YouGov’s final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov’s recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the Conservatives in third place and a similarly tight race between the Greens and Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

A couple of methodology notes – the poll was weighted by likelihood to vote (so people who said they were 10/10 likely to vote or had already voted by post were given full weight, people 9/10 likely to vote weighted by 0.9, 8/10 weighted by 0.8 and so on) and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region.

The only other final call poll still due that I’m aware of is from Opinium – I’ll update when that arrives.

UPDATE: And here it is, Opinium’s final poll for the Daily Mail is CON 21%, LAB 25%, LD 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%. Unless a surprise Populus or MORI poll pop up tomorrow that should be it for European election polling.


210 Responses to “YouGov final European poll – CON 22, LAB 26, LD 9, UKIP 27, GRN 10”

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  1. John B I would like to have voted Green but decided to play safe and voted SNP to keep UKIP out.

  2. @John B, Hireton – If you wish to be xenophobic that is your affair, but for the present, you are still part of the United Kingdom.

  3. “@ nickp

    I had a choice for the Council between UKIP and Con.

    One spoilt ballot.”

    I have had this situation of only having a choice of Lib Dems or Tory. So annoyed by the lack of choice, I wrote across the whole ballot paper, “none of these”. I would have felt exactly the same, it has been Labour or Lib Dems or any other two horse race.

    Not good for democracy in my opinion, when in some areas of the country, you only have two parties fielding candidates and often only one party will win.

  4. Just voted in Essex. There is a strange party first on the voting slip called something like ‘A UK Independent Party’ – not UKIP who are last. Is this attempt to gain the donkey vote going to work and take a few UKIP points? Quite possibly…

    In Australia many year ago they randomised places on voting slips – too many MPs were elected from the first third of the alphabet. The issue above is a classic example of why that lead should be followed here…

  5. So no-one talking about the different polling companies on this polling website?

    Seems we have a bit of a battle for who is “right”. All polling companies a bit different but seems to be a divide between YouGov/ICM and Comres and the others. It’s the same sort of difference we see in GE polls and it doesn’t seem to have closed on the eve of the Euro election. A 5 point UKIP difference (on the last two polls above) is outside of MOE and typical of the whole campaign’s polls difference between polling companies.

    Most people’s predictions on here seem to be more towards YouGov/ICM.

    I wouldn’t necessarily change my views on which polling company is best (yougov) based on the results as I think the Euros are unpredictable and not comparable with the way you could predict a General Election, but if Comres proves to be closer it will add support to the argument that some pollsters underestimate UKIP support.

  6. @Johnb

    Well that’s us told. I think CG is not entirely tuned in to the idea of a UK of four nations.

  7. Lots of economic news this morning from the Office for National Statisitcs, if anyone is interested

    ‘In April 2014, public sector net borrowing…. as £11.5 billion. This was £1.9 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £9.5 billion.’

    Income tax revenues fell by 6.8% y/y to £11.1bn

    from the ONS

    There is that disparity again between rising employment and poor income tax receipts

    ‘UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Q1 2014’

    made up of
    0.5 Household expenditure
    0.2 Stock building
    0.1 Investment

    from the ONS

    Household expenditure driving the recovery

    ‘Outstanding personal debt stood at £1.441 trillion at the end of March 2014 Up £17 billion in a year.

    ‘Outstanding unsecured (consumer credit) lending stood at £159.8 billion at the end of March 2014.up £3.5bn in a year’

    from The Money Charity

  8. @RHuckle

    Your account points to why canvassing returns are to be taken with large pinches of salt. These days, the majority of people will give you whatever response they think will most quickly get rid of you! Where you locate known and trustworthy supporters, it’s useful to know where they are and if tellers at ballot stations are recording polling card numbers, then local party constituency committee rooms can check off whether their vote is turning out an, where it isn’t, knock them up up accordingly. This might even involve ferrying voters to polling stations if they had no transport of their own.

    I may be describing a lost and departed world here, though.

