The monthly ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. Topline voting figures are CON 29%(nc), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(-1), Others 11%. A slight reduction in the Labour lead since a month ago, but still a comfortable lead.

For the European elections voting intentions are CON 20%(-2), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 35%(+1), GRN 7%(+2). This would give UKIP a very comfortable victory indeed next week, and see the Liberal Democrats pushed to fifth place (and on a uniform swing they’d probably lose all their MEPs).

With five days to go until the European elections we’re obviously heading into final call territory, but my understanding is that ComRes have probably got another poll still to come before Thursday’s election. European election polls so far are here.

The Sunday Telegraph also has a new European election due tonight, in this case from ICM, and there is due to be an ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday too, as well as the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll. I will update later…

UPDATE: And the ICM European poll is also out. Their topline figures are CON 26%(+4), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 25%(-2). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph last month (ICM did a more recent European poll for the Guardian last weekend, but that was by telephone rather than online). In contrast to the ComRes poll ICM have Labour ahead and the Conservatives and UKIP in a close race for second place.

UPDATE2: I expect some readers will be hoping for some explanation for the gap between these polls. I’m afraid I don’t have a simple one to offer. Some of it might be down to ComRes using a very strict turnout filter, taking only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, something which has tended to help UKIP. ICM’s tables aren’t yet available, so I don’t know for sure what they’ve done with turnout, but if their last online Euro poll is any guide they weighted by turnout (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are counted in full, people who say they are 9/10 certain to vote are counted as only 0.9 of a vote, and so on down). That would still help UKIP, but not as much as a strict 10/10 only policy. However, that really can’t explain the whole of a ten point difference in UKIP support.


125 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 29, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 19”

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  1. Andy JS

    It will be interesting to see if UKIP’s “stupendous momentum” lasts until polling day or recedes as “Cleggmania” did in 2010.

  2. UKIP supporters tend to give the impression of being converts rather than mere voters.

  3. DrunkenScouser

    While UKIP would certainly be on my list of “most disliked” parties, it is perfectly obvious that they are popular with a large number of people in England.

    It also seems likely that if “Labour are the least unpopular party”, then they were singularly inept in opposing AV. A centrist party – veering leftwards or rightwards as the mood of the population takes them – would be odds on to win in an AV (vote for candidates in the order that you least hate them) election.

  4. @Pete B

    I’m a bit mystified (probably GKC’s intention) by that quote… he does seem to contradict himself in that poem though:

    “And a few men talked of freedom, while England talked of ale.”

    On the subject of taking on the European superpower at Trafalgar:

    “We did and died like lions, to keep ourselves in chains”

  5. RogerH

    “UKIP supporters tend to give the impression of being converts rather than mere voters.”

    I’ll take your word for that. Despite having been round many doors in the last few months, I’ve never met one.

  6. @ OldNat

    I thought Ed Miliband was in favour of AV?

  7. Old Nat

    Hmmm. I don’t live in Westminster. I live in Wales. I think AW is always warning about the danger of believing cross breaks, and I stick to my view – which is based on a lot more than opinion polls – about the unique importance of London socially, economically and politically to all of us in UK. That’s IMO of course, but I have a feeling most people would agree with that in their heads even if their hearts give them competing loyalties.

  8. Epiphron

    He was? But most Lab MPs were reportedly against AV, and my comment was about the Labour Party, not its new leader.

  9. @Billy Bob
    Possibly this site isn’t the right place for the deconstruction of English poetry, but I think Chesterton was trying to say that ‘we’ (the English – sorry OldNat), have been used by the ruling classes to fight wars etc and have done so because of patriotism, but were really more interested in beer. Also, woe betide those who take this bovine attitude for granted.

    “We hear men speaking for us of new laws strong and sweet, Yet is there no man speaketh as we speak in the street.
    It may be we shall rise the last as Frenchmen rose the first,
    Our wrath come after Russia’s wrath and our wrath be the worst.”

    It’s just that UKIP’s rise reminded me of that poem. Labour and the Tories are hoping that UKIP support will melt away at the GE. Perhaps it will. Perhaps it won’t.

  10. “I’ll take your word for that. Despite having been round many doors in the last few months, I’ve never met one.”

