch to my cunning plan which I like to call

    “Not watching.”

  28. @Norbold

    I believe there was a survey (can’t remember by who) that found that ex-Lib Dems had the highest opinion of Miliband, higher than Labour’s core supporters. An anti-Ed campaign could peel them back off (even though they are unlikely to be sympathetic to the right wing press, the message will seep through). I doubt the anti-Labour media strategises to this extent though.

  29. Gray,

    If you just look at the map on this page above left, it will tell you all you need to know about rural and urban hegemonies. Roger M referred to an unusual situation of a three way ward in the locals. You can get these (and some constituencies) on the urban fringes where the social / wealth mix is more diffuse. A greenish approach can work in both environments when the local mood is right (e.g. a threatened bypass or some other major infrastructure proposal).

  30. John Prescott as ‘one of the left’ versus Miliband? If we take them both at their time in opposition and not being the party of government (i.e. Prescott in 1996 vs Miliband in 2014).

    I would say the left of Britain would have favoured Prescott. Knowing what they know now, neither would be particularly popular.

  31. @ Syzygy

    …but then Paddy described me as ‘intellectually dishonest’ on a thread for a post that I’d written…….
    Another good reason for me to believe that Ashdown’s views are ill informed & arrogant!

  32. gordoning

    I thought this London/non-London dichotomy had been thoroughly quashed in the previous threads? London pattern repeated in other major cities. More UKIP councillors (7) in one London borough – Havering (pop. c. 250,000) than across all of Birmingham (0), Manchester (0), Liverpool (0), Leeds (0), Newcastle (0), Bristol (1), Bradford (1), Sheffield (3) (combined pop. c. 4.5 million)

    Not really. There is a lower level of support in London for UKIP than there is in the rest of the country. The only areas where they did well – Havering, Bexley and the Crays in Bromley – are much more demographically like the adjacent areas of Essex or Kent than they are the rest of London.

    You also need to be careful in comparing number of councillors because wards in those cities tend to be even larger than in London and only a third of seats were up for election. Something like 1861 seats were up in London, while those cities combined would have had only had 200-300 seats up for grabs in total.

    That said the fact that UKIP gets less support in London (and indeed in demographically and culturally similar areas such as Manchester) doesn’t mean they have no support there at all – just that it is significantly lower, even if you take the technical differences into account. There has been far too much metropolitan elite self-congratulation around the differential (“Look at us – we’re better than you racist provincials”)[1]. Apart from anything else it tends to mean that the reasons for UKIP’s growth in support (one of which is that very inbred Bubble attitude) go unexamined.

    [1] See also Scotland. On Wings a few weeks back Rev Stu used a Survation poll showing “Too much immigration” as the main concern of 25% of Brits as a reason for why the Scots should disengage from those racists Down South. I had great fun pointing out that the equivalent Scottish sub-sample figure was 27%.

  33. @Shaun:
    What you said might actually be /why/ UKIP is doing well up north. It is also part of why other parties (such as the BNP) do well up there.

    I can’t speak to results back in the 50s and 60s off the top of my head, but I know that region hasn’t exactly been a hotbed of support for modern free trade policy, for example, in the last few decades.

    If we look back to the EU elections in 2009, the BNP+UKIP+ED got 26.5% of the vote in the North East, 26.2% in the North West, and 29.8% in Yorkshire and the Humber. You also have a lot of seats up north where those three combined got into the 10-15% range. So to answer your question, I can absolutely see them ticking a box for UKIP in no small part BECAUSE they won’t vote LibDem or Tory, particularly in seats where the LibDems were the main opposition force and/or where the Tories aren’t seen as being within striking distance.

    Rotherham is a good example of this: In 2010, Labour won about 45%. The Tories won 16.7% and the LibDems 16.0%. For a Labour voter who may not be thrilled with Labour, there is virtually no risk of letting a Tory “sneak in” in a seat like that. Also…16.3% of those voters did, in fact, put a cross by either UKIP or the BNP last time (and another 6.3% voted for an independent of unknown persuasion).