    On the prediction front, on the basis that I detect a little bit of late softening of the UKIP vote, I’m going Labour 28, UKIP 27, Tories 20, Lib Dem 7, Greens, 7 in the Euros and, in the council elections, Labour to gain about 150-200 councillors.

  9. @JohnB

    I’m voting Green (anyway) and hoping to keep out UKIP but its certainly marginal as to whether Green or SNP is the better tactical anti UKIP vote.

    In such a situation probably better to vote for whichever one you prefer.

    If you want a non political reason for voting Green, Chas Booth at number 2 on the Green list is a thoroughly nice chap who I knew when he worked for the cycle routes charity Sustrans. (Not that Greens will get 2 elected anyway!).

    Equally Iain McGill at number 5 on the Tory list is a nice bloke to have a pint with but I still won’t be voting Conservative!

  10. @ ozwald

    “When canvassing I look for ‘the best 20%’. That is, if returns showed more than this then they were over-optimistic and it would be best to have a re-canvass done by an experienced worker.”

    One of our most experienced canvassers doesn’t believe anyone. His returns are generally nil. He usually only puts them down as a yes if they take one of our posters.

    At least we get a pleasant surprise when the results are announced even if there is a lack of knocking up in the areas he’s done!

  11. @Hireton – “I think CG is not entirely tuned in to the idea of a UK of four nations.”

    I should hope not. We are, after all, better together.

  12. @ChrisGreen

    Referring to Scottish results as “National Level” is not in anyway Xenophobic and it seems bizarre to even suggest that.

    Whatever the constitutional framework post September politics in Scotland will continue to be a different conversation to that south/east of the border (east being an important distinction to make as an Englishman originally from a place further north than large parts of Scotland ;-) )

    Whether UKIP gets a foothold in Scotland is of more concern to me than whether they top the national UK poll especially as a Scottish UKIP MEP would no doubt be given a disproportionate amount of media coverage for the next 4 years. Interestingly there seems to be some question over where the lead UKIP candidate actually lives in Scotland:
    http://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/where-does-david-coburn-live/

  13. @Norbold
    “One of our most experienced canvassers doesn’t believe anyone. His returns are generally nil.”

    LOL. I would get along with your man I think. Have a good day and I wish all polling addicts on here a good day too. Let’s hope there is something for everyone when we get the results.

  14. Just toddled down to my polling station. Was surprisingly busy, four people coming out as I arrived, four people in there already voting.

    Used to having the place to myself, waited upon hand and foot by poll clerks.

  15. @Jack:
    I’m surprised that An Independence From Europe (the party which I believe filed for that ballot description) was allowed to get away with that. It’s right up there with “Liberal Democrat Top Choice Parliament”…

    @Shevii:
    I definitely get what you’re saying; there’s probably a decent case to combine North East with one of its neighbors due to its small size, or to otherwise redistrict the three northern constituencies.

    As to the polling companies…I believe ICM is wrong, but I don’t know what they’re doing wrong. Everyone else seems plausible; ICM is just far enough “off the reservation” with their Tory share repeatedly (and lacking in anyone else agreeing with them) that I think there’s an in-house problem of some sort. Other than that, the only poll that was rather “off” was one of YouGov’s…and frankly, as much as YouGov polls, they’re going to have that sooner or later.

  16. I am surprised so many of you do not have postal votes. Is it some sort of cathartic experience or just a means of keeping LGOs employed?

  17. CB
    Not lost and departed in W-S-M, but we won’t be bothering too much this time cos it’s only the Euros with us, no locals. It’s just started to rain.

  18. @NorthumbrianScot – “How dare you say I’m xenophobic – and by the way, I vill only accept candidates who live in ze Vaterland!”

  19. Been to the polling station to vote. It was quiet.

  20. @Jack: “Just voted in Essex. There is a strange party first on the voting slip called something like ‘A UK Independent Party”

    I believe they’re standing everywhere and could cost UKIP one or two points.

  21. Surprised how well Labour did here:

    http://blog.38degrees.org.uk/2014/05/21/eu-elections-where-the-parties-stand

    Less surprised that UKIP couldn’t even be bothered to respond.

