We have another final European poll, this time from TNS. Their topline figures for European voting intention are CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%, OTHER 13% – much closer than their previous poll which had a nine point lead for UKIP. It’s based on only those certain to vote, but from a four-point verbal scale rather than a 0-10 scale, so it’s not as strict a filter.

In terms of polls still to come, there is certainly a YouGov final poll still in the works. ComRes and TNS have both published their final polls before voting. I don’t know if Survation, Populus, Opinium or ICM who have all polled on the European elections this cycle will produce any new figures before Thursday. MORI so far haven’t polled on the European election this cycle.


45 Responses to “TNS European poll – CON 21, LAB 28, LD 7, UKIP 31, Others 13”

  1. With changes since end of March:

    Con 21% (+3), Lab 28% (+1), LD 7% (-3), Ukip 31% (-5)

  2. Where are the Greens in this poll?

    I think a clear pattern is emerging of UKIP in the low thirties, Labour in a close second in the high twenties, Conservatives hovering around 21 and Lib Dems battling the Greens for fourth around the high single figures.

    I remain unsure how local elections will affect things or indeed if they will. If so it ought to benefit Labour since large cities and London electing their councils might bring out a few more of their voters.

    What has gone relatively unremarked is that this will very likely be the worst national election for the Conservatives ever.

  3. ComRes and TNS pretty consistent with each other. 20-27-7-33 vs 21-28-7-31. Question is, is the “certain to vote” filter (and do they prompt for UKIP?) giving accurate results, or does it lead to consistently inaccurate results.

  4. Opinium have published a poll in the Daily Mail today.

    It has UKIP 31%, Labour 29%, Conservative 20%, Lib Dems and Greens 5% each.

  5. I’ve being doing some number crunching this morning and estimate that in the Green vs Lib Dem battle, if the recent Euro polls are reasonably accurate, there is 59% chance the Lib Dems will come out winners, and a 41% chance the Greens will.

  6. @mrnameless

    Also relatively unremarked has been the recent repositioning (Michael Fallon tends to be consistently on message) ” …the party would be willing to campaign for UK withdrawal from the European Union if unable to secure membership reforms.”

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27456187

  7. @CatmanJeff

    Knew it was too good to be true…

  8. @Billy Bob

    I’m not sure that is really a change of positioning. That has been the policy all the way through, though they want to push the fact that they are confident that re-negotiation is doable and so that scenario won’t occur. Realistically they’ll be able to sell re-negotiation of some sort, I’m pretty certain of that. They won’t be campaigning to get out if polls are still favourable to in as they are at the moment.

    With all the variation I’m struggling to read too much into the Euro polls. I think we’ll just have to wait and see. My hunch is that LAB will come top and CON will do better than the turnout filtered polls are suggesting.

  9. @Jack

    “Realistically they’ll be able to sell re-negotiation of some sort, I’m pretty certain of that”

    Really? I’m pretty certain that no change at all will be possible.

  10. @Jack Sheldon – “Realistically they’ll be able to sell re-negotiation of some sort… ”

    To Conservative MPs as well? Some are quite committed to withrawl in any case, and may well be in negotiation with Ukip prior to the election.

  11. I wonder if Labour might not be very slowly but steadily coming up on the rails in these Euro elections. They’re now ahead in one or two polls and closing inon UKIP in the others. Only two days to go, I know, but I think it might well be a damned close thing between UKIP and Labour now. A week ago it looked only a question of how big UKIP would win.

    Nightmare scenario for the Tories unfolding? A bit of a mauling in the council elections and a third place in the Euros without the consolation of Labour coming second. If so, nervy, nervy times heading into the Newark by-election.

  12. Anthony – I’m just looking at the final month polls from 2009 and I’m wondering if there have been any significant methodological changes with any of the major pollsters? Looks like YouGov’s polls were pretty close to the final totals, but most of the other houses (notably ICM) had a shocker… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

  13. Personally, I think what happens in the UK on Sunday is a red herring.

    I’m far more interested in what happens across the EU. The centre-right and centre-left blocks are neck-and-neck, and whoever is first will probably get the Presidency of the European Commission. How strongly the Eurosceptic parties do will also matter – if they manage to defy the opinion polls are get more than 30% of the seats, there will surely be repercussions somehow.