    Why would you take my word then?

  11. Welsh Borderer

    I didn’t imagine that you lived in Westminster – though you might just conceivably have been one of those who commute to London over ridiculous distances.

    You answered my question as to why you thought London elections were the most important in the UK, for which, due thanks.

    I note your opinion and, as I said previously, the basis for your opinion was made transparently clear.

    Your “feeling” of course for what other people think is just yours, and your emotional response is just as valuable as that of any other individual.

  12. @Welsh Borderer – “Londoners are nowadays the most diverse, creative, outward-looking, global and non – nationalist section of the electorate. The continued prosperity of all parts of the UK depend on London whose GDP added value per head is well above everywhere else.”

    On a personal note, it’s nice to see someone sticking up for London for once. It often feels as though we in London strive so hard but receive no appreciation at all, and we’re too bashful to stick up for our contribution.

  13. @Pete B

    You don’t think there is an attempt to dupe us again into fighting against the social chapter/human rights etc?

  14. RogerH

    It is courtesy, on this site, to assume that other posters are not dissimulating when they post.

    It is also quite normal to use phrases like “I’ll take your word for it” in a somewhat unconvinced tone – rather like the double positive “Aye Right” in Scots or the US “Yeah, Right” sense.

    Of course, those usages may be Scotticisms or Americanisms, not used in your variation of English. In which case your confusion is understandable

  15. @DrunkenScouser – I think the worst thing about that poor Political Betting article is its assumption that UKIP could hoover up the votes of the BNP and English Democrats “/before/ UKIP’s advance these last two years” (my emphasis). Uniting the far right has been a significant factor in UKIP’s advance, and cannot be double-counted like that.

  16. Maybe UKIP have peaked? Farage has made a lot of gaffs in the last few days (LBC, Romania, allowances etc). However postal votes are in, so they would not be affected – I still think it will be Labour/UKIP battle for first. Labour should have made ground but did not (better get my last leaflets out then)

    Intersting to speculate what would happen if UKIP do end up 3rd as per this one-off poll

  17. Sorry shold have specified the latest ICM poll showing UKIP 3rd. I doubt it though

  18. I thought UKIP had peaked after last year’s locals. And yet…

  19. Billy Bob
    What I think is irrelevant. I don’t suppose many voters are even aware of the social chapter/human rights etc, except when there are examples of undesirables who can’t be deported because they have a cat and suchlike.

  20. Time to dust off the old divining stick …..the toad is giving me the eye….I may need a tongue teaser from the newt for the spell but ?…You Gov may spare them both….

  21. Farage says ‘you wouldn’t want a bunch if Romanians moving next door’. Years ago I did psychology and a test of racism was would you be happy if race X moved to your town, street, next door…married your son/daughter. The sooner you said you wouldn’t be happy the more racist you were judged to be.

    It suprised me that Farage can say what he does and still wrack up opinion poll leads. I can only conclude that the UKIP voters agree with him and don’t want Romanians living next door – which if you think about it is incredibly racist.

  22. @Couper2802 – The conventional narrative is “A third of Brits are voting for UKIP despite UKIP being somewhat racist”. I wonder at what point we have to accept that instead “A third of Brits are voting for UKIP *because* UKIP are somewhat racist”.

    I would love to see some wide-scale unorthodox research, such as Implicit Association Testing, examining social attitudes among political partisans; the existing literature is very limited. With the advent of the internet we now have the technology to do this kind of research, and it would be nice to see some carried out.

  23. This latest Comres poll is more or less in line with all of the other post-earthquake polls, showing Labour leading by 3-4% but with both the main parties performing abominably.

    There is a worrying slow drift downwards for Labour, but how anybody looking at these polls can say with a straight face that they aren’t anything other than utterly atrocious for the governing parties, particularly the Tories, is completely beyond me.

    I mean, 29% for pity’s sake???

  24. Drunken Scouser

    Speaking as a Doncastrian, I’m assuming that yer man who wrote that PB piece has never set foot in God’s finest town. If he had, and if he had spoken to any more than a slack handful of locals, he’d soon have found out what their opinion of Davies is.

