The monthly ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. Topline voting figures are CON 29%(nc), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(-1), Others 11%. A slight reduction in the Labour lead since a month ago, but still a comfortable lead.

For the European elections voting intentions are CON 20%(-2), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 35%(+1), GRN 7%(+2). This would give UKIP a very comfortable victory indeed next week, and see the Liberal Democrats pushed to fifth place (and on a uniform swing they’d probably lose all their MEPs).

With five days to go until the European elections we’re obviously heading into final call territory, but my understanding is that ComRes have probably got another poll still to come before Thursday’s election. European election polls so far are here.

The Sunday Telegraph also has a new European election due tonight, in this case from ICM, and there is due to be an ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday too, as well as the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll. I will update later…

UPDATE: And the ICM European poll is also out. Their topline figures are CON 26%(+4), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 25%(-2). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph last month (ICM did a more recent European poll for the Guardian last weekend, but that was by telephone rather than online). In contrast to the ComRes poll ICM have Labour ahead and the Conservatives and UKIP in a close race for second place.

UPDATE2: I expect some readers will be hoping for some explanation for the gap between these polls. I’m afraid I don’t have a simple one to offer. Some of it might be down to ComRes using a very strict turnout filter, taking only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, something which has tended to help UKIP. ICM’s tables aren’t yet available, so I don’t know for sure what they’ve done with turnout, but if their last online Euro poll is any guide they weighted by turnout (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are counted in full, people who say they are 9/10 certain to vote are counted as only 0.9 of a vote, and so on down). That would still help UKIP, but not as much as a strict 10/10 only policy. However, that really can’t explain the whole of a ten point difference in UKIP support.


125 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 29, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 19”

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  1. That 19% for UKIP is going to frighten a few horses on both sides. What’s the Green score for ComRes?

    How many MEPs would that EU VI translate to?

  2. Stunning UKIP lead and a shocker for the big 3

  3. The Sunday Telegraph European poll is already on the telegraph website – under a headline stating Tories leap ahead of UKip

  4. Why does ICM have such weird polls?

    First week? 11 point labour lead.
    Second week? Slim Tory lead.
    Third week? Slim Labour lead.

  5. @Pressman – It must be debatable by now whether one can refer to the Lib Dems as being part of a “big 3”.

    @Anthony Wells – Did you decide how to class the Ashcroft poll for the polling average?

  6. Meant to quote this from the Telegraph/ICM

    “Labour is still in first place, but down one point to 29 per cent, the Conservatives are up four points to 26 per cent and Ukip has dropped two points to 25 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 per cent. “

  7. Least enjoyable Arsenal win I have ever endured.

    Hull were excellent.

  8. “That 19% for UKIP is going to frighten a few horses on both sides.”

    Not when it’s falling, surely, even if only by a point. Also it seems likely that the Euros are boosting UKIP’s showing in the Westminster polls as well as hitting Labour.

  9. Chris – classed them as a new entrant for now, though I’ll probably review it all at some point in the next six months.

  10. The polls are a result of self fulfilling prophecies…keep saying something for long enough and loud enough and low and behold …guess what?

    it’s like when they say over and over and over that’s going to be a low turnout…guess what?

    sad

  11. I had to chuckle at this snippet in the Telegraph:-
    ” Martin Boon, director of ICM Research, said the volatile polling in recent weeks showed the European elections were wide open. Usually, polls give a pretty clear picture of what’s going to happen at any major election. Not so here. Labour could win, as could the Tories, or maybe Ukip,” he said.

    Ta very much Mr Boon. I’ll stick to reading my tealeaves instead. [doesn’t work too well with teabags but I will give it a go]

  12. R&D

    Agreed & was a shame for Hull that Alex Bruce got injured because until then, he was the best player on the pitch.

  13. It saddens me to say it (again) but when things get exciting close to polling day, the margins of error on polls get forgotten.

    From http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100271902/despite-all-those-so-called-car-crashes-the-ukip-bandwagon-rides-on/
    Tonight the DT has a fraudulent poll which purports to be an opinion poll. It is nothing of the sort. It is an invitation to speculate. It is not objective. It is not scientific. It is completely out of kilter with more legitimate polls
    As I don’t go behind the Telegraph paywall, can anyone please enlighten me as to what that poster meant?

