Local Results Thread

Polls are closed, counting in about half the councils is tonight, the other half tomorrow morning (the Press Association have a nifty list of when they expect particular councils to announce results here). Feel free to stick around and discuss results as they come in here.

In the meantime, tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%.


448 Responses to “Local Results Thread”

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  1. The parallels between these results and the way that the 5 Star movement of Beppe Grillo took 25% of seats in the Italian GE, is stark… including the popular fuzziness as to what the Grillini policies actually comprise.

  2. Labour lose Thurrock to NOC due to UKIP … surprising result. Local issues ?

  3. Good God I hope this come true. I would be Karma for being an all-round sh*tehawk.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27514880

  4. I find it hard to believe that there’ll have been a huge anti-UKIP turnout in the European election if the local election results wind up being quite bland for the Westminster parties. I had a feeling a lot of the internet smack talk was coming from people who were a liitle more interested in making jokes than they were in actually voting, and nothing about tonight has changed my mind so far.

    On the flip side, if UKIP do end up winning on Sunday the local election results will show that they do have a large problem with retaining votes domestically (in terms of winning a good chunk of seats at a GE anyway).

  5. Ok, I’m back from dinner. From what I’m seeing, what was going on a few hours ago is basically unchanged: UKIP is taking the Tory seats and Labour the LibDem ones. Obviously an over-simplification since you’ve got some councils where Labour is getting seats from the Tories and some where UKIP is giving both a good shakeup, but still a passable approximation for what we’re seeing.

    The LibDems are holding onto about 2/3 of their seats ATM…but if you exclude Eastleigh (where they held on almost without change) they’re losing about half of their seats, as before. Not a good night for them. Not a good one for the Tories, either, from multiple angles.

    UKIP is having a particularly good night…the 80-odd seats they were expected to get overall have been exceeded. I cannot help but wonder if some commentators underestimated their performance because they wanted them to do badly, or if it was in hope of there being a story (“Everyone did as expected” is a dull headline compared to “UKIP Takes Gains, Labour Falls Short”).

  6. Good early morning everyone. Half Term here nearly.
    Reports are that Labour would be 18 seats short of OM in the Commons if results were replicated.

    Not good- for anyone.

  7. @CL45

    Good for UKIP!

    The General Election will not be contested through the prism of the European elections and will be on a much higher turnout. Also in the GE campaign UKIP will have to elaborate on their very right wing economic and social policies, which will not sit well with traditional Labour voters.

    And there’s still London to come. Croydon and Hammersmith and Fulham could turn Red, and I believe Labour has already taken Merton.

  8. Tories lose Hammersmith and Fulham to Labour.

  9. Lab take Hammersmith and Fulham taking 11 seats off the Tories.

  10. Hammersmith and Fulham has turned red accoring to BBC Lab taking 11 seats from the Cons

    very surprising

  11. Hammersmith and Fulham matters as it’s a mixed Tory/Labour area – probably more Tory overall than it used to be with the gentrification of parts of Hammersmith.

    I haven’t seen the results broken down but it appears this was straight Tory-Labour switching.

  12. Have there been many large demographic changes the past few years in H&F?

  13. The % of seats lost and gained has not changed for a few hours, so i think i will make a prediction

    Cons lose 19% of seats so from 1574 to 1274 300 losses

    Lab up 17% in seats so from 1778 to 2080 about 300 gains

    LD down 41 % so from 720 to 420 300 losses

    UKIP about 300 gains from almost nothing

    Thwe last 2 parties seats are taken from Libdem voice and are for 2010 there must be small changes from then

    Would someone check my figures they are from

    http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/england-council-election-results

    http://w ww.libdemvoice.org/local-elections-2014-your-quickandeasy-guide-to-the-lib-dem-numbers-that-matter-39564.html

  14. The % of seats lost and gained has not changed for a few hours, so i think i will make a prediction

    Cons lose 19% of seats so from 1574 to 1274 300 losses

    Lab up 17% in seats so from 1778 to 2080 about 300 gains

    LD down 41 % so from 720 to 420 300 losses

    UKIP about 300 gains from almost nothing

    Thwe last 2 parties seats are taken from LD site and are for 2010 there must be small changes from then. but that is my prediction

