There is also a new Opinium poll out in this morning’s Daily Mail, with full details here on the Opinium website. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 31%, GRN 5%, BNP 3%. Labour and UKIP very close for first place, the Lib Dems equal with the Greens but on only 5%, which would probably lose them all their MEPs.

Turnout filter is those saying they are 5/10 likely to vote or higher. It’s unclear if this is Opinium’s final poll before the European election – the fieldwork was actually conducted at the tail end of last week.

UPDATE: Opinium didn’t include people at 5/10, it’s a bit more complicated than that: their final number includes people who are 9/10+ likely OR 7/10+ and voted the same way in 2009. Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov/Sun poll and an interesting ComRes poll at 10.30 (not Euros, something different…)


103 Responses to “Opinium European poll – CON 20, LAB 29, LD 5, UKIP 31, GRN 5”

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  1. Lib Dem 5% – that would be horrendous for them.

  2. Turnout filter is those saying they are 5/10 likely to vote or higher.

    I don’t think it is, though the tables are confusing. Those percentages appear to be based on a weighted sample of 1156:

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/eu_130514.pdf#page=3

    which looks more like 10/10 to me.

    Changes from previous poll:

    Conservative 20 -2

    Labour 29 +1

    Liberal Democrats 5 -2

    UKIP 31 +1

    Plaid Cymru 1 n/c

    Scottish National Party 4 n/c

    Green 5 n/c

    BNP 3 +1

  3. Farage has refused to go to Croydon because he doesnt feel safe there. There was a UKIP carnival he was due to appear at but decided Croydon wasn’t safe.

    The UKIP council candidate says he is right not to come because Croydon is ‘unsafe’ and a ‘dump’

    This after the Romanians is derailling the UKIP campaign. They seem to be losing momentum.

  4. I have worked out what the LTV=5-10 percentages are and they don’t make much difference:

    Conservative 19

    Labour 28

    Liberal Democrats 5

    UKIP 31

    Plaid Cymru 1

    Scottish National Party 4

    Green 6

    BNP 3

    Other 3

    Figures taken from here:

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/eu_130514.pdf#page=15

    total sample 1359. Unusually tightening of LTV doesn’t alter UKIP’s vote.

  5. Combined Tory/UKIP vote which are the two main eurosceptic parties promising referendum now reaches above 50%. It doesn’t matter too much whether UKIP or Labour come on top. Anti EU/right vote is quite evenly split . Results are going to be disastrous for Lib Lab europhiles.

  6. Cracking Spin Mctavish, IIMSS.

  7. Going to have to start putting the SNP in the titles if we keep the Lib Dems up there!

    @MACTAVISH

    The public don’t really see any of the main parties on their side with Euro-Sceptic views though. Hence UKIP.

  8. @Ewen Lightfoot – It may have been intended as spin, but it is fairly objectively true regardless. The poll results will indeed reveal a very high level of dissatisfaction with the European Union. This will surely not be seen as positive news by those who are satisfied with the EU, who are mostly clustered in the Labour and Lib Dem parties.

  9. The Tories aren’t eurosceptic. The members might be on the whole but the leaders they elect aren’t.

  10. “Lib Dems equal with the Greens but on only 5%, which would probably lose them all their MEPs”
    __________

    Surely if that were to happen coupled with what will probably be terrible council results for them Nick would have to go?

  11. The poll in my eyes that looks about right is the YouGov Euro Poll released yesterday.

    What do people think?

  12. @Allan Christie – You’re obviously forgetting this headline: “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26506372”

  13. ROGER MEXICO

    You have the SNP on 4 that’s up 2 on what they have now and what’s more Scotland only has 6 Euro MPS so that also means the SNP would win 70% (rounded off) of Scotland’s EMPS!!

    Old Nat will be buzzing.

  14. CHRIS GREEN

    Thanks for the link.

    Okay Clegg says he will remain party leader until 2020 meaning he would had been at the helm for 13 years!!

    Unlucky for some (no pun intended) but what he wishes for and who the party vote for are two completely different things.

    I can’t see Clegg remaining leader in 2015 because his name will be toxic in association with the Tories and that’s what’s losing them support.

