YouGov’s final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov’s recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the Conservatives in third place and a similarly tight race between the Greens and Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

A couple of methodology notes – the poll was weighted by likelihood to vote (so people who said they were 10/10 likely to vote or had already voted by post were given full weight, people 9/10 likely to vote weighted by 0.9, 8/10 weighted by 0.8 and so on) and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region.

The only other final call poll still due that I’m aware of is from Opinium – I’ll update when that arrives.

UPDATE: And here it is, Opinium’s final poll for the Daily Mail is CON 21%, LAB 25%, LD 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%. Unless a surprise Populus or MORI poll pop up tomorrow that should be it for European election polling.


210 Responses to “YouGov final European poll – CON 22, LAB 26, LD 9, UKIP 27, GRN 10”

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  1. Anthony

    Poll of 6,000. By how much does that reduce moe?

  2. The thing I can see making a difference here is if UKIP win and the Lib Dems come fifth. Then there will be respective inter-party fighting which always seems to trip the Cons up whenever they begin to get a bit of momentum (I think the LDs have got resigned to their fate).

    I feel UKIP’s vote will surge on the day as they always seem to do a little better than predicted.

  3. Sun’s headline is about UKIP winning but really what this tells us is that it is too close to call. Hopes of a CON win are perhaps fading but it is still only a 2-3% swing from LAB or UKIP (or 1.5% from each) so who knows?

  4. Can anyone direct me to a council seat prediction from R&T??

  5. @Adrian

    Hard to draw past comparisons with UKIP as there has never been the hype about them that there has been this time. With prompting etc. they are now built into polling methods in a way they won’t have been previously.

  6. @Oldnat 1.3%

  7. I predict Lab will beat UKIP to 1st place.

    If they can be bovvered.

  8. Just posted on last thread, pointing out that UKIP VI in the national polls has been dropping like a stone for the last 2 weeks. I think we’re going to see a narrow Labour win.

    @NumberCruncher

    it’s only 1.1% for VI in the high 20s. 1.3% moe would apply for VI in the mid to high 40s.

  9. Number Cruncher

    Ta.

  10. Thanks Anthony.

  11. Gary Gibbon is reporting that Tory strategists consider these elections to be a “pre-booked heart attack”. Attention has shifted (the Dave and Boris roadshow) to Newark hoping it will show that Farage has peaked.

    “They are increasingly resigned to him retaining just under 10 per cent share of the vote [at the general election]. But they point out that in many marginal seats in 2010 the combined Ukip and BNP vote was around 10 per cent anyway. The BNP vote has crumbled, mostly into Ukip’s hands. Things haven’t changed that much is the argument. The margins aren’t so forbidding.”

  12. Is there a usual Westminster Yougov poll tonight?

  13. @schofieldkevin – Scots breakdown of Sun/YouGov Euro poll:

    Lab 28%
    SNP 26%
    Con 15%
    UKIP 13%
    Green 11%
    Libs 6%.

    HEALTH WARNING: 533 sample weighted at GB level

  14. Sun Twitter saying that the Sun is endorsing none of the parties tomorrow.

  15. Forgot to mention…probably because they don’t know who will win, and they won’t chance it, I think.

  16. Stan J

    Mmm A YouGov poll not weighted to Scottish demographics? Not convinced, but I will prob vote SNP instead of Green tomorrow – just in case.

  17. Number Cruncher/Oldnat,

    At the 95% confidence level, it reduces MoE by 0.52%.

  18. Are the cross breaks properly weighted in this poll? If not the sample size is irrelevant.

  19. Opinium poll for tomorrow’s Daily Mail –
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

  20. What is the moe among people telling me what the reduced moe in the YG poll is? :-(

  21. Cloud Spotter,

    “Are the cross breaks properly weighted in this poll?”

    Assuming a tin-opener…

  22. Can’t decide on who to vote for?

    http://uk.votematch.eu/

  23. “and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region” (and presumably in the same order? – but did you use the actual ballot paper or just the names?)

    Anyway, comparing the relative shares of UKIP and AIFE should allow us to work out how much people who have signed up to YouGov read their screen compared to ordinary voters reading their ballot paper…

  24. Oldnat,

    Number Cruncher gave the MoE, rounded up to one decimal place. I gave the difference between a poll with a sample size of 6,000 and the usual 3,000.

  25. OLDNAT

    The MOE on a proportion is the result of both the sample size *and* the value of the proportion, ie with the greatest uncertainty at 50% and least at 0% and 100%.

  26. Excitement’s a-brewing.

  27. @Adrian B

    Andrew Rawnsley gave us this a couple of weeks ago:

    ” …the psephologists at Plymouth University, project the cull of a further 340 Lib Dem councillors. That would be going on for half of the seats they are trying to defend and more than double the losses expected to be suffered by their Conservative coalition partners.”

    Their article is behind a paywall at the LGC… titled Lib Dems are in the line of fire. Quite how well Ukip will do is harder to gauge.

  28. I’m off to bed early, and excited by a neck-and-neck poll on the eve of voting. I’m going to attempt to be first in the polling booth tomorrow morning before heading up to Crookes in my finest/only suit to shepherd voters to the polls.

    Best of luck to those out campaigning or standing as candidates tomorrow – no matter what colour their political stripes!

  29. “Excitement’s a-brewing.”

    Where?

    Why??

    Wot???

    When????

  30. Turns out that I go with the Tories on the issues, but I stand by my SNP vote on the basis that the EU parliament is primarily a racket for regional subsidies, and the SNP is naturally very interested in (being seen to get) the best deal for Scotland.