    I have a longer version of tihs post in moderation, probably used a trigger word

  15. @RAF & ED

    As far as I know, no major shifts in demographics, beyond the norm in London (Slightly less white, a bit less Christian, increasing spread in country of birth). Based on the data available from the council website, I’d claim the two striking points are i) virtually no UKIP presence and ii) A fairly large drop in Lib Dem votes. Given that there were actually a fairly large number of marginal wards in 2010, this was enough to swing it.

  16. @Floating Voter

    I think there are too many sorts of contest going on to make predictions based on the early figures. London is not Southern England is not the UK.

  17. @Origimbo

    You are right of course and the Lab increase looks too high, i think the Con and LD could be correct, maybe UKip much higher taking seats off Lab in England outside London

  18. Anybody know where I can find a breakdown of which party lost to who? In a macro was.

    The emerging narrative is that these results are a disaster for Labour, with UKIP gaining equally from Lab and Con but the macro result doesn’t seem to give that picture.

  19. Macro was = macro way.

  20. @tingedfringe:
    I don’t know of a good overall listing, but as a council finishes reporting, BBC does have a passable list.

    With that said, from what I’ve seen, you have the following broad trends:
    -In Essex and the South, you have seats swinging from the Tories to UKIP;
    -In London, seats are generally going Tory to Labour;
    -In the North, the tendency is to go UKIP to Labour;
    -And everywhere but Eastleigh, you’ve got LibDem to everyone else, though often enough that tends to skew towards Labour.

    In terms of votes, the story is a bit more complex, but the short version is that /everyone/ is bleeding votes to UKIP…Labour just happens to be making it up with gains at the LibDems’ expense.

  21. Gray,

    Thanks. Perhaps I should just ignore the narratives and wait a few days for the analysis. TTFN I guess.

  22. From the BBC this morning

    Con down 95 seats

    Lab up 83 seats

    LD down 81 seats

    UKIP up 86 seats

    with most of the London council still to report and also a lot of the norrthern English councils. The London ones will probably be good for Lab, the northern English councils not so good

  23. Yes, in many ways this is a repeat of 2012 with added UKIP.

  24. Another general point to be made is that in a lot of areas, not all of the parties are competitive. I know that sounds obvious, but it is behind a lot of the odd patterns. In the North, I think you have a lot of Tories bolting to UKIP as a protest…but they’re also bolting because the Tories just aren’t viable in places like Sunderland or Rotherham. In other places, you might only have a Tory candidate and a UKIP candidate…and it is quite believable that some working class voters might opt to mark UKIP over Tory. I suspect this is the case in parts of the South.

    The bleed from the LibDems is quite spectacular. Outside of a few places they seem to have gotten a bit lucky in terms of their performance (such as Eastleigh), they’re losing about half of their seats. Even with Eastleigh in mind, the loss is about 40%, and their vote share drop is similar per an earlier BBC report. However, the LibDem bleed is largely splitting between UKIP (for their “protest vote” supporters) and Labour (for their left-wing supporters).

    The end result is that in a lot of seats, UKIP is picking up from whomever is in control, regardless of party. In terms of votes, the move seems to be pretty massive…and FPTP is only doing so much to hold UKIP back at the moment. The main thing holding them back is the fact that a lot of councils are up by thirds…though this might also be helping them by creating a “by-election effect” in areas, letting people toss a protest vote UKIP’s way without it actually affecting who controls the council.

    One other point: It does seem that UKIP is not doing well in London, but is doing well almost everywhere else. Looking at seat wins in the general vicinity of London so far (per the BBC’s results), I see them picking up one in Broxbourne from the Tories, five in Harlow (3 Labour, 2 Tory), and then a bunch out in Essex (Thurrock, Basildon, Castle Point, Southend, and Rochford). Go up north or out in the far reaches of the London commuter network and UKIP is doing well. London is just sui generis at this point, and I’m not entirely sure why.