  14. “As I don’t go behind the Telegraph paywall…”

    You should, if only to read the nutty comments after every article. Hardly a paywall, anyway. You get 20 free views before having to switch browser or delete cookies.

  15. I find the telegraph comments to be the most enlightened ones. Each to their own.

    I’ve seen ones on the Guardian saying they wish death on older generations of people in the UK because they disagree with their political views *shudder*

  16. @Dave
    He might be referring to the ICM Wisdom Index.

    I tried adding them to the Wikipedia poll page, they got removed because they are somehow inferior to ‘proper’ polls.

  17. Guardian comments can get pretty nutty too. I wouldn’t describe either lot as enlightened.

  18. @Dave: “can anyone please enlighten me as to what that poster meant?”

    It’s a reference to the ‘wisdom’ poll where people are asked what they think the result will be rather than how they themselves will vote. Not sure why it’s regarded as fraudulent, since the methodology is explained, but presumably the commenter is upset at UKIP scoring just 13.4%.

  19. This is my prediction for the European Elections 2014 seat distribution:

    21 x LAB (a slim 1st with the most votes)
    21 x UKIP (2nd)
    21 x CON (3rd)
    3 x SNP
    2 x GRN
    1 x PC
    1 x LD

    …and of course Northern Irelands x 3

  20. May I make a fairly confident prediction from down here in the South West? (once I’ve got this manure off my wellies). I’m fairly sure there is enough loyal LibDem support to see Graham Watson returned. And you can put money on that.

  21. “The previous ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index survey, published on May 4, showed Labour’s lead cut to just one point. It has now disappeared.”

    By ‘disappeared’ the Telegraph apparently means fallen from 1.0% to 0.7%.

  22. Oops sorry, Telegraph. That should be -0.7% so technically correct.

  23. These polls are a load of rubbish at the moment. EU elections have a very low turn out and I expect that UKIP will receive a lot of protest votes from the other parties. The GE polling is affected by the EU election and I suspect that once it is out of the way, that normal polling will be resumed.

  24. Annoying the DT doesn’t mention the Green figure and I guess until we get ICM tables we won’t know.

    There’s two battles- one between the top 3 and one between the next two plus knowing where that all important threshold percentage is where 4th and 5th have a chance of MEPs.

    I’m not sure how anyone could work out what the percentage of the poll is where the Greens or LD’s have a chance of getting seats:

    Con won last time with 28% of the vote. I guess potentially UKIP could get a higher percentage this time which technically means the threshold might be higher and giving Greens and LDs less chance of nicking the 3rd seat off someone. Equally LDs were on 14% last time so where they took a seat or two last time the threshold for them or the Greens this time will be lower and 16% each for UKIP and Labour should both be higher this time and they (Con and Lab) might grab second or 3rd seats where (Lab and UKIP) did not last time in place of Greens or LDs.

    Plus of course there will be regional differences that don’t show up on these national polls and I would expect the North constituencies and London to have Lab in first place (Tories won North West last time) but maybe with a much lower vote than last time giving some areas more chance of the 4th and 5th party getting in.

  25. @AW

    Simple. Comes is just plain wrong.

  26. @R&D

    Some silverware at long last for the Gooners! The nine year itch is over and Wenger has got the monkey from his back. No longer a specialist in failure!

    Like most neutrals, I was willing the underdogs on, but the sight of the former Birmingham City manager, the increasingly rotund Steve Bruce, gesticulating from the sidelines, prevented me from offering totally unqualified support. Old Mr Potato Head, as we call him at Villa Park, is not one of my favourite figures in football and the memory of him, many years ago, waddling on to the Villa Park pitch and dancing a bovine jig of celebration after a late Birmingham equaliser, is seared in my memory. I still have nightmares about it!

    He also scored two very late goals for United against Sheffield Wednesday that probably denied Villa the league title in 1993.

