Local Results Thread

Polls are closed, counting in about half the councils is tonight, the other half tomorrow morning (the Press Association have a nifty list of when they expect particular councils to announce results here). Feel free to stick around and discuss results as they come in here.

In the meantime, tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%.


448 Responses to “Local Results Thread”

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  1. The hated extrapolation:

    Lab 308
    Con 272
    Lib 40

    Not bad for Libs better than I would have expected.
    (from Twitter source: UK Political News)

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  2. Like I said earlier – we’re looking into dense fog, so stop pretending that all is wonderful on your particular part of the political spectrum
    ———–
    Who has been pretending that all is wonderful on their particular part of the political spectrum? Go on, name names.

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  3. I have wondered what the voting attitude would be in London to UKIP, of those such as the 600,000 French residents, (one of ‘France’s biggest cities’), let alone to Nigel Farage himself, the francophile emigré? The German residents’ view would also be interesting, thinking of his marriage. I wonder if pollsters have considered polling EU migrants – there are enough of them here apparently!

    They can of course vote in both local and EU elections.

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  4. Ozwald
    I agree, but would think that short-term rather than long-term. Seeing Conservatives lose by any means necessary is fun and healthy, but if it came at the expense of elevating UKIP to a permanent foothold and giving their ideas greater currency, it would be like the pleasure gained from scratching a scab, which feels good at the time but ultimately makes the problem worse.

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  5. CB11
    As so often your Redditch remark is prescient although not so intended I suspect! I too will be on tenterhooks until we find out about Redditch.

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  6. Shevvi – there has been some work done and from memory –

    In 1997 the net swing for Lab was a little lower I think 1% where the candidate was BAME.

    Interestingly in the few seats with overwhelmingly white electorates but a BAME candidate the difference was similar (eg Lanbaurgh).

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  7. Labour are not performing well, but the tories do not look like they will get re-elected to government. losing control of councils, like hammersmith & fulham, croydon, castle point in the year before an election, when you don’t have a majority doesn’t indicate a stunning re-election in 2015.

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  8. I don’t think that the locals tell us much about how Labour will fair in the next GE. Labour put minimal effort into their campaign and have got minimal results out of it; unsurprising and fully expected given how lacklustre their campaign has been. They won’t be so mediocre in 2015, I think.

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  9. john b

    “Labour has failed to show itself capable of winning outright, It ought to be a long way ahead of where it is if it to form a government with any credibilty”

    Regardless of what you think “ought” to happen, Labour don’t need to be anywhere but where they are now, and they don’t need any bigger share of the vote to comfortably form a government.

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  10. Weird situation in Kingston- one final ward to recount with one vote separating Lab and LD (seems like Lab have won 2 seats) and they’ve now given up until Sunday.

    Poor dears- they must be tired having been up for 28 hours- no stamina!

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  11. Eddie – am with you on this.

    My Schadenfraude at LD decline is not stronger than my distaste for the UKIP.

    Also – would mean Tory moving centre to take the LD ground, squeezing the terrain for Labour.

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  12. Eddie,

    From a Labour POV, I think that that’s true. Labour have gradually come to find the SNP a seemingly insurmountable problem in Scotland, because it doesn’t matter how unpopular the Tory party is doing nationally- at the lower levels, Muggin’s turn doesn’t apply anymore in Scotland and so bad news for the Tories or even Lib Dems does not equal good news for Labour.

    I don’t think that UKIP present as dramatic a challenge to Labour in England as the SNP do in Scotland, but they (alongside the Greens) already seem to have meant that the windfall boost Labour obtained from the collapse of the LDs as a centre-left protest party has been largely squandered. Two steps forward, one step back seems to be how the last four years have gone for Labour.

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  13. amber

    Half the posts between 9.30 and 10.15 read as though they were from paid hacks.

    Sorry – that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but let’s not pretend that Labour have come out of this well – unless being the last man standing in a fight to the death is ‘doing well’.

    I’ve just heard Milliband on the Beeb. Soundbites and platitudes.. He still doesn’t get it. He’s got to stop being terrified of making himself look like a real human being.

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  14. @Bill Patrick

    Do you think so? I am worried that this is as good as Labour gets. The Lab guy on TV yesterday was complaining about ‘the people round EM’ and referred to Douglas Alexander. I think DA is very ‘New Labour’ and IMO Lab need to be pushing a more populist left wing agends to get folk motivated but I doubt DA would buy into that.