    Anyway, it’s an uncivilised system that restricts me to one vote. I like elections like in 2011, when I got to vote three times in one day without breaking the law.

  31. these polls never seem to ask the question – ‘will you vote if it’s raining hard’ ?

    Constantly we are told it makes a difference to the Labour vote, and tomorrow it is forecast to rain more or less all day.

    If Labour win can we perhaps agree given the neck & neck polls that the weather no longer plays as much of a part ?

  32. And apparently I’d side with the FDP in Germany, which is not surprising at all. In fact, I’d love to see the FDP (or more realistically a party like them) stand in Scotland.

  33. Theresa May’s belligerent speech at the Police Federation Conference today has created some waves and while I’m doubtful about the wisdom of a Home Secretary being quite so publicly antagonistic towards the country’s police force, she has certainly shown courage and mettle. She’s developing into quite a formidable politician and one I’d probably been guilty of underrating up to now.

    This latest Euro election poll from YouGov, the last one I hope in the current orgy of opinion polls, does suggest a little weakening in UKIP’s position. Even if they only come a close second in the Euro elections, it would still be an extraordinary achievement for them, but I wonder if they may suffer from overblown expectation and anything less than a stonking win for them now will look and feel like an anti-climax? It could stall the bandwagon, although I suspect they’ll remain a large and resilient bubble that may be floating around mischievously right up to May next year. They’ve usurped the traditional Lib Dem position as the country’s go-to party of protest.

    Of course, from a purely party political point of view, tomorrow is all about bragging rights. If Labour can pip UKIP, run the Tories into third place and make solid gains in the council elections then it may give them escape velocity from their recent travails. If the Tories can come close to Labour for second place in the Euros, with UKIP winning, and keep their losses to respectable levels in the council elections, maybe even with the odd eye-catching victory, then they can paint Miliband as a “loser” and claim that their political recovery is underway. For the Lib Dems, I can’t see anything other than a very unseemly and public thrashing.

    All that said, I have a horrible feeling that the winners may well be UKIP, closely followed by the National Apathy Party.

  34. these polls never seem to ask the question – ‘will you vote if it’s raining hard’ ?

    That would be a silly question surely?

  35. Thoughtful,

    As far as I know, the empirical data on the effects of weather on turnout suggest that (presumably within reason) makes no significant difference. If people have decided they’re going to vote, then they will vote regardless of a bit of rain; and if they don’t feel like voting, they’ll spend spare time on a nice day at the park rather than in the polling booth.

  36. @OldNat – Those MoE figures are correct – assuming that you only believe MoE effects to come from pure statistical considerations, when in fact much of the error comes from sampling, question design, weighting, and other such human factors.

    But SHHH, because that’s something that we professional statisticians aren’t supposed to admit to: we’re supposed to pretend it’s all very scientific and precise. Winds me up no end.

  37. Crossbat11,

    I’ve felt for a long time that media coverage of Theresa May has often been inappropriate, bordering on sexist sometimes (like the fascination with her taste in shoes a decade back) and while I’m ignorant of the content of her speech, I’m glad that she’s getting some coverage for something policy-related.

    She’s survived for four years now in the job, which is quite an achievement in itself.

  38. I can’t wait for the excuses in the post match interviews:

    “Party X only won 15% more votes than us, so they must be really disappointed with such a poor result…”

    “We are delighted….we expect to lose all of our MEPs, but only lost 50% of them, so it’s been a good night for us…”

  39. @ Sine Nomine,

    There is: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

  40. Chris Green,

    Plus the assumption that the 95% confidence level is the right one, when actually it’s very dependent on the use to which the research is being put.

  41. Chris Green

    If we in UKPR didn’t think that moe was also affected by all those things, we’d have to simultaneously believe various sources all giving different answers to the same question.

    Though most people seem to be able to do that on almost anything!

    I was just asking about the statistical moe.

  42. Catmanjeff

    “I can’t wait for the excuses in the post match interviews”

    But how many teams will sack their managers?

  43. Missis Minty

    “@ Sine Nomine,

    There is: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%”

    Exit SN, stage right.

  44. Thank you Spearmint :)

  45. LibDems predict whitewash:

    “In that scenario, the document advises party figures to say: ‘Disappointed with the result but the party remains resolute and this was expected at this point in the electoral cycle.'”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/21/lib-dems-braced-for-wipeout-in-european-poll

  46. @Oldnat

    Well, two will be getting sacked in May…..

  47. CB11

    I have said for ages that she is likely to be the next leader.

    Mind you, they’re bonkers so what do I know?

  48. I see we’re all doing predictions.

    I’ll make mine Ukip 29%, Lab 28%, Tories 22%, LD 9%, Greens 8%.

    That way if I’ve got the ordering wrong it’ll be a pleasant surprise. I have to say, I’m almost more interested in which pollster comes out on top than which party does. Saaaad.

    And good luck tomorrow to Catmanjeff!

  49. @OLDNAT

    I didn’t really understand it to be honest but the Sun editor thought it worth retweeting so I posted it here like a good little lemming.

  50. @Bill Patrick – Yes, that is another one. I often find that it’s one of those cases where a little knowledge can be dangerous. Trying to explain to clients who know a little statistics that a result that is significant at the 94% level is still worth being aware of … that can be a painful process.

    @OldNat – Fair enough, and it is worth knowing the statistical MoE. But I all too often see people assuming that because they have a tight statistical MoE that they don’t need to worry about other factors. And I think that that is especially the case in these elections, because the situation is so unusual. It could be that the polls are perfectly accurate. Or it could be that they are complete rubbish. We don’t know. But a lot of ink, both real and metaphorical, is spilt analysing the minute ups and downs of the polls regardless.

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