    Yes he won the mayoral election. He did so on a tiny turnout, winning well under 10% of the available first preference votes. The idea that he would beat Milliband in a Westminster Election on a 60-70% turnout is ludicrous. But I’d be delighted to see him try.

  25. SoS/ICM indyref poll

    Excluding DK, (April figs in brackets) – Yes 42% (48%) : No 58% (52%)

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-yes-vote-at-8-month-low-1-3414582

    No mention in the article of the methodology change signalled by ICM, so we need to see whether the headline figures are comparing like for like.

    Even so, not a good poll for my side of the constitutional debate!

  26. Normally one of the two main parties polling under 30% would probably mean alarm bells ringing for that party at this point in the electoral cycle. It just that we are in strange times electorally (I think this is generally accepted hereabouts), akin to the situation just after WWI during which Labour first came to prominence and won substantial support. A 4% lead isn’t that remarkable in itself, even considering other recent smaller leads.

    6% is pretty brutal for the LD’s. Our version of PR is very unhelpful to small parties (and in this election, the LD’s should be classed as such). Very near to the 5% entry level that some countries use: although we don’t do this, it seems it might happen by default.

    For people who are interested in the EU elections beyond the UK, in Ireland it seems Sinn Fein are still polling strongly – maybe topping the poll in the Dublin constituency (current polling there indicates the next GE in 2016 will be very messy, with whoever is the largest party struggling to find someone(s) they can both work with and with enough seats).

    According to a recent Reuters article, the EPP and S&D will very closely matched in seat numbers, and around a quarter of EU parliament seats will be won by anti-EU and protest parties. This would not be a huge surprise in the circumstances.

  27. @Crossbat11

    I think that as the current polls suggest that no party can command the support of no more than 23% of the total electorate (assuming a 65% turnout), the whole political establishment should be worried.

    Today I was canvassing for the Greens in one of the poorest council estates in the area, and the feedback was atrocious. The best I got was apathy. I got a lot of people were really angry, wanting to vote BNP.

    People were not anti Green specifically, they were anti the whole political apparatus as they saw it.

    Some how politics has left a lot of people behind, and they are not happy about it.

    Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems especially need to really think about how they have screwed it up so bad.

  28. To clarify:

    Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems – the main parties – need to really think about how they have screwed it up so bad.

  29. Only Nigel Farage can turn the indyref vote around for Alex Salmond now. If UKIP do as well as the Mirror poll suggests (but not in Scotland) then there might be a renewed Yes trend. Otherwise, I suspect it’s Game Over.

  30. KeithP

    This is the Reuters analysis you were referring to.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/uk-eu-election-poll-idUKKBN0DU0Z920140514

  31. @OldNat

    The previous poll had the highest Yes recorded so not too suprising this reversal plus the methodology change may favour No.

    I do not understand how the referendum polls work. I did ask AW but he didn’t answer my point. The pollsters do not weigh on past vote, they only weigh to match the population. First I would have though past vote would be more accurate and second if they are weighing by general population then they should apply a turnout model as in the US, as not all groups will turnout in the same proportions. They don’t seem to do that either

  32. Naw campaign being boosted by the popularity of UKIP and the fall in the probability of a Labour government?

  33. @Catmanjeff,

    Replace “canvassing for the Greens” with “canvassing for Labour” and your comment would be my view exactly expressed.

    After canvassing in Broomhill, a ward full of students, abandoned houses and seemingly aimless people, I then went (unrelated to politics but for journalistic reasons) to the Park Hill flats by Sheffield station. I spoke to a group of people who constituted some of the last eight people still living there. They summed up what had happened and how their whole community – it was like a whole village according to them – had disappeared, and one of their children told me most people were crying when they were made to leave so the properties could be redeveloped for private tenants.

    One woman had her children show me round their flat – a tiny affair with little in the way of scenery and hardly room to move, but which she still nostalgically described as the “best flats ever”. I walked around afterwards and experienced one of the most haunting and depressing environments I’ve ever seen.

    They are illustrative a constituency of people in Britain who feel they have no place. They belong to no community or the community they did have has disappeared. They find it hard to get employment that’s secure, or pay their rent, or buy new clothes for their children, let alone get even an HTB-subsidised mortgage. For them, arguments about whether Nigel Farage differs between Romanians and Germans are irrelevant while their own lives feel precarious.