  15. Allan Christie,

    But who would want Nick Clegg’s job?

  16. Just hearing on the radio that a UKIP event to highlight their ethnic minority candidates today has rather backfired, when the steel band they booked pulled out.

  17. Bill Patrick

    Allan Christie,

    “But who would want Nick Clegg’s job”
    ________

    I hear John Cleese would be an ideal candidate. ;-)

  18. YouGov’s Welsh poll:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/aet66b4b3v/ITV%20Wales%20Results%20140514%20Welsh%20Political%20Barometer_website.pdf

    also asked their standard referendum question If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?

    I would vote to remain a member of the European Union 44% (+3)

    I would vote to leave the European Union 33% (-5)

    Interestingly among those 10/10 likely to vote on Thursday the split was 51-38, so it’s not just anti-EU people who are keener on voting.

  19. Nick Clegg will not go.

    He’s got a job to do – take the flak until May 2015.

  20. Interesting Welsh VI for Westminster in Roger Mexico’s link.

    Ukip pushing PC into 4th place and Lib/dems dropping into 5th.

    It’s not just in Scotland and England they are getting a pasting, in Wales they are being rounded up like lambs and booted off the valleys straight for the slaughtering house.

  21. @Allan Christie

    Stop it, you’re making me hungry.

  22. @ AC

    RogerMexico’s figures for SNP was percentage of UK vote not seats.

  23. @RICHARD WHELAN

    “The poll in my eyes that looks about right is the YouGov Euro Poll released yesterday.

    What do people think?”

    ——–

    Well, it’s all a bit “dunno” for me Richard, what with MoE, LTV, d’hondt, phone vs online polling etc… personally I’m just hanging in there, waiting to see what happens…

  24. The UKIP council candidate says he is right not to come because Croydon is ‘unsafe’ and a ‘dump’

    -Oy not so much of the Unsafe!

  25. “But who would want Nick Clegg’s job?”

    ——-

    Chris Huhne?…

  26. Good early evening everyone.
    The LD figure looks a little low, IMO.

  27. Itv evening news came up with an attempt at knocking EM which was worthy of Pressman!

  28. shevii

    @ AC

    RogerMexico’s figures for SNP was percentage of UK vote not seats
    ___________

    Thanks for that, silly me. I was being side-tracked by the implosion of the Lib/dem VI.

  29. @ BFIELD

    “Itv evening news came up with an attempt at knocking EM which was worthy of Pressman!”

    I didn’t see it, but I was listening to John Pienaar on Radio 5 Live earlier. He had been out with Ed Miliband in Nottingham today. His view was the more people actually get to see Ed and speak to him the more they like him…..

  30. Lib Dems on 5%! How low can they go. I can’t wait to see how this translates to local elections. They’ve held up in their strongholds in by-elections but this could well be different.

    What’s the chances of them losing all councils in London?

  31. I’ve not really been able to understand the Labour PPB ‘The Uncredible Shrinking Man’ an attack on the Lib Dems when they were never a threat, and looking like they were haemorrhaging support on their own.

    Unless of course it’s a part of the campaign to ‘behead’ the Lib Dems by winning the Sheffield Hallam seat Clegg holds. It would certainly be difficult to hold onto the leadership were he to lose his seat.

    I don’t know if there is any polling for this seat which appears to have an interesting battle going on the only one on this site is: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sheffieldhallam/

    I did find this poll from 2011 out of date, but suggesting even then that Clegg would struggle to keep his job and was already lined up for a juicy EU Commissioners job:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100078903/britains-next-european-commissioner-nick-clegg/

    If anyone does know of a relevant poll for this constituency I’d be grateful.

  32. Thoughtful,

    I live and campaign actively in Hallam. Labour have strength in Crookes and Stannington, a decent vote in Ecclesall but Dore & Totley and Fulwood are such unbreakable bastions we’ll be very lucky indeed to take the seat.

