Local Results Thread

Polls are closed, counting in about half the councils is tonight, the other half tomorrow morning (the Press Association have a nifty list of when they expect particular councils to announce results here). Feel free to stick around and discuss results as they come in here.

In the meantime, tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%.


448 Responses to “Local Results Thread”

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  1. Any figures on turnout %s? I see that Croydon was due to declare at 2 a.m. on the englishvotes site, but that that now has been put back to 9 a.m. Are we a long way behind on declarations, and, if so, what might this mean for the rest of the day?

    -It might mean it took longer to unfold the Euro Election ballot papers than expected.

    Average 35% Turnout as expected poor turnout has favoured UKIP

  2. @Billy Bob:
    I’m reminded of something that went on in my city (in the US) for a long time. Basically, the local party leadership in both parties decided that it would better serve our city to have legislators stack up seniority and get onto key committees than to try and knock off the other guy to grab a seat.

    The result was that you saw many, many years where once someone won a seat they were either not contested or where the “other” party’s candidate just wouldn’t get local support as volunteers “happened” to focus elsewhere. Granted, that is the US…but this went on more or less regardless of what the state-level party leadership might have wanted.

    There was no formal pact, but there was an understanding reached for the most part. That’s what I see happening here: A bit of steering, some judicious applications of funding to one seat over another, and maybe Farage standing some candidates down if he doesn’t plan on contesting every seat in Great Britain (which at this point he might well want to do…he likely won’t lose all too many deposits at this stage).

  3. The main parties plus the Lib/dems will try and claim some comfort from the results.

    Labour we took seats from the Tories.

    Tories. We didn’t lose as many as expected.

    Libs… It could had been worse.

    Of course all the above are somewhat true but had this been an election based on a PR system then all 3 parties would had been decimated.

    The FPTP system to a large extent hides the true picture of what’s really happening in councils in England.

  4. The LDs seem to be replicating their bye-election performances, i.e. crashing in places where they are 2nd or 3rd party but doing OK where they have a strong base. In Sutton and Eastleigh they’ve not just held but increased their majority, and in the only council they’ve lost [Portsmouth] they remain the biggest party and can form a coalition with Labour.

  5. Does Ukip have any incentive to help the Tories?

    The current Tory victory scenario- the Conservative Party under the control of the Cameroons for the indefinite future, with an EU referendum following a sham renegotiation after which the Tory leadership, Labour, the Nats and the Lib Dems will all be campaigning for an ‘In’ vote and will almost certainly win- is Farage’s worst nightmare.

    He wants to either push the Tories further right or supplant them, and he can’t do either if Cameron wins.

  6. @Gray

    Farage this morning has indicated that Ukip will now draw up a list of target seats and “throw everthing at them.”

  7. @ Adam caim

    They appear to have lost Kingston which is Ed Davey’s seat. Seems to be a straight Tory gain but not confirmed as far as I can tell by the results that have come in so far.

  8. It rained , as anticipated good for Kippers, as 65% of the Electorate couldn’t be arsed to vote.

  9. On current trends the Tories look likely to lose around 500 seats, which is at the worse end (for the Tories) of expectations I think? And Labour to gain perhaps 400, which is a good solid performance in line with what was expected.

    Overall, nothing too earth shattering all round. Not much different to what the polling would suggest. The Tories were expecting a drubbing and got one, but that has to be set against a clear narrowing in the nation GE opinion polls.

    My main interest will be on analyzing seats which the Tories lost to Labour or LDs and seeing what factor UKIP was in those seats. If it was decisive (and I suspect it was) this will feed the arguments both of anti-UKIP “Vote UKIP get Labour” voices and pro-UKIP “we need to have a pact” voices.

  10. @NEIL A:

    I’ve only been following few London results at the ward level, but there UKIP haven’t really been a factor in the seat changes I’ve seen. The more obvious effect is former LD protest voters going back to Labour. Is it time for a “London Independence Party” maybe?

  11. Neil A

    There is more spin in your post than in a kids Spinning Top.

  12. @Billy Bob:
    There are two easy counters. One is that Farage is blowing hot air to at least some extent. Nobody gets up on stage or on TV and talks about the deals they’re trying to cut or why they want to work with another party.

    The other is that there’s always discretion in picking the targets, especially since it isn’t like UKIP can go back and find marginals and targets with any reliability. Presumably, seats not on the target list would get substantially less attention…

  13. @ Adam,

    I wouldn’t say losing Cambridge, Portsmouth and Kingston was a brilliant endorsement for the Lib Dems’ fortress strategy. Their Haringey result was also dire, and it’s not like they controlled the council before but that’s Lynne Featherstone’s constituency, isn’t it?

    They’re not collapsing everywhere. That Eastleigh result was fantastic. But the theory they can hold up anywhere they have an MP is looking pretty threadbare.