  25. IMO, the narrative about UKIP doing especially well, even at the expense of Labour, is a misinterpretation of the results; the main winner will be Lab, both in the locals and the Euros.

    The remaining results in London and the big Northern English metropolitan areas (Greater Manchester, Merseyside and S/W Yorkshire) that have not declared are likely to be good for Labour (rather than UKIP), with the LDs suffering badly. UKIP have done well in Rotherham, but I suspect this was due to specific local factors. The South Essex councils have all declared, and there are only a few councils yet to declare (Great Yarmouth may be one) where UKIP are particularly likely to further significant gains.

    It is NC’s “political” head (not EM’s) that is likely to be for the chop within the next 12 months. I still feel that EM is an electoral liability and will cost Lab an OM in 2015, but Lab are still on course to be the largest party then and will be able to run a minority administration with the tacit support of the Nats and the few remaining LDs.

  26. @daodao:
    How much room is there for Labour to add seats in those northern metropolitan councils?

  27. miliband is a serious liability, but will probably squeeze into number 10.

  28. If we’re crystal ball gazing, it wouldn’t take that much political calamity for all three major westminster parties to go into May 2015 with a new leader:

    Miliband is pushed in a month or two as Labour “only” gain 200 councillors and polls continue to slide Conservative. The change brings a minor upturn in Labour’s fortunes, which is hailed as the reason Scotland votes no to independence by less than 0.5%. After that result right wing Tories carry out a night of the long knives to replace Cameron with Johnson, after a convenient by-election. With a increasingly disjointed relationship, the Lib Dems decide that Clegg is too toxic to a deal with either side and replace him with an Alexander-Cable double act, in the manner of Steel and Owen. Nigel Farage is suddenly the steady hand of British politics.

  29. The two councils LDs hold in London:

    Sutton looks like it is staying LD and 4 seats to go LDs have made two gains.

    Kingston they are talking about LDs losing it but seems very close- the predictions were for Labour to win 3 seats in Norbiton (possibly their only hope) and it has gone to a recount with one vote between 3rd and 4th place. Predictions were made during the counting but no-one saying if this means Lab have two for sure or not.

    Overall seems to be very mixed everywhere at the moment and might be a while before the dust settles and we can work out which parties can be happy (obvious UKIP have done well).

  30. Partly expected but there will be some disappointed faces at NI this morning when those heartland results are digested.

  31. No doubt today we will hear the main stream parties saying they will ‘learn lessons’.

    Didn’t they say that last time….and the time before that…..

  32. Lab gaining seats all over, very solid. UKIP doing well against Con.

    The Euros might be very close! If Lab beat UKIP it will have been a very good night for them.

    Atrocious night for both government parties.

  33. pressman

    It appears that your rags only have any influence in Essex.

  34. Grant Shapps saying ” … there will be no pact per se” pretty much leaves the door open to Con/Ukip negotiation.

  35. @NickP

    Yes Lab seem to be doing OK, when you look at the BBC score card up 101 seats at the moment, but looking at the newspaper coverage, you would think something terrible has happened/

    It is like there are reporting a different election

    Very strange

  36. If we are genuinely entering a period of 4 Party Politics with the Third and Fourth Parties picking up over a Third of votes between them this has significant implications for the levels if support required to win the General Election under a First Past the Post System.

    The Point at which we now enter into the potential for a Labour Majority Government would now be at the ridiculously low level of 32% of the Vote cast or less than a Quarter of the possible electorate.

    There is little point in the Established Parties trying to Out Kip UKIP as at the moment all we know about UKIP is that they don’t like foreigners much and don’t want to be in the EU.

    UKIP have been successful on the basis of not having a policy agenda other than this.

    Before the General Election they need to have a set of policies.

    They don’t have to be coherent just populist the issue then would be whether such a set of policies would be more appealing to Tory or Labour Supporters.

