YouGov’s final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov’s recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the Conservatives in third place and a similarly tight race between the Greens and Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

A couple of methodology notes – the poll was weighted by likelihood to vote (so people who said they were 10/10 likely to vote or had already voted by post were given full weight, people 9/10 likely to vote weighted by 0.9, 8/10 weighted by 0.8 and so on) and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region.

The only other final call poll still due that I’m aware of is from Opinium – I’ll update when that arrives.

UPDATE: And here it is, Opinium’s final poll for the Daily Mail is CON 21%, LAB 25%, LD 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%. Unless a surprise Populus or MORI poll pop up tomorrow that should be it for European election polling.


210 Responses to “YouGov final European poll – CON 22, LAB 26, LD 9, UKIP 27, GRN 10”

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  1. Haven’t posted in forever –

    Prediction:
    UKIP 32, Lab 23, Con 22, Lib 7, Green 5

    If my forecast wins, do I get a prize?

  2. Prediction:

    Lab 27, Con 27, UKIP 27, LD 7, Grn 9.

    Thanks to everyone working in polling stations and on counts and so on. I guess the local results will be out tonight and tomorrow?

  3. Tell you what if they want students to turn out they could try making the polling station easier to find: through an entrance nobody uses, through a door, round a corner, through a door, up some stairs, through another door, round another corner and only then can you vote!

  4. Regarding the Euros, I shall be surprised if:

    a) UKIP gain more than 25% of the vote at the Euros;

    b) Lab isn’t in first place in England, Scotland and Wales as well as GB overall;

    c) the Greens win more than 1 seat (in SE England), even if their % share of the overall vote in GB exceeds 10%;

    d) the SNP gain more than 2 seats (contrary to my post yesterday morning); or

    e) PC retains a seat.

    I think that it will be a good result for Lab (with similarly good results in the local elections), a below expectation result for UKIP and a bad night for the LDs and nationalists (SNP/PC). The YES campaign in Scotland will be weakened by being shown electorally to have minority support and that UKIP is an overblown threat.

    The danger for Lab is that it will lead them into a false sense of security for the GE in 2015.

  5. Daodao

    I don’t envisage such a good result for Labour; I think they will finish just in front of the tories in both the Euros and locals.

  6. For the Euro elections, I think the share of the vote will be the most important thing. With only 73 seats up for grabs there shouldn’t be huge numbers of seats changing hands. In some regions there are so few seats, after the top two usual suspects have had their share there’s not much left to grab.

    Most of those vulnerable to change ought to be LD and Conservatives, being as their vote share seems to be heading downward. In this sort of election, a few seats changing hands is worth a lot more at a GE.

  7. I have had no election material, other than from the postman, and the only poster I have seen is a UKIP one. I was tempted to deface this, but my liberal instincts won out!

  8. CMJ – I get confused with dehont but don’t Lab get the 6th seat they are over times higher than Greens or LDs?

  9. @Daodao

    On the result for Labour, I will be looking mainly at the locals. I have seen very little from them during this parliament which suggests Labour is on course for victory in 2015 and much which suggests that the Tory vote is pretty solid where it needs to be.

  10. Like Paul HJ – I think the Cons will get closer to Lab than polls suggest but that it will matter little in GE terms.

  11. @Oldnat

    I meant SNP 3%, not 6%!

  12. Say it’s UKIP 30, Lab 25, Con 18, Green 10 and LD 9
    First seat : UKIP 30, Lab 25, Con 18, Green 10 and LD 9
    For the next round UKIP is halved
    Second seat: UKIP 15, Lab 25, Con 18, Green 10 and LD 9
    For the next round Lab is halved
    Third seat: UKIP 15,Lab 12.5, Con 18, Green 10 and LD 9
    For the next round Con is halved
    Fourth seat: UKIP 15, Lab 12.5, Con 9, Green 10, LD 9
    For the next round UKIP is halved
    Fifth seat: UKIP 7.5, Lab 12.5, Con 9, Green 10, LD 9
    For the next round Lab is halved
    Sixth Seat: UKIP 7.5, Lab 6.25, Con 9, Green 10, LD 9
    Therefore UKIP win 2, Lab 2, Con 1, Green 1

  13. @Jim Jam

    If the Greens get 10%, a party would have to get 40%+ to deny the Greens the sixth seat, as they would have to have their vote halved twice and still exceed 10%.