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  15. John B,

    I agree with your last sentence and think there ought to be a more exciting, positive reason to vote for the different parties. But on the other hand, being the last man standing in a fight to the death does mean you win.

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  16. NickP,

    I think that overlooks (a) the possibility of the Labour vote shrinking yet further as we move through the next 12 months and (b) that Labour winning with as little as a third of the vote, while quite probable, would not produce either a large majority or a general sense of a popular mandate. We’ve not seen Labour in power, in Westminster, with a small majority for nearly 40 years, and we know that the backbenchers made life tough for Blair and Brown even with the kind of majority they had in 2005-2010.

    HOWEVER, I think that Labour’s VI is a bit low right now and has been depressed by people being reminded that the Green party exists, and that Labour will gain some ground when people forget about the Greens again. Thus, while I think Labour may lose some ground to the Coalition and UKIP between now and 2015, I expect them to be in the 32-35% range and for the Tories to lose further votes to UKIP. Despite the dramatic events of the last few months, my prediction remains what it’s been for a long time: that the winners of 2010 will be the losers of 2015 (something I’ve said since 2009) and that Labour will win a 15-30 seat majority.

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  17. NickP

    Labour cannot ‘comfortably form a government’ on this performance. They can get a majority in the HoC, but unless there is a big improvement there will be no authority to use it – and I mean that both in the sense of having a reasonable support from the public and the sense that those who would be in government are credible.

    BP 10.50

    Aye, you’re right — except that its three steps forward and two back.

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  18. @Eddie
    I agree but UKIP seem to be picking up votes from people who simply want “something new and untarnished” without caring much about what they really stand for. Kippers are selling the wrapper but few have any idea what is in the box. When we learn more about their policies I expect UKIP to lose support. But I still expect them to replace LD as the third party.

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  19. @JohnB

    You spoil the rather good point you’re making by committing the same sin yourself! It’s far too early to write the story of these local council and European elections and what you’re seeing is the usual suspects airing their pet agendas, bending the results that are in so far to suit the narrative they’d written before anyone had cast a vote. The last time I’d looked, there were over 100 councils yet to declare and counting won’t start in the European elections until Sunday.

    Much water yet to flow under the bridge, although the increasingly ludicrous Nick Robinson had given his final verdict after the Sunderland results had come in at 11.45pm last night!

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  20. I wonder if the UKIP surge is being oversold given the comparatively small number of councils they seem to be doing well in. About 40% of their gains seem to be in Essex for example and local factors (as in Rotherham) are responsible for most of the rest.

    They certainly failed to capitalise on their potential in London. I’ve pointed in the past to Bexley as somewhere where they might do well, but they failed to put up sufficient candidates. They only had a full slate in one ward (which they didn’t quite win), but picked up three single seats elsewhere:

    http://democracy.bexley.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=6&V=1&RPID=8097194

    If they had had three candidate instead of one in those wards they would have had nine elected. In nearly every other ward where they put up a solitary candidate they came a good fourth behind the three winners and might well have won three seats there as well.

    Of course UKIP’s patchy performance may be good if they are looking to gain seats at Westminster and Farage is clearly aiming for that, though I suspect the results will only tell them what they know anyway. Whether that will be enough to win the constituency will be another matter. There may be a strong ABU factor (as someone suggested might already have taken place in Eastleigh). There is also the fact that everything was in UKIP’s favour this time because of the EU factor in a low turnout election – their voters were far better motivated than other Parties’. That won’t be as true next year

    But the Bexley results also show the danger of UKIP to Labour. It is the sort of council they win in a very good year (they held it 2002-06). Here they only made modest gains (+4) and the Conservatives stayed in control. This has always been the way that UKIP could damage Labour – not directly by taking many votes, but by ‘intercepting’ floating voters who might otherwise have moved to Labour.

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  21. Big questions for Ed Miliband this morning. That’s what the news says, and who am I to question our news channels!

    Could UKIP gain a council anywhere??

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  22. Couper2802,

    It’s less a policy issue and more Labour just not campaigning hard. That’s my general sense from (a) living in a Labour-LD contested area where Labour have been practically nonexistent in the campaign and have just expected (rightly) the LD vote to melt away to them and (b) anecdotes from people across England and Scotland who haven’t seen Labour on the ground at all this campaign. For a party that has tried “studied invisibility” as their campaigning strategy, Labour are not doing badly at all. In the GE, I’m sure the Labour ground-game will come into play and they’ll do a lot better.