    @ Neil A,

    You really think +400 for Labour? Even with the good London results that seems very high.

  14. The Tories have done badly and on this performance have no chance of improving on 2010 next year…Labour continue to gain.

    Although it’s true that UKIP is the main story, the hidden story is the level of denial by supposedly neutral commentators in the media about what is clearly going to happen next year.

    Conservative can’t win and labour really don’t have to improve at all to take a lot of seats.

  15. @Spearmint,,

    The count in Sheffield is about to begin. To really examine their fortress strategy, keep an eye on Crookes and Stannington!

  16. Just to touch on the TV debates before the 2015 GE.

    I think it would be a bad idea to have Farage in a debate with the 3 main established parties because as we saw on QT last night it’s 3 against one and this would simply carry through onto the TV leader debates.

    Best way would be to have one on one debates between two leaders giving Farage a level platform to debate.

  17. It looks like UKIP are having a really poor set of results. Fewer seats than the LibDems and no break-throughs anywhere, in what was probably their best chance this parliament.

    Back to politics as usual.

  18. Hal,

    But to watch the BBC coverage you’d think Nigel Farage was the new PM!

  19. These London results that are slowly emerging are very interesting. UKIP making very little headway and Labour appearing to be performing well; certainly more strongly than in the rest of England where results have been patchy and where UKIP are causing complete mayhem.

    What appears to be different about London is that Labour aren’t gaining as a result of a strong UKIP vote disabling the Tories, they look as if they may well be taking votes directly from the Tories and Lib Dems. More analysis required, obviously, and way too early for pundits to be making solemn judgements about what these results mean. There looks to be a lot of local peculiarities emerging too, much as you’d expect with local council elections. Probably why Anthony’s advice about not reading too much in to them from a Westminster point of view is essentially sound. Expect that advice to roundly ignored though, although I accept that perceptions and tendentious narrative can be more important than reality sometimes. The way these results are spun can have significant political effects, particularly on internal party dynamics and machinations. Permission to panic, Captain Mainwaring.

    National Apathy Party on the march again, though. Turnout estimated at about 35%. To emphasise the depths we’ve plumbed on voter engagement, I heard a sage on the news this morning actually saying that he thought that was quite a decent turnout!!!

    Dear, oh dear.

  20. can’t see UKIP going into a deal with the Tories. They have done a job reaching out to the right wing “working class” vote, for whom the Tories are toxic. A cosy deal might well placate the golf club brigade, but they aren’t the votes UKIP need help them to step on electorally.

  21. NICKP

    You’re putting spin on spin…stop it. ;-)

    The Tories tore strips off Labour in the local elections when Blair was in power yet Blair won easily at the subsequent GE’s

    Also there is the issue of who is trusted to lead the country and it aint Ed according to the polls.
    _____

    HAL

    Well that’s because of the FPTP system but it will be vey very interesting to see if you come up with the same “Back to politics as usual” when the Euro results come in which are under a PR system.

    If Labour fail to win more than 500 extra council seats and fail to come in first in the Euros then that is bad for Labour.

    Of course I’m spinning spin.

  22. I’d also like to point out, in the spin department, the following:
    -The Tories will want to play up the “How UKIP Screwed Us” angle, both to deflect attention from any of their weaknesses and to scare Tory voters away from voting UKIP.
    -Labour will want to do some of the same, both to keep heat off of Ed and to try and “cook out” UKIP voters. An old Spitting Image comes to mind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TFx9u1t1LY&feature=kp
    -The LibDems are playing up “How This Wasn’t Really A Bad Night”.
    -And UKIP is, of course, pointing out “How Well We Did With FPTP” and making a big point of how they hit Labour and the Tories with equal opportunity to avoid the “Vote UKIP, Get [Other Party]” stigma.

  23. @ Hal,

    Lol!

    To be fair to them, it is from a standing start in many places. I’m sure Labour’s 1906 council election results weren’t spectacular either…

  24. \despite Kington, what is true is that the LDs are holding up better in general where they are defending against the Tories.

    Not uniform of course and enough still to lose control in certain areas but enough to suggest that, while the first 8 Tory/LD targets may fall, they will hold 5-10 of the dozen seats requiring 3-4% ish Tory-LD swing.

    A swing level a 36% v 14% national vote share at the GE would give.

    Don’t be shocked if 2-3 of the ‘easier’ 8 hold as well.

  25. I don’t know whether anybody has already made this point, but it seems to me that commentators are getting overexcited about the UKIP “surge”.

    “Swings” in voting patterns are generally caused not by people changing sides but by different people voting. The European issue motivates UKIP type supporters to actually vote (having previously been non-voters), whereas it is a turn-off for most people. People going out to vote for UKIP in the Euro-election are quite likely to also vote for UKIP in the local election. Hence the apparent “surge” in the local election.