  14. I think the SNP will get the 6th seat in Scotland. There is a stop UKIP campaign and even the Labour supporting newspapers are saying vote SNP to stop UKIP

  15. @CatManJeff – “If the Greens get 10%, a party would have to get 40%+ to deny the Greens the sixth seat, as they would have to have their vote halved twice and still exceed 10%.”

    Not quite. Try putting UKIP 26, Lab 24, Con 22, Green 10, LD 9 into your calculations for a 6 seat region.

  16. Alright, I finally found the actual super-poll. I kind of wish they’d broken it down by EU constituency…the poll was large enough to generate useful samples in most of the constituencies (only NE would likely have been shy, and it wouldn’t have taken much effort to do an oversample-and-downweight effort there).

    Anyhow, my prediction:
    UKIP 29
    LAB 26
    CON 21
    GRN 9
    LIB 8
    OTH 7

    Some general thoughts:
    (1) I see the stronger Tory performances in ICM’s polls as a house effect. Three of their four polls showed the Tories coming in a bit high. Once is sample variation; three out of four is a pattern.
    (2) There’s a pretty broad consensus from the polls of the last few days: Labour 26-28, Conservatives 20-23, LibDems 7-10. The main variation is UKIP (24-33), which seems to be down heavily to likelihood to vote intention. I personally believe that throwing out all but 10/10 voters on this front is not wise, but neither is weighting folks by that number. I do like using other cues (such as whether people know what day the election is, etc.) and/or heavier downweighting for non-10/10 voters, but not their total exclusion.
    (3) As to patterns, everyone has been more or less flat over the last week or two. UKIP’s momentum stalled out, but they don’t seem to have “rolled back” much from their peak.
    (4) Looking at 2009, and based on who is on the ballot, I do think there’s less of a chance of a major “vote leak” from Labour and the LibDems. There /is/ a substantial risk of such a leak from the right. I’m expecting it will be somewhat muted, but probably sufficient to deny UKIP getting to 30%.

    On that note, I expect to be back on here sometime in the evening to chat about results and the like (much as we’ve done at a number of elections in the past…I do fondly remember the local elections a few years back).

  17. @CMJ

    You do not divide by half twice. The second time round you divide by 1.5 (so the original vote is divided by 3).

  18. @catmanjeff

    Translated into d’Hondt quotas that would be…

    Ukip 2.75, Lab 2.625, Con 1.9, Green 1.0, LD 0.9?

  19. As Hal says, at each round of seat distribution you divide the number of votes a party has by the number of seats already awarded plus 1.

    The easiest way I’ve seen of visualising it is to think of the individual candidates. The top candidate in each party list gets the whole number of votes for that party. The second candidate in each party list gets half their party’s votes. The third candidate gets a third of their party’s votes and so on. Put them all in order, and the appropriate number of candidates with the most votes are elected.

  20. @ Catman

    30.5% gets you a third seat ahead of 10%.

    Just realised how ridiculous this system is. No-one is voting for a specific MEP is (certainly under this system as we have no choice with party lists), there is not the argument that we get with FPTP that you need stable government with an overall majority as there are so many parties across Europe with differing views anyway.

    Therefore, subject to some consideration for keeping out extremist parties with only 2 or 3 % support, why it is not full PR I do not know.

    Most of all people have looked blankly at me when I try and explain it and the only people who look satisfied at the end of my explanation are kippers if I add “it was a European that invented it” to which they can say “that explains everything”.

    I do wish they’d kept goal average in the football though- now and again I can have people look to me for advice about what happens if a goal goes in in one of the group games but not nearly as much as if it had been goal average. At least the qualification rules in the World Cup are nearly as complicated as De Honte but not in domestic matches.

  21. @CMJ

    Could be wrong, but think you’re mistaken re the fifth step in your example.

    I thought, instead of constantly halving: 30, 15 , 7.5, you divide the vote (30) by which seat they’d be getting.

    So 30, 15 (second seat = 30/2), 10 (third seat = 30/3) etc.

  22. Yes, I’ve checked my list, and I was wrong about the method, but same result.

    The Greens one of the big three to score less than twice the Green vote.

  23. CMJ – and none to get more than 3 x the Green vote.

    As per Craig 30.5 gets the last seat above 10%.

    (I thought same as you but checked after Roger M put me right).

