ComRes have released what they say is their final poll before the European elections on Thursday. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 33%, GRN 6%. The lead for UKIP is far more modest than the eleven points in their weekend poll, but is still pretty robust. The Conservatives remain in third place, the Lib Dems and Greens continue to battle for fourth place. Tabs here.

A lot of the apparent difference between different European polls is down to different treatment of turnout. ComRes have a very stark turnout filter, taking only those people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote. YouGov have a very liberal approach, including everyone who gives a voting intention (though they often tighten it up for final call polls); ICM weight by turnout, the effect of which is sort of a mid-way between the two extremes.

If you look at the tables, we can work out what the polls would have shown using different methods, letting us compare like-to-like. So, if all three pollsters who’ve reported in the last couple of days only took those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote the figures would be:

ComRes – CON 20%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 33%, GRN 6%
ICM – CON 21%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 29%, OTH 14%
YouGov – CON 21%, LAB 26%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 29%, GRN 10%

But if all three respondents included the answers of all respondents giving an intention to vote the figures would be:

ComRes – CON 21%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 27%, GRN 7%
ICM – CON 26%, LAB 29%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 24%, GRN 6%
YouGov – CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 26%, GRN 9%

As you can see, it doesn’t explain all the difference (ICM. for example, would have Labour leading even with a strict turnout filter), but it does reduce the contrasts a bit. A softer turnout filter tends to help Labour, a strict one tends to help UKIP.

UPDATE: Two more Westminster voting intention polls tonight – the monthly telephone ComRes poll for the Indy has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 14%(+2). The daily YouGov poll for the Sun meanwhile has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. YouGov’s Sun poll also asked European voting intention, with topline European figures of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 24%, GRN 12%.


149 Responses to “ComRes Final Euro poll – CON 20, LAB 27, LD 7, UKIP 33, GRN 6”

1 2 3
  1. It will be interesting to see how these euro surveys contrast with what happens on the day. One of the key factors that is not taken into account is the organisation and role of the parties in their Get Out The Vote work. These polls are all expressions of people in the comfort of their own home. UKIP does not have a party organisation to do the groundwork. So are these people extra-motivated? Or will their numbers fall back significantly against the established parties because of organisation? Let’s see.

  2. @Hal

    “What Miliband needs to energise the Labour supporters is some controversy that is attacked by the other side in order to differentiate Labour from the government clearly. The “Red Ed” variety of attack would do best.”

    I have some sympathy with this view and it might well work for him, much in the same way as it has for Farage recently. However, I think it needs to go beyond mere electoral and political tactics and Miliband needs to exude some genuine passion and fire in his belly. If he appears as some bland party manager and apparatchik, then the electorate, in their current disillusioned mood, will look elsewhere, but if he looks a bit more like an insurgent intent on breaking up the cosy Westminster consensus, then he might be surprised by the positive reaction he receives. The key will be what sort of insurgent he is and my advice would be a radical with a benign and philanthropic view of mankind. The polar opposite of the Farage’s of this world, if you like. Murdoch will do as Murdoch does, and Miliband shouldn’t be afraid of that. It may even become a convenient badge of honour.

    He could also learn from history and the tragedy that was Neil Kinnock’s political demise. I had/have huge respect for Kinnock and what he did to save Labour in the 80s, but David Hare’s superb play, The Absence of War, based on Kinnock’s doomed 1992 election campaign, provides salutary lessons for Labour. Here’s the summary of the play’s theme: –

    “The central character, party leader George Jones (Kinnock), is so smothered and constricted by his cautious advisers that eventually none of the great talents that brought him to prominence are visible to the public.”

    Salutary thoughts, indeed

  3. @Chris

    You’ve made a point completely different to the one I made!

    Most of the media have at some times made points similar to what UKIP are making – but come this election they have decided to forget all those in an effort to attack UKIP.

    The Daily Mail for instance carried eight separate articles concerning the crime levels they were exhibiting, it was so bad that even the Prime Minister of Romania admitted there was a problem with his countrymen committing crime.

    It doesn’t stop them emitting the fallacious accusation of racism – a word which certainly isn’t being used in any of its formal definition of someone who believes a member of a different race is inferior – especially as Romanians are the same race as us !

    Are you aware of the unholy pact between Conservative Central Office and the Guardian Newspaper ? Not normally allies.

    The Tory party has agreed to feed the Guardian news stories about UKIP on the understanding that the Guardian would not disclose the source.