  37. Looking at the results so far. Lab may have just topped the vote in the Euros. The only caveat is if the turnout is very disproportionate to the locals

  38. At 2am the story was UKIP winning seats and preventing Labour from winning seats. Labour seems to be picking up the morning drive time with council gains in Hammersmith, Croydon and possibly Redbridge. By this evening I expect we’ll be back to UKIP winning seats in the rest of England.

  39. @Floating Voter
    “Hammersmith and Fulham has turned red………
    very surprising”

    Speak for yourself. I had a few bob riding on that result.

  40. @Floating Voter:
    Labour got into an expectations disaster. All the talk of them picking up 500 seats really set them up to fail, since the Rallings/Thrasher model really didn’t account for the not-Tory vote going UKIP. A side-effect of this was UKIP simply getting stuffed in at 80 seats…simply because they had to give them /something/. It isn’t even entirely their fault…but you’re never going to hear a leader turn to a prediction like that and say “No way we’ll do that well”, now, are you?

    @Billy Bob:
    I think he’s leaving the door open because you might get some material cooperation in seats. There’s nothing to stop a couple of local CAs from informally agreeing to channel volunteers into different seats (i.e. the Tory associations agree to ignore a Labour-held seat that UKIP is gunning for while UKIP tacitly ignores a Tory-held seat nearby, with volunteers being quietly steered by their respective parties). The national parties would probably be powerless to stop it from happening (and might even want to quietly encourage a few deals like that to limit the damage without a formal deal).

    On the other hand, I suspect the Tories are more or less keeping in mind the lessons of 1906, where the Liberals did a no-compete arrangement with Labour, which netted the latter a bunch of seats. Twenty years later, the Liberals were turning into a footnote (they had their last non-crisis government role right before WWI; their next would be in 2010) while Labour had already served a brief term in government and was locked in place as the Official Opposition.

  41. Hammersmith and Fulham is a very significant result and disappointing for the CONs. I guess LAB must have run a good campaign. It makes me slightly worried for here in Barnet where the CONs have implemented a similarly radical programme of outsourcing and council tax cuts. However, H&F may have always demographically favoured LAB with 2006 and 2010 being aberrations as the London electorate punished New Labour particularly hard. Barnet has never had a Labour majority and I don’t expect that to change.

    I wish the BBC et al. wouldn’t get as excited as they are yet… just 1/3 in including huge swathes of the old industrial North and Essex where UKIP could expect to have come second. They are also using the misleading figure of % of vote won in wards where they stood (i.e. not where they were so weak they didn’t bother).

    Tory/UKIP pact is a complete no-go in my opinion. Most UKIP-pers don’t want to vote Tory and many Tories, myself included, certainly don’t want to vote UKIP.

  42. Labour is doing poorly if measured against the measure of being on course for a secure OM at the next GE.

    IMO this was never realistic and fails to take account of how bad 2010 was.

    Measured against a more sensible goal of 35% (obv more would be great) in the GE, gaining seats from both Tories and LDs and making it mathematically impossible for the LD/Tory Coalition to continue they are doing OK.

    Such a result leading to a minority Lab Gov’t possibly with and differently led LD providing C&S would be success for me.

    Even forcing an unstable con minority Government would be a decent recovery from 2010 for Labour,

  43. I worked in the Hammersmith & Fulham elections & am not at all surprised by Labour’s victory. I didn’t want to curse the party by openly predicting a Labour win though. Off to the Hounslow count this morning.

  44. Looking at the 2010 results, Barnet should be a safe CON hold. You’d expect CON to lose up to 6 to Labour, but pick up at least a couple of LD seats in return, assuming it behaved like Hammersmith.

  45. Good morning, all

    I’ve been catching up with the thread since 6 a.m., in between breakfast and getting the wife off to work, so she can pay for the summer holidays……….

    Any figures on turnout %s? I see that Croydon was due to declare at 2 a.m. on the englishvotes site, but that that now has been put back to 9 a.m. Are we a long way behind on declarations, and, if so, what might this mean for the rest of the day? Any idea as to when we’ll have the final picture? Perhaps Lewisham will be 2 a.m. tomorrow after all!