  22. @ Crossbat

    “These days, the majority of people will give you whatever response they think will most quickly get rid of you!”

    That is the last thing you should do unless a) you vote early and b) you make sure al the tellers have written your polling number down correctly.

    I once did knocking up and one particular person had just left his door open and when I knocked he didn’t even come to the door just shouted “F*** off- I’ve already voted” – now given that this was the first knocking up from our party he had obviously told other parties he was voting for them as well and probably hadn’t voted either or refused to give the tellers his number!

    I was the only one in my polling station- no tellers, no police, nothing and for the locals this is a marginal ward albeit they have one councillor elected 3 out of 4 years which is a lot of work to put in each and every year.

    Raining here and cat not going out- I guess Rosie and Daisie are similarly minded?

  23. At 533, the last YouGov Scottish sample was large enough to have been worth publishing re-weighted on their post 2011 “Scottish” criteria, which has been done and published before. Weighting down the 165 SNP/PC responses to 104 based on 2010 Westminster vote is clearly daft in this context.

    That re-weighting does not appear to have been done suggests a repeat of “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time” given that the staunchly unionist “Scottish” press are anti both UKIP and the SNP. Which of them would want to publish a poll supportive of either or both?

    Accordingly, the best guesstimates of the outcome need to be made on the two reasonably similar polls of last week by Survation and ICM.

    My prediction is a slight stiffening for both anti-establishment parties, but with the Cons also stiffening just enough to save their MEP. So:
    38% SNP 25% Lab 12% Con 11% UKIP 9% Grn 6% LD

    In MEPs, that would still give 3 SNP 2 Lab 1 Con, with UKIP getting the Con seat instead if they have a very good day.

    For quick d’Hondt predictions, http://www.dhondt.eu/php/ is still useful aftermore than 15 years in service.

  24. “Raining here and cat not going out- I guess Rosie and Daisie are similarly minded?”

    Since today on UKPR seems to Open Diary Day then I s’pose that I should report that Rosie asked out earlier to eat some plants [some form of self medication I assume] and we are now on the bed together collectively resting our legs: the gurls through utter idleness, me through pain.

    Ironically, my drive to the hospital yesterday to confirm that my thrombosis is in a superficial vein [cheeky description I felt] made my leg considerably worse and I am now in even more agony than before.

    I shall, of course, keep you posted throughout the day.

    Paul

  25. @ChrisGreen

    Parachuting in Candidates from Head Office / London / wherever is by no means limited to UKIP but I really don’t think its unreasonable to criticise someone seeking election in an area they don’t live in.

    Standing in a neighbouring ward / constituencies is fair enough but 300 miles away is probably not an ideal starting point for finding a good, local elected representative.

    Throwing in a borderline racist/Godwinesque reference just undermines whatever argument you may be attempting.

  26. Is d’Hondt a car?

  27. Just a thought, but has anyone tried taking the Scotland constituency out of the GB polls to get E&W predictions?

    Removing ~4m voters with very different VIs for today, should make a significant [albeit not huge] difference to E&W VIs, with Con & UKIP being beneficiaries.

  28. @Chris Green

    When talking about the UK to folk from the continent I tend to use the example of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire: one State, but differing nations. Friends in Milan appreciated this explanation as it reminded them of the situation in Lombardy prior to the beginning of Italian unity. It is possible for differing nations to coexist in the same State. We’ve been doing it in the UK for some time. Problems arise when either the original cause for union no longer applies, or when the smaller partners feel that they have been mistreated.

    The recognition that the UK is not made of one nation but of several, is fundamental if the UK is to survive in its present form. As your own comments show, however, there seems a great reluctance on the part of those who live in England to make any distinction between the UK and England. If anything xenophobia is the affliction suffered by the English, who seem incapable of understanding anyone else.

    As to voting in advance by post, today’s situation in Scotland is precisely why it would have been a bad thing. SNP seem now to be assured of three seats. What matters is getting a Green elected (the LDs being a none starter) rather than a UKIP, and a week or two ago that was not necessarily the situation.

  29. @Barbazenzero

    Are you seriously suggesting we vote Tory in order to keep UKIP out?