    As far as policy goes, there is a tradeoff between winning the Red Dems (who have nowhere else to go, at least insofar as they forget about the Greens) and competing for marginal voters with the Tories. Labour have made very little progress in the latter department and presumably done even worse had they moved further to the left. So I can understand Labour taking left-wing voters largely for granted, giving them just enough in the way of red meat to keep them happy, and otherwise staying close to a NuLab approach.

    Even with the Green Dems, Labour have a very simple and effective line they can trot out in 2015: “Grow up and vote Labour, because only we can beat the Tories”.

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  23. @Alan,

    Was I spinning? Which party do you think I was spinning for and/or against?

    @Spearmint,

    400+ does seem high (ie a good result for Labour) but I was merely extrapolating from the proportion of gains to seats contested so far. Of course there can be all sorts of reasons why the gain rate might accelerate or decelerate with more declarations, but I am not psephologist enough to understand them. I am not aware of any particular reason to believe that Labour would be disproportionately successful in the early returns and begin to fade in the later ones.

    Overall, I don’t think there is really anything too unexpected in the results. I think anyone trying to use them as tealeaves for what “will”, “won’t”, “can” and “can’t” happen in 2015 is probably kidding themself.

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  24. If UKIP are only on an average of 25% in the seats they are standing: they are not going to top the Euro poll. I said in the early hours I thought Labour will top that poll and this morning it looks just as likely.

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  25. I’m going to recycle the old George Bush Joke. If Ed Miliband walked on water, the headlines would be “Ed Miliband Can’t Swim”.

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  26. Sorry – that’s a bit of an exaggeration,
    It certainly is.
    but let’s not pretend that Labour have come out of this well And let’s not pretend that you’d be willing to acknowledge that Labour are coping with ‘the fog’ better than they’ve ever done in the past when faced with challenging circumstances.
    – unless being the last man standing in a fight to the death is ‘doing well’.
    As Mr Nameless said, it’s better to be the last man standing in a fight to death than being any of the others!

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  27. Now that Glenda Jacksons Son is an auto mod name, are there any other names that posters to UKPR should avoid ?

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  28. @Howard – “(one of ‘France’s biggest cities’)”

    Fwiw More or Less looked at the 6th largest French city claim… French city stats are very tightly drawn, not including suburbs for instance. The conclusion was that London ranked somewhere around 60th.

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  29. @JOHN B: “Labour cannot ‘comfortably form a government’ on this performance. They can get a majority in the HoC…”

    If they have a majority they can comfortably form a government. Share of the vote is irrelevant. Not that these locals can tell us anything about the GE result anyway (although having a lot of councillors won’t necessarily work to UKIP’s favour).

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  30. People seem to be forgetting that in a 3 party election Labour got a comfortable majority on 35% of the vote in 2005. In 2015 it could well be a landslide with 4 parties.

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  31. UKIP haven’t done particularly well in the West Country (so far). Fifth place (behind the Greens) in a ward by-election in Bath and just the one gain in Bristol compared to four for Labour, two for the Greens and one for the Conservatives.

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  32. john b

    Will you lot stop trying to spin these results! The facts are…….
    _______

    The fact are we have just had an election and it wouldn’t be an election without spin.

    Now stop trying to take the spin out of other peoples spin and start spinning some facts. ;-)

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  33. Did I hear somewhere that actually the UKIP result is merely a repeat of the percentage they got last time – the big increase in seats which makes the noise is basically because they didn’t stand many candidates the time before?

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  34. NICKP

    “People seem to be forgetting that in a 3 party election Labour got a comfortable majority on 35% of the vote in 2005. In 2015 it could well be a landslide with 4 parties”
    ____

    But the polls at the moment don’t point to that scenario.

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  35. Sorry to ask a sausage making question, but are any of the people saying “Labour need to be at X gains/popular vote this election to win westminster” actually using any kind of model to derive X?

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  36. @Eddie – ” …elevating UKIP to a permanent foothold and giving their ideas greater currency”

    The “Labour’s mess” mantra reinvigorated blame culture… but things aren’t any better under the Coalition.

    Also permission to finger EU/immigrants/welfare scroungers for the problems of austerity was also fostered in the early days of this parliament.

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  37. @John B:
    Since when has a lack of popular support ever stopped a party with a majority from doing pretty much whatever it pleased? A party with a soggy mandate but 350+ seats can do whatever it can rally enough MPs to support.

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  38. New thread

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  39. Presumably UKIP have also benefited from the collapse of the BNP vote.