    The man should be drummed out of the game!! :-)

  27. CB11

    Yes, I have coined a word for him – I call him “Fatty.” Dunno how someone in his position can get like that.

    The gurls had their paws over their eyes at times during the match .

    To be honest I find the whole “failure” thing ridiculous. Are we supposed to think Chelsea and Liverpool and Everton “failed” this season? Seems daft to me.

    Still, glad the lads won and the UK guys will come through I think – just need to stop getting injured.

  28. RHuckle,
    You are the still, quiet,voice of calm.

  29. All the polls released today (European and Westminster) who the same trend. Labour and UKIP dropping a little and the Conservatives either holding steady or increasing a little.

    This supports all the recent polling, albeit with some differing figures, the trend is what is important and that shows at the Westminster level Labour and the Conservatives drawing to a tie. At the European level it also shows Labour and the Tories being very close and UKIP either ahead or tying. Not bad foe the Tories when it is a known phenomenon that around a third of their vote goes to UKIP at European elections but comes back “home” at subsequent real elections. Can the same be said for Labour?

  30. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27456187

    The Tories will need to answer a lot of questions about negotiations and “red lines” come 2015 and it won’t be pretty. I dunno if NI will be on the case but the Barney Mercury will be relentless.

  31. RHuckle – I see your point, but Labour’s falling lead is well established. Also why would the Tory vote hold up or actually increase slightly with the nearing of the Euro elections? I would have thought the sizable Tory euro-skeptic block would drift to UKIP and adversely affect the Tories Westminster polling. Doesn`t seem to be happening.

  32. Right, we’ve had this problem with ComRes Euro polls before. We had one (for C4M) just a few days ago (9-11 May) which had not dissimilar figures. If you look at the following table:

    UKIP 34% / 29% (-5) / 35% / ?

    Lab 24% / 27% (+3) / 24% / ?

    Con 22% / 23% (+1) / 20% / ?

    L/D 8% / 8% (-) / 6% / ?

    Green 5% / 6% (+1) / 7% / ?

    SNP/PC 5% / 5% (-) / 5% / ?

    BNP 1% / 1% (-) / 2% / ?

    Other *% / 1% (+1) / 4% / ?

    The first two columns are the C4M Euro VIs for All respondents expressing a voting intention and saying 10/10 likelihood to vote and for All respondents expressing a voting intention and saying 5-10 likelihood to vote (weighted to turnout values) followed by the difference. As you can see it is quite large but suspect that for an online poll the 5-10 is more reliable (and presumably the vote of someone who gives a lower value of say 6 is weighted to .6 of someone who picks 10)

    The third column is the 10/10 figure from the latest ComRes the tables for which are here:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_18th_May_2014_5837.pdf#page=31

    And the ?s are because ComRes haven’t shown the rating for LTV 5-10 in these tables as they also did for ITN News as well as C4M.

    I suspect that the idea is as you get nearer polling day people are more likely to know if they will vote or not (or have already voted by post). This poll has 49% LTV=10, while C4M had 46% and ITN 39%, so there is something in that. But 49% is actually low for the percentage of an internet panel who actually vote, even though the Euros will probably only have a 35-40% turnout. This is because the apathetic and alienated not only don’t vote, they don’t sign up to online panels either.

    So if you compare like with like, the movement in the ComRes poll isn’t much from the previous ComRes and might be altered considerably if you considered all those who probably will vote.

  33. Telegraph, easily the best edited paper.

  34. UKIP clearly have stupendous momentum.

  35. Roger Mexico

    Pollsters are damned if they do (change methodology) and damned if they don’t!

    One can understand ScotCen sticking to a rather archaic question on Scottish autonomy because it gives comparability over time, but it also means asking somewhat outdated questions which don’t quite match current political reality.

    Similarly, while ICM said last month that they were going to change their indyref methodology to include “likelihood to vote” for tomorrow’s SoS poll, I suspect that everyone (except perhaps Anthony & John Curtice) will ignore that, if the April -> May poll “change” suits their preferred stance.