  33. Lots of interesting info on another WoS poll, including:

    “Which of the following things do you think are LIKELY to happen in the next 10 years? (three Holyrood elections)”

    UKIP will have more seats at Westminster than the Liberal Democrats

    Yes: 43%
    No: 28%
    Don’t know: 29%

    The UK’s armed forces will be sent to fight in another foreign war

    Yes: 59%
    No: 12%
    Don’t know: 29%

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/stormy-weather/#more-55471

  34. @Statgeek

    Just the sort of questions to play to the Yes vote. They didn’t happen to ask a question about capital flight, did they?…

  35. CROSSOVER ALERT CROSSOVER ALERT

    @ChrisLane 1945

    “The LD figure looks a little low, IMO.”

  36. “Thanks for that, silly me. I was being side-tracked by the implosion of the Lib/dem VI.”

    ———-

    One wonders at the convos at LibDem HQ. “Sh!t, they didn’t buy the Greece thing.”
    “They didn’t buy the coalescence thing either!!”
    “Moderating the Tories? Nope, nuttin’.”

    Or maybe they just look at the limos and feel happy again…

  37. @Carfrew

    Nor did they ask about the oil. Should they have, or can we just enjoy some unusual poll questions?

  38. @Statty

    That’s a bit unkind of you Statty, I didn’t say you shouldn’t enjoy them, indeed, I enjoy them too!! This Wings over Scotland stuff is fun.

    And the oil is hardly a new issue, whereas capital flight and indeed the rise of ukip are more recent as issues.

  39. UKIP meeting gone belly-up again. Music band doing a runner. People accusing ITV reporter of being Romanian etc etc.

    UKIP candidate (a Robert Mugabe lookalike) chuntering on about anything and everything but getting nowhere.

    The Lib/dems in electoral meltdown.

    Ed Miliband got caught out in a regional radio interview when he was unable to identify his party’s leader on the local borough council and appeared not to know the authority was Conservative-led. Cringe where is the sofa?

    All we need is for the Greens to blow up a windmill to really put the icing on the cake.

    Who said European elections are boring?

  40. @Statty

    Are you saying there has never been polling on the oil? Otherwise, why bring it up? Anyways, is it bad to want a more balanced range of questions?

  41. Don’t forget inflation up, HTB wobbles and a solid third place for Cameron, and Natalie Bennett not being Caroline Lucas, and it’s been a bad day for all involved really.

    UKPR Comrades may find this piece on the decline of the SWP in the bourgeois media interesting reading. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/comrades-war-decline-and-fall-socialist-workers-party

  42. Statgeek

    Not sure it can be described as “another WoS poll” since the Rev says that he drafted some quick (and cheap!) questions to piggy-back on the ST poll.

    The ones on understanding of which Parliament covers what were interesting. Asking that usually reveals great confusion about which tier of government does what, so it was quite pleasing that around 75% correctly allocated the appropriate area to Holyrood/Westminster.

    Surprising that only 66% recognised education as being a Holyrood matter, and only a dreadful 47% that “the NHS” is too – though that may be a function of using that term in the question – respondents may have thought that the term referred to NHS England, since that’s the one run by Westminster.

  43. Why would Scots assume NHS referred to NHS England rather than NHS Scotland, particularly given the context of the question?

  44. “Surprising that only 66% recognised education as being a Holyrood matter, and only a dreadful 47% that “the NHS” is too…”

    ———-

    Why is that surprising?…

  45. RogerH

    Possibly because reporting in the media about “the NHS” is largely about England.

    Later in the poll, people were asked about how they saw the future of both services –

    “The NHS in England will become largely privatised
    Yes: 48%
    No: 23%
    Don’t know: 29%

    The NHS in Scotland will become largely privatised
    Yes: 18%
    No: 52%
    Don’t know: 30%”

    The answers to that do suggest an understanding that there are two separate services for each country.

  46. George Eaton tweets “New @ComResPolls marginals poll out at 10:30pm.”

  47. @OldNat

    I think you’re clutching at straws there. And that a third should think the Scottish education system is managed from London is pretty dire.

    The spin placed on the poll by WoS can be a bit desperate. For example only 57% think an independent Scotland will keep the pound but this is described as ‘nobody’s buying the Unionist line on this’. Well, apart from the 43% who apparently are.

  48. While all these polls and elections are great, and we will miss them afterwards, I am also secretly hoping for a rest after Sunday.

    At some point I may go to bed before midnight……not yet though….

  49. Looks like it turned out not to be a carnival either.

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