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  40. It’s actually worth pointing out that UKIP have technically ‘lost’ seats in London as councillors who defected to them (perhaps after deselection) have failed to be re-elected. So depending on how you count things, their total gains may be slightly better than they look.

    Labour’s gains in Croydon, Merton and Redbridge and the Conservatives’ in Kingston were expected. Hammersmith and Fulham was a surprise though because population change has made what used to be a Labour borough difficult to regain. And no doubt it will lead to Phil Haines being banned from another bookmaker. It will be interesting to see how the continuing ‘tri-council’ thing with Westminster and K&C goes. The result in Barnet may also be worth watching, though a safe Labour ward there has a deferred election due to the death of a candidate.

    It was also interesting that the Lib Dems made gains not just in Sutton, but in Richmond too – both presumably a re-establishment of a ‘local premium’ that had been lost in a GE. Unfortunately this sort of result may encourage Clegg in his ‘forting up’ narrative and ignore the devastation outside the walls of their local strongholds.

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  41. @Roger Mexico

    It will be interesting to see how the UKIP story plays out but judging by what I see around here it’s unwise to treat them like any other party.
    Frankly, the local candidates here ranged from barely literate via distinctly odd to ideological right wingers (possibly swivel-eyed racists but no evidence).
    It doesn’t look to me like a party in the conventional sense: there doesn’t appear to be any kind of vetting of candidates (whatever the party hierarchy says) nor any consistent political philosophy other than NOTA – not even on Europe or immigration.
    Of course they have the huge advantage of not having any power, anywhere: I think if they did it would be utterly chaotic and make Green Brighton look like Valhalla. This lack of any test means, I think, that they will sustain more support through to the GE than we have traditionally expected and I’d be surprised if they are at less than 12-15%, and I think there will be quite a lot of ‘natural’ Lab voters in there.

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  42. @Steve

    “If we are genuinely entering a period of 4 Party Politics with the Third and Fourth Parties picking up over a Third of votes between them this has significant implications”

    With a third between Lib / UKIP, and 6%-8% to others, that would mean 60% to Con / Lab, or sub-30% each. We are seeing sub 70% right now, but I’m not sure it will drop below 65% too much.

    @John B

    “Like I said earlier – we’re looking into dense fog, so stop pretending that all is wonderful on your particular part of the political spectrum”

    Everything is wonderful here. The Westminster elite are going to have to be more and more credible moving into 2015, if they want to put UKIP into the shadows. Both Con and Lab face a split if they spin things too much with the voters (who know when they’re being fed a pup). UKIP are going to generally annoy everyone, and with any luck, it will benefit the voters, and increase turnout.

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  43. @Shevii (racism / 10% off)

    The same can be said for an overtly different accent in some parts of the country. I don’t think it’s racism, so much as ‘not one of us’ -ism.

    Perhaps we should look at the more ethnic constituencies and see who gets elected, and why? Is it colour, party, or policies?

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  44. 2015 and UKIP? Easy – more people care about Westminster so more will vote diluting the UKIP effect as they already have their maximum out. As well, the Tories who vote UKIP for protest (EU election don’t really matter ) will also return back to Tories. Why? Not all people are stupid – given UKIP still do not have an MP why waste your vote…

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  45. @statgeek:

    By construction, all constituencies are ethnic, it’s just that some are multicultural & some are a monoculture. If you want to look at monocultures which aren’t white Britsh, then councils seem to have 2011 census data available which might give you a coarse grained version of what you’re suggesting looking.

    You may well find it hard to disentangle the strands of culture, party and policy though, because they are of course inter-related

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  46. All constituences are multi-cultural; it just depends on how you define ‘culture’; Liverpool and Everton supporters’ have different cultures on one way; various religions; place of birth and so on. We all have different ‘cultures’ within us.

    Monoculturalism is the weird lot – Plymouth Brethren, Jehovah’s Witnesses, Hasidic jews are examples of some groups who share absolutely nothing with the world around them.

    I can imagine nothing worse than being in a mono-culture; let my food be alive to more than fish and chips, let my football team have various ethnicities, let my tv watching be drawn from the world, let me travel to other countries, let me disagree with people and so on…

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  47. Can anyone enlighten me as to why government forms are required to be filled in, in indelible black ink, but ballot papers are marked with a soft pencil which would be incredibly easy to alter?

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  48. Only easy to alter if you are either paranoid or incredibly criminal….

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