  34. “@ Syzygy

    …but then Paddy described me as ‘intellectually dishonest’ on a thread for a post that I’d written…….
    Another good reason for me to believe that Ashdown’s views are ill informed & arrogant! ”

    ….. and probably why he’s not allowed to post on this site – even with his pants-UP.

    He is a very pompous man indeed and likes to say “per adventure” regularly. This is probably ‘cos he’s the only bloke in the world to still know what it means to be fair.

  35. Valerie
    We can only guess but I feel the best answer of those who support Miliband is to direct posters to the Ashcroft marginal polls, just published and ask ‘what is it he’s doing wrong again, hmm?’

  36. Valerie


    You keep banging on ”

    That’s just rude.

  37. @ Amber and R&D

    Thanks for endorsements. I thought that the irony was stunning … However, Mr Ashdown can be a bit of a stranger to the truth even with his pants up!

  38. undermining Lib dem support for Ed?
    the most successful car advert of all time is claimed to be the beetle ad which said “your beetle stays ugly longer” THe success was in the fact vw knew the only americans interested in owning a beetle were university types who saw themselves as clever enough to see beyond media stereo-typing so attacks on Ed for being so unlike “us” might be counter-productive.
    This may link to the “educated cultured and young” comment. We need to remember this demographic is growing. Both points may also be linked to the comments about rurality. In the US, the most telling stat (alluded to already) is how close you live to your neighbours. This not only hints that poor folks in Montana may vote Reoublican but that enormously rich people in Manhattan will vote Democrat. The rise of UKIP may suggest this pattern is becoming more true here.

  39. @Barney C

    That suggests UKIP are more popular where immigration is lower, which is rather counter intuitive but seems evidentially true.

    It is difficult for UKIP to argue that it’s success is reflective of the public’s concern on immigration, when in areas with the most immigrants they fail. You really would have thought, if they were right, that the indigenous folk in those areas would vote en masse for UKIP.

  40. Like R&D the thought of another 6 hrs of Murdoch/Mail/Central Office spin on the BBC tonight is gruesome. Shaun rightly asks why Labour let them get away with it. I think that’s a question that needs to be asked repeatedly between now and GE. Most people probably don’t want to return to an era where Labour reacted to chronic media bias by excluding newspapers from Public Libraries, but saying and doing nothing is equally wrong. The BBC is the problem. I have no doubt they were more balanced 20-30 years ago. It’s not so much party political bias – it’s a bias towards accepting whatever party line comes out of Government. Indeed where I live there are two parallel streams of rather pusillanimous pro-govt presentation – one for the Coalition in Westminster and the other for the Labour Assembly in Cardiff (which actually has it’s own unspoken coalition with Plaid). I don’t like that either as a Labour supporter.

    On BBC1 at least the programme directors clearly feel it us in their own interest to present a pro Govt(pro Paymaster) line with the merest nod to opposition parties to give “balance”. On minority channels and notably Newsnight, an earlier, healthier, braver tradition of baling all the rascals over the coals still prevails, thought I fear for the future as we are in the last few weeks of JP and may lose Kirsty too UK-wide if there is a Yes vote in September.

    Coverage last Thursday night was appallingly biased, as several
    posters here (not just Lab ones) pointed out. There were absurd stories being peddled about Labour being trounced in Hull and several other places which just didn’t stand up to elementary factual analysis. Nick Robinson is simply not impartial. Curtice is not obviously biased, but is far too fond of trying to stretch the facts to make (up) a sensational narrative. These folk – indeed the entire BBC team – knew perfectly well from polls and count times that Labour were virtually certain to score large gains in metropolitan population centres and especially London early on Friday morning. Their response was to focus on the areas where Labour were weaker – and Cons,Libdems and UKIP stronger – until about 4am and then end their transmission. Narrative of Labour disappointment established, job done. Well done as several Labour MPs outside London also fell for it.

