Local Results Thread

Polls are closed, counting in about half the councils is tonight, the other half tomorrow morning (the Press Association have a nifty list of when they expect particular councils to announce results here). Feel free to stick around and discuss results as they come in here.

In the meantime, tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%.


448 Responses to “Local Results Thread”

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  1. 11% others? Presumably this is Green/SNP inflation for the Euros? Rubbish for all main sides though.

  2. Well, “others” does tend to get inflated at times like this. Also remember: The Greens have been getting a polling boost out of the Euros from what we can tell.

  3. Yes, we need to wait a week or so for the local election and EP election noise to die away.

    In the Belgian papers, there is a discussion about the exit poll results in NL being published. As most EU states’ elections are on Sunday, it is thought such polls could influence other countries’ behaviour. So what say I, if so.

  4. Lewisham to declare 2 a.m. Saturday? Are we sure that’s right?

  5. @Anthony Wells – Re the title of this post, I very much hope you’ll have posted something else before the Euro results are announced on Sunday night! Hopefully this will just be the Local results thread.

  6. I did this poll and it was a discipline to choose my likely 2015 GE party rather than who I was voting for today.

    Weirdly distracting having an actual vote to interrupt your hmm who will I vote for next year thought process.

  7. @Howard

    I posted this on the previous thread at 12.35 p.m.

    “I always find it surprising in the US that results in eastern and mid-western states are announced before Hawaii and Alaska are half way through – or have even got going. If I remember rightly there is one town in Maine where voters turn up at midnight, vote and then are the first to declare, usually by 1 a.m.”

    It all depends on whether you are going to be influenced by what others do. But it could also be the case that, given the already declared results, it’s just not worth bothering. And that wouldn’t be good for democracy.

  8. Mr N

    Surely 9%.

    Polls have been suggesting SNP vote for the Euros not very much different from other elections, so a boost for Greens in E&W?

  9. IPSOS EXIT POLL NETHERLANDS
    D66 (ALDE) 15.6 (+4.3) 4 seats (+1)
    CDA (EPP) 15.2 (-4.9) 4 (-1)
    VVD (ALDE) 12.3 (+0.9) 3 (nc)
    PVV (far right) 12.2 (-4.8) 3 (-2)
    SP (EUL/NGL) 10 (+2.9) 3 (+1)
    PVDA (SD) 9.3 (-2.7) 3 (nc)
    CU/SGP (ECR+ELD) 7.8 (+1) 2 (nc)
    PVDD (Animal rights) 4.2 (+0.7) 1 (+1)
    50+ (Pensioners, new party) 4.2, 1 seat (+1)
    Bright result for D66 and the Liberal family, nightmare for europhobic xenophobic far right.

  10. @John B – It has often been suggested that the West Coast results in the very close 1960 election between Kennedy and Nixon were directly affected by the early returns from Connecticut.

  11. OldNat, that would be the Greens in England; their poll rankings are rick bottom in Wales and indeed a number of Green party branches have openly declared for PC in this election (they even had formal pacts back in the 90s)

  12. Oldnat,

    Correct, I can’t count. Lots of students voting Greens where they would have voted Labour or Lib Dem previously. Often little justification beyond “Dunno, they seem nice”.

    Actually very frustrating when I was canvassing around the student village this evening.

  13. QT kicking off giving UKIP a bit of a kicking!

  14. Chris – haha. Thread title changed :)

  15. @Chris Green:
    I can believe that, and I’m reminded of Florida in 2000 as well. With that said, when there’s a huge amount of polling being done (as is the case here) and/or when most of the factors in the election are local by comparison (the European “parties” are loose coalitions at best), sitting on results is not terribly purposeful IMHO.

  16. ADDENDUM
    I omitted GROENLINKS (Green/EFA) 7.3 (-1.6) 2 seats (-1)

  17. Greens are as far as I am concerned at an earlier cycle than UKIP. I.e. Once and if they got a bigger vote count, they would get more scrutiny on their policies. Some of which are economically naive to put it mildly…

  18. I’ve put together a few spreadsheets which might be useful, focusing on popular votes rather than seats:

    Summary / running totals page:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0

    Greater London councils:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

    I’ll post the others later.

  19. @Chris In Cardiff – The Greens and Plaid Cymru (and the SNP) are all in the same European Parliament group, Greens/European Free Alliance, so it makes sense for them not to compete in European elections.

  20. @Anthony Wells – WHEW!

  21. Just looking at the latest YouGov polls I have the feeling that it will take something very bad happening to stop the Conservatives from winning a majority at the next general election. Looking at the YouGov charts with a technical analysis point of view there is very strong resistance at the 34-35 point mark for the tories. If this can be broken I would expect to see a sharp move up to 40 and the previous highs of 2010 to be tested.

  22. Chris in Cardiff

    Thanks. I’m never wholly sure just how “devolved”/”separate”/”independent” the Green Party in Wales is from its English counterpart, as compared to the Scottish Green Party which is a distinct party in alliance with Greens in other countries.