    When the establishment comes together in this way, we should all be worried about the health of our democracy.

    (Source Peter Hitchens)

    As illustration perhaps you might like to tell me which of the mainstream media are supportive of UKIP ?

    @RogerH To be fair 1950 is quite a few decades ago, and it was post war.
    In economic terms there was a broad agreement on a Keynesian system, but it’s difficult to see agreement across the parties on the scale that there is today.

    The electorate are telling us that the three main parties ‘are all the same’, merely ignoring it because we don’t want it to be true is foolishness.

    In this last weeks run up to the election I expect to see the following headlines:

    Nigel Farage worships Satan
    Nigel Farage eats babies for breakfast
    Vote UKIP and expect volcanoes, earthquakes, dinosaurs walking the earth, etc etc

  4. Old Nat 12.03
    Yes….I could , quite correctly , have written “them(‘ll be counted on Sunday). ”
    But I didn’t. Thanks for pointing this out.

  5. “The Tory party has agreed to feed the Guardian news stories about UKIP on the understanding that the Guardian would not disclose the source.”

    Well that didn’t work, did it? And why would the Tory Party be able to provide stories about UKIP that a national newspaper with rather a lot of journalists couldn’t better find itself? Seems to be one of Hitchens’ dafter claims.

  6. @Thoughtful:
    You just made me think of this little tidbit from Spitting Image:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH2YWUqwLc4

    As to the 1950s, there was (if I am not mistaken) still a good bit of policy ground between Labour and the Tories. What is more important in some sense, however, is the perception of differences of opinion and/or views being accounted for in the main parties (or not). With that said, when there is a consensus among the population and the “elites” (in political science terms, at least) and those consensuses line up, things work well. When there is a consensus among those elites but it doesn’t get matched by the population at large, you get the present situation.

    ========================

    With the latest polls, it looks like the Greens are the latest recipients of a Euro election PR bump.

  7. @Thoughtful

    Just goes to show how devalued the term racism is. It’s become the equivalent of Soviet biology.

  8. I would have thought that suggesting Romanians are bad neighbours just because a few of them are involved in crime is pretty much the definition of racism.

    One of my work colleagues is Romanian and you could not meet a nicer guy. I wonder how his neighbours treat him?

  9. From AW link to tables..

    “Despite UKIP’s poll lead, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be considered “weird” by the British public. 31% of Britons think he is the leader that best fits the description, compared to 23% who say the same of Ed Miliband”
    _____

    I would had thought the results would be the other way round but either way a ¼ think the next potential PM is weird.

    I’m saying nothing…

  10. @ HAL

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312709/Romanian-crime-problem-Britain-admits-PM-Victor-Ponta.html

    Is Victor Ponta the Romanian PM a racist too? It’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Romanians are a separate race, and it illustrates my point that racism is a meaningless bully word.

    I do have my own definition for the word however. It means what ever the bully using it at that time wants it to mean for the purposes of silencing debate when a reasoned argument cannot be made !

    The real thing as it used to be is a pretty unpleasant way to think, but these days I have to say that I don’t know anyone who believes in some kind of racial superiority.

    @Wolf

    I would say any of the ‘isms’ and ‘phobias’ are more like a modern version of witchcraft.

    Imagine the Monty python ‘Holy Grail’ sketch “We have found a Witch may we burn her?” with the Witch substituted for Racist, and you come pretty close to the situation we find ourselves in today.

  11. thoughtful

    So you think we should be worried if a Romanian family moves in next door?

    Hogwash.

  12. I think nothing could enliven UKPR more than UKIP voters lecturing us on what racism is.

    Fortunately, I think the British voter is able to spot a bigot without all the helpful advice so many people are keen to give them.

  13. I think the problem some people have with Eastern European neighbours is the same problem they have with students and that’s multiple occupation.

    People coming and going at all times of the day/night and up to five people living in a 2 bed flat.

    It is a problem.

  14. Inflation up just two days before the elections. Will this have an effect?

  15. Norbold,

    I’d doubt it. Probably won’t filter through much in the last couple of daus and when the Coalition are polling at the heady heights of 27-29% I’d argue they probably won’t lose much more.