  24. Lonely here today. Usually enjoy chatting to the other polling agents, but I’m the only one.

  25. “@ tingedfringe

    Haven’t posted in forever –

    Prediction:
    UKIP 32, Lab 23, Con 22, Lib 7, Green 5

    If my forecast wins, do I get a prize”

    Yes, we will let you post again !

    Been out to vote for the EU’s. The only person outside checking people going in was a Tory. There is usually a Lib Dem as well. I can never understand why they are checking to see if you are one of the people who said you would be supporting them. Do they phone you up to remind you, if you don’t show up to vote ? I

  26. @OldNat – “Lonely here today. Usually enjoy chatting to the other polling agents, but I’m the only one.”

    Sounds like a metaphor for independence.

  27. R Huckle yes.
    Check off system – and even disturb viewing of Coronation street if not voted by 730 by ‘knocking out’

    Labour will do this is in all marginals in the GE so about 100 seats perhaps and it does make a difference – can be a few hundred votes.

    Also lifts to the polling station although postal votes make this less prevelant.

  28. @R Huckle

    Yes they do or knock on your door

  29. @ R Huckle

    “I can never understand why they are checking to see if you are one of the people who said you would be supporting them. Do they phone you up to remind you, if you don’t show up to vote ? I”

    Yes. The point of canvassing is not to convince you to vote for their party, it is to find out where your supporters are. The polling numbers are checked to see if the supporters have turned out. If they haven’t you will get a phone call or a knock on the door to remind you to vote.

    This level of organisation is something the Conservatives are very good at; Labour not quite so good but still fairly efficient in their good areas; the LibDems used to be good at but don’t have the organisation any more and something UKIP are not good at and could make a bit of a difference to the overall percentages.

  30. @Jim Jam

    That is correct.

    I should know better, but I have had about two weeks of about four hours sleep every night.

    I need a post-election break :-)

    (after Sunday)

  31. @DaoDao

    I think you make a serious mistake if you consider electoral performance of parties in Scotland as having a consistent link to voting intention in the Referendum.

    Voters are used to ticket splitting and many SNP (and Green) voters are against Independence while plenty of Labour & Lib Dem voters are in favour.

    There is a correlation of course but assuming party electoral performance translates into Referendum intentions is not a good idea IMHO.

  32. We should have a good indication of how things are going later tonight. First thing turnout – Are they allowed to announce the Euro turnout? Then the relative performances at the locals will give good indication of whose vote has turned out. I think turnout might be higher than expected due to the focus on UKIP with folk energised both to vote for and vote against. Then the spin messages from the parties who will have a good idea what has happened on the ground. So fun fun fun days of speculation.-

  33. @Newhouset

    “On the result for Labour, I will be looking mainly at the locals. I have seen very little from them during this parliament which suggests Labour is on course for victory in 2015 and much which suggests that the Tory vote is pretty solid where it needs to be.”

    “Wee, sleeket, cowran, tim’rous beastie,
    O, what a panic’s in thy breastie!”

    I thought Burns was a little more appropriate to describe this innate defeatism, although I understand where Drunkenscouser is coming from when he refers to serial “bedwetters”!

  34. Well that’s a 100% turnout for our household and 2 votes for one party!

    The Polling Place was very quiet. Looked like about 10 people had voted by 10am but that could be a significant proportion of the local population.

  35. @Shevii:
    I think keeping out minor parties with incidental support is a major reason for keeping to regions with 10 or fewer seats (which puts a functional threshold at about 6-10% for most regions).

    With that said, the other region is that…well, let’s just say that it would be interesting to see a single national constituency including Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland with England. I cannot help but wonder how many votes the DUP might pile up in lieu of other hard-right parties in Great Britain in some years, or how many “south of the border” votes the SNP would get.

    Because of regional parties (remember, some of the smaller parties have allied parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland rather than competing themselves), I suspect it was felt necessary by all to have regions in England as well so you weren’t fighting for 6-7 seats in Scotland and over 50 in England…while a single national constituency would either end up disenfranchising large regional parties or letting in lots and lots of smaller parties amid scattered protest votes (i.e. Socialist Labour and No2EU might well have snuck in last time).

  36. @norbold
    “Yes. The point of canvassing is not to convince you to vote for their party, it is to find out where your supporters are.”

    When canvassing I look for ‘the best 20%’. That is, if returns showed more than this then they were over-optimistic and it would be best to have a re-canvass done by an experienced worker.

