Sunday polls

There were three polls in the Sunday papers today. Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of CON 32%. LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 19%.

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also had only a one point lead for the Labour party: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here. YouGov also had a couple of tracking questions seeking to measure what effect the heavy criticism of UKIP on things like racism over the last couple of weeks has had. YouGov repeated two questions from earlier in the campaign – a week ago 41% of people thought UKIP were racist, 40% did not. Now 46% think they are racist (up 5), 39% they are not (down 1). A fortnight ago 27% thought Nigel Farage himself was a racist, 50% said he wasn’t. This week that has narrowed to 38% racist (up 9), 43% not racist (down 7).

Together those two make it look pretty conclusive that the attacks on UKIP did damage perceptions of the party. More people think the party and Farage are racist. However, it does NOT necessarily follow that it damaged their vote – it could just have served to further entrench negative views amongst people who didn’t like UKIP anyway. It could even have both helped and harmed them – making their opponents more negative towards them, but also bolstering their anti-establishment credentials amongst their supporters. The results tonight won’t really tell us – if UKIP do well, it doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done better without all the negative coverage. If UKIP do less well than expected, it doesn’t mean they weren’t headed that way anyway.

Finally there was a new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday. The fieldwork for the Survation poll didn’t start until late on Friday, so unlike the YouGov and Opinium polls most respondents will have had a chance to see the local election results. Topline figures there, with changes since Survations last pre-election poll, are CON 27%(-1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 23%(+2). Survation show some of the highest UKIP scores anyway, but the 23% is a record high for UKIP even by their standards – the first in what I’d expect to be many polls showing a post-election boost for UKIP.

While not a poll, the Sunday Times also had the Rallings and Thrasher Equivalent National Vote calculation for the local elections. This is essentially a very similar exercise to the BBC’s projected national share, but calculated by a different team using different key wards – Rallings and Thrasher’s figures are Conservatives 30%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 11%, UKIP 18%. Slightly different from the BBC’s, but it essentially tells the same story – Labour with only a tiny lead over the Tories, UKIP doing worse than in 2013 when R&T had them on 22%.


1,118 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. “@ Neil A

    The biggest story for me is the extreme differential between London (and similar places) and the rest of the country.

    Very comforting for Labour. I wonder if the Labour high command are secretly plotting to encourage a few million more BME immigrants to come and settle around the Tory heartlands….”

    But the Tories apparently get quite a few votes from Indian and Pakistani communities. If these are able to move to affluent parts of the country like Surrey, they are more likely to be voing Tory than Labour.

    What people have to realise is that if there are an increasing number of people struggling to afford cost of living and they have increasing fears over job security, that they will turn to Labour. Why ? Labour are seen as a party that believe the state is there to look after its people and will offer better welfare protection than other parties. This is what the Tories are not understanding and stories in the media of people increasingly being taken off benefits, relying on food banks, will not help them. Since the financial collapse in 2007, people are feeling much more vulnerable and the parties have to be careful in recognising fear.

  2. Have Scotland still not declared yet or have the BBC not bothered updating?

    Current seat count is 62, with Scotland and NI yet to be added.

  3. Ten strongest UKIP areas at the European elections: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BojF4-1IIAAp7I_.png

    48% in Tendring? Where’s Norbold for a comment when you need him?

  4. Crying

  5. Putting the Scottish Euro vote figures into Electoral Calculus gives a GE projection of 27 Lab, 21 SNP, 4 Con, 3 LD (and 4 others who would actually all be Lab so call their real number 31).

    Now I don’t for a moment think there won’t be a swing back to Labour from this point and it probably tells us little of use for the 2015 GE from those 2 parties point of view but its an interesting data point for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

    I think both parties will look at this result with some cheer.

    It suggests Lib Dems can hold North East Fife even without Menzies Campbell, Ross Skye & Lochabaer and Orkney and Shetland are safe as we all thought and there is a reasonable chance for John Thurso and perhaps even Danny Alexander as well to hold on.

    Cons meanwhile have good chances to gain both Berwickshire and Aberdeenshire West while holding Dumfriesshire. I doubt they could take Dumfries and Galloway as the not Con vote will solidify around Russell Brown come election time. Edinburgh West probably worth some more effort for them as well though as a tight 3-4 way marginal could split nicely for them.

    My guess for GE Scotland 2015 (assuming a no vote in September) is for LAB 39 (-2) SNP 12 (+6) LD 5 (-6) Cons 3 (+2)
    9 seats to change hands:
    Dunbartonshire East LD – Lab
    Edinburgh West LD – SNP
    Gordon LD – SNP
    Argyll & Bute LD – SNP
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LD – Con
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk LD – Con
    Dundee West Lab – SNP
    Ochil & South Perthshire Lab – SNP
    Falkirk Lab – SNP

  6. “@ norbold

    Crying”

    Why ?

