YouGov’s final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov’s recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the Conservatives in third place and a similarly tight race between the Greens and Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

A couple of methodology notes – the poll was weighted by likelihood to vote (so people who said they were 10/10 likely to vote or had already voted by post were given full weight, people 9/10 likely to vote weighted by 0.9, 8/10 weighted by 0.8 and so on) and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region.

The only other final call poll still due that I’m aware of is from Opinium – I’ll update when that arrives.

UPDATE: And here it is, Opinium’s final poll for the Daily Mail is CON 21%, LAB 25%, LD 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%. Unless a surprise Populus or MORI poll pop up tomorrow that should be it for European election polling.


210 Responses to “YouGov final European poll – CON 22, LAB 26, LD 9, UKIP 27, GRN 10”

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  1. JOHN B
    Are you seriously suggesting we vote Tory in order to keep UKIP out?

    Certainly not. Oldnat’s dithering between SNP and Scottish Greens more like.

  2. ……

    But I suppose I am suggesting that the Cons getting their core vote out would not be unwelcome.

  3. I was taught that England and Scotland were separate “countries” or “nations” when I was in junior school over fifty years ago. Nevertheless the UK is clearly a country or a “nation” for international purposes. Which meaning applies is usually clear from the context. Since it was clear what Chris Green meant by national in his/her post, the response by John B and Hireton was pretty daft. Then of course Chris over-reacted. For goodness sake… Talk about a pointless argument.

  4. Conducting a full canvass and then knocking out your support on the day is known as the Reading system, which I presume is where it was first done. High levels of activity can affect a result as the Lib Dems proved in Redcar in 2010. The last time I organised a Reading was in 1983. For Labour. Talk about flogging a dead horse.

  5. Anyway-fascinating to hear everyone talking about nothing in particular while the real business of democracy plods methodically on. More polls next week?

  6. JCB336
    For goodness sake… Talk about a pointless argument.

    By that august television programme’s definition, on the state broadcaster which witters on about nation speaking to nation, the UK is a “country” defined by being a UN member state.

    Countrywide or Statewide would be a much more logical use of language than National in the context you infer that National was intended.

  7. I voted :) Split ballot in the end, both votes were somewhat grudgingly given to the parties in question but felt like I went for best worst options in both cases – Liberals for the Europeans and Labour locally (the latter case partly because my ward’s Liberal candidate is about to stand trial for allegedly hurting/hitting a child, so wasn’t about to vote for him!).

  8. @RosieandDaisie

    I have a similar problem with my legs (chronic venous insufficency/stasis dermatitiis/hemosiderin staining) and recently had a wicked thrombophlebitis flare that landed me in A&E. What have the doctors put you on (if you don’t mind me asking)?

    To put the “superficial” word in context: “superficial” means “above the muscle”, as oposed to “intramuscular” (in the muscle) or “deep” (beneath the muscle. If you’d’ve had a thrombosis in the deep veins of the leg (a DVT) and those veins had been damaged, you would have been in big trouble because those veins are difficult to fix and may require surgery with a low success rate. Although it hurts like a b*****d, superficial thromboses are considerably less dangerous

  9. @MSmithsonPB: Based on reports from all over country EP14 turnout looks set to top the best ever, 37.6% in 2004, by quite a margin. Could it get to 40%?

    Well as some of us suspected high turnout. I think UKIP has galvanised some voters pro or against.

  10. JohnB

    Spent the whole day in Aberdeen.

    For what it is worth, my impression is that the Tories will beat Ukip and the Greens will certainly not.

    The maths is really simple and close. The SNP have to get more than three times the Ukip total to freeze out Farage. I think they will make it but it will be a damn close run thing upon which much depends and every vote counts.

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