    BTW why are so many counts delayed until the following day? I cannot remember such a slow election count.

  26. I think the lesson for Labour based on last nights results, is that they have to persuade some of the people who backed UKIP, to think about voting Labour in the general election. There will be working class people who think that their wages have been affected by immigration or who are worried about their childrens future jobs prospects. They may have backed UKIP, because they like what they have said about immigration pressures hurting the country.

    Miliband ran the recent campaign to try to deal with these concerns, but this does not appear to have worked well enough. Perhaps Labour will have to say to voters that a vote for UKIP in some areas, will mean a Lib Dem or Tory MP. The message will have to be clearer, rather than about general cost of living issues.

  27. NeilA
    We agreed that London was different , in a positive truly Multi cultural way,
    didn’t we. Seems to be coming through in the results.
    Spearmint
    Malcolm Bruce was giving it max on the BBC, anyone would think losing a third of their councillors was part of a victorious strategy.

  28. I think that the LD result in Eastleigh in particular is probably down to CONs and LABs voting tactically to keep UKIP out – that was probably the only place up this week where UKIP might conceivably have hoped to finish with most seats; the tactical switching has stopped that. Though being billed as a loss in a strong-hold retaining most seats in Portsmouth is a decent result given the Hancock scandal and the national standing.

    Looking completely hopeless that Lynne Featherstone will retain her seat, and I think Tom Brake and Paul Burstow will lose theirs too. Brent Central is probably an even more hopeless cause than Hornsey and Wood Green. Ed Davey might just be OK on personal vote, as should Vince Cable. Bermondsey and Old Southwark would probably go LAB if Simon Hughes was standing down but he’s a local institution and should survive. So LDs probably down to 3 seats in London

  29. @R Huckle:
    The issue is that in a lot of seats, that won’t cut any mustard. In the South, there are plenty of seats that Labour just isn’t a major presence in. Aldershot would be one example (where Labour hasn’t come second since 1970 and seems likely to poll about 10%). Eastleigh is another good example. North Cornwall is a particularly poignant example: Labour lost their deposit there in 2010.

    There are plenty of seats where the lack of a viable Labour party is going to be compounded by the LibDems’ meltdown. At that point, especially if UKIP continues to poll well in the South, both major parties are going to have a bit of a hard sell about voting for UKIP risking letting in the other party.

  30. NICKP
    The Tories have done badly and on this performance have no chance of improving on 2010 next year…Labour continue to gain.
    Although it’s true that UKIP is the main story, the hidden story is the level of denial by supposedly neutral commentators in the media about what is clearly going to happen next year.
    Conservative can’t win and labour really don’t have to improve at all to take a lot of seats.

    If only they were as ‘neutral’ as you Nick. :-)

  31. @Gray

    Farage has made it abundantly clear recently that he would jump at the chance of a coalition with David Cameron, and Farage would be in a much stronger position viv-a-vis Tory backbenchers than Clegg has been.

    Ukip staying away from Lab/Con marginals and being given a free reign in seats where Tories can’t win may or may not thwart Miliband, but it’s a risk Tory strategists will be tempted to take.

  32. i can’t see how the tories improve on 2010 next year, tbh.
    or am i missing some cunning point.

    labour haven’t done great, but they don’t need to do that well to pick up the 35 seats or so they need to be the largest party. I think, as i have done for the last 2 years, that mili will win 10 seats off the lib dems and about 30 off the tories next year to get to 300 seats or so.

  33. Watching this coverage you’d think Labour had lost!

  34. “If only they were as ‘neutral’ as you Nick. :-)”

    LOL. Kettles & teapots spring to mind.
    ————————
    The Beeb seem to be reporting a different election on some other planet. Spin. Some subtle, some less so. The stats tell a different story.

  35. @GRAY

    Labour does much better in heavily populated areas of the country. If you go onto the Skynews site, they have a very good graphic of the results, which actually show that Labour did quite well in some parts of the south of England. e.g Cambridge, Hastings. I am expecting some better results today, as the local council results are still being counted.

  36. I couldn’t help noticing as I arrived in Croydon this morning, how much better run it looked.

  37. ozwald

    it’s amazing, ain’t it? Denial doesn’t describe it.

    Complete reinvention of reality to fit a narrative.

  38. @ Mr Nameless

    I know some on here are critical of Sky News but most of the time I’ve felt them to be reasonably balanced but this morning I felt they were awful and especially biased against Labour.

    They also had some very dodgy looking extrapolation of local election results into the General Election prediction which I always thought was an absolute no no thing to try and do.

    Then flashed across my screen it said something about Sky News prediction that UKIP would win Castle Point next year- I rushed to Anthony’s election guide and they didn’t even stand a candidate last time!