    All politicians of all stripes have serious questions to answer about why people like that are in this situation, and what they can do to help. Until they can answer those questions and demonstrate their answers in practice, it will not surprise me that populists keep having their day.

    If people are racist or prejudiced, it’s because nothing has been done to repair the decaying ground in which the roots of prejudice take hold.

  34. Couper2802

    They all have different methodologies in one way or another. Most weigh on recalled vote in 2011 as well as usual demographics.

    Some headline figures are based on all respondents, some are estimated turnout weighted, some are likelihood to vote determined.

    At least a couple of pollsters have said that none of them “know” how to measure opinion in this kind of referendum.

    One or more , or none, of them may have stumbled on how to “get it right”. I stick to working on the basis of the trend in the polling average, rather than any one pollster. The “truth” may lie somewhere around that figure – or it may not!

    Even comparing one poll from the previous one from the same pollster is fraught with uncertainty, as methodological changes frequently occur.

    In my more cynical moments, I suspect that the pollsters are using the indyref campaign to sharpen their methodologies for the more renumerative EU In/Out referendum.

  35. @Mr Nameless

    Interesting.

    Are those the flats on the hill opposite the Railway Station?

    I agree with the despair. Today has really emotionally drained me. I can’t imagine a child brought up in that environment can possibly get out of the handicap of their background.

    My own background is from a very ordinary working class one. My Dad was lorry driver and my Mum worked part time in a Fish and Chip shop. We were never well off to any degree, but I can’t remember the lack of hope or demoralising environment witnessed in many communities.

  36. Mr Nameless

    Now that post was investigative/campaigning journalism as it should be!

    Congratulations.

  37. Mr N

    Very well written. I read an article about the Park Hill Flats from I think maybe the Independent online, and it was unbelievable. Me Dads side are all from Shef, and their views on PH are engrossing.

    Also, I think you may have knocked on the door of one of my friends the other day – she said she spoke to a Journalist student campaigning for Labour :-)

    Cup Final was a little hard to watch as a Sheff Utd fan – what might have been, and all that. One of the camerashots showed a couple of Hull fans who I drunk with before the semi final, and it made me damn (for not the first time), the double ricochet in our box that resulted in their second equaliser, just after half time.

    Thought Arse did well to subdue Huddlestone, who demonised us in the second half last month.

  38. @Catmanjeff,

    They are indeed. Brilliant view from up there if nothing else.

    I’ve always considered myself on the lowest rungs of the middle class, in that grey area where I’m poorer than some working class people but with the cultural capital of having a teacher and a painter for parents.

    We’ve never really had much money, but we have a decent sized home in a fairly nice area, a mortgage, a garden, a second hand piano and a cat. Today reminded me there’s a lot further we could fall, and I feel very lucky.

  39. We were never well off to any degree, but I can’t remember the lack of hope or demoralising environment witnessed in many communities.
    ————–
    I can; I can remember very well the rows of skinny, ashen faced homeless kids wrapped in thin, frayed sleeping bags & blankets trying to snatch some shelter in the alley beside Edinburgh bus station. London, Manchester & Glasgow all had similar youth unemployment & homelessness.

    I remember my two younger brothers joining the army because there was nothing else available to them in Perth, Glasgow, Edinburgh or London despite their best efforts. It was bleak for ordinary working class kids & I will never forget it.

  40. Jack R,

    Good to hear I might’ve bothered one of your friends (I don’t know any other Labour Journalism Students) – which ward does she live in?

  41. @Mr Nameless Catmanjef

    When those in power want to use their power to advance their own agenda against the interests of the powerless, they need a scapegoat so that powerless don’t rise up and turn on them.

    UKIP has provided such a scapegoat, the Immigrant, the Romanian; ‘they are to blame for the problems of the poor’ but it was not the Romanian that caused the recession but greedy bankers, it is not the Immigrant privatising the NHS, it was not the Romanian that sold off the council houses. UKIP and Farage are necessary to the ‘Westminister Elite’. Maybe that is why Farage is such a darling of the establishment.

    At least the pair of you are not sitting by and letting it happen but are out campaigning for a fairer society.