  16. @HAL

    Exactly I wouldn’t want race X living next to me – racist
    I wouldn’t want a bunch of criminals living next to me – reasonable

  17. I am excited about Thursday – real votes woohooo. It is like Christmas I am counting the days.

  18. MrNameless (wink wink)

    I wasn’t thinking so much of Coalition votes dropping as maybe firming up some Labour votes.

  19. Thoughtful

    “Perhaps you might like to explain the problems between the Pakistani Muslim community in Sheffield and the influx of Romanians ? Can’t call them racist can you ?”

    Maybe we could if you’d provided a link that showed Pakistani Muslims were being racist, but the link you’ve provided shows nothing of the sort.

  20. Can we please not get into a discussion about what is racist and what isn’t. I doubt it will end well or enlighten anyone.

  21. “In this last weeks run up to the election I expect to see the following headlines:

    Nigel Farage worships Satan
    Nigel Farage eats babies for breakfast
    Vote UKIP and expect volcanoes, earthquakes, dinosaurs walking the earth, etc etc ”

    Mmmm… that doesn’t sound “thoughtful” in the sense I normally understand. But I suppose daft thoughts count as well.

    This whole conversation is daft though isn’t it.

  22. Anthony

    I assume the bold type was you shouting.

    Our posts went out at the same time but I think mine was saying the same thing differently.

  23. Scrutiny of polls (including a Yougov poll) on WoS:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/bending-truth-until-it-breaks/

    @AW

    Thoughts? Are WoS being fair / not fair / missing anything?

  24. Statistics show that a greater percentage of black people are convicted of crime than for the population as a whole. Yet treating all black people as criminals is racist. This is exactly the mess we were in in the 1980s, riots, the Scarman report, the treatment of the Lawrence family etc etc. Nobody wants to go back to those days… I hope.

  25. pressman

    If you wish to persist in your

    “Oooo, wait until the press start saying nasty thing about Ed M” line,

    then I must point out that it hasn’t worked before, for example in the public’s general reaction to the appalling slurs on his father and the way he hit back.

    The same will happen again. I am being quite objective when I say that I don’t believe there is anything about Miliband that should frighten people – in fact the opposite.

    Any attempt to manufacture stuff will be met head on.

    You mention the Tories rise to 35% [hardly a fixed figure as though they were gradually ascending a mountain with great skill] as a sign of progress.

    As I have said before, I think that is close to their top VI and real polls seem to support that contention.

  26. @Hal

    Write 1000 lines: Correlation is not causation.

  27. @RogerH,

    That was my point.

  28. Whoops, missed AW’s post in bold. End of discussion.

  29. By the way, I wish people who accuse our country of being a “one-party State” would bugger off to Russia or Iran and use the internet there to send back in depth reports of how much better things are in proper democracies.

  30. Even my two cats agree with you there R&D!

  31. @Statgeek

    “Thoughts? Are WoS being fair / not fair / missing anything?”

    Not sure about any of those, but I think they’re being a bit defensive. Polls are what they are but their interpretation and (mis)reporting is out of the hands of the pollsters themselves. Interested parties, like politicians and newspaper owners will have their own agendas and (mis)use polling data accordingly. I suspect both sides in the Scottish Referendum campaign are up to these tricks. What looks indisputable to me, though, is that the No/Better Together side is ahead reasonably comfortably, as indeed they have been for some time. This suggests that, barring a fairly seismic event, they will prevail.

    In that sense, the WoS article came across as a bit of a despairing and petulant claim of foul play. “They’re cheating, ref!” Not something potential winners tend to say, either in sport or politics.

  32. @Hal

    “Statistics show that a greater percentage of black people are convicted of crime than for the population as a whole”

    They also show that black people are more likely to be victims of crime. And they are more likely to live in deprived areas where crime is more common. And are more likely to get diabetes. And to win national world and Olympic sprint titles.

  33. @R&D

    Benedict Brogan accidentally wrote a good piece this morning about how good it is to be alive in the UK in the 21st century.

    Now, obviously it’s especially good if, like Brogan, you’re a white, middle-class man who has acquired an excellent living for very little effort, but actually, it’s an awful lot better than the large majority of the alternatives for most of us.

    I think that’s what gets my goat the most – it’s the people who demand that I should dislike this tolerant, free, diverse nation.

  34. @MrNameless

    “I thought you were a Liberal, Tony?”

    Quick summary just for info.
    1971-1974 I was a YC (largley due to my parents’ influence)
    1974-2010 I was indeed a Liberal – infact once I discovered my own views I was definitely on the far Left of the party
    2010 – seeking a political home, but tending towards Miliband.

