Survation have put our their final European election poll, conducted for the Daily Mirror. Topline figures are CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 32%, GRN 4%. Survation made an additional tweak to their approach to turnout for their final poll, downweighting people who could not correctly identify which day of the week the European election was on – this marginally increased UKIP support and reduced Labour support. Tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%. For the European election Labour and UKIP are neck and neck going into the final day: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8%. YouGov’s final poll is still to come tomorrow.

ComRes marginals poll due in about 20 minutes…


17 Responses to “Survation final Euro poll – CON 23, LAB 27, LD 9, UKIP 32, GRN 4”

  1. POLLCITEMENT CONTINUES.

    Seriously, neck and neck is very interesting indeed. The skies have emptied here in Sheffield so likely to be nice weather on Thursday. May help Labour if repeated nationwide?

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  2. UKIP are going to do this arn’t they….

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  3. Looks more likely than not. May still be Labour though. I think we can rule out a Con victory or second place.

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  4. Mr Nameless

    ” likely to be nice weather on Thursday. May help Labour if repeated nationwide?”

    Is there actual evidence of that weather effect? I can understand that those not committed to voting, and who haven’t already registered their postal vote, might be disproportionately put off by going out in adverse weather

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  5. Oldnat,

    Opinion is conflicted. When elections come about people get a bit superstitious though. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/may/03/weather-local-elections-2012

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  6. Whatever the UKIP vote and weather [small pun] they come first or second, this will be their high watermark.

    Its all down stream for them from here on.

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  7. @Mr Nameless

    It’s fascinating how various polling companies have so little faith in their standard methodologies to be able to accurately predict the result of the Euros. The tweaks and changes they have made to try to be seen as the most accurate pollster come Sunday night, actually makes it very difficult to pick up any trends.

    All we can say (in England and Wales at least)is:
    (a) UKIP voters are the most likely to vote and the most enthusiastic about the election. It appears that is why there is daylight between UKIP and Labour in some polls where the methodology has been tweaked;
    (b) the LDs may be headed for record lows;
    (c) the Tories will do badly but shrug it off unless the council election results are similarly disastrous. That’s unlikely as the Tories don’t have a lot to lose in the Mets.

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  8. I’ve seen this tweeted:

    Survation: Labour lead of 6 – CON (28%) LAB (34%) LD (9%) UKIP (20%)

    It will be overshadowed by the marginal poll no doubt.

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  9. In the battle on who will ‘win’ either UKIP or Labour. Will this be deemed by (media?) as total UK share of the vote or GB Share of vote (excluding NI) as I believe that UKIP are standing in NI but Labour are not?

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  10. @mrnameless

    Best take your brolly just in case… BBC’s weather forecast (Sheffield) is for heavy rain until lunchtime on Thursday, heavy rain showers thereafter.

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  11. Mr N

    Thanks for the link – I’d forgotten that West Wing episode!

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  12. Have any of the polls factored in the probability that UKIP is not likely to be able to organise the same level of Get Out The Vote as the three main parties?

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  13. Survation’s ‘tweak’ had the following effect on the Euro VIs (all voters/LTV weighted/tweaked):

    Con 23/23/23

    Lab 29/28/27

    L/D 9/9/9

    UKIP 29/30/32

    Another 10/10/10

    However it seems to me that there is a bit of a problem with the tweak (which weights down the votes of the ignorant by 0.6). If you have voted by post you don’t need to know what day the election is on. Admittedly if you think the date is ‘next week’ (the most popular choice for those who gave one) then you’ve got a problem if you haven’t sent it off yet. But otherwise your vote is certain.

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  14. @RAF – Any pollster who tells you she has absolute confidence in her poll leading up to these elections is either a liar or an incompetent. The present situation is unprecedented in British politics and so there has to be a substantial degree of uncertainty that goes far beyond dry statistical measurements of sample size-dependent Type I and II errors.

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  15. Interesting Survation poll. Labour remain within the 36-40% range, barring outliers.

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  16. The Survation poll also includes a Westminster VI question as well (p 22):

    Con 28% {28}

    Lab 35% {34}

    L/D 8% {9}

    UKIP 21% {21}

    SNP 4% {4}

    Green 3% {3}

    The first figure is likelihood weighted, the second after they do an ICM-like reallocation of DKs. It doesn’t make much difference.

    There’s also a Locals but that will take a bit of disentangling and may end up with a small sample.

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  17. Have all the ROC posters done themselves in when the Feast of The Crossover was seen to be an empty bag of peanuts?

    I think a footy chorus of “Sing when you’re winning.” is called for……

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