  14. @Robin @Crossbat11

    I think that the Germans and Swedes are fairly keen on reform and crucially the extent of reform hasn’t been stated. Freedom of movement won’t change but I think the EU political process could be rationalised (get rid of Strasbourg, cut in number of MPs, reform of commission) and significant changes made to the Common Agricultural Policy. There is a recognition that Britain is in some senses a special case and I think the other member states will be willing to give way on a few issues to keep us in.

    The number of Tory MPs that want out is often over-stated. It consists of around 20-25 people… i.e. a very small part of the parliamentary party. Even most Eurosceptics would like to stay in following renegotiation.

  15. Number Cruncher – massive changes in methodology for everyone except YouGov (the ComRes, ICM and Populus polls in 2009 were all by telephone. While ICM did do a telephone Europe poll earlier in the campaign, all their recent European election polls have been online)

  16. CNS – Odd you should mention that: The Guardian saying what should have been said about a month ago:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/20/why-labour-more-important-ukip-in-the-european-election

  17. Broadly agree. The Eurosceptic vote across Europe will matter, but UKIP and Conservatives (for EFD and ECR respectively) will only make a small difference to that on their own. It’s really down to what happens elsewhere.

    However, if the opinions polls are correct, first place for number of seats is a knife-edge between EPP (centre-right) and PES (centre-left). It is quite possible that the extra few seats picked up by Labour might tip the balance for PES. Or the competion from UKIP and Conservatives might thwart it and EPP wins (which, IMO, is a better result for Cameron than most people think).

  18. My problem is that I keep singing George’s “Taxman” in my head but with the hook being:

    ” ;Cos I’m the Pressman, ye-eah I’m the Pressman”

    and making up words for the new song.

    Reminds me of when I used to play in bands for musicals and end up singing all the rotten songs in my head instead of sleeping.

  19. @ Rosie & D

    ” ;Cos I’m the Pressman, ye-eah I’m the Pressman”

    I can’t stop humming:

    Troll La Lee, Troll La La,
    Troll La Lee, Troll La . . . . Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!
    Troll La Lee, Troll La La , , , etc

    (Sung to the tune of the Happy Wanderer: posters too young to remember Children’s Favourites should be out having a good time, not geeking on here. My Favourites included: the Teddy Bears’ Picnic & The Laughing Hangman. & was there ever a sweeter sound than Big Burl Ives singing Candy Mountain?)

  20. If he’s a particular pressman or flame haired presswoman he might be posting at Her Majesty’s Pleasure before long.

  21. On polling, I wonder if ther will be any self-examination by polling companies after the results of the euros come out at the weekend?

    I would guess that YouGov will be near the mark. Some others might not be.

  22. @ R&D

    About time Gary Barlow did a cover version isn’t it? Maybe changing the words to “19 for you and one for me”.

    Bit like Morrissey’s lyrics “I bear more grudges than lonely high court judges” after he lost his Smiths case.

  23. Nice to set the world singing………

  24. Anthony Wells

    While ICM did do a telephone Europe poll earlier in the campaign, all their recent European election polls have been online)

    No, their Guardian one 9-11 May was telephone as well (it says CATI and everything):

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_may_guardian_poll.pdf

    It was also the only one to show a Conservative lead since whenever. So if it turns out to be the only one that is right, everyone may have to start dialling again.

  25. shevII

    not many people that I really dislike but “morrisey” is most of them.

  26. Roger – that was the one I was thinking of. Nine days ago suddenly seems such a long time!

  27. TNS tables aren’t available, though their press release is and will presumably be altered to put in the link when the tabs are finished:

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/ukip-european-poll-lead-narrows

    Although they use a different filter, there may be a similar problem with only including those who ‘definitely’ will vote rather than ‘probably’ as well.

    Last time TNS had a very low score for Green, in part because they didn’t list them as a main option in their questions.

  28. Also notable that “preferred not to say” have been excluded. Generally they are more likely to vote CON than LAB, though I guess its possible that UKIP candidates might also be in that category.

  29. * I meant to say UKIP voters, not candidates, of course.

  30. @R&D

    Oh dear me yes. Morrisey’s “wangst” is not for me, either.

    If he’d come out a bit sooner he wouldn’t have been so miserable then, though he’d probably have lost a few record sales. Haha.

  31. Anthony – Thanks

    One thing I think we can all agree on is that Sunday will be a very interesting night!