  7. Anybody know where I can find the detailed election data (i.e sub region)for the UK? It’s very difficult to analyse the results without it.

  8. Actually my overall comment is much the same as BCROMBIE’s.

    I’m not sure you can tell much from this with regard to the GE. The focus on this election was Europe ( obviously). People who are strongly opposed to Europe in the main would be much more inclined to come out and vote and, of course, there is the “kicking” faction, those who take these sort of opportunities to protest at the main parties.

    Next year, more than twice as many people will vote and they will not be fixated on Europe or even immigration – if they had been they would have voted in this election. Who they will vote for is anybody’s guess. Also many of those in the “kicking” faction who voted UKIP this time will not do so in the GE.

    There is also the question of UKIP’s manifesto. No-one has the slightest idea what they’re policies are on issues other than Europe and immigration. And whenever an interviewer quoted from their 2010 manifesto, the UKIP interviewee was always quick to point out that wasn’t their position now and we’d have to wait and see. Their 2015 manifesto will come under intense scrutiny. My guess is that when it does come out it will send Labour inclined “kickers” running back to Labour.

    Just a quick reference to Tendring. It was very disappointing of course. What it will mean for the two constituencies covered by Tendring is another matter, partly because of what I’ve said above, partly because in Clacton at least we have an ultra Euro sceptic MP in Douglas Carswell anyway. Why vote UKIP when you have Carswell?

  9. I enjoyed the BBC reporter tramping through a Boot Fair trying to find someone who voted-or even knew there was a European Election.

    He made one of the Beeb’s more relevant comments-that for the large majority of people in UK , these elections were irrelevant.

    In the frenzied bubble of UKPR analysis , we must not forget that-most people in this country didn’t vote. That was the biggest protest.

    Farage made an interesting comment midst the flight to the political fringe across Europe-that the most significant effects of this election would not be in Brussels, but in National Parliaments.

    I thought Ummuna on BBC tv tried to link the result across Europe with cost of living/austerity. I can understand why he wants to do that , but the results don’t support him.

    Sky’s superior analysis of national results showed three strands of protest.:-
    Anti immigration/ anti EU
    Anti austerity
    Anti “traditional politics”

    The last is exampled by Italy -& Grillo and his “party” didn’t win.
    The second seems to have only two significant examples-Greece & Spain-both in receipt of massive bailouts.
    Leaving the first as by far the major factor-exampled by France, Austria, Denmark , & UK. & no doubt others ( I would welcome an analysis by Virgilio)

    Coming back to that remark by Farage, the focus now is well & truly on how Cons & Lab respond ( particularly Cons) ; how GE 2015 VI trends over the next 12 months , and how Farage’s promise to ruthlessly target will impact on the day.

    If this EU wide disenchantment with the effects of Free Movement & the wider aspects of “remote” governance sustains, then I think Cons-unlike Labour or LDs at least have a chance of catching some of the wave.

    Farron said-honestly I thought-that they had to preach the EU gospel -and he would do it over again. But its a gospel large numbers of people don’t want to hear. It looks dire for LDs at present.

    Can Labour suddenly launch an EU Reform policy platform with any real credibility? Can they propose serious immigration control without sending supporters off to the Greens? I get the impression that Labour still thinks this will fade .

  10. Norbold

    Dream of a fight to the death between Carswell and a Kipper.
    Lab come through the middle to take the prize and you’re laughing not crying!

  11. When it comes down to it these are EU elections, not Westminster. No one other than UKIP may have anything to celebrate but none of these results is particularly important and they tell us absolutely nothing about next year’s general election result.

  12. The Euros have been in accordance the locals for Labour: little ventured, little gained.

  13. Colin,

    I think that Labour have a prudent “say nothing” policy in Europe. They can’t credibly offer a referendum to eurosceptics and they have little to gain (and plenty to lose) by being outspoken europhiles, so they’re wisely avoiding the issue.

  14. R HUCKLE
    “@ norbold
    Crying
    Why ?”

    Tendring, where I live, saw UKIP’s 3rd highest vote in the whole of Britain. Don’t tell me that wouldn’t make you cry!?

  15. BILL

    Hmmm-I noticed that Ummuna said they were in favour of EU “reform” this morning.

    So he clearly knows this is the right sound byte & hasn’t avoided it.

    But unless there is a policy to go with it, making yet another generalised indication is actually worse than avoiding it.

    If politicians don’t understand that empty promises & vacuous noises about “Europe” won’t wash anymore, then they understand nothing about what has just happened.

  16. I think the main problem for Labour is the In-Out referendum question.

    The Tory pitch to the electorate is “we will try to reform the EU and if we can’t we’ll leave it”.