    Contributors overnight seem to be suggesting that this was a better night for Labour than many were expecting. The problem is that we are in unknown territory, where comparisons with previous ‘one year to go’ locals are made more difficult because of the Euros and UKIP.

    Personally I think that Labour will hold its collective nerve and Milliband will lead them into the GE. The big unknown is the economy and what will happen if the ‘improvement’ does seep down into real people’s pockets, and the Tories can convince enough people that Labour cannot be trusted with ‘an improving picture’. Certainly Miliiband has not ‘enthused the country’.

    Bad night for the LDs, many say, but they appear to be holding up in their strongholds, which is a good sign for them – but that is relative, of course.

    DC must hope for economic improvement and must find a way of avoiding an interest rate rise. He remains under threat from George and Boris.

    UKIP must now try to put together some coherent policies at a local government level. Protest is all very well, but there has to be an alternative proposal.
    On the other hand, it may well be that UKIP did better in the Euros than they did in the locals, and that might well cause a wobble, especially amongst the Labour leadership.

    Overall, so far, I’d say that no-one has ‘won’ and that not even the LDs have endured total destruction. The situation so far, therefore, is that the GE remains an unknown. I cannot see Labour gaining an OM, but neither can I see UKIP winning more than the occasional seat – if any at all.

    As for the suggestion made earlier that Labour might have a minority administration ‘with the tacit support of the Nationalists’, that all depends on how Labour behaves between now and then. Any hint of ‘voting UKIP to keep SNP out’ (even though it seems unlikely) and Labour can say farewell to any support at all from that quarter. And Labour will have to come up with a much better Devolution package in order to entice the SNP into some sort of informal partnership.

    Conclusion?
    We’re all staring into thick fog.

  46. The “Labour disaster” narrative seems Odd. And to be entirely honest, it seems to be coming from the Conservatives who want to deflect the media away from how awful their night was. Labour have already gained the 100+ councillors they said they would, with less than half of council votes returned. If you focus very tightly on certain councils, you can frame it as “Labour slipping back”, but to say such is true nationally in an election where Labour are making gains seems absurd.

    This seems to be a doubling down on the “But ED MILIBAND!” being the Conservative Campaign keynote. I don’t see how this wins a general election for the conservatives next year, it seems to have picked up entirely the wrong lesson from 2010 thinking that it was solely caused by Gordon Brown’s personal unpopularity.

    I somewhat wonder if after the may elections in 2015, certain parts of the press will run the headline “Ed Miliband’s disastrous loss of the election leads to Labour Government”.

  47. From the evidence at the Locals it would appear that UKIP are more likely to Gain vote share in those areas where the Tories are Strongest and while picking up vote share in Labour Northern Strongholds leaving Labour as still Comfortably the largest Party there.

    The Key area in 2015 now looks like it will be London with 9 million inhabitants and 73 MP’s.

    Here Labour are doing well and UKIP isn’t.

    Labour could return to office on the basis of it’s London vote.

    Which is a bit ironic considering the Media insist on Lumping London in with the Tory South East

  48. John B – cant find anything to disagree with not that i was looking to,

    In particular your is totally right in all 3 parts,

    ”Personally I think that Labour will hold its collective nerve and Milliband will lead them into the GE. The big unknown is the economy and what will happen if the ‘improvement’ does seep down into real people’s pockets, and the Tories can convince enough people that Labour cannot be trusted with ‘an improving picture’. Certainly Miliiband has not ‘enthused the country”

    In fact every party will go in the GE with their current leader and that has been the case for at least a year imo – any change would have had to be in 2013.

  49. Farage “UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house”

    Quick someone call out the RSPCA.

  50. @Gray

    Informal deals? I’d go more with a probalility that it might be “behind the scenes”. There could be the odd exposé (The Independent perhaps) about a secret pact, but otherwise it will be below the radar.

    Farage can use the excuse that his current (Tory) backers have pulled the plug, and use his powers to stand down a number of candidates… but the reverse-takeover strategy will continue apace.

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