  39. @Shevii:
    You are correct that UKIP did not stand a candidate in Castle Point, but I suspect that was to give Bob Spink a clear run as an independent. Considering their strong result in 2005, this seems to be the most likely reason, since I believe Spink was sympathetic to them by and large.

  40. This is such a re-run of the last local elections in England – Labour doings as well as expected (& the bar had been set pretty high for Labour last time around) but the media telling us they’d done badly; Conservatives & LibDems losing lots but the media telling us they’ve both done quite well; & UKIP doing well whilst not actually winning much but the media making it sound like they control half the councils in England now… I can imagine GE2015 where Labour win with the Conservatives a fairly close second but everybody who watches TV expecting PM Nigel in #10 despite him being the only UKIP MP in the entire country!

  41. I am expecting some polling over this weekend about Ed Milibands leadership, with question asked as to whether Labour should replace him. Also who should lead Labour into the general election.

    Personally, I am not sure any party would be sensible to change leader, less than a year before an election. It would be different if there had been some massive issue and there was a ready replacement waiting to take over. At the moment, I am not sure Labour have got an alternative leader. If they changed to yvette Cooper, could Ed Balls serve as chancellor ?

  42. @NickP
    Indeed it is amazing. AuntyBeeb happily regurgitates the spin fed to them, speshully the first few introductory lines of the newspiece. Tiz good that you noticed an improvement in Croydon!

    Noo-one in the commentariat mention that some who normally vote Lab are quite happy to lend their vote to UKIP (as a one-off), cos they can see the long-term benefit of UKIP replacing LD as the third party.

  43. i am not inclined to labour, but i agree the elements of the tory media, sky, the times etc. are spinning furiously against labour. the fact is labour and ukip made significant gains and the tories and lib dems have had quite significant losses.

    the fact that this comes from a 2010 election in which the tories did not get a majority, i fail to see how these results show a labour collapse. i expect in 2015 the coalition parties will perform signficantly worse than they did in 2010…or am i missing something?

  44. @NickP
    Some of the reporting reminds me of the joke about Sports Day at the Kremlin. A race was won by an American. A Brit came second and a Russian finished last.

    The result was reported as “American third from last. Brit second from last and the Russian just lost by a whisker due to foul play by rivals. “

  45. How can anybody call these elections until Redditch has declared is quite beyond me!

    :-)

  46. What has happened to Labour’s media operation ?

    Even in the campaign: Their messages are not clear and they are not presenting an exciting alternative to the Cons. Polling shows Labours policies are popular but they haven’t been able to package them into a coherent vision. The NEED marketing folk and mefia people – they don’t have to be New Labour policy wise but they need to rediscover the new labour marketing and media professionalism.

  47. Ozwald
    What on earth is “the long-term benefit of UKIP replacing LD as the third party”, particularly from a Labour voter’s perspective?
    The Lib Dems used to perform a very useful function in British politics, being just the right size to give ideas an airing without actually having to worry about winning a majority, and allowing voters in any region to “clean house” without voting for the hated opposite party if their local representatives were corrupt or complacent or otherwise deficient. (Something the Americans are sorely missing…could you bring yourself to vote for a rebuplican to get rid of a corrupt Democrat?)
    Then the LDs ruined it all by joining a government, and UKIP are now our all-purpose pop-up opposition party where one of the major parties isn’t viable or palatable.
    UKIP taking that function will drag the UK conversation considerably to the right.

  48. Will you lot stop trying to spin these results! The facts are:

    1. Labour has failed to show itself capable of winning outright, It ought to be a long way ahead of where it is if it to form a government with any credibilty; it may end up as the largest party after the next GE but will find it difficult to govern effectively. Their only real hope is that UKIP and the Tories fail to make enough headway in their respective target seats and Labour gets in on 32% of the vote – and that’s hardly a ringing endorsement!

    2. The Tories will try to make informal arrangements with UKIP, but UKIP’s vote is so unpredictable, taking from both left and right, that any strategy other than outright confrontation means entering into a total unknown

    3. The LDs will have to rebuild over the next ten to fifteen years to reach what they had achieved in the first decade of this century.

    4. UKIP may win one or two seats, but it seems to me that they will cause great unpredictablitiy – that is, mayhem.

    Like I said earlier – we’re looking into dense fog, so stop pretending that all is wonderful on your particular part of the political spectrum

  49. @Eddie
    “What on earth is “the long-term benefit of UKIP replacing LD as the third party”, particularly from a Labour voter’s perspective?”
    ————————–
    Lab will be happy to see the right-wing vote split between Con & UKIP.

  50. Has anyone ever done a study of racism in voting?

    Just surfing idly at various results this morning and obviously you don’t know if there were local issues or how active/well known a candidate was but found at least one example where you had a split ward with the Asian candidate, higher up the ballot paper, missing out.

    Almost every result I look it seems like you can knock up to 10% off the vote an Asian sounding name gets as compared to their colleagues.

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