  30. @Barazenzero

    That was in response to yours of 11.49 a.m.

  31. Just got back from voting for UKIP.

    My paper wasn’t folded to obscure UKIP only though… seems to be happening only in some cities.

  32. Trust UKIP voters to come up with a folded ballot paper paranoia where even the polling station staff are in on the conspiracy.

  33. You are aware it was a big story back in 2009 too?

  34. @MRNAMELESS

    Sounds like The Crystal maze or something. Maybe you should dress up as Richard O’Brien and prance around giving people directions.

    @HOWARD

    I don’t agree with the extensive use of postal votes so it’d be a tad hypocritical of me to use one. Plus I generally prefer the act of taking part on the day.

    Speaking of which, I just voted I think one of the two people leaving had just voted (suspect the old lady was at the community centre salon) and one person came in to vote as I was nailing my ballot in. About average for my area.

  35. BALLOTS, I should say.

  36. @Skippy

    A humongous story. So humongous in fact that I have never heard of it.

  37. @Skippy

    “You are aware it was a big story back in 2009 too?”

    What was? UKIP paranoia? Wouldn’t be surprised.

  38. @SKIPPY: “You are aware it was a big story back in 2009 too?”

    UKIP paranoia about folded ballot papers was a story then too but I’m not sure about ‘big’. Their threatened legal challenge never materialised. Perhaps the alphabet is a conspiracy.

  39. @RogerH

    Surely its all the fault of the Greeks for putting Upsilon at the end of the alphabet instead of at the beginning.

    The European conspiracy against UKIP started 3,000 years ago!!!

  40. “If anything xenophobia is the affliction suffered by the English, who seem incapable of understanding anyone else. ”

    I think you’re confusing xenophobia with just looking blank when people insist on talking forrun.

  41. It doesn’t look like it will be much of a concern anyway.

    bookies have slashed UKIP odds to all time low of 1/3. Looks like they know what’s coming.

  42. skippy

    What the bookies “know” is how much money they have taken on which parties.

    No more than that.

    You could argue that the punters know – but, of course, they could be wrong.

  43. It’s bucketing down here today. Voting at around teatime. It’s generally busy, so will see if the rain has made a difference.

  44. And why we dont vote on a Saturday and close at 6pm I don’t know. You want normal people to be involved in voting? Give them a chance to see the whole process at work and see the count in tv.
    Schools would prefer it to…

  45. My Dilemma

    Heavy rain in Manchester after sunny spell.

    According to rational-choice theory, it is irrational (against my self-interest) to vote if the cost exceeds the benefit. If it were sunny weather = no cost, as I would enjoy the stroll to the polling booth. But the rain makes the cost exceed the gain, i.e., the infinitesimal chance that I would affect the outcome.

    According to game theory, if everyone took this view, then no one would vote & one vote would decide the outcome; so I would sneak out & cast that vote; hence, everyone votes to prevent that outcome, so my vote has zero effect & hence is irrational, etc, etc.

    Of course by voting I “express” myself, gain satisfaction from performing a civic ritual duty, commemorate those who struggled to gain universal suffrages, etc.

    Ah, it’s stopped raining, I need urgently to post a letter in the box which is next to the polling station, so gain exceeds cost: phew!

  46. Sorry to hear about the greater pain Paul.. doubtless all the kerfuffle to get to the hospital and adrenals pumping. Surprised you didn’t join Rosie – I believe couch grass has loads of active medicinal compounds ( I hope so anyway because the bl..dy stuff must be good for something other than invading flower beds!)

  47. As I am laid up today I am keeping a check on the detailed weather conditions at all polling stations, whereever possible.

    Please keep the reports of rain – particularly whether it is drizzle or bucketing – and I will work on the graphs and update you in a year or so.

    No need to tell me if its “muggy” [its muggy here for example] as I shall naturally enter that as the default position.

    Ta very much.

  48. ta very much to Sue also.

  49. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    fred

  50. Thought the polling station was busy. It’s in a library which this time is still operating, All the people were queuing to take books out…

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