    I bet it’s similar tonight. There will be little said about Con and LibDem losses, only UKIP gains (dismissed as protest votes) and Labour disastrously not increasing it’s vote and seats to 100%….

  41. WB

    Yes, there does come a time when shouting at the telly isn’t as much fun as you’d hoped it would be.

  42. RAF
    Yes intuitively but not in reality. Negativitiy about migration will be highest in areas of very low migration but in economic decline. Which isnt to say that ethnic divisions can’t become acute in areas of high migration. Roger Mexico mentioned above that “too much migration” had a bigger response in Scotland where UKIP don’t tend to bother the scorers but UKIP views are as popular here but not the UKIP brand.
    UKIP views had a notably strong purchase on SNP voters according to the published survey this week..
    On the Euro elelction I think this sympathy for UKIP views may be paradoxically reflected in Scotland in a strong showing for the Tories. But I could be wrong!

  43. WB

    You’ve brilliantly articulated the failings of the BBC’s political analysis ( if you can call it that ) but I’m still uncertain whether to defend the BBC license fee or not – for all its faults I fear something even worse would be put in its place ( Sky News – ugh!

  44. @Colin: “Alan Johnson has it from the other side of the tracks, but Prescott didn’t.”

    Alan Johnson’s also (still) a fan of ID cards and supported the extradition of Gary McKinnon.

  45. @WB
    “Like R&D the thought of another 6 hrs of Murdoch/Mail/Central Office spin on the BBC tonight is gruesome”
    Agreed. Like R&C&P I will use the off switch. I am trawling the web looking for an alternative to Beeb but haven’t found a site which appeals yet.

  46. @Alan

    “despite Miliband being cut from exactly the same cloth”

    You’re kidding, I presume?

    Miliband comes from a refugee family from the intellectual middle class, with parents who started in the UK with virtually nothing. Cameron and Osborne come from the landed gentry, with a long history of inherited wealth and tax avoidance whether by extensive use of off-shore banking or inherited trust funds.

    Or perhaps you were referring to their attitude to expenses? Except Miliband was whiter than white on MPs’ expenses, while both Cameron and Osborne exploited the system to the maximum possible to line their own pockets.

    I’m sure the Tories would like to paint EM as being “cut from the same cloth”, but it simply doesn’t stand up. He may not be a working class man of the people, but the polls nevertheless show him to be regarded as more in touch.

    One thing that was really interesting the other night was to hear Tories starting to criticse DC using the same “He just doesn’t get it” meme that EM has used repeatedly in parliament. It may have been regarded by some as a bit naff, but if it taking hold to that extent it is something that has the power to do real damage, as a shorthand for the Tories being an out-of-touch ‘elite’.

  47. Labour has lost control completely of the news agenda. That is their problem and if they don’t fix it very soon they will lose next year. They seem incapable of putting a pro-Labour case and fir example allowed ‘the mess we are in’ narrative became established fact. It is the same with EM. He is no less charismatic than for example John Major but the Labour press team have allowed the press to continually ridicule him. Whoever is running the press operation should be sacked.

  48. @Roger Mexico: “There is a lower level of support in London for UKIP than there is in the rest of the country.”

    The ‘rest of the country’ isn’t a single place. There are many places outside London where support for UKIP is lower than it is in London.

  49. Gossip from the Yorks & Humber count

    1. UKIP
    2 Lab
    3 Con
    4. Grn
    5. Lib Dems who appear to be getting absolutely hammered.

  50. Time was, when the likes of myself dared to question the Labour view regarding unbridled immigration, I was inevitably a xenophobe and Nazi racist.
    Now we Tories who could not win a GE for years, with our racist, anti gay credo, have modernised. This has led to to the significant rise of a right wing, xenophobic, mildly racist, anti gay party. Does this mean that the great British public, now think the Blair years were not so hot?

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