There is also a new Opinium poll out in this morning’s Daily Mail, with full details here on the Opinium website. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 31%, GRN 5%, BNP 3%. Labour and UKIP very close for first place, the Lib Dems equal with the Greens but on only 5%, which would probably lose them all their MEPs.

Turnout filter is those saying they are 5/10 likely to vote or higher. It’s unclear if this is Opinium’s final poll before the European election – the fieldwork was actually conducted at the tail end of last week.

UPDATE: Opinium didn’t include people at 5/10, it’s a bit more complicated than that: their final number includes people who are 9/10+ likely OR 7/10+ and voted the same way in 2009. Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov/Sun poll and an interesting ComRes poll at 10.30 (not Euros, something different…)


103 Responses to “Opinium European poll – CON 20, LAB 29, LD 5, UKIP 31, GRN 5”

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  1. “That 20% do is still pretty dire, of course (though one poster was surprised that I found it “surprising”).”

    ———–

    Well personally, I didn’t express a view. I didn’t even say I was surprised. I was just asking why you were surprised…

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  2. So the poll of marginals looks bad for both Labour and the Conservatives.

    Also,You Gov’s polls don’t look too far away

    It looks like the Lib Dems are squeezed to their core, so can the big boys grab some of the UKIP vote back?

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