  42. OldNat

    Stop mithering Welsh Borderer. As it happens the London local elections are the most important local elections taking place next week for a variety of reasons:

    (i) They are the main full council elections[1] so more dramatic changes may takes place in terms of control etc.

    (ii) They are the last round of the post-2010 LA cycle, so they will give us more information about for example where the Lib Dem vote has collapsed or held up – everywhere outside London has already has at least one round of elections to give us data.

    (iii) London has more marginal seats than other region and these results will give us some indication as to how they will go, which in turn will give us an idea about 2015

    (iv) Like it or not the media are ever-more obsessed with London as being the only place that matters. A swarm of bees will make the national press if it’s within a mile of Westminster. So coverage will be more intense than for similar elections elsewhere.

    It’s also worth pointing out that you need to distinguish between ‘London’ the mental straitjacket of the metropolitan ‘elite’ and the actual city of 8 million people where these people reside at least part of the time.

    [1] Apart from the odd place following rewards (Milton Keynes, Slough), only the new Northern Ireland LAs are being fully elected and they tend not be as powerful.

  43. @KeithP

    The best poll collator in the Anglospere on EP matters is Simon Hix. His latest predictions are here:

    http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/pollsblog

  44. @Mr Nameless
    That is a very eloquent post.

    @Couper
    Yours too.

  45. Mr nameless [why you don’t just post using your first name I don’t know given open you are…]

    ….. but anyway, a very moving post.

    One problem I find is the “uniform”. By which I mean that ever since the disgraceful “Donkey Jacket at the Cenotaph” all politicians feel that not only must they wear suits and ties but that those must scream “This suit was bloody expensive.”

    It may seem trivial but that is not how most people dress and it makes them look somehow elitist. Its a metaphor for everything else that is screwed up with the system.

    paul

  46. oldnat @ welsh borderer

    “Your “feeling” of course for what other people think is just yours, and your emotional response is just as valuable as that of any other individual.”

    Bloody hell, you’re a pompous bugger. Have you really nothing better to write about?

  47. @RosieandDaisie

    “oldnat @ welsh borderer
    “Your “feeling” of course for what other people think is just yours, and your emotional response is just as valuable as that of any other individual.”
    Bloody hell, you’re a pompous bugger. Have you really nothing better to write about?”

    Like his Pets like some people do…

  48. Two broad thoughts:
    (1) It is interesting seeing a divergence in the polling narrative over the last week or so. From what I can tell, almost all the polls more or less showed a steady march towards UKIP…only for a MASSIVE divergence to appear in the last bit, with a few polls showing shattering leads for UKIP and others showing the lead reversing. Like Anthony, I can’t figure the reason for it…the “certain to vote” filter probably should not be generating a variation this large. Moreover, it isn’t just one poll…
    -One thing, on surveying a set of polls, is that ICM seems to transfer about 5% off of UKIP to the Tories…their Tory performance is abnormally high as well as UKIP being low.
    -Another thought: It may be worth considering the margin of error in these polls to be a bit higher than normal due to the degree to which votes are fractured.

    (2) On UKIP, I think there is something to be said for them having managed to sweep up the “far right” under one banner, but this is happening in France as well (with the National Front). However, I don’t see this so much as a spike in racism as much as a major break in the existing political order. It is not “protest voting” in the sense that people are trying to blow the “establishment” a raspberry…they do want some real change in the establishment.

    Though people aren’t going to say it outright or get into the details of it, there are a lot of issues where a consensus has emerged, or is percieved to have emerged, among the “main” parties. Immigration is one, gay marriage is another. While there may be clear majority positions on these issues, you do have a large minority that isn’t on board…and they’re going to jump to the most viable force for opposing these changes.

    The problem is that in a number of countries, the “frustrated voter” block, including people with one or more “unacceptable” views can rise to 20-30% of the vote. That isn’t enough to govern, but it is definitely enough to be troublesome if ignored.

  49. CMJ

    “Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems – the main parties – need to really think about how they have screwed it up so bad.”

    Do you mean those parties that between them have the support of about 75% of the electorate who give a preference? The remaining 25% being spread out among a bunch of small, ineffective, unsuccessful parties (in England, at least). In other words, really, really unpopular organisations who, according to the electorate, do not represent their views or wishes.

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