This morning’s online Populus poll was the third to show a Tory lead after the Ashcroft and ICM polls last week. Topline figures were LAB 34%, CON 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here

Ashcroft’s own poll – the second of his new weekly series – shows Labour back in front. His topline figures are CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Until we get some more of Ashcroft’s polls under our belt it’s hard to judge the trend – was last week’s just a rogue, this a return to normality, or vice-versa, or a shift to Labour. I don’t know, we need to give it some time and see how it compares to figures produced by other companies. Tabs are here.

59 Responses to “New Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. @ Rogermexico

    Your figure of 48% in brackets- was that 48% of respondents or 48% of the respondents who gave a voting preference?

    If the former that would seem fair enough especially given a lot of those 10/10 probably have literally voted.

    Also wondered whether the weather will play a part on Thursday. I think bad weather has always tended to favour the right wing and good weather the left wing or is this an old wives tale? I assume postal votes are more predominant among older voters so that situation could get more pronounced as they are UKIP and Tories best age range.

  2. @Howard,

    Depends what you mean by “making it”. I was defining it as “largest party” (ie a “Tory Win”, rather than “Prime Minister is David Cameron” outcome).

    If they were 5 points ahead at this point, a “win” would be all but guaranteed.

  3. Mrs Minty re your q to marco.

    My own answer is the simple fact that they have a low top, as I wrote earlier.

    They don’t lose a lot of VI but they don’t add to it either.

    What other reason can there be?

  4. “Thank you Anthony and I promise not to mention my next book, “Pie ‘n’ Mash and Prefabs”, again…”

    I shall not mention my next new novel – “Taffy Troll Takes a Leek” – either

  5. Shevii

    Your figure of 48% in brackets- was that 48% of respondents or 48% of the respondents who gave a voting preference?

    All respondents, including those who would prefer not to say or didn’t know how likely they were to vote. Of that 48% only about 4% don’t seem to have then expressed a VI.

    I’ve just had another look back at the nearest equivalent poll in 2011 about a week before the AV Referendum:

    YouGov panelists gave to following LTV percentages:

    10 62%

    9-10 70%

    8-10 75%

    7-10 80%

    In the end 79% of panelists reported they had voted. So clearly LTV=10 would have missed a lot of people who did vote.

  6. Neil A
    My percentages referred to May 2015 of course. If we look at 2010, which should have been a high point for Con and LD, – it was for LD, but was not for Con, obviously. To reach the percentage I quoted earlier (40 35 10), we have to envisage a six pointer from LD 2010 to Lab net, (already achieved) and a seven pointer from LD 2010 to Con, net.

    (the rest, UKIP and Green, etc, is just ‘noise’ under FPTP).

    7% from LD 2010 to Con, net? We are fantasising somewhat surely? Note, I am ignoring Con to Lab and thus am ignoring those shifts in the marginals, where it counts.

  7. Neil A
    Sorry 4% from LD to Con, (the other 3% to others).

  8. New thread.

  9. The more I see polls (from all quarters) the more convinced I am of a Labour GE majority. Whatever the merits of a 35% strategy, Conservatives are well short of % in the high 30’s to give them any semblance of a majority; I predict Lib Dems will do well to restrict their losses to a third. I think all demographics point towards Labour; my analysis isn’t scientific or tribally hopeful but based on a sense that the fear and the polarisation that’s part of the May 2014 rhetoric has no traction or momentum to seriously influence 2015. There are a lot of English folk falling out with each other – I thought this year was about preserving the Union, emphasising the Great in GB and looking forward not back. A lot of the coverage I see centres on 30-60 yr white angst and fear. There are a lot of hopeful voters who are not in that bracket. Romney apparently looked set to make POTUS 2012 a competitive contest – the final analysis showed the demographic he relied on to get him there only got him 80% of the way and he too went doom laden and divisive in his message. He and GOP had no other weighty constituency or broader appeal to make it over the line. Sense and tolerance will prevail.

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