  32. Rosie&Daisie/Paulcroft

    The unthinkable has happened, we agree on something, can’t stand Morrisey either

  33. And with more polls suddenly appearing than on a London building site in 2004, we have the latest set of Welsh polls:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/aet66b4b3v/ITV%20Wales%20Results%20140514%20Welsh%20Political%20Barometer_website.pdf

    They give the full set, but the Euro figures are:

    Lab 33% (-6) {32}

    UKIP 23% (+5) {22}

    Con 16% (-1) {16}

    Plaid 15% (+3) {17}

    Lib Dem 7% (-) {7}

    Green 6% (+2) {5}

    BNP 0% (-2) {0}

    Other 1% (-) {0}

    Fieldwork dates 12-14 May, changes in () since previous poll (10-12 Feb). Figures in {} 10/10 certain to vote (55%).

    So UKIP and Green gaining at the expense of Labour (there are similar changes for the other VI questions). This would give 1 Lab and 1 UKIP MEP and the other two too close to call between Con, Plaid and a second Lab.

  34. @Jack: “Realistically they’ll be able to sell re-negotiation of some sort, I’m pretty certain of that”

    Like Wilson. We’ll probably never know, though.

  35. CB and MrN

    Whisper who dares, the Coalition might, just might, be heading into a Perfect Storm.
    If they are, then it will be very , very interesting to see how Pressie and his mates seek to drag them out of the Sh*t.

    Not even a year to go.

  36. From the latest polls it looks like the momentum has changed. UKIP seems to have peaked a week too early.

  37. I think, just maybe, that Ukip will split Con’s vote and Lab might take Newark.

  38. And the latest Opinium Euro poll details are here (click through for tables):

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/european-parliament-polling-13th-may

    Yes I know the date says last week but the f/w is actually 13-16 May)

    Conservative 20 -2

    Labour 29 +1

    Liberal Democrats 5 -2

    UKIP 31 +1

    Plaid Cymru 1 n/c

    Scottish National Party 4 n/c

    Green 5 n/c

    BNP 3 +1

    The filter appears to be an LTV=10 one, about 56%. They appear to have fixed some of their programming bugs (AIFE now appears properly rather than the BNP twice) but the BNP figure still looks high-ish (small panel size?)

  39. NICKP

    Not a chance, Cons have a huge majority there and while people are happy to vote UKIP in the Euros, in a bi election like Newark, tories will stay loyal.

    Lab voters on the other hand knowing they are extremely unlikely to win, may be more willing to vote UKIP to a) voice their disaproval/protest b) only real chance of beating Cons

  40. @NickP

    Might be worth a bet at 6-1. Can’t see UKIP taking it.

  41. There is no way the Cons will lose Newark.

    Lab need a 16% swing at a time the gov is enjoying a strong economic recovery and the polls are narrowing to Labour’s detriment.

    The results will be

    Con
    Lab
    Ukip
    Lib

    Maybe UKIP could challenge Lab for 2nd if they enjoy a halo effect after the Euros etc

  42. The government don’t appear to be enjoying anything except the likelihood of going from first to third in the Euros right after having lost hundreds of local councillors. Not a strong position to enter a by-election to replace a disgraced Tory MP.

  43. @Roger

    A government losing local councilors is like clock work it’s just something that happens. The Cons actually gaining councilors back in 2011 was a rare feat and not the general pattern.

    I think you’re being a little disingenuous if you say things aren’t going well for the Conservatives at the moment, economy is showing strong growth, Labour’s poll lead has nearly all evaporated and the poll of polls no longer shows a Labour majority.

  44. Couldn’t make it up dept.

    UKIP in Isleworth for the locals has put up three candidates who some say are Lab stooges. Their original candidate was kicked out of the party having distributed leaflets citing Old People and Breastfeeding as key issues and following that up by saying some people were intended by nature to be slaves.
    He is now (technically) standing as an independent and furiously leafletting –

    “As the leading member in UKIP’s Isleworth group – it’s fallen to me to put out the most literature, and to rely on my name to attract votes…
    “Please place me as your first choice, and choose two more from the other three UKIP candidates on offer.”

    Meanwhile the real(-ish) UKIP candidates are bleating that they haven’t had any leaflets delivered yet.

  45. If ole morrisey felt he just had to have a pretentious, single name then “tosser” would have been more succinct and accurate.