There is also a new Opinium poll out in this morning’s Daily Mail, with full details here on the Opinium website. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 31%, GRN 5%, BNP 3%. Labour and UKIP very close for first place, the Lib Dems equal with the Greens but on only 5%, which would probably lose them all their MEPs.
Turnout filter is those saying they are 5/10 likely to vote or higher. It’s unclear if this is Opinium’s final poll before the European election – the fieldwork was actually conducted at the tail end of last week.
UPDATE: Opinium didn’t include people at 5/10, it’s a bit more complicated than that: their final number includes people who are 9/10+ likely OR 7/10+ and voted the same way in 2009. Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov/Sun poll and an interesting ComRes poll at 10.30 (not Euros, something different…)