  36. @Mike: “when it is a known phenomenon …”

    What phenomenon is that? Between the 2004 EU election and the 2005 Westminster election the Tory vote increased by 5.7 points while Labour’s went up by 12.6 points. For 2009 to 2010 the Tory vote went up by 8.4 points and Labour’s by 13.3 points.

  37. CB11

    This is very droll from the BBC footy writer

    “Arsene Wenger has just been doused in some of the sponsor’s bubbly stuff, before the Arsenal players give him celebratory bumps.

    Safe to say that the Hull players would have struggled to do that had they won…”

  38. @R&D

    Are you suggesting that Mr Bruce buys wider trousers that Monsieur Wenger?

  39. This is an interesting article

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100271887/our-political-masters-are-horrified-by-ukip-trouble-is-the-voters-arent/

    It echoes what I have said on here several times – that there are significant numbers of people whose views on a number of issues are not reflected by any of the main 3 parliamentary parties. This is why UKIP are doing so well.

    “But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet” – Chesterton

    People have been waiting for a respectable party that represents down-to-earth views. Now there is one.

    UKIP are not just the right-wing rump of the Tory party. They are attracting many people who have either never voted or who have given up voting Labour, and this is why the polls are so unpredictable with regard to them. The pollsters don’t know how to adjust their raw data.

  40. Old Nat

    Pity for you no Saltire but on London elections the point you have missed is that the turnout is likely to be significantly higher there next Thursday than other parts of the UK which only have Euro elections, or even Euros + 1/3 of the Council. Thus closer to GE turnout. Also to my delight but no perhaps not yours Londoners are nowadays the most diverse, creative, outward-looking, global and non – nationalist section of the electorate. The continued prosperity of all parts of the UK depend on London whose GDP added value per head is well above everywhere else. How London votes has considerably more significance for the well being of Scottish, Welsh, N Irish and English people than New York !

    On a separate issue I think that polls which arbitrarilycount people certain to vote but only prompt on the European elections are going to be wrong when there are simultaneous local elections which will matter more in many areas. Here in Wales I am genuinely worried that we are going to match last years police election debacle when one or entire polling districts failed to trouble the scorer….but I’ m not sure how you report a poll where no one votes. …

  41. @Epiphron

    So they quote single polls showing a Tory lead to make a general point that Tory fortunes are on the rise (when the Tories in both polls are within their usual range)?

    I call it shoddy journalism.

  42. Welsh Borderer

    As someone who routinely looks at the “regional” cross breaks in polls, I have often noted the remarkable similarity between the social attitudes expressed in London and Scottish polls, so your point seems somewhat astray.

    However, I now understand your somewhat Westminster-centric understanding of “importance”. It seems to be based on elections having no intrinsic value in themselves, but merely in their value in your divination process of predicting the Westminster election of 2015.

    Have fun with that (though entrails can be very messy).

  43. It’s an attempt to make the election seem more exciting than it probably will be. Not that I know what will happen of course.

  44. Something I just posted obviously touched the moderation third rail, but the gist of my post was whether Ukip are ‘down to earth’ or ‘respectable’ is very disputable, and nor are they very popular as a party, just with a band of passionate core supporters.

  45. DrunkenScouser

    How do you judge the “popularity” of a party, except by the number of people who vote for them (or say they will in polls)?

    As for “respectable” – what on earth does that mean? That the ladies of the Kippen WRI approve of them?

  46. If anyone fancies a laugh, give this a read. One of the most preposterous pieces I’ve ever read on any political blog.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/17/how-labour-could-win-next-year-without-ed-becoming-pm/

  47. ICM has a poll out the other that had them as the ‘least liked’ and ‘most disliked’ party. Their rating was was -39. Labour were the last unpopular party, with a rating somewhere in the minus single figures if I recall correctly.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/12/icm-poll-ukip-the-least-liked-and-most-disliked-party/

  48. Drunken
    I guess that was aimed at my post. While neither you nor I may agree with all their policies, it is evident that UKIP are able to attract many voters who do not like the main parties or the more extreme alternatives.

    You say “and nor are they very popular as a party, just with a band of passionate core supporters.”. Wouldn’t this apply to all political parties?

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