  23. “In the meantime, tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%”
    _____

    I think the Lib/dem VI looks too high and they could have possibly peaked too early before 2015.

  24. “Pallion (Sunderland) Result: LAB – 47.8% UKIP – 30.1% CON – 14.3% GRN – 4.8% LDEM – 3.1%”

    No idea as to the implications of that!

  25. @Couper (FPT)

    “Well Labour voters in Scotland are apparently voting UKIP to stop the SNP getting the 6th seat”

    First I’ve heard of such things. It would be ironic if we ended up with SNP 3, UKIP 1 as a result, with Labour losing a seat. It sounds like one of those election day myths, imho.

    34% each at Westminster? Getting interesting. I wondered how low the Con / Lab percentages have to go before UKIP get a seat there (Electoral calculus), but even with 31% / 31% and UKIP at 19%, they get no seats. I have a feeling the calculator isn’t programmed for such things.

  26. @Oldnat

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunderland_Council_election,_2012#Pallion_ward

    Looks a lot like UKIP are making their mark. Lab are down almost 20%, Con down 1%, Green down 8%, Lib down 1%…UKIP at 30% from no show previously.

  27. This general election is looking very interesting indeed, particularly if the economy continues to improve. A working majority for Labour is looking rather unlikely now. Cameron has somehow got himself in to a position of strength both externally and within his own party.

  28. ANDY JS

    Very interesting link to your spread sheet.

    In terms of votes (2010) Ukip came in 6th in Greater London with just over 40,000 votes. Do you think they will do better tonight?

  29. Yep, Lab down 20% in Sunderland. wow!

  30. OLDNAT

    “Pallion (Sunderland) Result: LAB – 47.8% UKIP – 30.1% CON – 14.3% GRN – 4.8% LDEM – 3.1%”

    No idea as to the implications of that
    ___________

    The implications look grim for the Libs. 3.1%??

  31. Has this Sunderland result already dispelled the myth that UKIP are not taking (ex) Labour voters????

  32. The Labour candidate is Cecilia Gofton, better known as the mother of Lauren Laverne.

  33. Sunderland again (did they have few votes to count?

    St Anne’s (Sunderland) Result: LAB – 48.3% UKIP – 33.2% CON – 14.1% GRN – 4.35

  34. Ed M: is his job safe?
    ALLAN CHRISTIE:
    You took my line, Sir, about the LD’s.

  35. This Sunderland result raises an issue about the recent shift of Labour VI to UKIP – where is it happening? If it is concentrated in Labour heartlands, the significance for the GE will be minimal.

  36. @Couper / Statgeek

    It would also be a downright stupid thing to do. The EP sits in voting Socialists. While Lab is part of the Party of European Socialists and the SNP the European Free Alliance/Green coalition, they are both essentially left of centre and vote in similar ways.

    UKIP is part of a very different block.

  37. Sandhill (Sunderland) Result: LAB – 65.6% CON – 24.2% LDEM – 10.2%

    Usual problem with local election results. Not all significant parties put up candidates in every seat.

  38. JOHN CURTICE has different figures for Sunderland.

  39. @Robin

    It depends on the size of the UKIP vote. Those Sunderland shares are pretty high. But yes, that is the reason UKIP is more dancing to the Tories.

  40. Ehem damaging.

  41. First Labour gain of the evening – Lab Gain St. Chads (Sunderland) from Cons. No figures yet.

  42. chrislane1945

    ALLAN CHRISTIE:
    You took my line, Sir, about the LD’s
    ________

    Sorry about that….Great minds…

  43. @CL45

    I don’t think Joker Curtice plays with the same deck as other psephologists.

  44. First results showed up on the BBC. 6 for Labour, 0 others (net loss of 1 for the Tories), not sure where from.

  45. [email protected] / Statgeek

    While not discounting the right and ability of voters to be “downright stupid”, any idea that more than the odd extreme partisan would behave in such a way seems extremely unlikely.

  46. According to Electoral Calculus, the above GE figures give a minority Labour government with 323 seats and LD’s down to 16 seats (ouch – badly squeezed).

    31/31/19/9 gives Labour a slightly worse minority government with 318 seats and LD’s less squeezed with 24 seats.

    Would the LD squeeze be even worse if/when UKIP start gaining seats? It’s difficult to be on 9% when there’s 3 parties 2-3 times more popular than that.

  47. My phone has been in poor form lately. Sorry for all the typos.

  48. Interesting claim from Martin Powell, member of Southport Lib Dems. Although the party is registered to use a number of descriptions on ballots (such as everyone’s favourite crime fighters, the Lib Dem Focus Team), they’ve not found a single candidate standing under “Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats”.

  49. I’m just quoting the tweets from “Britain Elects 2014”.

    Mind you, since they described the SNP, PC, Scottish Greens and the NI parties as “devolved” parties, I guarantee nothing about their ability to be accurate on anything!

  50. Gosh there is an awful lot of pointless conjecture.

    Will EM be safe??

    Yes, he will. [Unless one of the Eagle twins fancies the job of course.]

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