    In a marginal seat If you knocked on 100 doors at random then, In a local election, you would expect around 65 not to turn out and vote. That leaves you around 15% as your share. Four doors out of five approx are stony ground.

    For me the best clue was to look a voter straight in the eye at the moment you say “i am from the (whatever) party”. Tiz hard for them to hide their true feelings in that first second or two.

  37. @Old Nat

    My wife and I wonder how best to keep out UKIP.

    Ought we to vote SNP or Green?

  38. SNP FOR THREE?

    There have been five real Euro opinion polls in Scotland in the last few weeks (including two this week alone) and each of them have suggested that the SNP will make it to three seats and UKIP will get nothing.

    However it is tight between the SNP’s potential third seat and the UKIP one. Now YouGov publish a cross break (biggish sample but not a real poll) which suggests the opposite. There were two other cross breaks polls yesterday from Opinium and Survation (smaller samples but still unweighted crossbreaks) which in contrast show very big SNP percentages.

    If YouGov are wrong (and I believe they are) it will reinforce the view that they have a Scottish problem in their polling which they could and indeed should sort out immediately – or alternatively not publish large sample unweighted crossbreaks on eve of poll.

    Anyway, good luck to Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh for the SNP’s three.

    It would be a very good way to stop UKIP in Scotland.
    with all sorts of great messages for a tolerant and forward looking country.

  39. @Old Nat

    Sorry – it looks as though we’re not going out to vote till this evening. Maybe I’ll ask again late this afternoon when you’ll have a better idea of how things are going.

  40. @John B – I would have thought that the overall story will be whether UKIP comes top or not at a national level. By that reasoning, it would most diminish UKIP for you to vote for the party that you think will come top other than UKIP at a national level.

  41. I had a choice for the Council between UKIP and Con.

    One spoilt ballot.

  42. @John B

    My daughter had the same question and I told her to vote SNP to keep UKIP out, so did my husband. Meanwhile I voted by post (thinking I would be away on business today) a week ago before the polls were clearer.

  43. Unusual for a low turnout election. One voter just told me she was 57 and just cast her first ever vote.

  44. @LH

    Your comments on YG in Scotland strike a chord. I’ve been perplexed for some time about YG and Populus being sometimes so wildly different in their Scottish figures. However, I would prefer to err on the side of caution. Better to be with YG and pleasantly surprised than with Populus and deeply disappointed.

    SNP Euros – are we sure SNP will get three? If so I’ll vote Green (the wife usually votes Green anyway).

    You will say that one vote doesn’t really make a difference, but you never know……

    P.S. To those furth of Scotland who were not aware of the fact, Scottish Greens are for Independence.

  45. @Chris Green

    I was talking about at National level.

  46. My prediction for 1st place in all 28 EU countries (by political group in the EP)
    S&D
    Italy, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden
    EPP
    Austria, Bulgaria,Cyprus, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia, Spain
    ALDE
    Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Netherlands
    EUL/NGL
    Greece
    G/EFA
    Belgium
    ELD
    United Kingdom
    NEW FAR-RIGHT GROUP
    France

    I precise that these predictions are calculated by political family, so even if for example PVV gets 1st place in Netherlands, the winner is still ALDE (VVD+D66).

  47. L Hamilton

    Yes the comparative Scottish/English results will be fascinating and important. There is a piece in the Guardian today on a related theme by Michael White which is written with his – shall we say- normal level of charm and insight on anything Scottish.

    On a lighter note Matt’s cartoon today is a classic:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

  48. If I get canvassers at the door, asking whether I would vote for their party, I usually tell them I will be voting for their main opponents. So the Tories think I will be voting Lib Dem and the Lib Dems think I am Tory. So if they make a note of this, it confuses the people at the polling station, if they compare their lists.

    My votes actually vary, depending on whether it is EU, local or national. For the EU, as it is a PR system election, I have more choice. For local elections, I prefer independent candidates and for national I have to vote tactically to stop the party I don’t want being elected.

  49. @John B

    Your reply to Chris Green beat me to it!

  50. @ Gray

    Yes- I agree with that proviso (pure PR within regions) although I disagree with too small a region. the North East is just silly- 3 seats- obviously going to be one of each except this time there are 4 parties so a change from LD to UKIP but no chance of extra seats for anyone and very little chance for a smaller party, even if they were on 15% plus, to get a seat whereas the smaller party in London or South East might just get away with a vote under 10%.

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