  35. norbold

    you have sensible moggies

    chris

    “I think that’s what gets my goat the most – it’s the people who demand that I should dislike this tolerant, free, diverse nation.”

    Brilliant – and so many things one could add. One of which [funnily] is self-deprecation.

    I am so content to be living in our country and whilst we should always be critical [which we are] we need to criticise objectively and intelligently not, for example, claim that we live in a PC world gone mad where we want to burn anyone who shows minimal racist tendencies at the stake.

    We have plenty of rivers to stick to the ole ducking system which was firm but fair and successfully eradicated witches.

  36. I’m not sure how hard the Right Wing press can go after Farage/UKIP come the election.

    They have the readership to think about and sales (even if this equates to online clicks). Plus of course the things you could criticise Farage for most in papers like the Guardian are not the things that especially bother the readership of the Daily Mail. They have let the genie out of the bottle and difficult to get it back in.

  37. @CB11

    “Not sure about any of those, but I think they’re being a bit defensive.”

    Well I did ask about ‘those’ (fair / unfair / missed anything). Whether they are or are not defensive is subjective. If the scrutiny is above board, we can rely on WoS a little more for being honest with regards polling scrutiny.

  38. RnD and others

    Was your rejoinder to Pressman generic, cos I don’t have a piece by him on this thread.

    Maybe AW has took him down ? (Thinks)

  39. Pressman post @ 7:02 a.m., Ewen.

  40. As I’ve said, the next 12 months will see the most brutal mauling of a party leader ever seen in the UK in the run up to an election, whilst there is also a ton in the locker about prospective UKIP candidates and it is this that forms the second part of the strategy.

    We will be exposing these candidates along with saying to our readership, look we know there is frustration, but look at the giant strides being made in the economy and hey, Farage can’t win but Miliband can. Do you really want Labour back in just five years after they left our finances in ruins ?

  41. is there an “ignore” button somewhere ?

    [It’s an inbuilt function for most of us, we can quietly do it without commenting…]

  42. Top spamming there, Pressman…

  43. Yawnnn, time to go back to bed.

  44. @POSTAGEINCLUDED

    “But…. I suspect that the LDs overestimated the number of migrants settled on their political patch, and underestimated the number who thought of themselves as just on an extended, but still temporary, visit.”

    ———-

    True… It’s also possible they thought people might buy the coalscence thing, or that Grecian gambit, or that an AV referendum was moderating Tories etc.

    I’m wondering about whether Greens return to Lab or not…

  45. Pressman around again so I am logging off.

  46. @BILL PATRICK

    “A move of the Tories to the centre would certainly make Miliband’s plans for realignment difficult. It’s much easier to shift the centre when your opposition doesn’t hold it, e.g. Labour in the 1980s or the Tories in 1994-2007.

    It’s quite the conundrum for the Tories, I think: carrying on the Cameroonian project opens up the centre ground for them, but alienates Blue Kippers; attracting Blue Kippers with tough talk on immigration and muscular Christian talk alienates those younger voters like me (who might have even been young Tories in a different era) who could be attracted by a more cosmopolitan Tory party”

    May 19th, 2014 at 4:31 pm

    ————–

    Well there’s the thing. It rather depends on where the centre is. If you define it in terms of being where the majority of the electorate are, is Miliband moving away from the centre with things like rent controls, cost-of-living, talk of nationalising railways etc., or towards it? ‘Cos polling seems to show even a fair few Tories seem in favour.

    Tories may be moving towards the centre on gay marriage etc., but Labour were there already on such issues, and as you say, Tories moving to the centre on the socially liberal alienates some of their vote.

    Because the left vote was split, requiring a move to the right economically to get elected in certain marginals under fptp, some have tended to assume this meant the electorate had moved to the right a lot economically, when in fact, they are rather more into nationalising utilities etc. than Labour!!

  47. And it isn’t necessarily the case Blair/Brown had to move as far to the right economically to get elected as they did.

    Worth noting also, back in the late seventies, people may have been bothered about unions, but I don’t know that there was a clamour over gas and electric, or millions on the street protesting to end the split between investment and retail banking…

  48. @Bill P pt3

    Main reason Lab are no longer polling 40-plus percent is that they, along with Tories and LDs, are possibly no longer precisely at the centre when it comes to immigration…

  49. New thread

1 2 3