    The Labour pitch is essentially “we will try to reform the EU and if we can’t we’ll stay in it anyway”.

    It’s a bit of a damp squib. A better line of attack would probably be to focus on exactly what kind of reform the Tories are looking for, and rubbish that, rather than being drawn on their own plans.

  17. R Huckle

    “Very comforting for Labour. I wonder if the Labour high command are secretly plotting to encourage a few million more BME immigrants to come and settle around the Tory heartlands….”

    I think that some would argue that was exactly the policy under the last Labour government. Personally I think that’s going to far but it is a widespread view in my neck of the woods.

  18. @Colin

    Are the Greens known to be anti Immigration control? They’ve always come across as pretty Eurosceptic in both manifesto and media to me.

  19. Breaking News

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has sent a message of congratulations to Nigel Farage.

    In the pre-scripted state censorship statement a spokesman for the DPRK said.

    “Wrong colours but welcome to the world of one party states”

  20. Meanwhile Raúl Castro of Cuba has sent his condolences to EM

    He said..

    “camarada, win some lose some”

  21. BCrombie
    The London VS the Rest is a nonsense narrative if you look at the detail.

    London –
    Lab 37, Con 22, UKIP 17, Green 9, Lib 7

    West Midlands –
    Lab 27, Con 24, UKIP 31, Green 5, Lib 6

    But extract Birmingham from that –

    Birmingham –
    Lab 40, Con 17, UKIP 22, Green 6, Lib 9

    West Midlands (Minus Birmingham) –
    Lab 24, Con 26, UKIP 33, Green 5, Lib 5

    Birmingham fits the pattern of voting that London did. I believe I remember seeing similar results for Cambridge, Oxford, Manchester, Liverpool, etc but I’ll keep looking.

    I’ll continue crunching numbers, but I suspect that you’ll see similar patterns for major cities.

  22. All this about the general election is very interesting, but when are we going to address the important questions: who won the UKPR prediction competition, and which pollsters won the real one?

  23. @Norbold
    cry with joy

  24. @NEIL A: “I think the main problem for Labour is the In-Out referendum question.”

    I think they’ve avoided that problem by not promising a referendum. Cameron, though, will now face increasing pressure to hold a referendum asap.

  25. TingedFringe: so if I understand you, basically London just *looks* special because it has a region to itself, whereas other cities have their effect diluted?

    Makes sense ….

    I realise that I’ve never seen a map like this:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-elections-2012-results-map

    for the UK, indicating not just party but degree of support — anybody know if one exists? Sub-constituency resolution will get you bonus points! (I’m not sure whether those data are available, though).

  26. “The London VS the Rest is a nonsense narrative if you look at the detail.”

    The south-west has performed well – replaced a Tory and a LibDem with Labour and a Green; no gains for UKIP.

  27. Probably the weirdest political scenario in my life.

    Maybe we’ll look back on it as the time both Labour and Tories started to completely lose it.

    Maybe it will revert to Nobby Normal.

    Probably a bit of a mess somewhere in the middles.

    My own view, for wot its wurf, is that the Tories low top will stop them winning, as it has done for 22 years.

    The European agenda is now a total mess and I have no idea how the 372 countries now part of the Union will extricate themselves from it.

    With difficulty as they say………

    Maybe they’ll all vote to leave. Germany certainly should.

    With difficulty as they say………

  28. ROGERH

    A brilliant analysis by Mason-thanks.

  29. @ Alisdair,

    Jeremy Vine was jumping all over some last night, but they were superimposed over a coloured map so they were uninterpretable.

    I’ve seen some decent ones for 2010- want the links, or do you just want them for this election?

  30. Overall I was pleased with the result of the European elections across Europe. As somebody who wants the UK to leave the EU the increase in the Eurosceptic vote across the board, (even in Germany) was fantastic.

    I was also pleased to see that my forecast was not so bad (UKIP28, Lab26 and CON25) compared to the actual result. I think I was the only poster on here who gave Labour only a 1% point over the Tories.

    Obviously the result was great for Farage and UKIP but i suspect the Tories were pleased with further confirmation of their closeness to Labour and their potential for further recovery that the voting suggests. Not very good for Labour and a disaster for LibDems.

  31. “@ norbold

    R HUCKLE
    “@ norbold
    Crying
    Why ?”

    Tendring, where I live, saw UKIP’s 3rd highest vote in the whole of Britain. Don’t tell me that wouldn’t make you cry!?”

    Well, perhaps you need to work a bit harder in cavassing support for Labour !

    My experience of talking to people from that side of the country and also from TV news programme interviews, is that there is a significant part of the population who are fed up of the pressures on services/housing, caused in their opinion by immigration. They are not racists, but they are fearful of the numbers of immigrants who have moved into their area in the last 10 years or so. They also think that more crime is being committed by immigrants.

    The answer is that more money needs to be provided for services and more houses need to be built. Government needs to make resource available for the number of people in the country. If they are not doing this, then they are failing. This applies to all parties in government. Labour has a different policy to the other parties and needs to sell it better. What is wrong with allowing local authorities to borrow money to build or buy up social housing ? It is politicially toxic to have a public sector solution, rather than relying on private sector ?

  32. Mathematically challenged Guardian journalist.
    “In a stunning warning to the established political parties, UKIP was on course to win as much as 28% of the national poll. That is a near doubling of the 16.5% it secured in the last European elections in 2009, when it came second to the Tories with 13 seats.”
    Er, No , that would be 33%.
    UKIP did well enough without any exaggeration.
    Be interesting to see how the UKIP MEPs behave once they have their feet under the table in the EU parliament.
    “Do turkeys vote for Christmas?”

  33. @RogerH,

    Re: InOut referendum.

    I agree with you. I was responding to the idea that Labour should put forward a reform agenda for the EU. My point is that the InOut referendum issue makes that the wrong course, because without promising one, any attempt to reform the EU is a bit hollow (or at least will look that way).

    If you can’t or won’t offer a referendum, better not to talk too much about reform. Better to ignore the issue and focus on Tory policy. Which is more or less what Labour have been doing to date.

    The kernel of the “reform” question is free movement of peoples. It’s the one area of EU policy that the EU is adamant is non-negotiable. But it’s the one area of policy that most eurosceptics have in mind when they talk about reform of the EU. If the Tory “reforms” are just about avoiding the social chapter and taxes on banks, Labour can make plenty of hay with that.

    In the unlikely event that Cameron adds immigration to the list of his demands (given that we know he wants to stay in, that he has promised to campaign for out if he doesn’t get the package he asks for, and that he knows the EU would never agree to ending free movement) then Labour might struggle to attack him. But for now I think it’s the safest ground.

  34. East of England –
    Lab 17, Con 28, UKIP 34, Green 8, Lib 7

    Cambridge City –
    Lab 28, Con 16, UKIP 12, Green 20, Lib 21

    Norwich City –
    Lab 30, Con 14. UKIP 21. Green 24, Lib 7

    Peterborough strongly UKIP/Con, so doesn’t fit city/elsewhere pattern.
    Lab 25, Con 26, UKIP 33, Green 6, Lib 5

    But Cambridge and Norwich both very strongly Lab/Green, despite UKIP/Con absolutely dominating the region.

  35. I don’t know how it could happen tactically but I think many in UKIP are quite happy to help the Tories lose the next election, ditch Cameron and become a “sensible”, totally Euro sceptic party – then maybe a coalition of like minds and get back in five years.

    HOW they can achieve that I don’t know.

  36. “Mathematically challenged Guardian journalist.”
    I think that it’s going to be safe to assume ‘Mathematically challenged X journalist’ today.

  37. It’s a real shame, given that the BBC Vote2014 programme had their own map *with subregional results* that they can’t just share their data.

    P.S – If anybody can spot errors in my calculations at all, please correct me. I am extremely happy to be completely and utterly wrong.

  38. Spearmint
    Yes indeedy !
    One final comment ( from me that is ), Ming Campbell stated explicitly the LD ’40 seat strategy ‘ this morning, that they will be aiming to hold the balance of power. First off, if I was a LD activist outside the precious chosen strongholds I would be very pis*ed- off. Secondly, this strategy will encourage the other parties to target the LDs , on the grounds of overweening bloody cheek !

  39. BBC gutter politics again.

    Asked EM is he would like to congratulate Nigel Farage.

    He does.

    Next caption at bottom of screen.

    “EM congratulates EM”

    Shocking and cheap.

  40. My holiday to Greece this summer is beginning to feel like travelling to Spain in 1936.

    Look out for my memoir “Homage to Kefalonia”, due for publication by Victor Gollancz sometime in the Autumn.

  41. #if

  42. Calls for Nick Clegg to stand down.

    Why?

  43. I see that one of UKIP’s new anti-establishment MEPs is the Earl of Dartmouth.

  44. Hey, Dartmouth is a very radical place.

    Just the other day someone put their tea in their cup before their milk. Extraordinary…

  45. “Calls for Nick Clegg to stand down.
    Why?”
    Because they’ve taken a real electoral hit every single year and party members are starting to panic as they approach 2015?

  46. Italy providing a model of level-headed continuity, apparently. That’s not something you hear every day.

  47. Manchester

    Conservatives 8.3
    Green 12.5
    Labour 51.8
    LibDem 7
    UKIP 16

  48. Does not look to have been such a bad week for the Conservatives, Labour have done well, but not great which must be a tad worrying for them.

    All to play for in 2015 then.

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